Author | Lightnews

Reposted by Noble Francis

Noble Francis @noblefrancis.bsky.social · 6h

UK brick deliveries are a useful proxy for new house building starts in the absence of monthly house building starts data & the latest data from the Department for Business & Trade (DBT) covers September 2025. (1/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction

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Noble Francis @noblefrancis.bsky.social · 5h

Overall, house building levels in 2025 are likely to be similar to last year's & next year's are likely to be similar to this year's or single-digit higher (& that is even before the impact of the Autumn Budget tax rises on homebuyer demand). (21/END)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction

Noble Francis @noblefrancis.bsky.social · 5h

Plus, housing associations & councils are more focused on dealing with issues on their existing stock, such as basic living conditions, fire safety remediation & decarbonisation), they're not focused on buying S106 or build themselves. (20/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction

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Noble Francis @noblefrancis.bsky.social · 5h

Housing associations & councils have had government's announcement of £39 billion over 10 years, backloaded to the final 5 years & without the detail of grant per unit, so they still cannot plan, never mind increase house building near-term &... (19/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction

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Noble Francis @noblefrancis.bsky.social · 5h

House building from housing associations & council has fallen this year as they have been highly financially constrained, which has been exacerbated by a hiatus due to uncertainty over medium-term funding earlier in the year. (18/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction

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Noble Francis @noblefrancis.bsky.social · 5h

For SME house builders in some parts of the country, site viability is less of an issue despite government's additional costs, due to higher average house prices but in these areas demand and affordability are the key constraints. (17/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction

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Noble Francis @noblefrancis.bsky.social · 5h

... SME house builders are disproportionately affected by government's additional costs on house building as they are spreading the costs over fewer homes & government will be increasing house building costs further in the next 12-18 months). (16/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction

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Noble Francis @noblefrancis.bsky.social · 5h

SME house builders in some areas with better affordability see demand has been sustained but site viability is not there as they are disproportionately affected by some of the long list of additional costs on house building from government &... (15/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction

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Noble Francis @noblefrancis.bsky.social · 5h

... new resi building & site viability in London was also affected by a requirement for 35% of developments to be affordable housing. This changed at 2 weeks ago but the detail & practical impact of this on new developments will take time. (14/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction

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Noble Francis @noblefrancis.bsky.social · 5h

This disproportionately affects new residential building in London, where most new housing is flats, & which is also affected by the affordability problems given higher average house prices. Plus,... (13/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction

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Noble Francis @noblefrancis.bsky.social · 5h

... as delays have persisted for so long, with unknown outcomes, many high-rise investors & developers are not willing to invest or put in new applications for high-rise residential & are just focusing on fewer mid-rise developments instead. (12/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction

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Noble Francis @noblefrancis.bsky.social · 5h

New high-rise residential developments continue to be affected by 6-9 month delays at Gateway 2 stage & 3-4 month delays at Gateway 3 stage, after planning approval, from the Building Safety Regulator. This is not currently improving &... (11/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction

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Noble Francis @noblefrancis.bsky.social · 6h

Major house builders build three-quarters of new homes but some other areas of new house building have been even more affected than the majors & are still enduring falls in activity this year. (10/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction

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Noble Francis @noblefrancis.bsky.social · 6h

... Barratt Redrow especially highlighted "challenging market conditions & increased uncertainty ahead of the November Budget", & that is even before the direct & indirect impacts of the Autumn Budget tax rises themselves on homebuyer demand. (9/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction

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Noble Francis @noblefrancis.bsky.social · 6h

e.g. The 2nd largest house builder, Barratt Redrow, reported this morning that it anticipates its house building completions in financial year 2026 will be between 4% & 7% higher than a year ago but still 25% & 27% lower than in 2022 &... (8/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction

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Noble Francis @noblefrancis.bsky.social · 6h

Most major house builders also indicate they anticipate another single-digit percentage growth in new house building completions in the next year but they are paticularly highlighting the slowdown in demand & pre-Autumn Budget uncertainty risks. (7/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction

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Noble Francis @noblefrancis.bsky.social · 6h

Most major house builders report that house building starts are significantly higher than a year ago, from a very low base, & that completions are a single-digit percentage higher than a year ago but sales rates have slowed sharply since March. (6/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction

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Noble Francis @noblefrancis.bsky.social · 6h

However, the current market conditions for house builders is very mixed, dependent on whether they are major house builders, high-rise developers, SME house builders or housing associations & councils. (5/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction

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Noble Francis @noblefrancis.bsky.social · 6h

Major house builders say there wasn't a significant rise in demand in September, above the usual seasonal pickup, & that demand remains subdued, but slightly higher than last year's low levels, following the sharp falls in demand in 2022 & 2023. (4/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction

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Noble Francis @noblefrancis.bsky.social · 6h

It is also worth noting that deliveries in September 2025 were also 30.2% lower than the post-pandemic peak in 2022 & 35.4% lower than in the pre-pandemic recent peak in 2018. (3/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction

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Noble Francis @noblefrancis.bsky.social · 6h

Deliveries in September 2025 were 11.9% higher than in August, which is generally a slow month for new house building, & 4.4% higher than a year ago. However, they were still 20.8% lower than the 2018-19 average, before the major disruptions in recent years. (2/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction

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Noble Francis @noblefrancis.bsky.social · 6h

UK brick deliveries are a useful proxy for new house building starts in the absence of monthly house building starts data & the latest data from the Department for Business & Trade (DBT) covers September 2025. (1/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction

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Reposted by Noble Francis

Noble Francis @noblefrancis.bsky.social · 7d

Long thread on house building... Clearly, the government's 1.5 million new homes in England in the 5-year parliament isn’t going to happen, & everyone in the industry knows it, even if the new Secretary of State keeps repeating it. (1/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction

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Noble Francis @noblefrancis.bsky.social · 7d

... never mind fanciful government target levels, which it is likely to miss by around 30% & that is even before the impacts of the upcoming tax rises in the Autumn Budget on the UK economy, housing market & house building sector. (12/end)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction

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Noble Francis @noblefrancis.bsky.social · 7d

We are forecasting that house building won’t even get back to 2022 levels until at least 2028 at the earliest and it won’t get back to pre-pandemic levels until 2029/30,... (11/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction

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