William Martindale
@wijama.bsky.social
Taiwanese-American MCEPA student at UC San Diego. Known as 馬凱威 to the other half of my family. I research conspiracy theories and politics in the Chinese-speaking world. Follow me for bad jokes, stats nerd stuff, and updates on whatever I'm reading.
Pinned
Partisanship, Security, and Global Status: Anatomy of Taiwan’s March 19 Shooting Conspiracy Theories
Previous research has shown how belief in particular conspiracy theories is subject to their salience to believers. Using the example of Taiwan’s March 19 shooting conspiracy theories, I show in this ...
scholarsarchive.byu.edu
Pleased to share that my undergraduate thesis, "Partisanship, Security, and Global Status: Anatomy of Taiwan’s March 19 Shooting Conspiracy Theories" is now available to read on BYU ScholarsArchive. In it, I examine an understudied conspiracy theory and implications on the field. Here's a summary 🧵
Reposted by William Martindale
Looks like there's talk of Ko Wen-je coming back and pushing out Huang Kuo-chang of the TPP now
news.ltn.com.tw/news/politic...
news.ltn.com.tw/news/politic...
分析柯文哲、黃國昌直播 詹凌瑀：柯準備清理門戶預告片 - 政治 - 自由時報電子報
前民眾黨主席柯文哲昨日久違直播，並與現任民眾黨主席黃國昌對談。對此，媒體人詹凌瑀分析，昨晚那場號稱「兩個太陽」的直播，根本不是取暖大會，而是柯文哲準備清理門戶的預告片。詹凌瑀在臉書PO文表示，昨晚那場號稱「兩個太陽」的直播，根本不是取暖大會，而是柯文哲準備清理門戶的預告片，黃國昌整晚焦慮全寫在臉上，拚命細數自己這一年跟國民黨聯手過了多少法案。嘴上說是為了黨，明眼人都看得出來他是在向柯文哲「面試求生...
news.ltn.com.tw
December 6, 2025 at 4:01 AM
Looks like there's talk of Ko Wen-je coming back and pushing out Huang Kuo-chang of the TPP now
news.ltn.com.tw/news/politic...
news.ltn.com.tw/news/politic...
Reposted by William Martindale
Again, if this is a legitimate reason to kill someone (it isn’t), then there was nothing the survivors could have done to avoid being killed. And we know that can’t be right, because the USMCJ cites the killing of shipwrecked people **as its prototypical example** of an unlawful order.
4/ Even worse on these officials account, it seems if the third view is correct, that was a reason to kill the survivors.
You read that right, and I am not exaggerating.⤵️
A shipwrecked person beckoning others to come rescue them is a basis for killing them.
You read that right, and I am not exaggerating.⤵️
A shipwrecked person beckoning others to come rescue them is a basis for killing them.
December 5, 2025 at 11:12 PM
Again, if this is a legitimate reason to kill someone (it isn’t), then there was nothing the survivors could have done to avoid being killed. And we know that can’t be right, because the USMCJ cites the killing of shipwrecked people **as its prototypical example** of an unlawful order.
Reposted by William Martindale
had a very nice time guest teaching on Chinese organizational culture and how it affects foreign policy tonight. a couple more slides since people enjoyed the last one.
December 5, 2025 at 3:37 AM
had a very nice time guest teaching on Chinese organizational culture and how it affects foreign policy tonight. a couple more slides since people enjoyed the last one.
Reposted by William Martindale
This is what government censorship actually looks like: defunding entire fields, deporting researchers, and quite effectively chilling speech that helps people understand how our information systems are being exploited and calls out powerful people and platforms for their bullshit.
For the last decade, the pervasive spread of bullshit & manipulation of online platforms have been widely recognized societal concerns. Now non US citizens studying those subjects can be labeled “censors” & denied visas or deported from the US. Censorship, indeed. www.reuters.com/world/us/tru...
Exclusive: Trump administration orders enhanced vetting for applicants of H-1B visa
An internal State Department memo said that anyone involved in "censorship" of free speech should be considered for rejection.
www.reuters.com
December 4, 2025 at 5:27 PM
This is what government censorship actually looks like: defunding entire fields, deporting researchers, and quite effectively chilling speech that helps people understand how our information systems are being exploited and calls out powerful people and platforms for their bullshit.
Reposted by William Martindale
Holy shit.
Reuters reporting that new admin instructions on visas are if you worked at a platform in trust & safety or content moderation or on fact checking or online safety at an platform you *and your loved ones* are ineligible for H-1B visa.
www.reuters.com/world/us/tru...
Reuters reporting that new admin instructions on visas are if you worked at a platform in trust & safety or content moderation or on fact checking or online safety at an platform you *and your loved ones* are ineligible for H-1B visa.
www.reuters.com/world/us/tru...
December 4, 2025 at 5:41 PM
Holy shit.
Reuters reporting that new admin instructions on visas are if you worked at a platform in trust & safety or content moderation or on fact checking or online safety at an platform you *and your loved ones* are ineligible for H-1B visa.
www.reuters.com/world/us/tru...
Reuters reporting that new admin instructions on visas are if you worked at a platform in trust & safety or content moderation or on fact checking or online safety at an platform you *and your loved ones* are ineligible for H-1B visa.
www.reuters.com/world/us/tru...
Reposted by William Martindale
a fun thing from a class I'm guest teaching tomorrow: which of these will turn out OK for you, and which will be a disaster? (they're all from a single Chinese city between 2010 and 2022)
December 3, 2025 at 8:11 PM
a fun thing from a class I'm guest teaching tomorrow: which of these will turn out OK for you, and which will be a disaster? (they're all from a single Chinese city between 2010 and 2022)
apparently I'm the #9 listener of Mucca Pazza and I don't know how to feel about being called out like this
December 3, 2025 at 7:00 PM
apparently I'm the #9 listener of Mucca Pazza and I don't know how to feel about being called out like this
yeah if these are the kinds of political swings we're getting in Trump country the Republicans are beyond screwed for the midterms
December 3, 2025 at 2:12 AM
yeah if these are the kinds of political swings we're getting in Trump country the Republicans are beyond screwed for the midterms
Reposted by William Martindale
If you are a solider that gets an order you expect might be illegal this creates even more incentive for them to disobey the order because if it comes out the order WAS illegal it's clear the regime will throw you on the bus rather than back you up.
December 1, 2025 at 4:25 PM
If you are a solider that gets an order you expect might be illegal this creates even more incentive for them to disobey the order because if it comes out the order WAS illegal it's clear the regime will throw you on the bus rather than back you up.
Reposted by William Martindale
Our Congress has explicitly, specifically blocked the President from banning or even limiting immigration by entire nationalities.
www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/...
The law was very deliberately crafted to prevent a return to racist exclusion in immigration policy.
www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/...
The law was very deliberately crafted to prevent a return to racist exclusion in immigration policy.
November 30, 2025 at 4:33 PM
Our Congress has explicitly, specifically blocked the President from banning or even limiting immigration by entire nationalities.
www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/...
The law was very deliberately crafted to prevent a return to racist exclusion in immigration policy.
www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/...
The law was very deliberately crafted to prevent a return to racist exclusion in immigration policy.
Reposted by William Martindale
in the midst of our supposed campaign against Venezuelan drug traffickers the President of the United States has chosen to pardon the Former President of Honduras, freeing him from his long prison sentence earned for trafficking more than 400 tons of cocaine into the United States
November 28, 2025 at 10:12 PM
in the midst of our supposed campaign against Venezuelan drug traffickers the President of the United States has chosen to pardon the Former President of Honduras, freeing him from his long prison sentence earned for trafficking more than 400 tons of cocaine into the United States
Reposted by William Martindale
No idea why an Afghan refugee shot National Guard soldiers within walking distance of the White House, but this new USCIS directive was revealed on Monday. Worth noting.
The folks at @afghanevac.bsky.social have in hand a new USCIS directive which largely targets Afghan refugees who fled the Taliban in the wake of the U.S. withdrawal in 2021.
In case you needed a reminder that the most loathsome people in the world work for DHS.
In case you needed a reminder that the most loathsome people in the world work for DHS.
November 27, 2025 at 5:19 AM
No idea why an Afghan refugee shot National Guard soldiers within walking distance of the White House, but this new USCIS directive was revealed on Monday. Worth noting.
Reposted by William Martindale
Perfect algorithmic timeline
November 27, 2025 at 7:09 AM
Perfect algorithmic timeline
learning about coordinate systems in China and seriously what the frick
![Screenshot of Wikipedia article on Chinese coordinate system GCJ-02. It reads:
GCJ-02 (Chinese: 地形图非线性保密处理算法; pinyin: Dìxíng tú fēixiànxìng bǎomì chǔlǐ suànfǎ; lit. 'Topographic map non-linear confidentiality algorithm')[21] is a geodetic datum used by the Chinese State Bureau of Surveying and Mapping, and based on WGS-84.[22] It uses an obfuscation algorithm[23] which adds apparently random offsets to both the latitude and longitude, with the alleged goal of improving national security.[20][24] There is a license fee associated with using this mandatory algorithm in China.[21]](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:qy6jyj4tpbqb33a44wx4gsl5/bafkreibvo5larkw5el52dsv2vk4m7addomryhdoejlbb4s5tte55fj52cy@jpeg)
November 26, 2025 at 6:57 AM
learning about coordinate systems in China and seriously what the frick
Reposted by William Martindale
A new Chinese law regulating influencer speech has gotten applause from social media users and commentators who want similar policies in their own countries. But the truth is far from what's in the news and it's a sad reflection of our internet and media space.
wenhao.substack.com/p/anatomy-of...
wenhao.substack.com/p/anatomy-of...
Anatomy of a Fake Story
A new Chinese law aimed at reducing misinformation set off global discussion. But nobody got it right.
wenhao.substack.com
November 25, 2025 at 4:39 PM
A new Chinese law regulating influencer speech has gotten applause from social media users and commentators who want similar policies in their own countries. But the truth is far from what's in the news and it's a sad reflection of our internet and media space.
wenhao.substack.com/p/anatomy-of...
wenhao.substack.com/p/anatomy-of...
Reposted by William Martindale
i still find it funny that the main self-coup plotters with Yoon were his high school alumni
October 16, 2025 at 1:23 AM
i still find it funny that the main self-coup plotters with Yoon were his high school alumni
Reposted by William Martindale
I don’t think anything sums up reality like this
Gonna be seeing this exact segment in my dreams for the next 20 years
November 25, 2025 at 3:56 AM
I don’t think anything sums up reality like this
Reposted by William Martindale
Absolutely deranged. I hope countries clamoring to end asylum or refugee policies for people from Myanmar—including Taiwan—don’t use this as justification for that now
www.uscis.gov/newsroom/new...
www.uscis.gov/newsroom/new...
DHS Terminating Temporary Protected Status for Burma
Today, Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem announced the termination of Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for Burma (Myanmar).
www.uscis.gov
November 25, 2025 at 1:10 AM
Absolutely deranged. I hope countries clamoring to end asylum or refugee policies for people from Myanmar—including Taiwan—don’t use this as justification for that now
www.uscis.gov/newsroom/new...
www.uscis.gov/newsroom/new...
Reposted by William Martindale
They want dissidents and refugees executed by dictatorships to make an example of them, they want a chilling effect on asylum seekers coming here that will last long after Trump is gone for the purpose of driving down non-white immigration.
The way I feel about these people would be unwise to post.
The way I feel about these people would be unwise to post.
This is really concerning. The Junta in Myanmar will arrest, conscript or kill many of those the US may return.
We honestly cannot understand how the US admin can say the situation in Myanmar is improving when ALL EVIDENCE IS TO THE CONTRARY.
We honestly cannot understand how the US admin can say the situation in Myanmar is improving when ALL EVIDENCE IS TO THE CONTRARY.
🚨"The Trump administration announced it will cancel temporary asylum for around 10,000 #Myanmar nationals living in the US, despite the country being ruled by a military dictatorship that has a record of executing dissidents."
www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...
www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...
November 24, 2025 at 10:01 PM
They want dissidents and refugees executed by dictatorships to make an example of them, they want a chilling effect on asylum seekers coming here that will last long after Trump is gone for the purpose of driving down non-white immigration.
The way I feel about these people would be unwise to post.
The way I feel about these people would be unwise to post.
Reposted by William Martindale
It’s dangerous to go alone! Take this. Photo from my collection, 1949.
November 23, 2025 at 11:35 PM
It’s dangerous to go alone! Take this. Photo from my collection, 1949.
Reposted by William Martindale
Looking forward to the next iteration of this work, “F- it, we’re doing four robustnesses.”
New paper: Triply Robust Panel Estimators (TROP) by @susanathey.bsky.social @guidoimbens.bsky.social Zhaonan Qu @vivianodavide.bsky.social.
arxiv.org/pdf/2508.21536
arxiv.org/pdf/2508.21536
November 23, 2025 at 11:32 PM
Looking forward to the next iteration of this work, “F- it, we’re doing four robustnesses.”
Reposted by William Martindale
China is cracking down on "naked officials".
It's not what you might imagine. They are officials who have children studying and living outside of China, particularly in the United States.
The topic does give rise to some great headlines, though:
It's not what you might imagine. They are officials who have children studying and living outside of China, particularly in the United States.
The topic does give rise to some great headlines, though:
November 22, 2025 at 6:20 PM
China is cracking down on "naked officials".
It's not what you might imagine. They are officials who have children studying and living outside of China, particularly in the United States.
The topic does give rise to some great headlines, though:
It's not what you might imagine. They are officials who have children studying and living outside of China, particularly in the United States.
The topic does give rise to some great headlines, though:
Reposted by William Martindale
One thing about PCA/embeddings/political-leaning that should get more attention is the role of zero or “the origin”. It’s often special in a way that depends upon how you do the embedding.
This post is a good example of that.
Once you accept that the origin is special, then….
This post is a good example of that.
Once you accept that the origin is special, then….
Good morning. I've got a banger new post out today that develops a new method for placing voters on the left-right ideological spectrum, and adds a new, "non-ideological"/affordability axis to usual way we chart & think about US voters (esp swing voters). www.gelliottmorris.com/p/not-just-l...
Not just left vs right: Most voters think about affordability and material wellbeing, not in ideological terms
Most voters want a party that emphasizes cost of living issues and makes the world a better place. Few Americans think in solidly ideologically terms. "Moderates" are mostly non-ideological.
www.gelliottmorris.com
November 20, 2025 at 6:28 PM
One thing about PCA/embeddings/political-leaning that should get more attention is the role of zero or “the origin”. It’s often special in a way that depends upon how you do the embedding.
This post is a good example of that.
Once you accept that the origin is special, then….
This post is a good example of that.
Once you accept that the origin is special, then….
Reposted by William Martindale
I think it is very unlikely that most of these are Russian influence agents, and considerably more likely that they are people from developing economies who have cottoned on to ways to make relatively large amounts of money for them by being paid-per-view by X.
This week we learned that many of the most active Twitter accounts are foreigners, most likely Russian influence agents, operating in the guise of Red State Americans.
November 23, 2025 at 1:40 AM
I think it is very unlikely that most of these are Russian influence agents, and considerably more likely that they are people from developing economies who have cottoned on to ways to make relatively large amounts of money for them by being paid-per-view by X.