yassa
@yassa13.bsky.social
Finance, Investing, House & Techno, and Liverpool FC - 🇬🇧 in Marin County
Eeeeek
the mother of all market top metaphors just dropped
(bonus points for looking exactly like it was created by slop AI)
omg
(bonus points for looking exactly like it was created by slop AI)
omg
December 11, 2025 at 1:37 PM
Eeeeek
Not a semis expert and increasingly feels like you need to be to have any confidence being long NVDA. Seems uninvestable to generalists in the meantime until proven otherwise, and the more cracks in its moat the less there is an obvious destination for its flow (note AMZN/GOOGL/AVGO…
No public link yet but Amazon says they're able to beat NVIDIA on price with their new Trainium3 accelerator. Just one problem: "Amazon’s chips lack the deep software libraries that help customers get Nvidia’s graphics processing units up and running fast."
December 2, 2025 at 4:35 PM
Not a semis expert and increasingly feels like you need to be to have any confidence being long NVDA. Seems uninvestable to generalists in the meantime until proven otherwise, and the more cracks in its moat the less there is an obvious destination for its flow (note AMZN/GOOGL/AVGO…
Seems like it could be important…
on.ft.com/43tkLuz ‘Phantom’ data centres muddy forecasts for US power needs
on.ft.com/43tkLuz ‘Phantom’ data centres muddy forecasts for US power needs
‘Phantom’ data centres muddy forecasts for US power needs
Developers are overstating energy needs and keeping projects alive even after they are no longer viable
on.ft.com
November 13, 2025 at 3:00 PM
Seems like it could be important…
on.ft.com/43tkLuz ‘Phantom’ data centres muddy forecasts for US power needs
on.ft.com/43tkLuz ‘Phantom’ data centres muddy forecasts for US power needs
No real volume yet but this is the one to watch and will trend higher.
November 13, 2025 at 5:57 AM
No real volume yet but this is the one to watch and will trend higher.
Thought Halloween was last month!
November 11, 2025 at 10:25 PM
Thought Halloween was last month!
In case anyone’s curious, these are estimates from JPM’s econ desk on when major data releases will be published post-shutdown
November 11, 2025 at 3:56 PM
In case anyone’s curious, these are estimates from JPM’s econ desk on when major data releases will be published post-shutdown
Oh boy… interesting interview but main takeaway is Sam Altman’s defensiveness when challenged on OpenAI’s economics. Yikes and wouldn’t be surprised to see some ripple effects in equity markets this week (MSFT an obvious candidate for weakness, but also NVDA in light…
youtube.com/watch?v=Gnl8...
youtube.com/watch?v=Gnl8...
All things AI w @altcap @sama & @satyanadella. A Halloween Special. 🎃🔥BG2 w/ Brad Gerstner
YouTube video by Bg2 Pod
youtube.com
November 2, 2025 at 2:23 PM
Oh boy… interesting interview but main takeaway is Sam Altman’s defensiveness when challenged on OpenAI’s economics. Yikes and wouldn’t be surprised to see some ripple effects in equity markets this week (MSFT an obvious candidate for weakness, but also NVDA in light…
youtube.com/watch?v=Gnl8...
youtube.com/watch?v=Gnl8...
Liverpool continuing to look shaky after going 2-0 and continuing to just about do enough for three points. Not complaining necessarily, but feels we are living a charmed life…
September 20, 2025 at 1:56 PM
Liverpool continuing to look shaky after going 2-0 and continuing to just about do enough for three points. Not complaining necessarily, but feels we are living a charmed life…
Funniest post I’ve seen on bluesky in my nearly year here!
didn't know Ruben Amorim was managing the Fed
Deutsche Bank takes a shot at putting names to the dot plot. I call this chart: Hammack Vs. Miran
September 19, 2025 at 8:18 PM
Funniest post I’ve seen on bluesky in my nearly year here!
I kinda get why, but it’s objectively funny that Treasuries are mostly rallying today.
Stepping back, I’m not sure I have ever felt more uneasy about the outlook for US financial markets (and the rest!), though similarly I’m not terribly sure that I’m “bearish” either… just all feels very odd.
Stepping back, I’m not sure I have ever felt more uneasy about the outlook for US financial markets (and the rest!), though similarly I’m not terribly sure that I’m “bearish” either… just all feels very odd.
I don't have the full statement yet but the Fed has finally spoken
*FEDERAL RESERVE: GOVERNORS MAY ONLY BE REMOVED 'FOR CAUSE'
*FEDERAL RESERVE WILL ABIDE BY ANY COURT DECISION: FED STATEMENT
*FEDERAL RESERVE: REMOVAL PROTECTIONS SERVE AS SAFEGUARD
*FEDERAL RESERVE: GOVERNORS MAY ONLY BE REMOVED 'FOR CAUSE'
*FEDERAL RESERVE WILL ABIDE BY ANY COURT DECISION: FED STATEMENT
*FEDERAL RESERVE: REMOVAL PROTECTIONS SERVE AS SAFEGUARD
August 26, 2025 at 7:56 PM
I kinda get why, but it’s objectively funny that Treasuries are mostly rallying today.
Stepping back, I’m not sure I have ever felt more uneasy about the outlook for US financial markets (and the rest!), though similarly I’m not terribly sure that I’m “bearish” either… just all feels very odd.
Stepping back, I’m not sure I have ever felt more uneasy about the outlook for US financial markets (and the rest!), though similarly I’m not terribly sure that I’m “bearish” either… just all feels very odd.
WMT conference call + Fedspeak pushing back on September cut seems like a reality check for equity futures this AM…
August 21, 2025 at 12:18 PM
WMT conference call + Fedspeak pushing back on September cut seems like a reality check for equity futures this AM…
They don’t ring a bell at the top, but between this…
$ARKK Cathie Wood's $ARKK fund received its highest-ever weekly inflow recently, just shy of $2.7 billion.
August 20, 2025 at 12:35 PM
They don’t ring a bell at the top, but between this…
Assuming from the price action that iPhones are exempted from India tariffs? Do we even have to look?
Main Street/Wall Street pair trade in shambles
Main Street/Wall Street pair trade in shambles
August 6, 2025 at 2:32 PM
Assuming from the price action that iPhones are exempted from India tariffs? Do we even have to look?
Main Street/Wall Street pair trade in shambles
Main Street/Wall Street pair trade in shambles
It’s an interesting question. To the extent one wants to game out the impact this has on TIPS, and to the extent you think the BLS stuff should have an impact… does this raise (measured) inflation expectations or lower them? @fullcarry.net what’s your view here, sure you will have a smart one…
Wednesday to-do list:
- walk dog
- get haircut
- unload my TIPS
- walk dog
- get haircut
- unload my TIPS
August 6, 2025 at 3:36 AM
It’s an interesting question. To the extent one wants to game out the impact this has on TIPS, and to the extent you think the BLS stuff should have an impact… does this raise (measured) inflation expectations or lower them? @fullcarry.net what’s your view here, sure you will have a smart one…
I have mixed views here,though in a way this “deal” seems to fit both sides reasonably well:US policy is far more focused on corporate America than the outcome of the average citizen,while you could argue that the EU is almost the exact opposite (and is probably focused on median than mean outcomes)
Question for EU residents:
Is this 👇 view widely held across the EU?
Is this 👇 view widely held across the EU?
As a European, I can tell you that this is not going to end well; the corrupt cowards who agreed to this deal will soon be gone, and a boycott of American goods will begin. Better no deal than agreeing to an unfair deal with a pedophile con artist. who is surrounded by ass-kissers and fools.
July 28, 2025 at 12:58 AM
I have mixed views here,though in a way this “deal” seems to fit both sides reasonably well:US policy is far more focused on corporate America than the outcome of the average citizen,while you could argue that the EU is almost the exact opposite (and is probably focused on median than mean outcomes)
MS out with a really interesting note this week suggesting that between GOOGL, MSFT, AAPL, AMZN and META, BBB provisions on bonus depreciation and upfront R&D expensing are poised to boost megacap tech Free Cash Flown by hundreds of billions of Dollars over the next few years, with those 5 adding…
July 26, 2025 at 1:59 PM
MS out with a really interesting note this week suggesting that between GOOGL, MSFT, AAPL, AMZN and META, BBB provisions on bonus depreciation and upfront R&D expensing are poised to boost megacap tech Free Cash Flown by hundreds of billions of Dollars over the next few years, with those 5 adding…
Hope I’m wrong, but it’s starting to feel like a question of when not if. Intuitively would expect markets to plunge if it happens, though starting to wonder if equities and perhaps even treasuries may take the “dovish” element more literally than perhaps they should,leaving a (much) weaker Dollar…
POLITICO: “.. Several Republicans left the Oval Office meeting under the impression that Trump is about to move against Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Meredith writes in. Rep. Anna Paulina Luna posted to X last night that an announcement is “imminent.”
www.politico.com/newsletters/...
www.politico.com/newsletters/...
Trump puts out another fire for Johnson
Speaker Mike Johnson is trying again to pass landmark cryptocurrency legislation this week after Tuesday’s failed rule vote. This time, President Donald Trump says he has the votes.
www.politico.com
July 16, 2025 at 1:14 PM
Hope I’m wrong, but it’s starting to feel like a question of when not if. Intuitively would expect markets to plunge if it happens, though starting to wonder if equities and perhaps even treasuries may take the “dovish” element more literally than perhaps they should,leaving a (much) weaker Dollar…
Oasis in Manchester last night looked like a vibe. Starting to get pretty excited to see them in a few weeks!
Vid is from *before* the first opener band came on!
youtube.com/shorts/85_5X...
Vid is from *before* the first opener band came on!
youtube.com/shorts/85_5X...
The Stage With Cast Heaton Park Tonight. Oasis Gig. 📸 Ben Walker. #Cast #Oasis #HeatonPark
YouTube video by The Music Tag
youtube.com
July 12, 2025 at 2:47 PM
Oasis in Manchester last night looked like a vibe. Starting to get pretty excited to see them in a few weeks!
Vid is from *before* the first opener band came on!
youtube.com/shorts/85_5X...
Vid is from *before* the first opener band came on!
youtube.com/shorts/85_5X...
I have been too negative for probably a month or two now, but really starting to question how much more of this the market can take – particularly at ~23x fwd. Not my lane, but wonder how much the prospect of continued legal challenges to the tariffs may be dampening impact (vs April) + obvs TACO
It’s absolutely wild to me that a 25-10d SPY put spread can be had for 3 vol points while stuff like this is dropping every night. (White background text and chart is from my evening note tonight)
![07/10/2025 20:27:51 [BN]
(Bloomberg) -- President Donald Trump will levy a 35% tariff on goods coming into the US from Canada, he said in a post on Truth Social. The tariff level would take effect from Aug. 1.
It's not clear whether a current exemption for goods traded under the USMCA trade pact would be extended or ended.
Trump is also eyeing blanket tariffs of 15% to 20% on most trading partners, he said in an interview with NBC News Thursday, adding that the exact levels are being worked out now. The current blanket tariff rate is 10%.
Taken together, the moves signal no retreat from his flagship economic policy, with Trump noting to NBC the recent rise in US equity markets even as Trump plans higher tariff rates on major trading partners that would start within weeks.
The president has spent the week sending missives to trading partners, informing them of new rates that will kick in on Aug. 1 if they cannot negotiate better terms. Letters to members of the European Union are also expected shortly.](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:pnx2fjuannbdpy3337ggthpp/bafkreifoa6jyvvm2dyaqqyatjvvz2hadd5cnmgf6rrvwfo6io43ph66nfu@jpeg)
July 11, 2025 at 1:15 PM
I have been too negative for probably a month or two now, but really starting to question how much more of this the market can take – particularly at ~23x fwd. Not my lane, but wonder how much the prospect of continued legal challenges to the tariffs may be dampening impact (vs April) + obvs TACO
It’s kind of amazing how much more usual vibes have become compared with polls over the last decade…
June 25, 2025 at 3:22 AM
It’s kind of amazing how much more usual vibes have become compared with polls over the last decade…
At the risk of pulling a sort of “Reverse Trichet”, I’m kinda starting to agree. Could we be in a different place in a few months? Sure, and I honestly expect we probably will… but that different place is probably higher CPI *and* higher unemployment, and it’s not clear FFR does much for the former.
June 11, 2025 at 4:24 PM
At the risk of pulling a sort of “Reverse Trichet”, I’m kinda starting to agree. Could we be in a different place in a few months? Sure, and I honestly expect we probably will… but that different place is probably higher CPI *and* higher unemployment, and it’s not clear FFR does much for the former.
Unfortunately did not think to place a bet…
Looks headed for 5-0
June 1, 2025 at 1:17 PM
Unfortunately did not think to place a bet…
Reposted by yassa
What could possibly go wrong
NEW: The Trump administration's fiscal year 2026 budget request's appendix says with no details: "The President's Budget proposes to reorganize the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the Census Bureau at the Department of Commerce"
www.documentcloud.org/documents/25...
www.documentcloud.org/documents/25...
May 31, 2025 at 1:44 PM
What could possibly go wrong