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William Lane

@williamjtlane.bsky.social

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Policy, Public Affairs and Electoral Analysis 'Political Analyst' - Aaron H. Ellis Views my own Writes at https://medium.com/@williamjtlane

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William Lane @williamjtlane.bsky.social · 12d

NEW ARTICLE

Well I promised a deep electoral dive for Labour's Conference special, and here it is!

Read about the ongoing fall of Labour's 2024 success in the South of England, and what that could mean for a potential Lib-Lab pact in 2029.

open.substack.com/pub/williamj...

Is Labour's Support Draining Out of the South?

Only a year on from a stunning political upset in the South East, Labour’s support appears to be draining away incredibly fast. Is this trend reversible, or are Labour on course for a major reversal?

open.substack.com

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William Lane @williamjtlane.bsky.social · 12h

My hopeful take is that AI will lead to a surge in interest in human creativity in both social and professional spaces

Because the one thing LLMs can't do is create new ideas, the response for human creatives will be to be unique and different in order to keep a niche, both socially and monetarily

Starfish Who Can’t Think Something Witty @irhottakes.bsky.social · 13h

Idle prediction: We see crafts like knitting, model airplanes, etc. become more popular because you can't ask Chat GPT to make you a sweater or glue together a P-51 yet and therefore they become more impressive feats relative to other hobbies you can "outsource."

William Lane @williamjtlane.bsky.social · 1d

Brown's argument is about public perception broadly, not about specific electoral positioning.

But I think we could use a lot of his analysis in thinking about how to build a durable open, tolerant and pluralistic centre-left politics fit for the 21st century.

www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

Don’t fall for the authoritarian hype – Reform and the hard right can be stopped in their tracks | Gordon Brown

From the US to Europe and Asia, grievances are being exploited to gain power. But moderate voices are still in tune with the majority, says former prime minister Gordon Brown

www.theguardian.com

William Lane @williamjtlane.bsky.social · 1d

It's also a rallying cry against the autarkic, isolationist 'pull up the drawbridge' Reform argument.

While that has its appeal, it's not difficult to reframe that as Reform arguing that Britain is weak and incapable. We could make internationalism an argument for British strength and dynamism.

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William Lane @williamjtlane.bsky.social · 1d

I can see internationalism being the thing that could bind an otherwise difficult Lib-Lab pact together, a shared commitment to an open economy, free trade and a welcoming attitude to immigrants.

I also think that'd be surprisingly popular with a decent chunk of centre-right voters.

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William Lane @williamjtlane.bsky.social · 1d

@stephenkb.bsky.social recently mentioned Blair's idea that the real divide is open vs closed, and that made me think again about the 90s attempt to unify left-liberalism in the UK.

I'm not sure it's doable (or frankly even desirable) at a party level, but ideologically it's the obvious answer.

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William Lane @williamjtlane.bsky.social · 1d

Internationalism is so important because it touches on the means of economic prosperity (free trade), the international treaties that uphold global peace (what's left of it), and the cultural ties that creat bonds across nations and communities.

It's the glue that holds the world together.

Nathan🌹 @nathanwylabour.bsky.social · 2d

I think Brown is very shrewd to identify internationalism as the key battleground.

Far too many on the centre-left and left are still indulging their economic nationalist fantasies – despite Biden and Starmer as clear examples of the shortcomings of such an approach.

Nathan🌹 @nathanwylabour.bsky.social · 2d

A moving and intelligent call to action here from Gordon Brown. And yet another reminder of why he is my political hero.
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

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William Lane @williamjtlane.bsky.social · 1d

TL:DR It's impossible to give any accurate overall predictions for 2029 until we can be reasonably sure that we know which of the 5(!!) UK wide parties currently polling over 10% will still be relevant in the year leading up to the election.

This is a genuine change from even 10 years ago.

William Lane @williamjtlane.bsky.social · 1d

The Cons could also just collapse entirely, at which point their voters would go to either Ref, Libs or the sofa.

That by itself would massively change the dynamic, as it would leave Ref as the only right wing party, but would also leave a sizeable chunk of right-wing Ref-skeptic voters.

William Lane @williamjtlane.bsky.social · 1d

For example I could see an (admittedly very unlikely) situation where Labour splits or collapses, in which case their voters would stream to the Libs and Greens.

I could also see a (more likely) situation where Reform stumbles and starts declining in the polls, throwing the Cons a lifeline.

William Lane @williamjtlane.bsky.social · 1d

It took a decade for the Libs to die as a major party and for the other minor parties to be absorbed.

Similarly, I can see a way for all of Lab, Libs, Ref or Cons to be the largest party (although only Lab, Libs or Ref could get a majority).

The political situation now was unthinkable 4 years ago.

William Lane @williamjtlane.bsky.social · 1d

Yeah, this is the problem with trying to predict the outcome of the next election right now, it's a moving target.

We don't actually know which parties will be relevant enough to potentially gain a majority/largest party in 2029.

In 1923 the Libs, Lab and Cons all looked like potential winners.

Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 1d

I think you're right about DKs - as of this moment.

But I also don't think ceilings/floors are an actual thing - for the reason you allude, nothing magically guarantees that a political party can't crash and burn and voters won't leap on the pyre but move to their next best option.

William Lane @williamjtlane.bsky.social · 2d

(To be clear here I'm not saying that the Empire hasn't influenced British culture, it absolutely has in all sorts of ways, large and small.

But for the reasons stated above I don't think the Empire, or imperial nostalgia more broadly, was the primary reason for Brexit).

William Lane @williamjtlane.bsky.social · 2d

And it was this myth, the idea of a plucky Britain standing up to the dastardly Europeans, that powered the ideals behind the Brexit campaign.

You saw it everywhere, and it was powerful because it spoke to something deep within British society, in a way the myth of Empire just doesn't.

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William Lane @williamjtlane.bsky.social · 2d

There's an article to be written (perhaps by me) on how Britain's contribution to WW2 effectively allowed us to hide the sins of Empire.

Indeed, I'd go so far as to argue that the modern British nation is essentially a creation of WW2, with 1940 the defining moment of national struggle.

William Lane @williamjtlane.bsky.social · 2d

There was definitely a period in the 60s through 80s where Britain had an 'imperial sunset' moment, and you'll find cultural works from that period that reference the Empire in a sort of self-satisfied 'we were great once' kind of way.

But that was long gone as a mainstream idea by 2016.

William Lane @williamjtlane.bsky.social · 2d

Now of course in actual historical terms you cannot separate the British Empire from Britain's role in WW2

But in national mythology you absolutely can! And that has been the dominant tendency within British culture since at least the 60s, although it is now (rightly) coming under greater scrutiny.

William Lane @williamjtlane.bsky.social · 2d

The actual myth that drove the Brexit campaign was not imperial nostalgia (which to be honest is generally seen as embarrassing).

It was the 'blitz spirit', Britain 'standing alone' in 1939-41. That was the cultural touchstone that was repeated again and again from 2016-19.

William Lane @williamjtlane.bsky.social · 2d

At the broader public level... I just don't see it.

The 'Singapore-on-Thames' arguments of pro-Brexit elites clashed directly with the far more isolationist view of Brexit voters, and the revealed preference of the whole project was to pull up the drawbridge and wall off the whole world.

William Lane @williamjtlane.bsky.social · 2d

'Brexit was about the Empire' is IMO an idea that makes a lot more sense in theory than in practice.

I think it's probable that at the elite level there was some kind of genuine imperial nostalgia at play, but refracted through dreams of 'free trade' rather than colonial imperialism.

the abbot of unreason (an archaeologist) @merovingians.bsky.social · 2d

I feel like this is still an underrated explanation for Brexit

William Lane @williamjtlane.bsky.social · 2d

...that the Libs are essentially boxed in there for now, without much room to expand north unless Labour starts losing to the right wing parties.

Because much of the Lib Dem and Labour voterbases look so similar, direct confrontation isn't really in the interests of either (for now at least).

William Lane @williamjtlane.bsky.social · 2d

Cornwall was exactly the kind of place I was thinking of, especially as it's a rare case where I think a direct Lab-Lib switchover could be possible in 2029 (given Cornwall's historic Liberal tendency).

I argued recently that Labour is being pushed out of the south, but the collary to that is...

Is Labour's Support Draining Out of the South?

williamjtlane.substack.com

William Lane @williamjtlane.bsky.social · 2d

This this 1000 times this!

The realist position should be to support Ukraine to the hilt, they are currently spending the blood we would otherwise have to lose to defeat our main regional enemy

And they're doing it while only asking for money and guns, which is nothing compared to flesh and blood

Iain Mansfield @igmansfield.bsky.social · 3d

"The West is not doing Ukraine a favour by helping it resist aggression; it is Ukraine doing the West a favour."

Fundamental point in @ldfreedman.bsky.social's latest. The true 'realist' position on Ukraine is that we should support Ukraine.

samf.substack.com/p/as-long-as...

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William Lane @williamjtlane.bsky.social · 2d

Yeah, although I do think a bit of Lab-Ref-Lib seat hokey cokey could take place between 2024-2034.

If you look at the MRP polls the Libs hold basically all of their seats in the South while Lab gets wiped, and I think the Libs are the long term beneficiaries of that.

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William Lane @williamjtlane.bsky.social · 2d

I wonder if this is because people tend to become less people pleasey as they get older?

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William Lane @williamjtlane.bsky.social · 2d

I think that last point is very perceptive

One thing that unites the hardcore Brexiters and hard FBPE types is an unwillingness to reckon with just how 'European' Britain is

I think Britain in the 10s will be seen similarly to 90s Italy, the forerunner of a broader political change across Europe

Helene von Bismarck @helenebismarck.bsky.social · 2d

I do, in fairness, think that we are at the beginning of a new time, and that liberal democracies and ageing societies across the Continent are struggling to adapt. But the point is Britain is very much part of that Story.One could even argue that they are ahead on a destructive European curve.