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analytic.football
Simon
@analytic.football
Stat nerdery, #lufc and miscellany

Football team ratings model: analytic.football

I chat about FPL @analyticf.pl
Pinned
Just pushed a reasonably large update to analytic.football - my team ratings model for the PL & Championship.

So what's new? 👇
Reposted by Simon
Mark Carney's speech is now only the second most acute analysis of where the world is at right now:
January 21, 2026 at 2:08 PM
Absolutely killer chart backing up what we all know - Starmer chasing the anti-immigrant vote isn't going to work
January 18, 2026 at 9:03 PM
Reposted by Simon
pretty sure he meant the other thing, grok, but very cool that those are your two things
January 16, 2026 at 4:55 PM
Reposted by Simon
Trump accepting Machado's Nobel Peace Prize is a great insult to the FIFA Peace Prize committee
January 16, 2026 at 2:13 AM
January 15, 2026 at 3:59 PM
Reposted by Simon
Buttons are back. Knobs are back. Dumb devices are back. Own-it-forever software is back. Print is back. Personal websites and chronological feeds are back. Touching grass is back. People keep saying 2015, but it’s not far enough. The entire 2010s were a mistake. We must retvrn to… 2009.
Amazingly, reaction times using screens while driving are worse than being drunk or high—no wonder 90 percent of drivers hate using touchscreens in cars. Finally the auto industry is coming to its senses.
Rejoice! Carmakers Are Embracing Physical Buttons Again
Amazingly, reaction times using screens while driving are worse than being drunk or high—no wonder 90 percent of drivers hate using touchscreens in cars. Finally the auto industry is coming to its…
wrd.cm
December 28, 2025 at 3:54 AM
Reposted by Simon
Priceless
December 16, 2025 at 10:35 AM
Reposted by Simon
I’M LOSING MY SHIT THIS IS SO FUNNY
December 11, 2025 at 3:13 PM
Reposted by Simon
Innocent people end up in our criminal courts.

Completely, terrifyingly innocent.

And all that stands between them and losing everything is a fair trial.

Politicians would do well to remember this when they tell us that justice is all about processing “criminals” swiftly.
December 11, 2025 at 10:48 PM
Reposted by Simon
Home Office inadvertently bans historical research about the Dunkirk evacuation.
I'd hate to be a boat owner after this passes.

Imagine all the information that could be be useful for your navigation but which would ALSO be potentially useful to those guiding small boats across the Channel.

Will the Shipping Forecast cease broadcasting? That, after all, makes crossings easier.
December 3, 2025 at 9:54 AM
As you do fewer things at outlier level it gets harder to justify needing to carry a defensive deadweight
November 30, 2025 at 11:53 PM
Reposted by Simon
November 19, 2025 at 11:03 PM
Finally got round to writing a methodology for the model

simon.football/p/analytic-f...
analytic.football - Model Explainer
simon.football
November 19, 2025 at 5:17 PM
About to push some decent upgrades to the model at analytic.football

Big change is model now uses recent average errors to move future ratings - so less fluctuation in the ratings but still moving as quickly when it is consistently wrong

Result is less bouncy ratings (new ones on the left)
November 18, 2025 at 4:05 PM
Reposted by Simon
British and Australian chemists have discovered a powerful new antibiotic called pre-methylenomycin C lactone, hiding in a well-known soil bacterium. This molecule kills drug-resistant bacteria without triggering resistance. buff.ly/YlXaONo
#ShareGoodNewsToo
Scientists find hidden antibiotic 100x stronger against deadly superbugs
A team of scientists discovered a hidden antibiotic 100 times stronger than existing drugs against deadly superbugs like MRSA. The molecule had been overlooked for decades in a familiar bacterium. It…
buff.ly
November 16, 2025 at 2:50 PM
Reposted by Simon
Every time I see this I believe slightly more that this was the most important survey ever conducted.
I will never forgive YouGov for creating this poll
November 16, 2025 at 1:04 PM
Reposted by Simon
spot on
November 14, 2025 at 1:42 PM
Reposted by Simon
Yes, I think this is what the “it’s smart not to do income tax” stuff is missing. If you remove salary sacrifice on someone’s pension contributions you are increasing their income tax! If you freeze thresholds you are increasing their income tax!
Issue for Labour now isn't whether they break their manifesto pledge on tax. It is whether they do so in a way which is blatant, honest but sustainable - or whether they do so by a myriad of complex and likely insufficient means whilst arguing they are not.

Imho, one seems more toxic than the other
November 14, 2025 at 10:16 AM
Reposted by Simon
What is wrong with these people. They just spent two weeks rolling the pitch for a U-turn on a policy they didn’t even do yet?
November 13, 2025 at 10:50 PM
Reposted by Simon
Please share. Last seen in Twycross area, in Nw Leics/ South Derbyshire area. Didn't turn up for football training and car abandoned. A friend's son :(.
#lufc #wba
November 13, 2025 at 10:06 PM
Judging from Mandelson, Rayner, this means he should be in his last 48 hours in the job
November 13, 2025 at 6:35 PM
Reposted by Simon
Throw them all in jail, seize their fortunes, give us UBI and healthcare. I know I'm just fantasizing but it's weird how many people don't realize that THIS is what everyone on the left is thinking about, not protecting abusers who happen to be Democrats.
"This could take down Democrats, too."

I know. And I frankly wouldn't give even an itty bitty damn if it implicated every Democratic man in Congress, every Democratic hopeful for 2028 and every Democrat who has even thought about running for office.

Down with the sex predators, wherever they are.
November 13, 2025 at 1:48 AM
Reposted by Simon
Emily Maitlis brags about her, Deb Cohen, and Hannah Barnes getting the Tavistock GIDS service shut down.

What she doesn't talk about is how Newsnight journalists manufactured outrage and concocted "scandals" based on unethical journalism - which they were called out for, but tried to hide...

🔥🧵
Emily Maitlis admitting she worked at the bbc to try and get healthcare for trans people shut down
November 11, 2025 at 3:38 PM
The memo complaining bout doctoring the speech to make it more incendiary was...also doctoring the speech but for the opposite effect? Hmmmmmmmm
Left: Donald Trump’s Jan 6th quote, as presented in the dossier that brought down two BBC bosses

Right: What Donald Trump actually said.

Full story in @thenewworldmag.bsky.social: www.thenewworld.co.uk/james-ball-e...
November 12, 2025 at 4:29 PM