Carrie Lear (she/her)
@carolinelear.bsky.social
Professor of Earth Science researching past climate and ice sheet dynamics. My own views.
Reposted by Carrie Lear (she/her)
🎞️ After COP30 fire and floods: AMOC shutdown 🔥🌊
Our event on #AMOC shutdown was interrupted by the fire at #COP30 yesterday – but this is an important message so we wanted to make sure you heard it.
▶️ www.youtube.com/watch?v=B-0e...
@rahmstorf.bsky.social @iccinet.bsky.social
Our event on #AMOC shutdown was interrupted by the fire at #COP30 yesterday – but this is an important message so we wanted to make sure you heard it.
▶️ www.youtube.com/watch?v=B-0e...
@rahmstorf.bsky.social @iccinet.bsky.social
After COP30 Fire and Floods: AMOC Shutdown
YouTube video by International Cryosphere Climate Initiative
www.youtube.com
November 21, 2025 at 11:06 PM
🎞️ After COP30 fire and floods: AMOC shutdown 🔥🌊
Our event on #AMOC shutdown was interrupted by the fire at #COP30 yesterday – but this is an important message so we wanted to make sure you heard it.
▶️ www.youtube.com/watch?v=B-0e...
@rahmstorf.bsky.social @iccinet.bsky.social
Our event on #AMOC shutdown was interrupted by the fire at #COP30 yesterday – but this is an important message so we wanted to make sure you heard it.
▶️ www.youtube.com/watch?v=B-0e...
@rahmstorf.bsky.social @iccinet.bsky.social
Reposted by Carrie Lear (she/her)
The Greenlandification of Antarctica
Antarctica is beginning to behave more like Greenland, with surface melt, ice dynamics, and climate feedbacks in Antarctica exhibiting "Greenland-like” traits, which have major implications for sea-level rise projections.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Antarctica is beginning to behave more like Greenland, with surface melt, ice dynamics, and climate feedbacks in Antarctica exhibiting "Greenland-like” traits, which have major implications for sea-level rise projections.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
The Greenlandification of Antarctica - Nature Geoscience
Climate and ice sheet processes in Antarctica increasingly reflect those observed earlier in Greenland. Applying process insights from Greenland can improve projections of future Antarctic ice and climate behaviour.
www.nature.com
October 5, 2025 at 5:40 AM
The Greenlandification of Antarctica
Antarctica is beginning to behave more like Greenland, with surface melt, ice dynamics, and climate feedbacks in Antarctica exhibiting "Greenland-like” traits, which have major implications for sea-level rise projections.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Antarctica is beginning to behave more like Greenland, with surface melt, ice dynamics, and climate feedbacks in Antarctica exhibiting "Greenland-like” traits, which have major implications for sea-level rise projections.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Reposted by Carrie Lear (she/her)
Reposted by Carrie Lear (she/her)
🧵🧪 In session on policy and societal requirements at the Royal Society discussion meeting today, Prof Hans-Otto Pörtner, former Co-Chair of the IPCC Working Group II, stated that he thinks keeping global temperature rise "below 1.5 [°C above pre-industrial] is probably now out of reach".
September 30, 2025 at 5:08 PM
🧵🧪 In session on policy and societal requirements at the Royal Society discussion meeting today, Prof Hans-Otto Pörtner, former Co-Chair of the IPCC Working Group II, stated that he thinks keeping global temperature rise "below 1.5 [°C above pre-industrial] is probably now out of reach".
Reposted by Carrie Lear (she/her)
This would be laughable if it wasn't so serious: yet again, the Tories are claiming that we can get "all our oil and gas" from the North Sea and that we should be doing even more to support the industry to extract.
There are several reasons why we should treat this with maximum scepticism:
There are several reasons why we should treat this with maximum scepticism:
August 31, 2025 at 5:25 PM
This would be laughable if it wasn't so serious: yet again, the Tories are claiming that we can get "all our oil and gas" from the North Sea and that we should be doing even more to support the industry to extract.
There are several reasons why we should treat this with maximum scepticism:
There are several reasons why we should treat this with maximum scepticism:
New paper! Check out @zifeiyang.bsky.social gorgeous data from M2 glaciation (3.3Ma) - stunning Melonis Mg/Ca temperature records allow us to be confident about ice growth, but this was not like later glaciations following iNHG, we think gateways were more important: www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Major sea level fall during the Pliocene M2 glaciation - Nature Communications
This study refines benthic foraminiferal Mg/Ca paleothermometry to reduce uncertainties to ±0.2-0.3 °C, which was then applied in Atlantic and Pacific sediment cores to reconstruct Mid-Pliocene M2 gla...
www.nature.com
August 18, 2025 at 11:11 AM
New paper! Check out @zifeiyang.bsky.social gorgeous data from M2 glaciation (3.3Ma) - stunning Melonis Mg/Ca temperature records allow us to be confident about ice growth, but this was not like later glaciations following iNHG, we think gateways were more important: www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Reposted by Carrie Lear (she/her)
The budget proposal eliminates:
NOAA’s Oceanic and Atmospheric Research office
Stops funding regional climate data, climate competitive research or sea grant programs
Severely defunds the Natl Ocean Service & the NMFS
www.cnn.com/2025/04/11/c...
NOAA’s Oceanic and Atmospheric Research office
Stops funding regional climate data, climate competitive research or sea grant programs
Severely defunds the Natl Ocean Service & the NMFS
www.cnn.com/2025/04/11/c...
Trump’s draft budget eviscerates weather and climate tracking and research | CNN
The move would devastate weather and climate research even as weather is becoming more erratic and extreme, and would cripple the US industries — including agriculture — that depend on free, accurate ...
www.cnn.com
April 11, 2025 at 5:20 PM
The budget proposal eliminates:
NOAA’s Oceanic and Atmospheric Research office
Stops funding regional climate data, climate competitive research or sea grant programs
Severely defunds the Natl Ocean Service & the NMFS
www.cnn.com/2025/04/11/c...
NOAA’s Oceanic and Atmospheric Research office
Stops funding regional climate data, climate competitive research or sea grant programs
Severely defunds the Natl Ocean Service & the NMFS
www.cnn.com/2025/04/11/c...
Reposted by Carrie Lear (she/her)
📣 Our new paper is out in Nature Communications!
Subglacial water—often overlooked—can change sea-level rise projections by up to a factor of three. Big implications for how we model Antarctica.
🔗 www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Subglacial water—often overlooked—can change sea-level rise projections by up to a factor of three. Big implications for how we model Antarctica.
🔗 www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Subglacial water amplifies Antarctic contributions to sea-level rise - Nature Communications
Hidden water beneath Antarctica’s ice can accelerate ice loss, potentially raising sea levels by over 2 meters by 2300. These findings highlight the urgent need to incorporate evolving subglacial hydr...
www.nature.com
April 7, 2025 at 11:22 AM
📣 Our new paper is out in Nature Communications!
Subglacial water—often overlooked—can change sea-level rise projections by up to a factor of three. Big implications for how we model Antarctica.
🔗 www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Subglacial water—often overlooked—can change sea-level rise projections by up to a factor of three. Big implications for how we model Antarctica.
🔗 www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Reposted by Carrie Lear (she/her)
You want to know about this NASA Sea Level Projection Tool, which allows you to visualize and download the sea level projection data from the IPCC 6th Assessment Report (AR6).
IPCC AR6 Sea Level Projection Tool
Visualize and download global and local sea level projections from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report.
sealevel.nasa.gov
March 10, 2025 at 8:22 PM
You want to know about this NASA Sea Level Projection Tool, which allows you to visualize and download the sea level projection data from the IPCC 6th Assessment Report (AR6).
Reposted by Carrie Lear (she/her)
🧪🌊 🧵 As the minimum in Antarctic sea-ice extent has now dipped below 2 million km² for the third year in a row, it is looking increasingly like this is the new normal. In the 10 years up to 2015 the minimum extent averaged more than 3 million km².
Graph from @nsidc.bsky.social
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Graph from @nsidc.bsky.social
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March 2, 2025 at 5:01 PM
🧪🌊 🧵 As the minimum in Antarctic sea-ice extent has now dipped below 2 million km² for the third year in a row, it is looking increasingly like this is the new normal. In the 10 years up to 2015 the minimum extent averaged more than 3 million km².
Graph from @nsidc.bsky.social
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Graph from @nsidc.bsky.social
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Reposted by Carrie Lear (she/her)
This paper by Barker et al resolves many details about how Earth’s orbital wobbles caused glacial cycles of expansion & contraction of ice sheets over the last ~800,000 years 🧵 ⚒️🧪 1/11 www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
Distinct roles for precession, obliquity, and eccentricity in Pleistocene 100-kyr glacial cycles
Identifying the specific roles of precession, obliquity, and eccentricity in glacial-interglacial transitions is hindered by imprecise age control. We circumvent this problem by focusing on the morpho...
www.science.org
February 28, 2025 at 5:31 PM
This paper by Barker et al resolves many details about how Earth’s orbital wobbles caused glacial cycles of expansion & contraction of ice sheets over the last ~800,000 years 🧵 ⚒️🧪 1/11 www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
Reposted by Carrie Lear (she/her)
A new special issue of Science highlights research on Earth’s frozen places—from the Arctic to the Antarctic—and how it’s changing due to climate change and the geopolitical challenges this important work faces.
Learn more: https://scim.ag/4jPYRID
Learn more: https://scim.ag/4jPYRID
February 6, 2025 at 7:05 PM
A new special issue of Science highlights research on Earth’s frozen places—from the Arctic to the Antarctic—and how it’s changing due to climate change and the geopolitical challenges this important work faces.
Learn more: https://scim.ag/4jPYRID
Learn more: https://scim.ag/4jPYRID
Reposted by Carrie Lear (she/her)
Some people on this and other social media platforms have been claiming that something dramatic is about to happen at Thwaites Glacier, and implying that this will result of an abrupt rise is sea level within a few years. So what's really going on? 🧵🧪
January 26, 2025 at 8:55 AM
Some people on this and other social media platforms have been claiming that something dramatic is about to happen at Thwaites Glacier, and implying that this will result of an abrupt rise is sea level within a few years. So what's really going on? 🧵🧪
Reposted by Carrie Lear (she/her)
Current policies & NDCs take the world to 2-3C in 2100, across a range of studies.
The biggest gap is strengthening climate action to ensure net zero pledges are met, leading to <2C in 2100.
@hausfath.bsky.social
journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
The biggest gap is strengthening climate action to ensure net zero pledges are met, leading to <2C in 2100.
@hausfath.bsky.social
journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
January 16, 2025 at 7:37 AM
Current policies & NDCs take the world to 2-3C in 2100, across a range of studies.
The biggest gap is strengthening climate action to ensure net zero pledges are met, leading to <2C in 2100.
@hausfath.bsky.social
journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
The biggest gap is strengthening climate action to ensure net zero pledges are met, leading to <2C in 2100.
@hausfath.bsky.social
journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
Reposted by Carrie Lear (she/her)
We all think plastic pollution is a problem, and it is. In the nearly 70 years between 1950 and 2019, the world produced a total of ~9.5 billion tonnes of plastic.
But all the plastic we have EVER produced weighs as much as CO₂ we emitted into the atmosphere during the first three months of 2024!
But all the plastic we have EVER produced weighs as much as CO₂ we emitted into the atmosphere during the first three months of 2024!
November 29, 2024 at 6:44 PM
We all think plastic pollution is a problem, and it is. In the nearly 70 years between 1950 and 2019, the world produced a total of ~9.5 billion tonnes of plastic.
But all the plastic we have EVER produced weighs as much as CO₂ we emitted into the atmosphere during the first three months of 2024!
But all the plastic we have EVER produced weighs as much as CO₂ we emitted into the atmosphere during the first three months of 2024!
Reposted by Carrie Lear (she/her)
In our warming world there is an increasing chance of extreme rainfall events and flash flooding
For every 1C rise in temperature the atmosphere can hold 7% more moisture...
For every 1C rise in temperature the atmosphere can hold 7% more moisture...
Over the weekend, Storm Bert brought large rainfall accumulations. Some places saw in excess of 130mm in 24 hours & wind gusts of over 75 miles per hour in some exposed areas.
What influence does climate change have on extreme rainfall in the UK?
Find out more:
www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/cli...
What influence does climate change have on extreme rainfall in the UK?
Find out more:
www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/cli...
November 25, 2024 at 4:50 PM
In our warming world there is an increasing chance of extreme rainfall events and flash flooding
For every 1C rise in temperature the atmosphere can hold 7% more moisture...
For every 1C rise in temperature the atmosphere can hold 7% more moisture...
Reposted by Carrie Lear (she/her)
Please allow me to re-share my rough sketch of some advanced carbon capture technology
November 22, 2024 at 11:20 AM
Please allow me to re-share my rough sketch of some advanced carbon capture technology
Reposted by Carrie Lear (she/her)
It's the extremes that will get us. A hotter world has much hotter heat waves.
www.theguardian.com/environment/...
www.theguardian.com/environment/...
Climate crisis to blame for dozens of ‘impossible’ heatwaves, studies reveal
Exclusive: Analyses are stark evidence of how global heating is already supercharging deadly weather beyond anything ever experienced by humanity
www.theguardian.com
November 18, 2024 at 6:27 AM
It's the extremes that will get us. A hotter world has much hotter heat waves.
www.theguardian.com/environment/...
www.theguardian.com/environment/...
Reposted by Carrie Lear (she/her)
Changes in the #PolarRegions will affect everyone. Understanding and predicting this change needs commitment and talent; and that needs a supportive and inclusive community. Wishing everyone a happy #PolarPride as part of a wider celebration of #DiversityInPolarScience 🐻❄️🐧🥶🏳️🌈
November 18, 2024 at 7:43 AM
Changes in the #PolarRegions will affect everyone. Understanding and predicting this change needs commitment and talent; and that needs a supportive and inclusive community. Wishing everyone a happy #PolarPride as part of a wider celebration of #DiversityInPolarScience 🐻❄️🐧🥶🏳️🌈
Reposted by Carrie Lear (she/her)
Please share - PhD with me, #lnadler and BAS
colleagues Lloyd Peck, Gabi Stowasser and Ryan Saunders at unisouthampton.
- Fish metabolism across latitudes - lovely team, cool science and great fish! Please contact me, details: tinyurl.com/mhfp8f2h #MarineLife #Science
colleagues Lloyd Peck, Gabi Stowasser and Ryan Saunders at unisouthampton.
- Fish metabolism across latitudes - lovely team, cool science and great fish! Please contact me, details: tinyurl.com/mhfp8f2h #MarineLife #Science
October 25, 2024 at 6:24 PM
Please share - PhD with me, #lnadler and BAS
colleagues Lloyd Peck, Gabi Stowasser and Ryan Saunders at unisouthampton.
- Fish metabolism across latitudes - lovely team, cool science and great fish! Please contact me, details: tinyurl.com/mhfp8f2h #MarineLife #Science
colleagues Lloyd Peck, Gabi Stowasser and Ryan Saunders at unisouthampton.
- Fish metabolism across latitudes - lovely team, cool science and great fish! Please contact me, details: tinyurl.com/mhfp8f2h #MarineLife #Science
Reposted by Carrie Lear (she/her)
The Met Office has been working hard to make more of our weather and climate data available for interest or research. I’ll share some links in a thread 🧪First up is our climate data portal climatedataportal.metoffice.gov.uk
The Met Office climate data portal
Explore and download observed and projected climate data from the Met Office.
climatedataportal.metoffice.gov.uk
July 26, 2024 at 11:45 AM
The Met Office has been working hard to make more of our weather and climate data available for interest or research. I’ll share some links in a thread 🧪First up is our climate data portal climatedataportal.metoffice.gov.uk
Reposted by Carrie Lear (she/her)
While it's very funny to watch The Metals Company whine about the deep ocean oxygen discovery they helped fund, I worry that this only the start. Climate tech startups want science to support their business case, but many are going to discover that science is about reality, not their bottom line
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July 26, 2024 at 9:37 AM
While it's very funny to watch The Metals Company whine about the deep ocean oxygen discovery they helped fund, I worry that this only the start. Climate tech startups want science to support their business case, but many are going to discover that science is about reality, not their bottom line
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Reposted by Carrie Lear (she/her)
July 26, 2024 at 6:07 PM
Reposted by Carrie Lear (she/her)
Excellent piece from the Australian Sydney Morning Herald that puts the Chinese green industrial revolution in a balanced context and language most can absorb. Excellent journalism www.smh.com.au/environment/...
‘It’s good news’: Scientists suspect history about to be made in China
Evidence is mounting that some time over the past few months, China’s greenhouse gas emissions peaked. If so, it is likely that a global decline has begun.
www.smh.com.au
July 16, 2024 at 1:05 AM
Excellent piece from the Australian Sydney Morning Herald that puts the Chinese green industrial revolution in a balanced context and language most can absorb. Excellent journalism www.smh.com.au/environment/...