Alex Von Hagen-Jamar
@alexvhj.bsky.social
Democratic pollster. Survey methods and data at GSG. PoliSci PhD. Also loves dogs, cats, soccer, d&d
Reposted by Alex Von Hagen-Jamar
one of the grimmest things I’ve ever read, but happily it does contain the phrase “mysterious constellation of brutal practices”
Pointed out by my friend @carloshasanax.bsky.social . There's something weird and unsettling about a fairly homogeneous culture spread out across Europe that then collapses into an orgy of genocide.
www.science.org/content/arti...
www.science.org/content/arti...
Headless bodies hint at why Europe’s first farmers vanished
Wave of mass brutality accompanied the collapse of the first pan-European culture
www.science.org
November 27, 2025 at 1:32 PM
one of the grimmest things I’ve ever read, but happily it does contain the phrase “mysterious constellation of brutal practices”
Reposted by Alex Von Hagen-Jamar
![Comic. Panels up to the 10-year point are grayed out. New panels since the Ten Years comic, which chronicles the first ten years of PERSON 1's journey with cancer: (1) [two people in bed] PERSON 1 (woman): One more chapter? PERSON 2 (man): Don’t we both have to get up early? PERSON 1: Nnnnnggggh PERSON 2: Sure, good point. (2) [many people wearing masks, walking while looking at graphs on their phones] (3) [birds landing on people] PERSON 2 in beanie and scarf: Hah! They like *my* seeds best. PERSON 1 in scarf holding phone with a bird sitting on it: Wait, how do I take a picture of this one? (4) [two people rowing boats with tree landscape] (5) [Person 1 carries overflowing stack of things to Person 2 in bed] PERSON 1: I brought you honey lemon tea, more pillows, a cinnamon roll, Tylenol, another blanket, a– PERSON 2: It was just Appendicitis, I’m really– PERSON 1: *It is my turn to take care of you and I am going to do it right!* (6) [Two people in car] (7) [still in car) PERSON 1: Oh my god. PERSON 2: Oh my god. (8) [car driving] PERSON 1: Pull over! PERSON 2: I am! (9) [both people get out of car] (10) [Large colored panel of aurora borealis over water with both people looking on] (11) [Person 1 sits against tree while Person 2 lies on the ground] PERSON 1: Fifteen years. No sign of the cancer. (12) I *am* having some weird symptoms. Joint pain. Fatigue. I think I’m losing my close-up vision. PERSON 2: Yeah. Me too. (13) PERSON 2: I think we’re getting old. (14) PERSON 1: I guess that’s okay. PERSON 2: It’s all I wanted.](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:cz73r7iyiqn26upot4jtjdhk/bafkreihwhjblp5lyiwp63ouar7ocfea7evmckytoeo7rkfuoo4gw5rnrra@jpeg)
November 26, 2025 at 10:32 PM
Reposted by Alex Von Hagen-Jamar
1) genuine life changing moment of my early 20s was realizing I actually didn't have to do this at all. tell the youths
2) I feel like there's a class discussion to be had around the stakes of this kind of decision though
2) I feel like there's a class discussion to be had around the stakes of this kind of decision though
So many men go through life like that. You can play poker because it's right-coded, you can't enjoy fruity alcoholic drinks because they're women-coded, you can't lick an ice cream cone because it's gay-coded. All day, every day, choosing and judging things based on coding for narrow norms.
November 26, 2025 at 3:43 PM
1) genuine life changing moment of my early 20s was realizing I actually didn't have to do this at all. tell the youths
2) I feel like there's a class discussion to be had around the stakes of this kind of decision though
2) I feel like there's a class discussion to be had around the stakes of this kind of decision though
Reposted by Alex Von Hagen-Jamar
There's a big difference between passive and active news consumers! This week, we're joined by GSG's VP of Research, @will-jordan.bsky.social, to discuss these trends in news consumption and what it means for civic awareness and political engagement.
maristpoll.com/podcast
maristpoll.com/podcast
November 26, 2025 at 3:28 PM
There's a big difference between passive and active news consumers! This week, we're joined by GSG's VP of Research, @will-jordan.bsky.social, to discuss these trends in news consumption and what it means for civic awareness and political engagement.
maristpoll.com/podcast
maristpoll.com/podcast
Reposted by Alex Von Hagen-Jamar
Big new survey from Pew on Latino Americans' views of Trump's second term
www.pewresearch.org/race-and-eth...
www.pewresearch.org/race-and-eth...
November 24, 2025 at 8:30 PM
Big new survey from Pew on Latino Americans' views of Trump's second term
www.pewresearch.org/race-and-eth...
www.pewresearch.org/race-and-eth...
Reposted by Alex Von Hagen-Jamar
🚨Working paper alert🚨 This was the first project I started in my PhD, blessed with amazing co-authors! Glad to finally share our findings. Long story short: even largely symbolic and declarative state-sponsored homophobia can translate into real political behavior 👇
New working paper! In this research note, @bogatyrev.bsky.social, @tabouchadi.bsky.social, @heikekluever.bsky.social, @lstoetze.bsky.social, and I present the first systematic test that causally identifies the electoral consequences of state-sponsored homophobia:
osf.io/preprints/os...
🧵Thread
osf.io/preprints/os...
🧵Thread
February 27, 2025 at 2:24 PM
🚨Working paper alert🚨 This was the first project I started in my PhD, blessed with amazing co-authors! Glad to finally share our findings. Long story short: even largely symbolic and declarative state-sponsored homophobia can translate into real political behavior 👇
Reposted by Alex Von Hagen-Jamar
November 20, 2025 at 2:05 PM
Reposted by Alex Von Hagen-Jamar
It’s a scream-constantly kind of week.
November 17, 2025 at 1:19 PM
It’s a scream-constantly kind of week.
People who give prescriptive advice on how to win elections should at least be descriptively accurate about what people who are doing the actual work of trying to win elections are already doing.
I used to teach students that their literature reviews ought to try to characterize other arguments in ways that would be recognized by those authors. Most of the time on here, when I see someone describe what political strategists or consultants think, I don’t think it meets that bar.
November 16, 2025 at 3:37 PM
People who give prescriptive advice on how to win elections should at least be descriptively accurate about what people who are doing the actual work of trying to win elections are already doing.
Reposted by Alex Von Hagen-Jamar
'Four cones wins, but in order to get a cone you have to build a civilization. Which is where the spirit cards come in'
November 15, 2025 at 11:25 PM
'Four cones wins, but in order to get a cone you have to build a civilization. Which is where the spirit cards come in'
Reposted by Alex Von Hagen-Jamar
Reposted by Alex Von Hagen-Jamar
Rowdy Audi time😤
🆚 Portland Thorns
⏰ 12pm ET
🏟️ Audi Field
📺 CBS
🆚 Portland Thorns
⏰ 12pm ET
🏟️ Audi Field
📺 CBS
November 15, 2025 at 1:23 PM
Rowdy Audi time😤
🆚 Portland Thorns
⏰ 12pm ET
🏟️ Audi Field
📺 CBS
🆚 Portland Thorns
⏰ 12pm ET
🏟️ Audi Field
📺 CBS
Reposted by Alex Von Hagen-Jamar
look as someone who can be incapacitated for weeks by the fear that I put the wrong number of exclamation points into an email this has been a fascinating glimpse into a some brains that work extremely! differently! from! mine!
November 13, 2025 at 5:28 PM
look as someone who can be incapacitated for weeks by the fear that I put the wrong number of exclamation points into an email this has been a fascinating glimpse into a some brains that work extremely! differently! from! mine!
Reposted by Alex Von Hagen-Jamar
4TH STRAIGHT PLAYOFF SELLOUT 😤
Thank you Spirit fam 💛 we can’t wait to see you this Saturday!
Thank you Spirit fam 💛 we can’t wait to see you this Saturday!
November 12, 2025 at 2:34 PM
4TH STRAIGHT PLAYOFF SELLOUT 😤
Thank you Spirit fam 💛 we can’t wait to see you this Saturday!
Thank you Spirit fam 💛 we can’t wait to see you this Saturday!
Reposted by Alex Von Hagen-Jamar
New: Women candidates, running on affordability, powered many of Dems’ big wins last night. Aside from the VA and NJ gov races, women made up a large % of those who flipped VA House seats + set a record for women’s representation in that chamber 19thnews.org/2025/11/demo...
Women running on affordability powered Democrats’ night of victories
Democratic women proved effective messengers in an election focused on the rising cost of living and the effects of Trump’s second term.
19thnews.org
November 5, 2025 at 10:32 PM
New: Women candidates, running on affordability, powered many of Dems’ big wins last night. Aside from the VA and NJ gov races, women made up a large % of those who flipped VA House seats + set a record for women’s representation in that chamber 19thnews.org/2025/11/demo...
Reposted by Alex Von Hagen-Jamar
“However, when candidates inoculate early and respond directly, they recover those points and sometimes gain additional margin by demonstrating their values and strength,” the memo continued.
November 7, 2025 at 11:30 PM
“However, when candidates inoculate early and respond directly, they recover those points and sometimes gain additional margin by demonstrating their values and strength,” the memo continued.
Reposted by Alex Von Hagen-Jamar
ryan is right. people HATE hearing this. but it is just a matter of simple incentives. if you want a more representative legislature — and if you want a legislature more resistant to corruption — then you need to jack up the salaries. serving as mayor of NYC should net you a cool 500K *at least*
people hate hearing this but it's 100% true, creating a huge pay gap between political leaders, their staffs, and other elites is a recipe for corruption. of course the flip side of that is taxes on the rich should be jacked way the hell up
The Mayor of New York only makes $260k. I bet there are police that make more than that in NY with overtime.
We need to pay elected leaders more money and stop pretending it's some sort of calling. They're managing hundreds of billions of dollars in investments and millions of people's lives.
We need to pay elected leaders more money and stop pretending it's some sort of calling. They're managing hundreds of billions of dollars in investments and millions of people's lives.
November 7, 2025 at 3:42 PM
ryan is right. people HATE hearing this. but it is just a matter of simple incentives. if you want a more representative legislature — and if you want a legislature more resistant to corruption — then you need to jack up the salaries. serving as mayor of NYC should net you a cool 500K *at least*
Reposted by Alex Von Hagen-Jamar
I gotta say, I’m seeing the most Live Laugh Love women I went to all girls high school with in Ohio posting anti-ICE Instagram reels and demanding people pay attention to the threat of fascism
November 6, 2025 at 4:58 PM
I gotta say, I’m seeing the most Live Laugh Love women I went to all girls high school with in Ohio posting anti-ICE Instagram reels and demanding people pay attention to the threat of fascism
Reposted by Alex Von Hagen-Jamar
These two ladies are respectively from the intel and military communities. And those backgrounds set those ladies up to be the no nonsense tough ladies in their races. They were part of the draw. It gives them just a hint of small c conservative creed with certain voters.
November 5, 2025 at 1:20 PM
These two ladies are respectively from the intel and military communities. And those backgrounds set those ladies up to be the no nonsense tough ladies in their races. They were part of the draw. It gives them just a hint of small c conservative creed with certain voters.
Reposted by Alex Von Hagen-Jamar
Democratic Rep. Jared Golden, facing a primary challenge from state Auditor Matt Dunlap, says he won't seek reelection in #ME02
Jared Golden: I won’t seek reelection. Here’s why.
"What I could accomplish in this increasingly unproductive Congress pales in comparison to what I could do in that time as a husband, a father and a son."
www.bangordailynews.com
November 5, 2025 at 8:05 PM
Democratic Rep. Jared Golden, facing a primary challenge from state Auditor Matt Dunlap, says he won't seek reelection in #ME02
It was a great night for Democrats, and I’m so proud of GSG’s contribution to making it happen!
We are thrilled with last night’s Democratic victories, and proud to serve as the pollster for the gubernatorial campaigns of both @mikiesherrill.bsky.social and @abigailspanberger.com — marking historic wins as the first female Gov in VA and the first Democratic woman Gov in NJ.
Onwards to 2026!
Onwards to 2026!
November 5, 2025 at 7:23 PM
It was a great night for Democrats, and I’m so proud of GSG’s contribution to making it happen!
Reposted by Alex Von Hagen-Jamar
Update: safe to say that Trump discontent isn't a polling mirage. Partial end-of-night #s have Sherrill coming in at around '21 levels in key Hispanic cities in NJ: in aggregate, higher than '20/'24, but lower than '16/'17. The tape is rewound a bit heading into '26.
November 5, 2025 at 4:57 AM
Update: safe to say that Trump discontent isn't a polling mirage. Partial end-of-night #s have Sherrill coming in at around '21 levels in key Hispanic cities in NJ: in aggregate, higher than '20/'24, but lower than '16/'17. The tape is rewound a bit heading into '26.
Reposted by Alex Von Hagen-Jamar
this is extremely correct, as a rule, although not in 100% of cases
I feel most serious survey methods people can’t stop disclosing caveats and uncertainties completely unprompted
November 4, 2025 at 1:06 AM
this is extremely correct, as a rule, although not in 100% of cases
Reposted by Alex Von Hagen-Jamar
conspiracies about polling always crack me up because have you ever heard a group of >1 survey methodologists try to come to a consensus on anything
November 4, 2025 at 12:54 AM
conspiracies about polling always crack me up because have you ever heard a group of >1 survey methodologists try to come to a consensus on anything
Reposted by Alex Von Hagen-Jamar
Political inexperience in Congress has measurable effects on legislative outcomes. Our research finds that when districts elect political newcomers over career politicians, congressional dysfunction tends to increase.
New explainer of our PNAS study:
theconversation.com/amateur-hour...
New explainer of our PNAS study:
theconversation.com/amateur-hour...
Amateur hour in Congress: How political newcomers fuel gridlock and government shutdowns
The public’s frustration with ‘politics as usual’ has led more political newcomers to win office. But amateurs are more likely to view bipartisanship as a concession, not a tool for advancing policy.
theconversation.com
November 3, 2025 at 1:45 PM
Political inexperience in Congress has measurable effects on legislative outcomes. Our research finds that when districts elect political newcomers over career politicians, congressional dysfunction tends to increase.
New explainer of our PNAS study:
theconversation.com/amateur-hour...
New explainer of our PNAS study:
theconversation.com/amateur-hour...