Alec van Helsdingen
@abmvanhelsdingen.bsky.social
genealogist, statistics PhD candidate
https://abmvanhelsdingen.github.io/index.html
https://abmvanhelsdingen.github.io/index.html
Netherlands Election Forecast
D66 27 (+1)
VVD 22
GL-PvdA 21 (+1)
PVV 19 (-7)
CDA 16 (-2)
JA21 12 (+3)
FvD 11 (+4)
Others 22
+/- versus October 2025 election
D66 27 (+1)
VVD 22
GL-PvdA 21 (+1)
PVV 19 (-7)
CDA 16 (-2)
JA21 12 (+3)
FvD 11 (+4)
Others 22
+/- versus October 2025 election
February 6, 2026 at 7:43 AM
Netherlands Election Forecast
D66 27 (+1)
VVD 22
GL-PvdA 21 (+1)
PVV 19 (-7)
CDA 16 (-2)
JA21 12 (+3)
FvD 11 (+4)
Others 22
+/- versus October 2025 election
D66 27 (+1)
VVD 22
GL-PvdA 21 (+1)
PVV 19 (-7)
CDA 16 (-2)
JA21 12 (+3)
FvD 11 (+4)
Others 22
+/- versus October 2025 election
I was curious about how geographically spread out my ancestors were going back in time. I know where each of my 32 ggg-grandparents were born, but of course many lines peter out further back.
January 3, 2026 at 9:37 PM
I was curious about how geographically spread out my ancestors were going back in time. I know where each of my 32 ggg-grandparents were born, but of course many lines peter out further back.
Reposted by Alec van Helsdingen
Reposted by Alec van Helsdingen
Whether it’s Pete Buttigieg learning to speak eight languages or Donald Trump successfully identifying a giraffe, there’s plenty of intellectual accomplishments on both sides of the aisle.
December 20, 2025 at 10:44 PM
Whether it’s Pete Buttigieg learning to speak eight languages or Donald Trump successfully identifying a giraffe, there’s plenty of intellectual accomplishments on both sides of the aisle.
We forecast that for an election held now, National has a 70% chance of winning an overhang (more electorates than seats their party vote entitles them to). They have lost ~7% of the party vote since 2023, but only look like losing a handful of seats.
December 15, 2025 at 12:26 AM
We forecast that for an election held now, National has a 70% chance of winning an overhang (more electorates than seats their party vote entitles them to). They have lost ~7% of the party vote since 2023, but only look like losing a handful of seats.
For the first time, the forecast includes predictions for each electorate. This would not have been possible without the work of @overhang-aonz.bsky.social calculating the 2023 results if the new electorate boundaries had been in effect.
December 15, 2025 at 12:24 AM
For the first time, the forecast includes predictions for each electorate. This would not have been possible without the work of @overhang-aonz.bsky.social calculating the 2023 results if the new electorate boundaries had been in effect.
New Zealand Election Forecast
Labour 34.1 (-0.2)
National 31.3 (+0.8)
Greens 9.3 (-0.3)
NZF 9.2 (+0.3)
ACT 8.9 (+0.8)
TPM 2.0 (-1.6)
+/- versus November
#nzpol
Labour 34.1 (-0.2)
National 31.3 (+0.8)
Greens 9.3 (-0.3)
NZF 9.2 (+0.3)
ACT 8.9 (+0.8)
TPM 2.0 (-1.6)
+/- versus November
#nzpol
December 15, 2025 at 12:23 AM
New Zealand Election Forecast
Labour 34.1 (-0.2)
National 31.3 (+0.8)
Greens 9.3 (-0.3)
NZF 9.2 (+0.3)
ACT 8.9 (+0.8)
TPM 2.0 (-1.6)
+/- versus November
#nzpol
Labour 34.1 (-0.2)
National 31.3 (+0.8)
Greens 9.3 (-0.3)
NZF 9.2 (+0.3)
ACT 8.9 (+0.8)
TPM 2.0 (-1.6)
+/- versus November
#nzpol
Reposted by Alec van Helsdingen
Now out via the newsletter: the final exhaustive (and exhausting) analysis of the effects of the 2025 boundary review on electorate contests.
theoverhangaonz.substack.com/p/the-overha...
theoverhangaonz.substack.com/p/the-overha...
November 28, 2025 at 12:30 AM
Now out via the newsletter: the final exhaustive (and exhausting) analysis of the effects of the 2025 boundary review on electorate contests.
theoverhangaonz.substack.com/p/the-overha...
theoverhangaonz.substack.com/p/the-overha...
Reposted by Alec van Helsdingen
It's not even 10:30 and I've already contacted 3 different parishes for help with their records today. I would so love if RC parishes would allow digitisation of their records in line with data protection parameters. It would stop me bothering them!! #IrishGenealogy
November 13, 2025 at 10:19 AM
It's not even 10:30 and I've already contacted 3 different parishes for help with their records today. I would so love if RC parishes would allow digitisation of their records in line with data protection parameters. It would stop me bothering them!! #IrishGenealogy
New Zealand Election Forecast
Labour 34.3 (+1.8)
National 30.5 (+0.2)
Greens 9.6 (-0.6)
NZF 8.9 (-0.8)
ACT 8.1 (-0.2)
TPM 3.6 (-0.4)
+/- versus October
Labour 34.3 (+1.8)
National 30.5 (+0.2)
Greens 9.6 (-0.6)
NZF 8.9 (-0.8)
ACT 8.1 (-0.2)
TPM 3.6 (-0.4)
+/- versus October
November 14, 2025 at 12:40 AM
New Zealand Election Forecast
Labour 34.3 (+1.8)
National 30.5 (+0.2)
Greens 9.6 (-0.6)
NZF 8.9 (-0.8)
ACT 8.1 (-0.2)
TPM 3.6 (-0.4)
+/- versus October
Labour 34.3 (+1.8)
National 30.5 (+0.2)
Greens 9.6 (-0.6)
NZF 8.9 (-0.8)
ACT 8.1 (-0.2)
TPM 3.6 (-0.4)
+/- versus October
Reposted by Alec van Helsdingen
Netherlands, Geen Stijl projection based on 50% counted:
Seat projection national parliament
PVV-PfE: 26 (-11)
D66-RE: 26 (+17)
VVD-RE: 22 (-2)
GL/PvdA-G/EFA|S&D: 20 (-5)
CDA-EPP: 19 (+14)
JA21~ECR: 9 (+8)
...
+/- vs. Last election result
➤ europeelects.eu/netherlands
Seat projection national parliament
PVV-PfE: 26 (-11)
D66-RE: 26 (+17)
VVD-RE: 22 (-2)
GL/PvdA-G/EFA|S&D: 20 (-5)
CDA-EPP: 19 (+14)
JA21~ECR: 9 (+8)
...
+/- vs. Last election result
➤ europeelects.eu/netherlands
October 30, 2025 at 12:50 AM
Netherlands, Geen Stijl projection based on 50% counted:
Seat projection national parliament
PVV-PfE: 26 (-11)
D66-RE: 26 (+17)
VVD-RE: 22 (-2)
GL/PvdA-G/EFA|S&D: 20 (-5)
CDA-EPP: 19 (+14)
JA21~ECR: 9 (+8)
...
+/- vs. Last election result
➤ europeelects.eu/netherlands
Seat projection national parliament
PVV-PfE: 26 (-11)
D66-RE: 26 (+17)
VVD-RE: 22 (-2)
GL/PvdA-G/EFA|S&D: 20 (-5)
CDA-EPP: 19 (+14)
JA21~ECR: 9 (+8)
...
+/- vs. Last election result
➤ europeelects.eu/netherlands
Reposted by Alec van Helsdingen
Netherlands, 9:00 PM Ipsos-I&O exit poll:
Seat projection national parliament
D66-RE: 27 (+18)
PVV-PfE: 25 (-12)
VVD-RE: 23 (-1)
GL/PvdA-G/EFA|S&D: 20 (-5)
CDA-EPP: 19 (+14)
JA21~ECR: 9 (+8)
FvD-ESN: 6 (+3)
BBB-EPP: 4 (-3)
...
+/- vs. Last election result
➤ europeelects.eu/netherlands
Seat projection national parliament
D66-RE: 27 (+18)
PVV-PfE: 25 (-12)
VVD-RE: 23 (-1)
GL/PvdA-G/EFA|S&D: 20 (-5)
CDA-EPP: 19 (+14)
JA21~ECR: 9 (+8)
FvD-ESN: 6 (+3)
BBB-EPP: 4 (-3)
...
+/- vs. Last election result
➤ europeelects.eu/netherlands
October 29, 2025 at 8:03 PM
Netherlands, 9:00 PM Ipsos-I&O exit poll:
Seat projection national parliament
D66-RE: 27 (+18)
PVV-PfE: 25 (-12)
VVD-RE: 23 (-1)
GL/PvdA-G/EFA|S&D: 20 (-5)
CDA-EPP: 19 (+14)
JA21~ECR: 9 (+8)
FvD-ESN: 6 (+3)
BBB-EPP: 4 (-3)
...
+/- vs. Last election result
➤ europeelects.eu/netherlands
Seat projection national parliament
D66-RE: 27 (+18)
PVV-PfE: 25 (-12)
VVD-RE: 23 (-1)
GL/PvdA-G/EFA|S&D: 20 (-5)
CDA-EPP: 19 (+14)
JA21~ECR: 9 (+8)
FvD-ESN: 6 (+3)
BBB-EPP: 4 (-3)
...
+/- vs. Last election result
➤ europeelects.eu/netherlands
Netherlands Election Forecast
PVV 28 (-4)
GL-PvdA 23 (-2)
CDA 22 (-2)
D66 19 (+6)
VVD 16 (+3)
JA21 12 (+1)
+/- versus 22 Sep
PVV 28 (-4)
GL-PvdA 23 (-2)
CDA 22 (-2)
D66 19 (+6)
VVD 16 (+3)
JA21 12 (+1)
+/- versus 22 Sep
October 28, 2025 at 7:25 AM
Netherlands Election Forecast
PVV 28 (-4)
GL-PvdA 23 (-2)
CDA 22 (-2)
D66 19 (+6)
VVD 16 (+3)
JA21 12 (+1)
+/- versus 22 Sep
PVV 28 (-4)
GL-PvdA 23 (-2)
CDA 22 (-2)
D66 19 (+6)
VVD 16 (+3)
JA21 12 (+1)
+/- versus 22 Sep
Reposted by Alec van Helsdingen
Final result of #aras25:
Electorate: 3,614,450
Votes cast: 1,656,436 (45.8%)
Spoilt: 213,738 (12.9%)
Valid poll: 1,442,698
Connolly: 914,143 (63.3%)
Humphreys: 424,987 (29.5%)
Gavin: 103,568 (7.2%)
Catherine Connolly is elected the tenth President of Ireland.
Electorate: 3,614,450
Votes cast: 1,656,436 (45.8%)
Spoilt: 213,738 (12.9%)
Valid poll: 1,442,698
Connolly: 914,143 (63.3%)
Humphreys: 424,987 (29.5%)
Gavin: 103,568 (7.2%)
Catherine Connolly is elected the tenth President of Ireland.
October 25, 2025 at 7:03 PM
Final result of #aras25:
Electorate: 3,614,450
Votes cast: 1,656,436 (45.8%)
Spoilt: 213,738 (12.9%)
Valid poll: 1,442,698
Connolly: 914,143 (63.3%)
Humphreys: 424,987 (29.5%)
Gavin: 103,568 (7.2%)
Catherine Connolly is elected the tenth President of Ireland.
Electorate: 3,614,450
Votes cast: 1,656,436 (45.8%)
Spoilt: 213,738 (12.9%)
Valid poll: 1,442,698
Connolly: 914,143 (63.3%)
Humphreys: 424,987 (29.5%)
Gavin: 103,568 (7.2%)
Catherine Connolly is elected the tenth President of Ireland.
New Zealand Election forecast
Labour 32.5
National 30.3 (-0.9)
Greens 10.2 (+0.2)
NZF 9.7 (+1.4)
ACT 8.3 (-0.4)
TPM 4.0 (-0.2)
+/- versus September
Labour 32.5
National 30.3 (-0.9)
Greens 10.2 (+0.2)
NZF 9.7 (+1.4)
ACT 8.3 (-0.4)
TPM 4.0 (-0.2)
+/- versus September
October 22, 2025 at 12:48 AM
New Zealand Election forecast
Labour 32.5
National 30.3 (-0.9)
Greens 10.2 (+0.2)
NZF 9.7 (+1.4)
ACT 8.3 (-0.4)
TPM 4.0 (-0.2)
+/- versus September
Labour 32.5
National 30.3 (-0.9)
Greens 10.2 (+0.2)
NZF 9.7 (+1.4)
ACT 8.3 (-0.4)
TPM 4.0 (-0.2)
+/- versus September
New Zealand Election Forecast
Labour 32.5 (+0.7)
National 31.2 (-0.6)
Greens 10.0 (-0.3)
ACT 8.7
NZF 8.3 (+0.5)
TPM 4.2
+/- versus July
#nzpol
Labour 32.5 (+0.7)
National 31.2 (-0.6)
Greens 10.0 (-0.3)
ACT 8.7
NZF 8.3 (+0.5)
TPM 4.2
+/- versus July
#nzpol
New Zealand
abmvanhelsdingen.github.io
September 1, 2025 at 10:02 PM
New Zealand Election Forecast
Labour 32.5 (+0.7)
National 31.2 (-0.6)
Greens 10.0 (-0.3)
ACT 8.7
NZF 8.3 (+0.5)
TPM 4.2
+/- versus July
#nzpol
Labour 32.5 (+0.7)
National 31.2 (-0.6)
Greens 10.0 (-0.3)
ACT 8.7
NZF 8.3 (+0.5)
TPM 4.2
+/- versus July
#nzpol
Netherlands election forecast
PVV 32 (+2)
GL-PvdA 26
CDA 22
VVD 16 (-4)
D66 12
JA21 9 (+1)
+/- vs 5 August
more: abmvanhelsdingen.github.io/nederland.html
PVV 32 (+2)
GL-PvdA 26
CDA 22
VVD 16 (-4)
D66 12
JA21 9 (+1)
+/- vs 5 August
more: abmvanhelsdingen.github.io/nederland.html
August 30, 2025 at 7:26 AM
Netherlands election forecast
PVV 32 (+2)
GL-PvdA 26
CDA 22
VVD 16 (-4)
D66 12
JA21 9 (+1)
+/- vs 5 August
more: abmvanhelsdingen.github.io/nederland.html
PVV 32 (+2)
GL-PvdA 26
CDA 22
VVD 16 (-4)
D66 12
JA21 9 (+1)
+/- vs 5 August
more: abmvanhelsdingen.github.io/nederland.html
Reposted by Alec van Helsdingen
Great day at the Auckland Family History Expo, but we still have a day to go - I hope you can join us tomorrow! genealogy.org.nz/Auckland-Fam... #genealogy #FamilyHistory
August 9, 2025 at 9:44 AM
Great day at the Auckland Family History Expo, but we still have a day to go - I hope you can join us tomorrow! genealogy.org.nz/Auckland-Fam... #genealogy #FamilyHistory
Netherlands election forecast
PVV 30 (-1)
GL-PvdA 26 (-1)
CDA 22 (+3)
VVD 20 (-4)
D66 12 (+1)
JA21 8 (+4)
+/- vs June
more: abmvanhelsdingen.github.io/nederland.html
PVV 30 (-1)
GL-PvdA 26 (-1)
CDA 22 (+3)
VVD 20 (-4)
D66 12 (+1)
JA21 8 (+4)
+/- vs June
more: abmvanhelsdingen.github.io/nederland.html
August 5, 2025 at 8:04 AM
Netherlands election forecast
PVV 30 (-1)
GL-PvdA 26 (-1)
CDA 22 (+3)
VVD 20 (-4)
D66 12 (+1)
JA21 8 (+4)
+/- vs June
more: abmvanhelsdingen.github.io/nederland.html
PVV 30 (-1)
GL-PvdA 26 (-1)
CDA 22 (+3)
VVD 20 (-4)
D66 12 (+1)
JA21 8 (+4)
+/- vs June
more: abmvanhelsdingen.github.io/nederland.html
New Zealand Election Forecast
National 31.8 (-0.3)
Labour 31.8 (+0.9)
Greens 10.3 (-0.3)
ACT 8.7 (-0.2)
NZF 7.8 (+0.7)
TPM 4.2 (-0.4)
+/- versus May
more: abmvanhelsdingen.github.io/nz.html
#nzpol
National 31.8 (-0.3)
Labour 31.8 (+0.9)
Greens 10.3 (-0.3)
ACT 8.7 (-0.2)
NZF 7.8 (+0.7)
TPM 4.2 (-0.4)
+/- versus May
more: abmvanhelsdingen.github.io/nz.html
#nzpol
July 31, 2025 at 8:09 AM
New Zealand Election Forecast
National 31.8 (-0.3)
Labour 31.8 (+0.9)
Greens 10.3 (-0.3)
ACT 8.7 (-0.2)
NZF 7.8 (+0.7)
TPM 4.2 (-0.4)
+/- versus May
more: abmvanhelsdingen.github.io/nz.html
#nzpol
National 31.8 (-0.3)
Labour 31.8 (+0.9)
Greens 10.3 (-0.3)
ACT 8.7 (-0.2)
NZF 7.8 (+0.7)
TPM 4.2 (-0.4)
+/- versus May
more: abmvanhelsdingen.github.io/nz.html
#nzpol
Netherlands Election Forecast
PVV 31 (+1)
GL-PvdA 27
VVD 24 (-2)
CDA 19 (+1)
D66 11
SP 6
Others 32
+/- versus April
more: abmvanhelsdingen.github.io/nederland.html
PVV 31 (+1)
GL-PvdA 27
VVD 24 (-2)
CDA 19 (+1)
D66 11
SP 6
Others 32
+/- versus April
more: abmvanhelsdingen.github.io/nederland.html
June 14, 2025 at 9:03 AM
Netherlands Election Forecast
PVV 31 (+1)
GL-PvdA 27
VVD 24 (-2)
CDA 19 (+1)
D66 11
SP 6
Others 32
+/- versus April
more: abmvanhelsdingen.github.io/nederland.html
PVV 31 (+1)
GL-PvdA 27
VVD 24 (-2)
CDA 19 (+1)
D66 11
SP 6
Others 32
+/- versus April
more: abmvanhelsdingen.github.io/nederland.html
My forecasts now include predictions for the 7 Māori electorates.
All incumbents are predicted to win re-election. We give Labour a 74% chance of retaining Ikaroa-Rāwhiti, but more than a 93% chance for TPM to win in each of the other six seats.
abmvanhelsdingen.github.io/nz.html
#nzpol
All incumbents are predicted to win re-election. We give Labour a 74% chance of retaining Ikaroa-Rāwhiti, but more than a 93% chance for TPM to win in each of the other six seats.
abmvanhelsdingen.github.io/nz.html
#nzpol
New Zealand
abmvanhelsdingen.github.io
June 7, 2025 at 9:45 PM
My forecasts now include predictions for the 7 Māori electorates.
All incumbents are predicted to win re-election. We give Labour a 74% chance of retaining Ikaroa-Rāwhiti, but more than a 93% chance for TPM to win in each of the other six seats.
abmvanhelsdingen.github.io/nz.html
#nzpol
All incumbents are predicted to win re-election. We give Labour a 74% chance of retaining Ikaroa-Rāwhiti, but more than a 93% chance for TPM to win in each of the other six seats.
abmvanhelsdingen.github.io/nz.html
#nzpol
New Zealand Election Forecast
National 32.1% (-0.3)
Labour 30.9% (-0.3)
Greens 10.6 (+0.4)
ACT 8.9% (+0.1)
NZF 7.1% (+0.9)
TPM 4.6% (-0.2)
+/- since April
#nzpol
National 32.1% (-0.3)
Labour 30.9% (-0.3)
Greens 10.6 (+0.4)
ACT 8.9% (+0.1)
NZF 7.1% (+0.9)
TPM 4.6% (-0.2)
+/- since April
#nzpol
May 23, 2025 at 7:59 AM
New Zealand Election Forecast
National 32.1% (-0.3)
Labour 30.9% (-0.3)
Greens 10.6 (+0.4)
ACT 8.9% (+0.1)
NZF 7.1% (+0.9)
TPM 4.6% (-0.2)
+/- since April
#nzpol
National 32.1% (-0.3)
Labour 30.9% (-0.3)
Greens 10.6 (+0.4)
ACT 8.9% (+0.1)
NZF 7.1% (+0.9)
TPM 4.6% (-0.2)
+/- since April
#nzpol
Netherlands Election Forecast
PVV 30 (-2)
GL-PvdA 27 (+1)
VVD 26 (+2)
CDA 18 (+1)
D66 11 (-2)
SP 6 (-1)
Others 32
+/- versus March
more: abmvanhelsdingen.github.io/nederland.html
PVV 30 (-2)
GL-PvdA 27 (+1)
VVD 26 (+2)
CDA 18 (+1)
D66 11 (-2)
SP 6 (-1)
Others 32
+/- versus March
more: abmvanhelsdingen.github.io/nederland.html
April 22, 2025 at 7:57 AM
Netherlands Election Forecast
PVV 30 (-2)
GL-PvdA 27 (+1)
VVD 26 (+2)
CDA 18 (+1)
D66 11 (-2)
SP 6 (-1)
Others 32
+/- versus March
more: abmvanhelsdingen.github.io/nederland.html
PVV 30 (-2)
GL-PvdA 27 (+1)
VVD 26 (+2)
CDA 18 (+1)
D66 11 (-2)
SP 6 (-1)
Others 32
+/- versus March
more: abmvanhelsdingen.github.io/nederland.html