Bruce Bradbury
@brucebradbury.bsky.social
An Australian economist writing on social and economic policy and outcomes.
https://www.unsw.edu.au/staff/bruce-bradbury
https://www.unsw.edu.au/staff/bruce-bradbury
Reposted by Bruce Bradbury
This is terrifying.
"[AI agents] can... infer a researcher's latent hypotheses and produce data that artificially confirms them."
...
"We can no longer trust that survey responses are coming from real people" [email protected]
"[AI agents] can... infer a researcher's latent hypotheses and produce data that artificially confirms them."
...
"We can no longer trust that survey responses are coming from real people" [email protected]
November 18, 2025 at 9:03 PM
This is terrifying.
"[AI agents] can... infer a researcher's latent hypotheses and produce data that artificially confirms them."
...
"We can no longer trust that survey responses are coming from real people" [email protected]
"[AI agents] can... infer a researcher's latent hypotheses and produce data that artificially confirms them."
...
"We can no longer trust that survey responses are coming from real people" [email protected]
How to not sound like a LLM - and write something interesting.
By far one of the most impactful readings of the semester in "Writing with Robots" has been @johnrgallagher.bsky.social's piece on LLM’s propensity to substitute lists for argumentation—students are suddenly *noticing* the lists everywhere & engaging them critically
The Curious Question of AI-written Lists: Or, LLMs are Genre Machines
Ending with a solution for teaching writing
meresophistry.substack.com
November 17, 2025 at 9:51 AM
How to not sound like a LLM - and write something interesting.
Reposted by Bruce Bradbury
Exposure to the Low Income Housing Tax Credit during childhood improves mother's health and socioeconomic status at the time of first birth as well as leading to improved infant health outcomes, from Janet Currie and Jessica Van Parys www.nber.org/papers/w34464
November 15, 2025 at 10:01 PM
Exposure to the Low Income Housing Tax Credit during childhood improves mother's health and socioeconomic status at the time of first birth as well as leading to improved infant health outcomes, from Janet Currie and Jessica Van Parys www.nber.org/papers/w34464
e61 have a report arguing for a broadening of the Australian GST tax base. However, looking at variation across expenditure levels is misleading because of 'shopping variability'. People with high expenditures tend to be those who have just purchased consumer durables.
e61.in/are-gst-exem...
e61.in/are-gst-exem...
November 11, 2025 at 11:21 PM
e61 have a report arguing for a broadening of the Australian GST tax base. However, looking at variation across expenditure levels is misleading because of 'shopping variability'. People with high expenditures tend to be those who have just purchased consumer durables.
e61.in/are-gst-exem...
e61.in/are-gst-exem...
Reposted by Bruce Bradbury
Gough raised unemployment benefits to their highest level relative to poverty - then Fraser (and his treasurer John Howard) fucked it up as soon as they could.
Hawke/Keating repaired some of the damage... then Howard fucked it up for good
thepoint.com.au/opinions/251...
Hawke/Keating repaired some of the damage... then Howard fucked it up for good
thepoint.com.au/opinions/251...
November 11, 2025 at 12:45 AM
Gough raised unemployment benefits to their highest level relative to poverty - then Fraser (and his treasurer John Howard) fucked it up as soon as they could.
Hawke/Keating repaired some of the damage... then Howard fucked it up for good
thepoint.com.au/opinions/251...
Hawke/Keating repaired some of the damage... then Howard fucked it up for good
thepoint.com.au/opinions/251...
Reposted by Bruce Bradbury
This is the kind of outcome the National Electricity Market, combined with smart meters and retail competition, was supposed to deliver. Instead, the government has had to impose it. Yet another patch on a failed system #auspol
Australian households to get free electricity three hours a day
Saying there is enough solar power for everyone in the daytime, the federal government will direct retailers to provide three hours of free power every day to consumers.
www.abc.net.au
November 6, 2025 at 12:44 AM
This is the kind of outcome the National Electricity Market, combined with smart meters and retail competition, was supposed to deliver. Instead, the government has had to impose it. Yet another patch on a failed system #auspol
"People are not rebelling against economic elites, but rather against cognitive elites... Seeing things in this way makes it easier to understand why people get so worked up over seemingly minor issues, like language policing."
josephheath.substack.com/p/populism-f...
josephheath.substack.com/p/populism-f...
Populism fast and slow
It is natural that a person who is both concerned by the rise of right-wing populism and possessed of a bookish disposition might turn to the academic political science literature in search of a bette...
josephheath.substack.com
October 20, 2025 at 1:46 AM
"People are not rebelling against economic elites, but rather against cognitive elites... Seeing things in this way makes it easier to understand why people get so worked up over seemingly minor issues, like language policing."
josephheath.substack.com/p/populism-f...
josephheath.substack.com/p/populism-f...
I'll be talking about Australian poverty trends tomorrow:
October 12, 2025 at 10:30 PM
I'll be talking about Australian poverty trends tomorrow:
This doesn't necessarily mean that older people are less happy. For the average person, they have less life satisfaction as they age. But the most unhappy ones die off - leaving the 'happy' ones behind.
Life satisfaction mostly declines with age. Previous findings (esp. the famous U-shaped age-SWB trajectory) were artifacts of misspecified models. doi.org/10.1093/esr/...
September 30, 2025 at 1:29 AM
This doesn't necessarily mean that older people are less happy. For the average person, they have less life satisfaction as they age. But the most unhappy ones die off - leaving the 'happy' ones behind.
Reposted by Bruce Bradbury
At some point people need to learn that the poverty rate is mostly about the safety net or lack thereof and not the economy. The economy was doing historically well, real wages rising for the first time in decades, etc. And poverty rose because pandemic safety policies expired.
A new Census Bureau report establishes that poverty increased over the course of the Biden administration.
The data is yet another rebuke to the politicians and commentators who insisted economic conditions under Joe Biden were great.
The data is yet another rebuke to the politicians and commentators who insisted economic conditions under Joe Biden were great.
It’s Official: Poverty Got Worse Under Joe Biden
A new Census Bureau report establishes that poverty increased over the course of the Biden administration. The data is yet another rebuke to the politicians and commentators who insisted economic conditions under Joe Biden were great.
jacobin.com
September 25, 2025 at 1:42 AM
At some point people need to learn that the poverty rate is mostly about the safety net or lack thereof and not the economy. The economy was doing historically well, real wages rising for the first time in decades, etc. And poverty rose because pandemic safety policies expired.
Unfinished business: 50 years after Henderson (14 October 2025). Online panel discussion on the trajectory of Australian poverty and policy since Henderson's landmark report. Panellists: Cassandra Goldie, Bruce Bradbury, Kay Cook, Jeremy Poxon www.eventbrite.com.au/e/unfinished...
Unfinished Business: 50 Years After Henderson
An initiative of the Australian Social Policy Association and the Australian Journal of Social Issues, as part of Anti-Poverty Week.
www.eventbrite.com.au
September 25, 2025 at 2:27 AM
Unfinished business: 50 years after Henderson (14 October 2025). Online panel discussion on the trajectory of Australian poverty and policy since Henderson's landmark report. Panellists: Cassandra Goldie, Bruce Bradbury, Kay Cook, Jeremy Poxon www.eventbrite.com.au/e/unfinished...
Reposted by Bruce Bradbury
More evidence, on top of Baby's First Years experiment, that cash alone in early childhood does not improve children's early developmental trajectory.
In contrast, there is strong evidence that policies that improve children's care experiences do improve their early development & adult outcomes.
In contrast, there is strong evidence that policies that improve children's care experiences do improve their early development & adult outcomes.
Even zooming in on poorer groups who are more likely to see larger income falls due to the policy, we still see no evidence of adverse effects on school readiness.
September 24, 2025 at 12:26 PM
More evidence, on top of Baby's First Years experiment, that cash alone in early childhood does not improve children's early developmental trajectory.
In contrast, there is strong evidence that policies that improve children's care experiences do improve their early development & adult outcomes.
In contrast, there is strong evidence that policies that improve children's care experiences do improve their early development & adult outcomes.
"it is horribly bad news for the products of our education system. In order to be productive with AI, they need to obtain skills and experience that appear to come from learning by doing, except that they may not have the opportunities to ‘do.’ Second, wage dispersion is going to increase further"
If AI and workers were strong complements, what would we see?, by @joshgans open.substack.com/pub/joshuaga... Does the latest data tell us AI is a substitute for human work? Nope. Is that comforting? Also nope. My comments on @erikbryn and co. (and @Noahpinion
If AI and workers were strong complements, what would we see?
The answer is pretty much what the initial data is showing
open.substack.com
August 31, 2025 at 4:48 AM
"it is horribly bad news for the products of our education system. In order to be productive with AI, they need to obtain skills and experience that appear to come from learning by doing, except that they may not have the opportunities to ‘do.’ Second, wage dispersion is going to increase further"
Crisis in Indonesia: "This is not yet about Prabowo. ... for the time being, this movement has been directed at the parliamentarians and the police."
I have tried my very hardest to make this read about Indonesia's last 48 hours as accessible and easy to digest as possible. The goal here is that there is NO assumed knowledge (except for Jokowi, i think I always assume him sorry)
darimulut.substack.com/p/indonesia-...
darimulut.substack.com/p/indonesia-...
🇮🇩 Indonesia shakes as protests turn to police violence and death
There's no coming back from this one
darimulut.substack.com
August 30, 2025 at 11:26 AM
Crisis in Indonesia: "This is not yet about Prabowo. ... for the time being, this movement has been directed at the parliamentarians and the police."
Reposted by Bruce Bradbury
Paul Krugman's substack series on Inequality is now all up on the Stone Center website:
stonecenter.gc.cuny.edu/tag/people-p...
(originally on his substack: paulkrugman.substack.com)
stonecenter.gc.cuny.edu/tag/people-p...
(originally on his substack: paulkrugman.substack.com)
Paul Krugman Archives - Stone Center on Socio-Economic Inequality
stonecenter.gc.cuny.edu
August 21, 2025 at 11:15 PM
Paul Krugman's substack series on Inequality is now all up on the Stone Center website:
stonecenter.gc.cuny.edu/tag/people-p...
(originally on his substack: paulkrugman.substack.com)
stonecenter.gc.cuny.edu/tag/people-p...
(originally on his substack: paulkrugman.substack.com)
Exactly. There was tendency in policy research to think that longitudinal data would solve all our causal questions. I think (hope?) we are well past this now.
It's like an association, but more causal.
This reasoning is very prevalent in psych as well (in particular when it comes to "lagged effects", aka lagged associations, and "within-person associations") which is why we wrote a paper about it:
journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
This reasoning is very prevalent in psych as well (in particular when it comes to "lagged effects", aka lagged associations, and "within-person associations") which is why we wrote a paper about it:
journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
August 21, 2025 at 6:56 AM
Exactly. There was tendency in policy research to think that longitudinal data would solve all our causal questions. I think (hope?) we are well past this now.
"the Australian government [should] establish an open, transparent and rigorous process to develop an official poverty measurement framework as soon as possible." Our paper in the latest issue of the Australian Economic Review onlinelibrary.wiley.com/toc/14678462...
Fifty Years Beyond the Henderson Inquiry: Rethinking Poverty Measurement for Australia: Australian Economic Review: Vol 58, No S1
Click on the title to browse this issue
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
August 21, 2025 at 1:07 AM
"the Australian government [should] establish an open, transparent and rigorous process to develop an official poverty measurement framework as soon as possible." Our paper in the latest issue of the Australian Economic Review onlinelibrary.wiley.com/toc/14678462...
Reposted by Bruce Bradbury
Reposted by Bruce Bradbury
Record low welfare receipt-amongst working-age Australians = 'generation of slackers' www.aph.gov.au/About_Parlia...
August 19, 2025 at 12:51 AM
Record low welfare receipt-amongst working-age Australians = 'generation of slackers' www.aph.gov.au/About_Parlia...
"Until we have the resources to properly feed and educate all our children, we shouldn’t worry that we are having too few" @johnquiggin.bsky.social open.substack.com/pub/johnquig...
If something can’t go on forever, it will stop
A pessimistic account of the world’s population future offers no good reasons to panic about low birth rates
open.substack.com
August 15, 2025 at 4:31 AM
"Until we have the resources to properly feed and educate all our children, we shouldn’t worry that we are having too few" @johnquiggin.bsky.social open.substack.com/pub/johnquig...
Reposted by Bruce Bradbury
Since search is dead, how soon do you think Google Scholar is headed for the Google Graveyard? I'm betting it's soon, and academia is NOT prepared
Google Scholar Is Doomed
Academia built entire careers on a free Google service with zero guarantees. What could go wrong?
hannahshelley.neocities.org
August 13, 2025 at 1:28 AM
Since search is dead, how soon do you think Google Scholar is headed for the Google Graveyard? I'm betting it's soon, and academia is NOT prepared
Two new post doc positions studying wealth and poverty at the Stone Center at CUNY (New York). A fantastic opportunity! cuny.jobs/new-york-ny/...
cuny.jobs/new-york-ny/...
cuny.jobs/new-york-ny/...
Jobs | City University of New York
cuny.jobs
August 6, 2025 at 11:04 PM
Two new post doc positions studying wealth and poverty at the Stone Center at CUNY (New York). A fantastic opportunity! cuny.jobs/new-york-ny/...
cuny.jobs/new-york-ny/...
cuny.jobs/new-york-ny/...
Australian living cost indices: "Living costs for households whose main source of income is government payments recorded the strongest quarterly rise in living costs". Mainly due to ending of energy rebates. www.abs.gov.au/statistics/e...
August 6, 2025 at 2:01 AM
Australian living cost indices: "Living costs for households whose main source of income is government payments recorded the strongest quarterly rise in living costs". Mainly due to ending of energy rebates. www.abs.gov.au/statistics/e...
Reposted by Bruce Bradbury
Strange article in the Oz claiming DSS incoming gov brief included an 'extraordinary bureaucratic plea to bring welfare under control'. Article focuses on the increase in long-term JobSeeker recipients but suggests this is linked to concerns over spending www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/polit...
August 5, 2025 at 2:11 AM
Strange article in the Oz claiming DSS incoming gov brief included an 'extraordinary bureaucratic plea to bring welfare under control'. Article focuses on the increase in long-term JobSeeker recipients but suggests this is linked to concerns over spending www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/polit...