VK
@vkmacro.bsky.social
Some charts I talked through with clients today on the recent rates move:
December 10, 2025 at 7:18 PM
Some charts I talked through with clients today on the recent rates move:
Gs/ ms strength has been really notable recently
December 10, 2025 at 6:35 PM
Gs/ ms strength has been really notable recently
Some of the steepening in g10 rates curves had been fierce.
NZD, CAD, JPN, sort of AUS all come to mind.
NZD, CAD, JPN, sort of AUS all come to mind.
December 10, 2025 at 9:12 AM
Some of the steepening in g10 rates curves had been fierce.
NZD, CAD, JPN, sort of AUS all come to mind.
NZD, CAD, JPN, sort of AUS all come to mind.
Despite Gemini’s rapid advances in multimodal, it’s clear they remain a league below ChatGPT when it comes to consumer usage.
The trends data backs this up;
The trends data backs this up;
December 9, 2025 at 10:20 PM
Despite Gemini’s rapid advances in multimodal, it’s clear they remain a league below ChatGPT when it comes to consumer usage.
The trends data backs this up;
The trends data backs this up;
Framework for stir and stocks is so very different that I can see why both end up talking past each other on various things
A common stock guy comment would be “retail earnings are fine, why worry about the economy”
Stir guy might say “employment growth now 0, meaning risks to lab mkt rising”
A common stock guy comment would be “retail earnings are fine, why worry about the economy”
Stir guy might say “employment growth now 0, meaning risks to lab mkt rising”
December 9, 2025 at 9:49 PM
Framework for stir and stocks is so very different that I can see why both end up talking past each other on various things
A common stock guy comment would be “retail earnings are fine, why worry about the economy”
Stir guy might say “employment growth now 0, meaning risks to lab mkt rising”
A common stock guy comment would be “retail earnings are fine, why worry about the economy”
Stir guy might say “employment growth now 0, meaning risks to lab mkt rising”
Don’t think the US should sell h200s to China given the gap between both countries AIs are widening in US favour imo.
But whatever, I don’t make the rules. If it happens the beneficiaries are obvious
But whatever, I don’t make the rules. If it happens the beneficiaries are obvious
December 9, 2025 at 7:13 PM
Don’t think the US should sell h200s to China given the gap between both countries AIs are widening in US favour imo.
But whatever, I don’t make the rules. If it happens the beneficiaries are obvious
But whatever, I don’t make the rules. If it happens the beneficiaries are obvious
As an analyst / strategist the best complement is when people read, care, critique and discuss your work with you.
The worst is when you get no feedback or comments
The worst is when you get no feedback or comments
December 5, 2025 at 2:49 PM
As an analyst / strategist the best complement is when people read, care, critique and discuss your work with you.
The worst is when you get no feedback or comments
The worst is when you get no feedback or comments
Opus 4.5 is just way better than any other comparable product. Claude is what Microsoft wished they got with OpenAI.
December 4, 2025 at 7:51 PM
Opus 4.5 is just way better than any other comparable product. Claude is what Microsoft wished they got with OpenAI.
The hot take on this meta stuff is they are just freeing up more capital to invest in AI, not that they’ve seen the light on Metaverse.
“If expense growth matters to investors, then let’s control expenses elsewhere”
“If expense growth matters to investors, then let’s control expenses elsewhere”
December 4, 2025 at 5:11 PM
The hot take on this meta stuff is they are just freeing up more capital to invest in AI, not that they’ve seen the light on Metaverse.
“If expense growth matters to investors, then let’s control expenses elsewhere”
“If expense growth matters to investors, then let’s control expenses elsewhere”
Trainium3 sucks - and it’s why they’re pushing it as a cheap product
December 4, 2025 at 4:47 PM
Trainium3 sucks - and it’s why they’re pushing it as a cheap product
Reposted by VK
But they treat High-Truss societies as though they were Kwasi-EM.
December 4, 2025 at 12:34 AM
But they treat High-Truss societies as though they were Kwasi-EM.
It’s true
AJ Bell boss warns over ‘absolutely bonkers’ Isa charge on.ft.com/3XvUJUb
AJ Bell boss warns over ‘absolutely bonkers’ Isa charge
Charge on cash in stocks-and-shares Isas ‘essentially a tax’, Michael Summersgill says
on.ft.com
December 4, 2025 at 11:51 AM
It’s true
Rates are still restrictive
The S&P Global UK Construction PMI was 39.4 in November 2025, (50=no monthly change in activity), down from 44.1 in October, so an 11th consecutive monthly decline in construction activity & November's decline was its sharpest since May 2020. (1/n)
#ukconstruction #ukhousing
#ukconstruction #ukhousing
December 4, 2025 at 10:29 AM
Rates are still restrictive
Their ad engine must suck if they’re delaying it *even more*
“That means the company will push back plans to develop advertising products, AI agents intended to automate shopping and health-related tasks, and Pulse”
“That means the company will push back plans to develop advertising products, AI agents intended to automate shopping and health-related tasks, and Pulse”
December 2, 2025 at 12:16 PM
Their ad engine must suck if they’re delaying it *even more*
“That means the company will push back plans to develop advertising products, AI agents intended to automate shopping and health-related tasks, and Pulse”
“That means the company will push back plans to develop advertising products, AI agents intended to automate shopping and health-related tasks, and Pulse”
UK PFs dump US stocks ahead of AI fears
Would like to buy msft below 30x tbh
www.ft.com/content/9d90...
Would like to buy msft below 30x tbh
www.ft.com/content/9d90...
UK pension funds dump US equities on fears of AI bubble
Public and private-sector funds concerned over market’s growing concentration in a small number of tech stocks
www.ft.com
December 2, 2025 at 12:13 PM
UK PFs dump US stocks ahead of AI fears
Would like to buy msft below 30x tbh
www.ft.com/content/9d90...
Would like to buy msft below 30x tbh
www.ft.com/content/9d90...
Ueda went out of his way to lay the bull case for wage growth this AM
Also, he’s specifically saying the BoJ will weigh the pros and cons of a move in Dec, which is telling you December is live
It’s a clear break from the “weigh uncertainties and downside risks to growth” language till now
Also, he’s specifically saying the BoJ will weigh the pros and cons of a move in Dec, which is telling you December is live
It’s a clear break from the “weigh uncertainties and downside risks to growth” language till now
December 1, 2025 at 5:22 AM
Ueda went out of his way to lay the bull case for wage growth this AM
Also, he’s specifically saying the BoJ will weigh the pros and cons of a move in Dec, which is telling you December is live
It’s a clear break from the “weigh uncertainties and downside risks to growth” language till now
Also, he’s specifically saying the BoJ will weigh the pros and cons of a move in Dec, which is telling you December is live
It’s a clear break from the “weigh uncertainties and downside risks to growth” language till now
I’ve thought about it more, and given both VNAV MMFs and ultra short gilt funds are available, I think the system can be gamed.
Also, VNAV funds cannot be considered cash like since there’s both some liquidity and credit risk.
Do we really want normal people taking that risk unknowingly?
Also, VNAV funds cannot be considered cash like since there’s both some liquidity and credit risk.
Do we really want normal people taking that risk unknowingly?
Is that right. Why are they doing that? So not even like a short gilts fund?
November 29, 2025 at 8:49 PM
I’ve thought about it more, and given both VNAV MMFs and ultra short gilt funds are available, I think the system can be gamed.
Also, VNAV funds cannot be considered cash like since there’s both some liquidity and credit risk.
Do we really want normal people taking that risk unknowingly?
Also, VNAV funds cannot be considered cash like since there’s both some liquidity and credit risk.
Do we really want normal people taking that risk unknowingly?
Now do relative eps
It might not be a bubble...
...but if there was one chart that looked bubble-like, this is it.
from the Weekly ChartStorm: www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-a...
...but if there was one chart that looked bubble-like, this is it.
from the Weekly ChartStorm: www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-a...
November 28, 2025 at 7:35 PM
Now do relative eps
Remember this is number of firms, but also number of subs per firm and API usage rising which won’t be captured here 😉
APOLLO: “.. Data from the Census Bureau and Ramp shows that AI adoption rates are starting to flatten out across all firm sizes.”
November 28, 2025 at 12:23 PM
Remember this is number of firms, but also number of subs per firm and API usage rising which won’t be captured here 😉
I think it’s really hard to be focused on multiple big topics at once.
I have a lot of respect for people who can do that, and ensure they do each topic the justice it deserves.
I have a lot of respect for people who can do that, and ensure they do each topic the justice it deserves.
November 27, 2025 at 1:47 PM
I think it’s really hard to be focused on multiple big topics at once.
I have a lot of respect for people who can do that, and ensure they do each topic the justice it deserves.
I have a lot of respect for people who can do that, and ensure they do each topic the justice it deserves.
Oh no
What the bulls are saying:
“We expect multiples to sustain if not push higher...”
"...one could argue we are being conservative in our forecast for modest multiple compression..."
"...valuations will rise a lot further before the bubble, if there is one, bursts..."
More here👇
“We expect multiples to sustain if not push higher...”
"...one could argue we are being conservative in our forecast for modest multiple compression..."
"...valuations will rise a lot further before the bubble, if there is one, bursts..."
More here👇
Some top forecasters are making a bold 2026 prediction that market skeptics will hate 😤 www.tker.co/p/wall-stree...
November 27, 2025 at 11:47 AM
Oh no
Actually a spot on summary.
November 27, 2025 at 9:11 AM
Actually a spot on summary.
The AI capex boom comes do Australia
November 27, 2025 at 8:29 AM
The AI capex boom comes do Australia
@alexbhturnbull.bsky.social you see aus q3 investment data today? Are there big AI Dc projects taking off in Australia?
November 27, 2025 at 7:05 AM
@alexbhturnbull.bsky.social you see aus q3 investment data today? Are there big AI Dc projects taking off in Australia?
Gemini multimodal is fun, but I’m back on Claude.
I can’t take the additional hallucination rate now that I’m used to not seeing it.
I can’t take the additional hallucination rate now that I’m used to not seeing it.
November 26, 2025 at 8:16 PM
Gemini multimodal is fun, but I’m back on Claude.
I can’t take the additional hallucination rate now that I’m used to not seeing it.
I can’t take the additional hallucination rate now that I’m used to not seeing it.