Andrew MacDougall
@ahmacdougall.bsky.social
Canadian Climate Scientist from Nova Scotia, specializing in Zero Emissions Commitment, carbon budgets, permafrost carbon, and biogeochemical feedbacks to climate change.
Reposted by Andrew MacDougall
The North American #petrostate bubble is so weird. Even the classic Middle Eastern autocratic petrostates don’t construct weird alternative realities to justify fossil fuels, they actively & transparently follow the money wherever it flows, including into the clean energy transition.
November 15, 2025 at 7:57 PM
The North American #petrostate bubble is so weird. Even the classic Middle Eastern autocratic petrostates don’t construct weird alternative realities to justify fossil fuels, they actively & transparently follow the money wherever it flows, including into the clean energy transition.
Reposted by Andrew MacDougall
Now that the Sept and Oct data are (belatedly) in, it looks like 2025 will be the second warmest year in the record (~80% probability). The last three years are in a class of their own.
November 15, 2025 at 4:54 PM
Now that the Sept and Oct data are (belatedly) in, it looks like 2025 will be the second warmest year in the record (~80% probability). The last three years are in a class of their own.
No emission peak this year. Emissions up in China, US and EU. Land use change emissions are down.
Published today in Earth System Science Data: The Global Carbon Budget 2025
essd.copernicus.org/preprints/es...
essd.copernicus.org/preprints/es...
Global Carbon Budget 2025
Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to bette...
essd.copernicus.org
November 13, 2025 at 8:04 PM
No emission peak this year. Emissions up in China, US and EU. Land use change emissions are down.
Reposted by Andrew MacDougall
NEW: Global fossil fuel use will peak before 2030 – unless 'stated policies' are abandoned
Contra some terrible news coverage, IEA World Energy Outlook shows coal near peak, oil peaking by 2030 & gas by 2035 (see chart)
What's going on? 🧵 + cool charts
www.carbonbrief.org/iea-fossil-f...
Contra some terrible news coverage, IEA World Energy Outlook shows coal near peak, oil peaking by 2030 & gas by 2035 (see chart)
What's going on? 🧵 + cool charts
www.carbonbrief.org/iea-fossil-f...
November 12, 2025 at 9:02 AM
NEW: Global fossil fuel use will peak before 2030 – unless 'stated policies' are abandoned
Contra some terrible news coverage, IEA World Energy Outlook shows coal near peak, oil peaking by 2030 & gas by 2035 (see chart)
What's going on? 🧵 + cool charts
www.carbonbrief.org/iea-fossil-f...
Contra some terrible news coverage, IEA World Energy Outlook shows coal near peak, oil peaking by 2030 & gas by 2035 (see chart)
What's going on? 🧵 + cool charts
www.carbonbrief.org/iea-fossil-f...
Reposted by Andrew MacDougall
I think, of all the slides in this report, this is the most important -- it's really worth examining closely. This illustrates why the triumph of electrotechnical is inevitable.
November 11, 2025 at 5:25 PM
I think, of all the slides in this report, this is the most important -- it's really worth examining closely. This illustrates why the triumph of electrotechnical is inevitable.
"China is now making more money from exporting green technology than America makes from exporting fossil fuels. "
www.economist.com/leaders/2025...
www.economist.com/leaders/2025...
China’s clean-energy revolution will reshape markets and politics
The world’s biggest manufacturer now has an interest in the world decarbonising
www.economist.com
November 7, 2025 at 5:45 PM
"China is now making more money from exporting green technology than America makes from exporting fossil fuels. "
www.economist.com/leaders/2025...
www.economist.com/leaders/2025...
Reposted by Andrew MacDougall
From The Archives:
Dick Cheney Vice Presidential Library Opens In Pitch-Dark, Sulfurous Underground Cave https://theonion.com/dick-cheney-vice-presidential-library-opens-in-pitch-da-1819574915/
Dick Cheney Vice Presidential Library Opens In Pitch-Dark, Sulfurous Underground Cave https://theonion.com/dick-cheney-vice-presidential-library-opens-in-pitch-da-1819574915/
November 4, 2025 at 9:30 PM
From The Archives:
Dick Cheney Vice Presidential Library Opens In Pitch-Dark, Sulfurous Underground Cave https://theonion.com/dick-cheney-vice-presidential-library-opens-in-pitch-da-1819574915/
Dick Cheney Vice Presidential Library Opens In Pitch-Dark, Sulfurous Underground Cave https://theonion.com/dick-cheney-vice-presidential-library-opens-in-pitch-da-1819574915/
Reposted by Andrew MacDougall
China Agrees To Purchase 11 U.S. Soybeans
China Agrees To Purchase 11 U.S. Soybeans
SEOUL—In a historic trade agreement that President Donald Trump touted as a major win for an American farmer, China reportedly agreed Thursday to purchase 11 U.S. soybeans. “I am extremely honored tha...
theonion.com
October 30, 2025 at 9:00 PM
China Agrees To Purchase 11 U.S. Soybeans
Reposted by Andrew MacDougall
![Comic. [two connected spacecraft hovering in space above the Earth] Houston, the view is superb. We can see the continents spread out below us, right where they’ve been since the Earth formed. [caption] I still can’t believe we developed spaceflight before we figured out that the continents moved.](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:cz73r7iyiqn26upot4jtjdhk/bafkreicp2ka5asjgkmgfdfj33vnjb5bbvk3vnyao6ju5kipxcdc23pqasm@jpeg)
October 27, 2025 at 8:05 PM
Levelized coats of solar in China has reached $27/MWh, that’s 2.7 ¢/kWh
An update from the analysts at WoodMac: yes, as of 2025, solar PV remains the cheapest source of power in the world.
And -- bonus! -- it is still getting cheaper with every passing day.
And -- bonus! -- it is still getting cheaper with every passing day.
Solar PV retains most competitive LCOE globally in 2025 – Wood Mackenzie
Solar PV technology has maintained its leading position as the most cost-competitive power generation source in 2025, according to WoodMac.
www.pv-tech.org
October 27, 2025 at 7:23 PM
Levelized coats of solar in China has reached $27/MWh, that’s 2.7 ¢/kWh
Reposted by Andrew MacDougall
An update from the analysts at WoodMac: yes, as of 2025, solar PV remains the cheapest source of power in the world.
And -- bonus! -- it is still getting cheaper with every passing day.
And -- bonus! -- it is still getting cheaper with every passing day.
Solar PV retains most competitive LCOE globally in 2025 – Wood Mackenzie
Solar PV technology has maintained its leading position as the most cost-competitive power generation source in 2025, according to WoodMac.
www.pv-tech.org
October 27, 2025 at 6:49 PM
An update from the analysts at WoodMac: yes, as of 2025, solar PV remains the cheapest source of power in the world.
And -- bonus! -- it is still getting cheaper with every passing day.
And -- bonus! -- it is still getting cheaper with every passing day.
Reposted by Andrew MacDougall
My Sunday update on explosive intensification of #HurricaneMelissa and why I fear a generational disaster is emerging
www.forbes.com/sites/marsha...
www.forbes.com/sites/marsha...
Hurricane Melissa Approaches Rare Category 5 — Four Things To Know
Hurricane Melissa is on its way to Category 5 status after explosively intensifying. Here are 4 things you need to know right now about its strength, track, and impacts.
www.forbes.com
October 26, 2025 at 12:04 PM
My Sunday update on explosive intensification of #HurricaneMelissa and why I fear a generational disaster is emerging
www.forbes.com/sites/marsha...
www.forbes.com/sites/marsha...
This is actually an astounding statistic. In the 1800s 40 acres was what was seen as necessary to feed a family. The increase in yields from the green revolution is simply astonishing, even though it came with steep environmental costs (pesticide, nitrate pollution, monoculture).
It’s even more extreme than that if you want full self-sufficiency. The average US diet requires ~2 acres of land (cropland + pasture)/person/year. So a family of 4 would need ~8 acres.
(It’s less if you eat more plants/fewer animal proteins than avg American, but it’s still a looooot of land.)
(It’s less if you eat more plants/fewer animal proteins than avg American, but it’s still a looooot of land.)
On Threads, the usual suspects are telling ppl about to lose SNAP benefits to just start a garden. As a gardener, I had to laugh. You need at LEAST an acre of land to feed a family of 4. Start-up costs are enormous. But yes, subsistence farming on the balcony of your rental apartment is the answer
October 24, 2025 at 12:10 AM
This is actually an astounding statistic. In the 1800s 40 acres was what was seen as necessary to feed a family. The increase in yields from the green revolution is simply astonishing, even though it came with steep environmental costs (pesticide, nitrate pollution, monoculture).
Reposted by Andrew MacDougall
![Comic. Confusion matrix showing renditions of different combinations, colored yellow, tan, or gray. [Air: gamma rays Y, neutrons Y, alpha particles G, light Y, sound Y, heat Y, swords Y, toxic dust Y, radio Y, sharks G] [Lead: gamma rays G, neutrons T, alpha particles G, light G, Sound Y, heat Y, swords G, toxic dust T, radio G, sharks G] [Water: gamma rays T, neutrons G, alpha particles G, light T, sound Y, heat Y, swords Y, toxic dust Y, radio G, sharks Y] [Vacuum: gamma rays Y, neutrons Y, alpha particles Y, light Y, sound G, heat T, swords Y, toxic dust Y, radio Y, sharks G] [Oven mitts: gamma rays Y, neutrons Y, alpha particles G, light G, sound T, heat G, swords Y, toxic dust Y, radio Y, sharks Y] [Armor: gamma rays Y, neutrons Y, alpha particles G, light G, sound Y, heat Y, swords G, toxic dust Y, radio G, sharks T] [Biohazard suit: gamma rays Y, neutrons Y, alpha particles G, light G, sound Y, heat Y, swords Y, toxic dust G, radio Y, sharks Y] [Faraday cage: gamma rays Y, neutrons Y, alpha particles Y, light Y, sound Y, heat Y, swords Y, toxic dust Y, radio G, sharks Y] [Shark cage: gamma rays Y, neutrons Y, alpha particles Y, light Y, sound Y, heat Y, swords Y, toxic dust Y, radio Y, sharks G]](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:cz73r7iyiqn26upot4jtjdhk/bafkreib7rzofmrqb5cvnyccnb7ftj6qroxtp55i4dqqnbp2ozun6gaxbkm@jpeg)
October 23, 2025 at 8:10 PM
Reposted by Andrew MacDougall
Great NYT article China’s fast growing nucelar industry www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
October 23, 2025 at 9:45 PM
Great NYT article China’s fast growing nucelar industry www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
Went to the wake of a former student today. I was on his supervisory committee and he defended his MSc last May.
Life is short and we never know what day might be our last.
Rest in peace Jack, you will be missed.
www.clcurry.com/obituaries/1...
Life is short and we never know what day might be our last.
Rest in peace Jack, you will be missed.
www.clcurry.com/obituaries/1...
Jacob Vaughn "Jack" Johnson (1993-2025)
Johnson, Jacob
www.clcurry.com
October 20, 2025 at 10:54 PM
Went to the wake of a former student today. I was on his supervisory committee and he defended his MSc last May.
Life is short and we never know what day might be our last.
Rest in peace Jack, you will be missed.
www.clcurry.com/obituaries/1...
Life is short and we never know what day might be our last.
Rest in peace Jack, you will be missed.
www.clcurry.com/obituaries/1...
Reposted by Andrew MacDougall
So at the university football game I sat next to a cheerful student from Japan who was telling me how much she liked the "colorful traditional costumes" and the "old folk music" and asking about the "dances," and I realized she was talking about the marching band and that she was, well, spot-on.
October 5, 2025 at 2:20 PM
So at the university football game I sat next to a cheerful student from Japan who was telling me how much she liked the "colorful traditional costumes" and the "old folk music" and asking about the "dances," and I realized she was talking about the marching band and that she was, well, spot-on.
Reposted by Andrew MacDougall
Excel spreadsheets that suggest the type of graph you might want to make are not alive. Thank’s
October 4, 2025 at 4:14 PM
Excel spreadsheets that suggest the type of graph you might want to make are not alive. Thank’s
Well that’s not good.
Trump returns to ’51st state’ rhetoric in speech to U.S. military officials
Somehow this bit didn't make it into the US stories I read...
www.ctvnews.ca/canada/artic...
Somehow this bit didn't make it into the US stories I read...
www.ctvnews.ca/canada/artic...
Trump returns to ’51st state’ rhetoric in speech to U.S. military officials
U.S. President Donald Trump returned to his “51st state” rhetoric about Canada while giving an unprecedented speech to top military leaders today.
www.ctvnews.ca
September 30, 2025 at 5:24 PM
Well that’s not good.
The NPC thing will be these calculator worshiping cultist’s downfall. Not believing that other people are real is a fatal blind spot.
A fantastic guide to the current terminology & thinking of the Silicon Valley bros, who are riding high at the moment.
(I really can not exaggerate how aesthetically & morally repulsive I find every bit of this.)
(I really can not exaggerate how aesthetically & morally repulsive I find every bit of this.)
are you high-agency or an NPC?
AI anxiety and the new language of silicon valley
jasmi.news
September 28, 2025 at 11:01 PM
The NPC thing will be these calculator worshiping cultist’s downfall. Not believing that other people are real is a fatal blind spot.
#NovaScotia we she keep an eye on this.
One of the best examples of a #Fujiwhara I’ve ever seen on today’s Canadian model!! Storms doing a 360 dance!🕺
Not to say it’s correct, but this is right out of a text book!
#Humberto #Imelda #Hurricane
Not to say it’s correct, but this is right out of a text book!
#Humberto #Imelda #Hurricane
September 25, 2025 at 10:20 PM
#NovaScotia we she keep an eye on this.
Reposted by Andrew MacDougall
In a UN speech today, President Trump said that "all of these [climate] predictions were wrong".
Back in 2019 I led a research effort to digitize old climate model projections and assess how well they did. Turns out they got future warming pretty spot on!
Back in 2019 I led a research effort to digitize old climate model projections and assess how well they did. Turns out they got future warming pretty spot on!
September 23, 2025 at 5:01 PM
In a UN speech today, President Trump said that "all of these [climate] predictions were wrong".
Back in 2019 I led a research effort to digitize old climate model projections and assess how well they did. Turns out they got future warming pretty spot on!
Back in 2019 I led a research effort to digitize old climate model projections and assess how well they did. Turns out they got future warming pretty spot on!
There is no algorithm for truth.
"In a landmark study, OpenAI researchers reveal that large language models will always produce plausible but false outputs, even with perfect data, due to fundamental statistical and computational limits."
www.computerworld.com/article/4059...
www.computerworld.com/article/4059...
OpenAI admits AI hallucinations are mathematically inevitable, not just engineering flaws
In a landmark study, OpenAI researchers reveal that large language models will always produce plausible but false outputs, even with perfect data, due to fundamental statistical and computational limi...
www.computerworld.com
September 21, 2025 at 11:10 PM
There is no algorithm for truth.
Reposted by Andrew MacDougall
Also, while it's a bit tangential to the main issue here, I will point out that this represents a formal White House Press Office statement regarding a single individual's personal political contributions over more than a decade that cumulative amount to less than $1,000. 👀
September 19, 2025 at 5:19 PM
Also, while it's a bit tangential to the main issue here, I will point out that this represents a formal White House Press Office statement regarding a single individual's personal political contributions over more than a decade that cumulative amount to less than $1,000. 👀