Carlos Odio
@carlosodio.bsky.social
Co-founder, Equis Research. Miamian living in New Jersey. Not a pollster I just poll a lot.
Latest @EquisResearch memo on the state of play with Latino voters after the ‘25 elections, a level-set after the NJ/VA/CA swings, featuring new polling
www.weareequis.us/research/lat...
www.weareequis.us/research/lat...
Latino State of Play: 2025 Elections and New Equis Polling | Equis Research
Survey conducted 10/15 – 10/29 via phones and text-to-web with 2000 registered voters who identify as Hispanic or Latino nationally. The sample included an oversample in the following pooled competiti...
www.weareequis.us
November 18, 2025 at 1:26 PM
Latest @EquisResearch memo on the state of play with Latino voters after the ‘25 elections, a level-set after the NJ/VA/CA swings, featuring new polling
www.weareequis.us/research/lat...
www.weareequis.us/research/lat...
Reposted by Carlos Odio
On what we can actually learn about Hispanic and Latino voters from Tuesday's elections, with @carlosodio.bsky.social: www.vox.com/politics/467...
Republicans may have a Latino problem (again)
What New Jersey can teach the parties about Latino voters.
www.vox.com
November 6, 2025 at 2:31 PM
On what we can actually learn about Hispanic and Latino voters from Tuesday's elections, with @carlosodio.bsky.social: www.vox.com/politics/467...
In NJ-09, one of the state’s most-watched CDs, Sherrill way over-performed 2024 support in the densest Hispanic precincts. Given recent past, it is reasonable to expect that 2025, not 2024, is the proper benchmark for 2026. That’s a big boost for incumbent Nellie Pou.
November 5, 2025 at 7:22 PM
In NJ-09, one of the state’s most-watched CDs, Sherrill way over-performed 2024 support in the densest Hispanic precincts. Given recent past, it is reasonable to expect that 2025, not 2024, is the proper benchmark for 2026. That’s a big boost for incumbent Nellie Pou.
Here’s Passaic County now, preliminarily. Sherrill support closely tracks Murphy ‘21 in Hispanic precincts, way outperforming Harris there. Turnout is lower in Hispanic areas, per usual for Passaic, but less notable in 2025 than in 2021.
November 5, 2025 at 2:25 PM
Here’s Passaic County now, preliminarily. Sherrill support closely tracks Murphy ‘21 in Hispanic precincts, way outperforming Harris there. Turnout is lower in Hispanic areas, per usual for Passaic, but less notable in 2025 than in 2021.
Looking at all available precincts in Hudson County, Sherrill support is higher in the most-densely Hispanic turf & tracks closely with '21. Turnout is *higher* than '21 across the county-- and even more so in the most Hispanic precincts.
November 5, 2025 at 4:58 AM
Looking at all available precincts in Hudson County, Sherrill support is higher in the most-densely Hispanic turf & tracks closely with '21. Turnout is *higher* than '21 across the county-- and even more so in the most Hispanic precincts.
Update: safe to say that Trump discontent isn't a polling mirage. Partial end-of-night #s have Sherrill coming in at around '21 levels in key Hispanic cities in NJ: in aggregate, higher than '20/'24, but lower than '16/'17. The tape is rewound a bit heading into '26.
November 5, 2025 at 4:57 AM
Update: safe to say that Trump discontent isn't a polling mirage. Partial end-of-night #s have Sherrill coming in at around '21 levels in key Hispanic cities in NJ: in aggregate, higher than '20/'24, but lower than '16/'17. The tape is rewound a bit heading into '26.
NJ election is the first real measure of Latino support since last year. A test of whether the Trump discontent in polls is re-shaping behavior heading into '26: will Sherrill come in closer to '21 or '24 in Hispanic bellwethers?
Here are cities to watch. Note '24 vs. prior.
Here are cities to watch. Note '24 vs. prior.
November 4, 2025 at 8:48 PM
NJ election is the first real measure of Latino support since last year. A test of whether the Trump discontent in polls is re-shaping behavior heading into '26: will Sherrill come in closer to '21 or '24 in Hispanic bellwethers?
Here are cities to watch. Note '24 vs. prior.
Here are cities to watch. Note '24 vs. prior.
New national polling of Latinos out today from the Equis team in partnership w/ @dataforprogress.org : views on Trump’s economic moves, what they most want to see now, & how it shapes their views of the parties — & their vote in 2026.
Memo & toplines here:
www.weareequis.us/research/202...
Memo & toplines here:
www.weareequis.us/research/202...
July 2025 Poll on Latinos, Trump and the Economy | Equis Research
This memo summarizes key findings from a national poll of 1,614 registered Hispanic voters, conducted with Data for Progress from July 7 to 17, 2025. This poll has a margin of error of ± 2 pp.
www.weareequis.us
July 31, 2025 at 5:52 PM
New national polling of Latinos out today from the Equis team in partnership w/ @dataforprogress.org : views on Trump’s economic moves, what they most want to see now, & how it shapes their views of the parties — & their vote in 2026.
Memo & toplines here:
www.weareequis.us/research/202...
Memo & toplines here:
www.weareequis.us/research/202...
May 16, 2025 at 4:14 PM
New Equis polling out today, our first public release this year.
🚨 SCOOP: Trump’s Already Losing the Latino Voters He Won Over in 2024
www.thebulwark.com/p/exclusive-... via @thebulwark.com
www.thebulwark.com/p/exclusive-... via @thebulwark.com
Exclusive: Trump’s Losing the Latino Voters He Won in ’24
New poll shows real cracks in the president’s backing—and opportunities for Democrats.
www.thebulwark.com
May 16, 2025 at 4:13 PM
New Equis polling out today, our first public release this year.
If others have not already hooked you up, we can probably help cc @juan-machado.bsky.social
bsky.app/profile/juan...
bsky.app/profile/juan...
In WI special, Crawford outperformed Harris more in majority Hispanic precincts than elsewhere in MKE. But turnout in those areas was also lower. Another sign that Trump’s strength seems to lie with Latinos who don’t who up in these kinds of elections?
April 2, 2025 at 8:16 PM
If others have not already hooked you up, we can probably help cc @juan-machado.bsky.social
bsky.app/profile/juan...
bsky.app/profile/juan...
Our first clean look at Latino voting post-2024
In WI special, Crawford outperformed Harris more in majority Hispanic precincts than elsewhere in MKE. But turnout in those areas was also lower. Another sign that Trump’s strength seems to lie with Latinos who don’t who up in these kinds of elections?
April 2, 2025 at 6:37 PM
Our first clean look at Latino voting post-2024
Tip of the day for avoiding Trump’s traps
Don’t knock him for doing things differently, knock him for doing them poorly.
Distinguish between shaking things up and fucking things up.
Don’t knock him for doing things differently, knock him for doing them poorly.
Distinguish between shaking things up and fucking things up.
January 28, 2025 at 3:57 PM
Tip of the day for avoiding Trump’s traps
Don’t knock him for doing things differently, knock him for doing them poorly.
Distinguish between shaking things up and fucking things up.
Don’t knock him for doing things differently, knock him for doing them poorly.
Distinguish between shaking things up and fucking things up.
For my particular focus, will need to wrestle with “closeness to people with a migration background” as a distinguishing feature of New Left vs New Right
December 12, 2024 at 2:33 PM
For my particular focus, will need to wrestle with “closeness to people with a migration background” as a distinguishing feature of New Left vs New Right
Found this one very compelling: “universalism” (cosmopolitan) vs. “particularism” (traditionalist) as an update to post-materialism, explaining trends across class, education & urbanicity. (They point to the rise of knowledge economies.) Also assign prominent role to candidates & group identities.
New Cambridge Element 'Cleavage Formation in the 21st Century' by Simon Bornschier, @lhaffert.bsky.social, @siljahausermann.bsky.social, Marco Steenberge & @dpzollinger.bsky.social out now!
Read #OpenAccess here: cup.org/3ZLtQ0o
#cambridgeelements #politics
Read #OpenAccess here: cup.org/3ZLtQ0o
#cambridgeelements #politics
December 12, 2024 at 2:27 PM
Found this one very compelling: “universalism” (cosmopolitan) vs. “particularism” (traditionalist) as an update to post-materialism, explaining trends across class, education & urbanicity. (They point to the rise of knowledge economies.) Also assign prominent role to candidates & group identities.
The chart is useful bc it shows views on border & future flow. As you know, that is half the story. The other half is views on long-term immigrants — which was the more defining battle in an earlier era.
December 11, 2024 at 1:52 PM
The chart is useful bc it shows views on border & future flow. As you know, that is half the story. The other half is views on long-term immigrants — which was the more defining battle in an earlier era.
The piece is well-written. The problem is that in dismantling a one-dimensional approach (Latinos only care about immig), it threatens to replace it w/ another (“” are no diff on immig).
Can’t understand Latino vote past or present w/o unpacking the unique cross-pressures created by this issue.
Can’t understand Latino vote past or present w/o unpacking the unique cross-pressures created by this issue.
Great piece from Rogé Karma on how Dems misread Latino opinion on immigration, and ended up shifting far to the left of where most voters were www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archiv...
The theory shows up clear as day in the data 👇
The theory shows up clear as day in the data 👇
December 11, 2024 at 1:33 PM
The piece is well-written. The problem is that in dismantling a one-dimensional approach (Latinos only care about immig), it threatens to replace it w/ another (“” are no diff on immig).
Can’t understand Latino vote past or present w/o unpacking the unique cross-pressures created by this issue.
Can’t understand Latino vote past or present w/o unpacking the unique cross-pressures created by this issue.
Cue Montell Jordan: this is how you do it
December 7, 2024 at 3:39 AM
Cue Montell Jordan: this is how you do it
Rule #1 for side-stepping Trump’s favorite traps:
Don’t let him draw you into defending the wrong things.
No need to defend: red tape, fentanyl smugglers, the military industrial complex, the status quo generally
Do defend: consumers, workers, families, real people generally
Don’t let him draw you into defending the wrong things.
No need to defend: red tape, fentanyl smugglers, the military industrial complex, the status quo generally
Do defend: consumers, workers, families, real people generally
December 6, 2024 at 12:56 PM
Rule #1 for side-stepping Trump’s favorite traps:
Don’t let him draw you into defending the wrong things.
No need to defend: red tape, fentanyl smugglers, the military industrial complex, the status quo generally
Do defend: consumers, workers, families, real people generally
Don’t let him draw you into defending the wrong things.
No need to defend: red tape, fentanyl smugglers, the military industrial complex, the status quo generally
Do defend: consumers, workers, families, real people generally
Reposted by Carlos Odio
@mikemadrid.bsky.social @carlosodio.bsky.social deliver a master class discussion on what just happened re the Latino vote. Spoiler: it’s not what you think happened. Learn and pass it on.
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...
The Path Forward: Rebuilding Latino Support | The Latino Vote Episode 64 - Featuring Carlos Odio
Podcast Episode · The Latino Vote · 11/15/2024 · 53m
podcasts.apple.com
November 26, 2024 at 6:31 PM
@mikemadrid.bsky.social @carlosodio.bsky.social deliver a master class discussion on what just happened re the Latino vote. Spoiler: it’s not what you think happened. Learn and pass it on.
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...
Reposted by Carlos Odio
Fortunately, orgs like Young Men Research Initiative have done extensive analysis of where persuadable voters get their news. Hint: they don't think of it as news, rather as funny and interesting content that keeps their ears busy at work
youngmenresearchinitiative.substack.com/p/where-do-d...
youngmenresearchinitiative.substack.com/p/where-do-d...
November 26, 2024 at 2:52 PM
Fortunately, orgs like Young Men Research Initiative have done extensive analysis of where persuadable voters get their news. Hint: they don't think of it as news, rather as funny and interesting content that keeps their ears busy at work
youngmenresearchinitiative.substack.com/p/where-do-d...
youngmenresearchinitiative.substack.com/p/where-do-d...
From this article bsky.app/profile/carl...
“It’s not fair” — the sentiment at the heart of things, from those frustrated by broken immigration promises
Great @propublica.org piece
t.co/0ic8u6oGNm
Great @propublica.org piece
t.co/0ic8u6oGNm
November 26, 2024 at 6:14 PM
From this article bsky.app/profile/carl...
This one breaks my heart. There is wishful thinking here. But also rational calculation based on past experience (see: enforcement of DeSantis immigration law). And there’s what came to be understood on campaign trail (Vance: “we start with the criminal migrants”), w/o pushback from Harris campaign.
November 26, 2024 at 6:14 PM
This one breaks my heart. There is wishful thinking here. But also rational calculation based on past experience (see: enforcement of DeSantis immigration law). And there’s what came to be understood on campaign trail (Vance: “we start with the criminal migrants”), w/o pushback from Harris campaign.
“It’s not fair” — the sentiment at the heart of things, from those frustrated by broken immigration promises
Great @propublica.org piece
t.co/0ic8u6oGNm
Great @propublica.org piece
t.co/0ic8u6oGNm
November 26, 2024 at 2:15 PM
“It’s not fair” — the sentiment at the heart of things, from those frustrated by broken immigration promises
Great @propublica.org piece
t.co/0ic8u6oGNm
Great @propublica.org piece
t.co/0ic8u6oGNm