Albert Varela
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Albert Varela
@albertvarela.bsky.social
600 followers 840 following 11 posts
Lecturer in Quantitative Methods - School of Sociology and Social Policy, University of Leeds. 
Interested in measurement and analysis of job quality, poverty and social mobility.
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Reposted by Albert Varela
rmcelreath.bsky.social
As a statistical educator, it had not occurred to me that I need to caution students against regressing a variable on a function of itself. My naivete is unbounded.

The Peri & Sparber paper (linked below) looks really good! It has synthetic data analyses and everything.
mclem.org Michael Clemens @mclem.org · 14d
Third, it's true: some immigration researchers' choices do bias their results.

A key example is Borjas (2006).

Peri & Sparber (2011) show that Borjas chose a regression specification that generated spurious negative correlation between immigration & native employment.

doi.org/10.1016/j.ju...
January 8, 2026 at 9:16 AM
Reposted by Albert Varela
rmcelreath.bsky.social
And we're live, Lecture A1 is online. Introduction to Bayesian workflow, generative models, estimands, estimators, estimates, error checking, beginnings of probability theory and Bayesian updating. www.youtube.com/watch?v=ztbY...
January 6, 2026 at 11:02 AM
Reposted by Albert Varela
jacobedenhofer.bsky.social
Here are my favourite 2025 papers on climate policy/politics (listed in no particular order).
1. Ascari, Guido, Andrea Colciago, Timo Haber, and Stefan Wöhrmüller. 2025. ‘Inequality along the European Green Transition’. Economic Journal.
doi.org/10.1093/ej/u...
December 30, 2025 at 3:20 PM
Reposted by Albert Varela
nandosigona.bsky.social
What do Britons know and think about #irregularmigration?
Read new @iclaimeu.bsky.social report out today

i-claim.eu/project/publ...
Public understanding and attitudes to irregular migration in the UK - I-CLAIM
This report summarises findings from the February 2025 I-CLAIM survey of 1,147 UK adults, exploring public knowledge of irregular migration, how people define it, and their attitudes toward irregular ...
i-claim.eu
December 11, 2025 at 7:35 AM
Reposted by Albert Varela
benansell.bsky.social
On the morning of Keir Starmer's conference speech here's a new post on an odd psychopathology in British politics - our main parties don't like the people who vote for them - the dreaded Professional Managerial Class. And so they are acting out like a divorced dad seeking cooler voters. 1/n
British Politics' Midlife Crisis
Why British Parties Can't Make Peace with Their Actual Voters
benansell.substack.com
September 30, 2025 at 6:40 AM
Reposted by Albert Varela
josenoguerauab.bsky.social
Young researchers in social policy, submit!
manuel-alvarinho.bsky.social Manuel Alvariño @manuel-alvarinho.bsky.social · Dec 5
Whoever has gone to #COSPPO remembers it well as a place of young social policy community in Southern Europe. This year, the doctoral workshop expands to any form of early career scholar.
Submit here acortar.link/6A6JjZ before 13/12!
23–24 of April 2026 at @uab.cat, organized by @igopbcn.bsky.social
December 5, 2025 at 8:19 AM
Reposted by Albert Varela
datavisfriendly.bsky.social
#rstats
It is with profound sadness I heard that my long-time friend and colleague, John Fox passed away this week.
He was the author of {car}, {effects}, {Rcmdr}, ... and numerous influential books. I will miss him greatly.
www.john-fox.ca
John Fox: Books and Software
www.john-fox.ca
November 28, 2025 at 3:26 PM
Reposted by Albert Varela
casmudde.bsky.social
After more than 10 years of “the Danish Model”, nativism is hegemonic in the country, the far right polls near level highs again, and the Social Democrats lost Copenhagen and poll at historic low.

European Social Democrats should look at the facts, not the myths!

Me in @theguardian.com
The ‘Danish model’ is the darling of centre-left parties like Labour. The problem is, it doesn’t even work in Denmark | Cas Mudde
This week’s local elections are the latest reminder that when social democrats move rightwards, they’re making a mistake, says academic and author Cas Mudde
www.theguardian.com
November 22, 2025 at 1:59 PM
Reposted by Albert Varela
deutschmann.bsky.social
New #openaccess study

We made >16,000 visa appointment requests at German embassies and consulates worldwide

Key finding: The poorer the country, the longer the wait time and the lower the chance to get an appointment.

"A time panelty for the Global South?"
shorturl.at/ZiAFb
Visas are a key tool for states to regulate incoming mobility from abroad, which can have ramifications for the establishment and perpetuation of global inequalities. In this article, we systematically analyze visa appointment wait times in German embassies and consulates worldwide. Using computational methods, we collect—and publish—fine-grained longitudinal data on the closest available appointment dates for various visa types, covering a total of 16,182 visa appointment requests. Our analysis reveals strong and systematic variance: the poorer the country a diplomatic mission is based in, the longer the wait time and the lower the chances of finding an available appointment (which ranges from almost 0 to 100 percent). We also argue that Germany’s system is quite opaque compared to other established immigration countries such as the U.S. These core findings raise important questions in light of current debates about global justice, legal pathways to migration, and efforts to attract foreign talent. Graph that shows that 44.1 percent of requests did not lead to an appointment that could be selected. For the 55.9 percent where an appointment was available the distribution of wait times follows a steep curve with short wait times in many cases and a long tail of few cases with very long wait times of up to 98 days. The average wait times and chances to find an appointment varied a lot between Germany's diplomatic missions. The latter range from almost 0 to 100 percent. This variance is not random. Rather, economic wellbeing (GDP per capita) is a key predictor of wait times and chances of finding an appointment. The poorer the country a German embassy/consulate is based in, the longer the wait time and the lower the chances of finding an appointment.
November 19, 2025 at 10:30 AM
Reposted by Albert Varela
juliusk.bsky.social
The electoral outcome most strongly linked to deprivation is not any party’s vote share, but turnout. Across almost all indicators, turnout is markedly lower in more deprived areas, with only barriers to housing & services and quality in the living environment showing weaker correlations.
November 3, 2025 at 8:41 AM
Reposted by Albert Varela
andrewjdbell.bsky.social
Pleased to see this out in print - detailing MAIHDA's desirable statistical properties.

"MAIHDA is especially valuable when inequalities are subtle or data for marginalised intersections are sparse - conditions common in practice"

journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...

@clarerevans.bsky.social
The Statistical Advantages of Multilevel Analysis of Individual Heterogeneity and Discriminatory Accuracy for Estimating Intersectional Inequalities - George Leckie, Andrew Bell, Juan Merlo, SV Subram...
Multilevel Analysis of Individual Heterogeneity and Discriminatory Accuracy (MAIHDA) is a multilevel regression approach grounded in intersectionality theory. I...
journals.sagepub.com
October 22, 2025 at 4:00 PM
Reposted by Albert Varela
quiquefm.bsky.social
We just published a new report synthesizing more than 7 years of research on the impact of digital technologies on employment in Europe carried out with my team in the JRC. Lots of evidence and ideas for discussion! #EconSky #sociology
@sergiotorrejon.com @lauranurski.bsky.social
Work in the Digital Era: How Technology is Transforming Work and Occupations
This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the impact of digital technologies on work and occupations in Europe, critically reassessing dominant narratives of mass unemployment and job polarisat...
publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu
September 12, 2025 at 5:03 PM
Reposted by Albert Varela
ronjasczepanski.bsky.social
Ever asked yourself how to detect and extract social groups from texts with computational social science? @haukelicht.bsky.social and me have a solution for you out at @bjpols.bsky.social. You can also find the pre-trained models on huggingface!
bjpols.bsky.social British Journal of Political Science @bjpols.bsky.social · Sep 1
NEW -

Detecting Group Mentions in Political Rhetoric A Supervised Learning Approach - cup.org/45WZppQ

- @haukelicht.bsky.social & @ronjasczepanski.bsky.social

#OpenAccess
BJPolS Abstract discussing a social science research method that uses text analysis for understanding group language patterns and political leanings, mentioning the use of British articles and generating new empirical insights.
September 1, 2025 at 3:46 PM
Reposted by Albert Varela
itsmccarthy.bsky.social
What do unions do? On average they make the members about $870k more wealthy over time, new findings at Social Forces show.
Abstract
September 1, 2025 at 6:20 PM
Reposted by Albert Varela
dingdingpeng.the100.ci
Ever stared at a table of regression coefficients & wondered what you're doing with your life?

Very excited to share this gentle introduction to another way of making sense of statistical models (w @vincentab.bsky.social)
Preprint: doi.org/10.31234/osf...
Website: j-rohrer.github.io/marginal-psy...
Models as Prediction Machines: How to Convert Confusing Coefficients into Clear Quantities Abstract Psychological researchers usually make sense of regression models by interpreting coefficient estimates directly. This works well enough for simple linear models, but is more challenging for more complex models with, for example, categorical variables, interactions, non-linearities, and hierarchical structures. Here, we introduce an alternative approach to making sense of statistical models. The central idea is to abstract away from the mechanics of estimation, and to treat models as “counterfactual prediction machines,” which are subsequently queried to estimate quantities and conduct tests that matter substantively. This workflow is model-agnostic; it can be applied in a consistent fashion to draw causal or descriptive inference from a wide range of models. We illustrate how to implement this workflow with the marginaleffects package, which supports over 100 different classes of models in R and Python, and present two worked examples. These examples show how the workflow can be applied across designs (e.g., observational study, randomized experiment) to answer different research questions (e.g., associations, causal effects, effect heterogeneity) while facing various challenges (e.g., controlling for confounders in a flexible manner, modelling ordinal outcomes, and interpreting non-linear models). Figure illustrating model predictions. On the X-axis the predictor, annual gross income in Euro. On the Y-axis the outcome, predicted life satisfaction. A solid line marks the curve of predictions on which individual data points are marked as model-implied outcomes at incomes of interest. Comparing two such predictions gives us a comparison. We can also fit a tangent to the line of predictions, which illustrates the slope at any given point of the curve. A figure illustrating various ways to include age as a predictor in a model. On the x-axis age (predictor), on the y-axis the outcome (model-implied importance of friends, including confidence intervals). Illustrated are 1. age as a categorical predictor, resultings in the predictions bouncing around a lot with wide confidence intervals 2. age as a linear predictor, which forces a straight line through the data points that has a very tight confidence band and 3. age splines, which lies somewhere in between as it smoothly follows the data but has more uncertainty than the straight line.
August 25, 2025 at 11:49 AM
Reposted by Albert Varela
cmpech.bsky.social
Check out my new article in the Journal of Organizational Sociology, where I examine how technology limits the autonomy of entry-level workers. I theorize two subtypes of technical control and discuss its implications for gender inequality
www.degruyterbrill.com/document/doi...
“The System Sucks”: Computer Programs and Technical Control in Entry-Level White-Collar Work
Researchers often examine how technology controls the labor of precarious workers while demonstrating the limits of technology on controlling professional workers. Drawing on a subset of 46 in-depth i...
www.degruyterbrill.com
August 13, 2025 at 2:15 PM
Reposted by Albert Varela
davidbuil.bsky.social
New how-to guide now available on the European Network for Open Criminology website. This time @asiermoneva.com shares advice on writing reproducible and readable analysis code. Highly recommended! esc-enoc.github.io/how-to/repro...
Write Reproducible and Readable Analysis Code – European Network for Open Criminology
Find out how to make your analysis code easy to share, understand, and reproduce.
esc-enoc.github.io
July 30, 2025 at 2:51 PM
Reposted by Albert Varela
jonathanhopkin.bsky.social
The outsourcing boom of the Major-Blair years saved money in the short run but left the state without the capacity to do anything but buy in services from canny private providers who have us over a barrel and are raking it in
July 23, 2025 at 7:27 AM
Reposted by Albert Varela
lisdata.bsky.social
🚨 Major release alert
We’re thrilled to launch lissyrtools v0.2.0 — our R package that makes working with LIS & LWS microdata simpler, faster, and clearer 📦
🧵 1/12
June 12, 2025 at 3:09 PM
Reposted by Albert Varela
haylesben.bsky.social
Interested in employment and social security research? Please follow the account below (we've moved from X and need to rebuild our following!)
June 12, 2025 at 11:44 AM
Reposted by Albert Varela
easystats.github.io
🆕 Introducing check_group_variation() in the {performance} #Rstats package! 🎉

This function makes it easy to checks if variables vary within or between levels of grouping variables.

Perfect for understanding and designing mixed models 🚀

easystats.github.io/performance/...

#stats #easystats
mlmRev::egsingle |> performance::check_group_variation( select = c("female", "grade", "math"), by = c("schoolid", "childid"), include_by = TRUE ) #> Check schoolid variation #> #> Variable | Variation | Design #> ------------------------------ #> childid | both | nested #> female | within | crossed #> grade | both | #> math | both | #> #> Check childid variation #> #> Variable | Variation | Design #> ----------------------------- #> schoolid | between | #> female | between | #> grade | both | #> math | both |
May 27, 2025 at 6:48 AM
Reposted by Albert Varela
dingdingpeng.the100.ci
Writing some paragraphs about odds ratio and, more generally, different scales in nonlinear models.

Any favorite articles on odds ratio?>
May 26, 2025 at 12:59 PM
Reposted by Albert Varela
jonathanhopkin.bsky.social
I’ll take the cutting migration idea seriously the day a politician actually outlines a serious budgeted plan for training British-born workers for the skills we’re short of, and housing them in the places where they’re needed. Until then it’s just the worst kind of blame-shifting propaganda
May 13, 2025 at 6:40 AM
Reposted by Albert Varela
youngvulgarian.marieleconte.com
christ, what a day to be an immigrant cursed with the ability to read
May 12, 2025 at 12:13 PM
Reposted by Albert Varela
andrew.heiss.phd
On the verge of declaring defeat with chatgpt in my asynchronous online dataviz class. Something changed this semester compared to past ones and SO MANY assignments are essentially 100% LLM output.
May 8, 2025 at 12:44 AM