@backcast.bsky.social
Geo-politics | technology | strategy | intelligence
Reposted
"China is worrying about its own supply chain, worrying about its own sustainability in terms of its economic resilience."
Yu Jie on China's key priorities going into 2026.
Watch in full➡️ https://bit.ly/4qwKdJ7
Yu Jie on China's key priorities going into 2026.
Watch in full➡️ https://bit.ly/4qwKdJ7
January 25, 2026 at 7:00 PM
"China is worrying about its own supply chain, worrying about its own sustainability in terms of its economic resilience."
Yu Jie on China's key priorities going into 2026.
Watch in full➡️ https://bit.ly/4qwKdJ7
Yu Jie on China's key priorities going into 2026.
Watch in full➡️ https://bit.ly/4qwKdJ7
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We need to get out good, verified information to the public as rapidly as possible, so counteract populist, conspiratorial, and authoritarian narratives that are produced by systems that work well in our modern information environment.
January 25, 2026 at 9:26 AM
We need to get out good, verified information to the public as rapidly as possible, so counteract populist, conspiratorial, and authoritarian narratives that are produced by systems that work well in our modern information environment.
Reposted
That means equipping people who believe the truth still matters and the powerful need to be held to account with the skills, tools, and methodologies needed, making sure they're spread far and wide, and supporting networks and communities.
January 25, 2026 at 9:27 AM
That means equipping people who believe the truth still matters and the powerful need to be held to account with the skills, tools, and methodologies needed, making sure they're spread far and wide, and supporting networks and communities.
Reposted
This isn't a crisis we fact-check our way out of, we need to build something bigger and more radical to resist the tide of authoritarianism engulfing our democracies. We can't wait for institutions to act, it's up to us to organise.
January 25, 2026 at 9:29 AM
This isn't a crisis we fact-check our way out of, we need to build something bigger and more radical to resist the tide of authoritarianism engulfing our democracies. We can't wait for institutions to act, it's up to us to organise.
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Our analysis at @bellingcat.com on the killing of Alex Pretti breaks down the video evidence.
He never reached for his gun.
Agents sprayed/tackled him while his hands were up.
He was disarmed before he was shot.
The first shot came from an agent firing at him.
www.bellingcat.com/news/2026/01...
He never reached for his gun.
Agents sprayed/tackled him while his hands were up.
He was disarmed before he was shot.
The first shot came from an agent firing at him.
www.bellingcat.com/news/2026/01...
Alex Pretti: Analysing Footage of Minneapolis CBP Shooting - bellingcat
Bellingcat has analysed video of the shooting of Alex Pretti in Minneapolis. The footage appears to contradict statements made by the Department of Homeland Security.
www.bellingcat.com
January 25, 2026 at 8:08 PM
Our analysis at @bellingcat.com on the killing of Alex Pretti breaks down the video evidence.
He never reached for his gun.
Agents sprayed/tackled him while his hands were up.
He was disarmed before he was shot.
The first shot came from an agent firing at him.
www.bellingcat.com/news/2026/01...
He never reached for his gun.
Agents sprayed/tackled him while his hands were up.
He was disarmed before he was shot.
The first shot came from an agent firing at him.
www.bellingcat.com/news/2026/01...
Reposted
China's new embassy in London has renewed the debate around the threat posed by China, but focusing on it risks obscuring a more consequential challenge — China’s invisible leverage. https://bit.ly/3YV0onn
Starmer’s China visit is the big story – but Beijing’s invisible leverage warrants greater scrutiny
Keir Starmer’s upcoming China visit and the UK’s approval of China’s new ‘mega-embassy’ have dominated headlines. But more attention should be paid to Beijing’s less visible levers of influence.
www.chathamhouse.org
January 25, 2026 at 5:00 AM
China's new embassy in London has renewed the debate around the threat posed by China, but focusing on it risks obscuring a more consequential challenge — China’s invisible leverage. https://bit.ly/3YV0onn
Reposted
In case you missed it:
Making sense of the madness. New post on my Brexit & Brexitism Blog. Analysis of the international and domestic implications of the ‘Greenland crisis’, including how the ‘Carney doctrine’ could offer a way forward for post-Brexit Britain: chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com/2026/01/maki...
January 24, 2026 at 10:03 AM
In case you missed it:
Reposted
French prosecutors say Russia-linked tanker 'Grinch' under investigation after interception in western Mediterranean.
Russian ‘shadow fleet' tanker diverted to French port by naval forces
French prosecutors say Russia-linked tanker 'Grinch' under investigation after interception in western Mediterranean.
www.aljazeera.com
January 24, 2026 at 3:00 AM
French prosecutors say Russia-linked tanker 'Grinch' under investigation after interception in western Mediterranean.
Reposted
China’s dominance of global drone supply chains has become strategically indispensable to both Russia and Ukraine, revealing a new form of power rooted in civilian technology.
China’s Drone War in Ukraine
China’s dominance of global drone supply chains has become strategically indispensable to both Russia and Ukraine, revealing a new form of power rooted in civilian technology.
buff.ly
January 23, 2026 at 11:30 PM
China’s dominance of global drone supply chains has become strategically indispensable to both Russia and Ukraine, revealing a new form of power rooted in civilian technology.
Reposted
🧵 @jburnmurdoch.ft.com is spot on about the conditions in his FT piece. Liberal democracy held it together thanks to growth, good demographics, and the promise of a better future. Those days are gone, and that’s the "why" behind the erosion. However...
Democratic politicians have, though, pursued growth in GDP at the expense of other values. One response to @jburnmurdoch.ft.com pessimistic scenario is refocus on those values, combined with egalitarianism, sufficiency and quality of life. Not "it's the economy, stupid" but "it's the the society"
Is liberal democracy in terminal decline?
The old system worked under a set of conditions that are no longer present
www.ft.com
January 23, 2026 at 9:07 AM
🧵 @jburnmurdoch.ft.com is spot on about the conditions in his FT piece. Liberal democracy held it together thanks to growth, good demographics, and the promise of a better future. Those days are gone, and that’s the "why" behind the erosion. However...
Reposted
Recent reports suggest that hundreds of Africans have been lured to Russia under false job promises and subsequently sent to the front line in Ukraine after receiving only a few days of basic training.
Young Africans Are Being Lured Into Russia’s War Machine
The Kremlin may be using Africans as suicide bombers in Ukraine, reports suggest.
foreignpolicy.com
January 24, 2026 at 12:30 AM
Recent reports suggest that hundreds of Africans have been lured to Russia under false job promises and subsequently sent to the front line in Ukraine after receiving only a few days of basic training.
Reposted
"I think Xi Jinping, when he looks at the world around him, sees a place beset by threat, especially from the West."
James Kynge on the worldview guiding China's foreign policy.
Watch in full➡️ https://bit.ly/4qwKdJ7
James Kynge on the worldview guiding China's foreign policy.
Watch in full➡️ https://bit.ly/4qwKdJ7
January 23, 2026 at 7:00 PM
"I think Xi Jinping, when he looks at the world around him, sees a place beset by threat, especially from the West."
James Kynge on the worldview guiding China's foreign policy.
Watch in full➡️ https://bit.ly/4qwKdJ7
James Kynge on the worldview guiding China's foreign policy.
Watch in full➡️ https://bit.ly/4qwKdJ7
Reposted
NEW: The PLA flew a surveillance drone through Taiwanese airspace over Pratas on January 17, possibly marking the first confirmed PLA violation of Taiwanese territorial airspace in decades.
Read the full January 23, China & Taiwan Update: isw.pub/ChinaTaiwanU...
Other Key Takeaways ⬇️
Read the full January 23, China & Taiwan Update: isw.pub/ChinaTaiwanU...
Other Key Takeaways ⬇️
January 23, 2026 at 7:36 PM
NEW: The PLA flew a surveillance drone through Taiwanese airspace over Pratas on January 17, possibly marking the first confirmed PLA violation of Taiwanese territorial airspace in decades.
Read the full January 23, China & Taiwan Update: isw.pub/ChinaTaiwanU...
Other Key Takeaways ⬇️
Read the full January 23, China & Taiwan Update: isw.pub/ChinaTaiwanU...
Other Key Takeaways ⬇️
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Got to read the whole text as @ldfreedman.bsky.social kindly sent it to me (thank you!).
I agree with a lot, especially that Europe is capable of standing up to Trump and defending itself.
However, I still disagree that this is just continuation of a longer transition and rebalancing.
I agree with a lot, especially that Europe is capable of standing up to Trump and defending itself.
However, I still disagree that this is just continuation of a longer transition and rebalancing.
Read only as far as it went before paywall, so don’t know how the text concludes. But no, it’s not only a rebalancing of the relationship.
Americans ignore it at their peril that Europe has been fooled twice, and the shame is on us. We were willing to forgive and move on after Trump 1, but not now.
Americans ignore it at their peril that Europe has been fooled twice, and the shame is on us. We were willing to forgive and move on after Trump 1, but not now.
Latest post tries to catch up with the back and forth on Greenland. I argue that rather this being a rupture (as Mark Carney suggested) the European response shows a transition to a rebalanced transatlantic relationship with diminished US power. (£/free trial), open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/t...?
January 23, 2026 at 7:31 PM
Got to read the whole text as @ldfreedman.bsky.social kindly sent it to me (thank you!).
I agree with a lot, especially that Europe is capable of standing up to Trump and defending itself.
However, I still disagree that this is just continuation of a longer transition and rebalancing.
I agree with a lot, especially that Europe is capable of standing up to Trump and defending itself.
However, I still disagree that this is just continuation of a longer transition and rebalancing.
Reposted
“The Chinese view on Taiwan changed significantly in 2025…The fundamental driver of this new assessment is…the perception that President has little interest in defending Taiwan militarily. China sees an opportunity that may not arise again down the road.” www.foreignaffairs.com/china/perfec...
A Perfect Storm for Taiwan in 2026?
How a convergence of factors could tempt Beijing to act.
www.foreignaffairs.com
January 23, 2026 at 8:13 PM
“The Chinese view on Taiwan changed significantly in 2025…The fundamental driver of this new assessment is…the perception that President has little interest in defending Taiwan militarily. China sees an opportunity that may not arise again down the road.” www.foreignaffairs.com/china/perfec...
Reposted
When U.S. reliability is questioned, China does not need to push hard. It only needs to let uncertainty spread.
Trump, Uncertainty, and China’s Anti-Alliance Strategy
President Donald Trump’s return to the White House has revived a familiar anxiety across Europe and Taiwan: How reliable is the United States when its
warontherocks.com
January 23, 2026 at 12:30 AM
When U.S. reliability is questioned, China does not need to push hard. It only needs to let uncertainty spread.
Reposted
Intel puts consumer chip production on back burner as datacenters make a run on Xeons
Intel puts consumer chip production on back burner as datacenters make a run on Xeons
CFO David Zinsner says foundry capacity should improve starting in Q2
If you notice PC prices creeping up over the next few months, the rising cost of memory won’t be the only reason, because on Thursday Intel said it is reallocating foundry capacity from client chips to meet surging demand for Xeon processors used in AI servers.…
dlvr.it
January 23, 2026 at 1:45 AM
Intel puts consumer chip production on back burner as datacenters make a run on Xeons
Reposted
🔴Trump’s Greenland Delusion Runs Aground in Davos
For all his attempted bullying, taunts and threats, Trump’s delusional Davos speech revealed a man who is far weaker than he appears, argues @alexhh.bsky.social bylinetimes.com/2026/01/21/d...
For all his attempted bullying, taunts and threats, Trump’s delusional Davos speech revealed a man who is far weaker than he appears, argues @alexhh.bsky.social bylinetimes.com/2026/01/21/d...
Trump's Greenland Delusion Runs Aground in Davos
For all his attempted bullying, taunts and threats, Trump's delusional Davos speech revealed a man who is far weaker than he appears, argues Alexandra Hall Hall
bylinetimes.com
January 21, 2026 at 4:41 PM
🔴Trump’s Greenland Delusion Runs Aground in Davos
For all his attempted bullying, taunts and threats, Trump’s delusional Davos speech revealed a man who is far weaker than he appears, argues @alexhh.bsky.social bylinetimes.com/2026/01/21/d...
For all his attempted bullying, taunts and threats, Trump’s delusional Davos speech revealed a man who is far weaker than he appears, argues @alexhh.bsky.social bylinetimes.com/2026/01/21/d...
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New evidence is reshaping how we understand military decision-making during the Tiananmen crisis.
Obedience, Ambiguity, and Punishment: The Chinese Military at Tiananmen Revisited
As this article goes to press, security officials in Iran are carefully weighing their options on how to dole out violence to preserve an authoritarian
warontherocks.com
January 21, 2026 at 10:15 AM
New evidence is reshaping how we understand military decision-making during the Tiananmen crisis.
Reposted
Take a look at The Telegraph's view on Trump. Every single 'columnist' (I use the term loosely) utterly wrong and totally disproven. Never read again.
January 21, 2026 at 9:58 AM
Take a look at The Telegraph's view on Trump. Every single 'columnist' (I use the term loosely) utterly wrong and totally disproven. Never read again.
Reposted
France has called for NATO to hold a military exercise in Greenland and indicated it is “ready to contribute," according to a statement from President Emmanuel Macron’s office.
Follow our live blog for updates 👇 #[politi.co/4qx13Yn
Follow our live blog for updates 👇 #[politi.co/4qx13Yn
January 21, 2026 at 11:06 AM
France has called for NATO to hold a military exercise in Greenland and indicated it is “ready to contribute," according to a statement from President Emmanuel Macron’s office.
Follow our live blog for updates 👇 #[politi.co/4qx13Yn
Follow our live blog for updates 👇 #[politi.co/4qx13Yn
Reposted
Some perspective: The S&P opened down -1.3% on Trump's Greenland saber-rattling. That's $750 billion of wealth destroyed -- roughly equal to estimates of the value of Greenland.
And so ~in dollar terms~ his shenanigans have already cost the US one Greenland, and we've got nothing to show for it.
And so ~in dollar terms~ his shenanigans have already cost the US one Greenland, and we've got nothing to show for it.
January 20, 2026 at 2:48 PM
Some perspective: The S&P opened down -1.3% on Trump's Greenland saber-rattling. That's $750 billion of wealth destroyed -- roughly equal to estimates of the value of Greenland.
And so ~in dollar terms~ his shenanigans have already cost the US one Greenland, and we've got nothing to show for it.
And so ~in dollar terms~ his shenanigans have already cost the US one Greenland, and we've got nothing to show for it.
Reposted
Just starting now.
Watch via the link below
Watch via the link below
THIS EVENING | What does Trump mean for relations between the UK and Europe, and the rest of the world?
Sir Simon Fraser, Fiona Hill and Anand Menon will join us to discuss the impact of Trump's presidency on the UK and Europe
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/event/trump-...
Sir Simon Fraser, Fiona Hill and Anand Menon will join us to discuss the impact of Trump's presidency on the UK and Europe
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/event/trump-...
January 20, 2026 at 6:32 PM
Just starting now.
Watch via the link below
Watch via the link below