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@vkmacro.bsky.social
The AI capex boom comes do Australia
November 27, 2025 at 8:29 AM
The AI capex boom comes do Australia
Really interesting post by James aitken on LinkedIn
I’d say I’m more analyst than investor, but trying to adapt/ learn.
I’d say I’m more analyst than investor, but trying to adapt/ learn.
November 19, 2025 at 4:13 PM
Really interesting post by James aitken on LinkedIn
I’d say I’m more analyst than investor, but trying to adapt/ learn.
I’d say I’m more analyst than investor, but trying to adapt/ learn.
Consumer facing weren’t sectors hiring as much, but now leisure and hospitality too.
November 18, 2025 at 1:52 PM
Consumer facing weren’t sectors hiring as much, but now leisure and hospitality too.
Great charts from Schroders and @duncanlamont2.bsky.social on big tech debt issuance
Debt/ equity and interest coverage is extremely favourable. Moreover tech is underrepresented in IG indices given how cash rich they’ve been until now!
Debt/ equity and interest coverage is extremely favourable. Moreover tech is underrepresented in IG indices given how cash rich they’ve been until now!
November 18, 2025 at 11:58 AM
Great charts from Schroders and @duncanlamont2.bsky.social on big tech debt issuance
Debt/ equity and interest coverage is extremely favourable. Moreover tech is underrepresented in IG indices given how cash rich they’ve been until now!
Debt/ equity and interest coverage is extremely favourable. Moreover tech is underrepresented in IG indices given how cash rich they’ve been until now!
The AI DC business is actually quite simple. There are 5 variables in:
GPU rental costs
Utilisation rate
Depreciation length
Energy costs
Interest rate
Nadella explained, running a training shell isn’t a good enough business for Microsoft - inference which allows for cross selling is
GPU rental costs
Utilisation rate
Depreciation length
Energy costs
Interest rate
Nadella explained, running a training shell isn’t a good enough business for Microsoft - inference which allows for cross selling is
November 15, 2025 at 12:57 PM
The AI DC business is actually quite simple. There are 5 variables in:
GPU rental costs
Utilisation rate
Depreciation length
Energy costs
Interest rate
Nadella explained, running a training shell isn’t a good enough business for Microsoft - inference which allows for cross selling is
GPU rental costs
Utilisation rate
Depreciation length
Energy costs
Interest rate
Nadella explained, running a training shell isn’t a good enough business for Microsoft - inference which allows for cross selling is
“Where are the revenues”
Semianalysis expects azure revenue to accelerate to 50% YoY by end 2026
Semianalysis expects azure revenue to accelerate to 50% YoY by end 2026
November 12, 2025 at 8:44 PM
“Where are the revenues”
Semianalysis expects azure revenue to accelerate to 50% YoY by end 2026
Semianalysis expects azure revenue to accelerate to 50% YoY by end 2026
Azure ROIC followed a similar path despite higher margins and less competition Same story, large upfront costs which payoff over a medium term duration.
Back then, HBS suggested the IaaS cloud biz were commodities with no moats. The moat however is in services and scale!
Back then, HBS suggested the IaaS cloud biz were commodities with no moats. The moat however is in services and scale!
November 12, 2025 at 10:08 AM
Azure ROIC followed a similar path despite higher margins and less competition Same story, large upfront costs which payoff over a medium term duration.
Back then, HBS suggested the IaaS cloud biz were commodities with no moats. The moat however is in services and scale!
Back then, HBS suggested the IaaS cloud biz were commodities with no moats. The moat however is in services and scale!
Building a successful cloud business takes time. But when you get it right, there tend to be increasing returns of scale.
November 12, 2025 at 9:40 AM
Building a successful cloud business takes time. But when you get it right, there tend to be increasing returns of scale.
There are instances where a lack of capex has led to structural losses. One is intel who refused to buy ASML’s latest EUV and ended up falling behind to TSMC.
Again we don’t know if accelerated compute is a platform shift yet or not, but if it is then this is what could await! Why risk it?
Again we don’t know if accelerated compute is a platform shift yet or not, but if it is then this is what could await! Why risk it?
November 2, 2025 at 2:39 AM
There are instances where a lack of capex has led to structural losses. One is intel who refused to buy ASML’s latest EUV and ended up falling behind to TSMC.
Again we don’t know if accelerated compute is a platform shift yet or not, but if it is then this is what could await! Why risk it?
Again we don’t know if accelerated compute is a platform shift yet or not, but if it is then this is what could await! Why risk it?
Some charts on what’s happening within the precious metals complex:
1) record inflows
2) western markets commanding a premium, not China
3) trades taking profit on gold, but staying long silver due to the arb
1) record inflows
2) western markets commanding a premium, not China
3) trades taking profit on gold, but staying long silver due to the arb
October 16, 2025 at 9:54 AM
Some charts on what’s happening within the precious metals complex:
1) record inflows
2) western markets commanding a premium, not China
3) trades taking profit on gold, but staying long silver due to the arb
1) record inflows
2) western markets commanding a premium, not China
3) trades taking profit on gold, but staying long silver due to the arb
Also, come on… I’m not voting for any of these lol
October 14, 2025 at 10:37 AM
Also, come on… I’m not voting for any of these lol
I guess this is fair? But I love that I’m a skeptic based on this when I’m more bullish than most.
October 14, 2025 at 10:36 AM
I guess this is fair? But I love that I’m a skeptic based on this when I’m more bullish than most.
They literally included deprecation 😂😂😂😂😂😂
October 7, 2025 at 3:30 PM
They literally included deprecation 😂😂😂😂😂😂
JOLTS data doesn't go too far back, but here's a scatter of the hiring vs. layoff rate within the priv sector.
Pre-pandemic, a 3.5% hiring rate was more consistent with a 1.7% or so layoff rate. Today, that rate is just 1.2%.
Truly unique in recent history
Pre-pandemic, a 3.5% hiring rate was more consistent with a 1.7% or so layoff rate. Today, that rate is just 1.2%.
Truly unique in recent history
October 3, 2025 at 9:13 AM
JOLTS data doesn't go too far back, but here's a scatter of the hiring vs. layoff rate within the priv sector.
Pre-pandemic, a 3.5% hiring rate was more consistent with a 1.7% or so layoff rate. Today, that rate is just 1.2%.
Truly unique in recent history
Pre-pandemic, a 3.5% hiring rate was more consistent with a 1.7% or so layoff rate. Today, that rate is just 1.2%.
Truly unique in recent history
Damn sad times anyway here’s the update
October 1, 2025 at 2:39 PM
Damn sad times anyway here’s the update
It’s not just small caps either, and it’s not just AI.
There’s a large segment of cyclical and economically sensitive part of the market doing well:
There’s a large segment of cyclical and economically sensitive part of the market doing well:
September 18, 2025 at 8:25 PM
It’s not just small caps either, and it’s not just AI.
There’s a large segment of cyclical and economically sensitive part of the market doing well:
There’s a large segment of cyclical and economically sensitive part of the market doing well:
Baba probably has a long runway of cloud growth ahead:
September 16, 2025 at 10:23 AM
Baba probably has a long runway of cloud growth ahead:
Short note on just how the strong rally outside of AI is inconsistent with a weaker economy
September 12, 2025 at 10:55 AM
Short note on just how the strong rally outside of AI is inconsistent with a weaker economy
1y1y usd continues to grind lower as the market, meanwhile US CESI is pointing up.
Each time this happened over the past few years, CESI was right and led
Each time this happened over the past few years, CESI was right and led
August 29, 2025 at 11:24 AM
1y1y usd continues to grind lower as the market, meanwhile US CESI is pointing up.
Each time this happened over the past few years, CESI was right and led
Each time this happened over the past few years, CESI was right and led
Miners are printing cash this year
August 29, 2025 at 9:36 AM
Miners are printing cash this year