Tim Fernholz
@timfernholz.com
journalist, author, internet participant
writing and reporting on space, technology, and finance
I always want to hear your tips and ideas on signal: tim_fernholz.21
timfernholz.substack.com | www.timfernholz.com
Oakland, CA
writing and reporting on space, technology, and finance
I always want to hear your tips and ideas on signal: tim_fernholz.21
timfernholz.substack.com | www.timfernholz.com
Oakland, CA
Reposted by Tim Fernholz
NASA just announced that Suni Williams retired from the agency three and a half weeks ago, on Dec. 27. www.nasa.gov/news-release...
NASA Astronaut Suni Williams Retires - NASA
After 27 years of service, NASA astronaut Suni Williams retired from the agency, effective Dec. 27, 2025. Williams completed three missions aboard the
www.nasa.gov
January 20, 2026 at 11:44 PM
NASA just announced that Suni Williams retired from the agency three and a half weeks ago, on Dec. 27. www.nasa.gov/news-release...
Reposted by Tim Fernholz
Two DOGE members working at the Social Security Administration were secretly in touch with a group seeking to “overturn election results in certain states,” and one signed an agreement that may have involved using Social Security data to match state voter rolls"
www.politico.com/news/2026/01...
www.politico.com/news/2026/01...
Trump administration concedes DOGE team may have misused Social Security data
Some DOGE personnel had more access to data than previously acknowledged, according to a court filing.
www.politico.com
January 20, 2026 at 10:02 PM
Two DOGE members working at the Social Security Administration were secretly in touch with a group seeking to “overturn election results in certain states,” and one signed an agreement that may have involved using Social Security data to match state voter rolls"
www.politico.com/news/2026/01...
www.politico.com/news/2026/01...
Reposted by Tim Fernholz
okay so fun news, I am launching a macro newsletter from Common Wealth about the supply side data and the US economy called Forces of Production
Charts for bsky forthcoming at: @forcesofproduction.com
Launch essay below:
www.forcesofproduction.com/p/atop-the-f...
Charts for bsky forthcoming at: @forcesofproduction.com
Launch essay below:
www.forcesofproduction.com/p/atop-the-f...
Atop the Forces of Production
Announcing the launch of the Forces of Production macro data newsletter
www.forcesofproduction.com
January 20, 2026 at 8:10 PM
okay so fun news, I am launching a macro newsletter from Common Wealth about the supply side data and the US economy called Forces of Production
Charts for bsky forthcoming at: @forcesofproduction.com
Launch essay below:
www.forcesofproduction.com/p/atop-the-f...
Charts for bsky forthcoming at: @forcesofproduction.com
Launch essay below:
www.forcesofproduction.com/p/atop-the-f...
Reposted by Tim Fernholz
Translating Davos speak www.ft.com/content/ab4f...
January 20, 2026 at 6:19 PM
Translating Davos speak www.ft.com/content/ab4f...
Reposted by Tim Fernholz
Carney’s full speech. Banger.
open.substack.com/pub/paulwell...
open.substack.com/pub/paulwell...
The Carney doctrine
Open comment thread on the PM's Davos speech
open.substack.com
January 20, 2026 at 6:16 PM
Carney’s full speech. Banger.
open.substack.com/pub/paulwell...
open.substack.com/pub/paulwell...
Reposted by Tim Fernholz
i talked to die-hard traders on Kalshi and Polymarket and spent some time in prediction market spaces on Discord and Reddit to try to understand how this techno-financial wild west is utterly flourishing right now www.npr.org/2026/01/17/n...
They quit their day jobs to bet on current events. A look inside the prediction market mania
Prediction market apps are thriving in Trump's second term, with traders betting on migrant deportations to election outcomes. A community of young, mostly male and very online traders are driving the...
www.npr.org
January 17, 2026 at 4:49 PM
i talked to die-hard traders on Kalshi and Polymarket and spent some time in prediction market spaces on Discord and Reddit to try to understand how this techno-financial wild west is utterly flourishing right now www.npr.org/2026/01/17/n...
Reposted by Tim Fernholz
TIL that the Gramsci quote is a) from zizek and b) entirely not what Gramsci said. Which doesn't mean that zizek is wrong, as this does seem a time of monsters, and yet ... it's not what this says.
La crisi consiste appunto nel fatto che il vecchio muore e il nuovo non può nascere: in questo interregno si verificano i fenomeni morbosi più svariati.
January 20, 2026 at 5:13 PM
TIL that the Gramsci quote is a) from zizek and b) entirely not what Gramsci said. Which doesn't mean that zizek is wrong, as this does seem a time of monsters, and yet ... it's not what this says.
Reposted by Tim Fernholz
Carney: "American hegemony in particular helped provide public goods, a stable financial system... this bargain no longer works. Let me be direct. We are in the midst of a rupture, not a transition... recently, great powers have begun using economic integration as a weapon. Tariffs as leverage ... "
January 20, 2026 at 3:50 PM
Carney: "American hegemony in particular helped provide public goods, a stable financial system... this bargain no longer works. Let me be direct. We are in the midst of a rupture, not a transition... recently, great powers have begun using economic integration as a weapon. Tariffs as leverage ... "
Reposted by Tim Fernholz
Adam "I Would Shoot Biden Cabinet Members in the Head like My Hero Stalin" Tooze is doing panels at Davos with trump cabinet members, lol, lmao, lol
They have Lutnick on stage with Tooze???
Q: Can I bring you back to Greenland?
LUTNICK: No. It's not necessary. The Western Hemisphere is vital for the United States of America.
OTHER PANELISTS: 😬😬😬
LUTNICK: No. It's not necessary. The Western Hemisphere is vital for the United States of America.
OTHER PANELISTS: 😬😬😬
January 20, 2026 at 3:49 PM
Adam "I Would Shoot Biden Cabinet Members in the Head like My Hero Stalin" Tooze is doing panels at Davos with trump cabinet members, lol, lmao, lol
Reposted by Tim Fernholz
The inevitability of AI is now under threat from no one wanting to use it.
AI boom could falter without wider adoption, Microsoft chief Satya Nadella warns
AI boom could falter without wider adoption, Microsoft chief Satya Nadella warns
Big tech boss tells delegates at Davos that broader global use is essential if technology is to deliver lasting growth
www.irishtimes.com
January 20, 2026 at 2:14 PM
The inevitability of AI is now under threat from no one wanting to use it.
Reposted by Tim Fernholz
So about that recovery in housing....30-year rates climbing as global bond rout continues. Under current conditions the dollar and U.S. treasuries are not a safe haven. That means higher rates and higher mortgage rates.
January 20, 2026 at 2:29 PM
So about that recovery in housing....30-year rates climbing as global bond rout continues. Under current conditions the dollar and U.S. treasuries are not a safe haven. That means higher rates and higher mortgage rates.
Reposted by Tim Fernholz
1. ICE has STOPPED PAYING for medical treatment for its 73,000 detainees
ICE has not paid its bills to 3rd party providers since OCTOBER and the situation will likely persist for MONTHS, a Popular Information investigation reveals
Meanwhile, critically ill ICE detainees are not receiving care
🧵
ICE has not paid its bills to 3rd party providers since OCTOBER and the situation will likely persist for MONTHS, a Popular Information investigation reveals
Meanwhile, critically ill ICE detainees are not receiving care
🧵
ICE has stopped paying for detainee medical treatment
ICE halted payments in October, and the situation will persist for at least several more months
popular.info
January 20, 2026 at 1:42 PM
1. ICE has STOPPED PAYING for medical treatment for its 73,000 detainees
ICE has not paid its bills to 3rd party providers since OCTOBER and the situation will likely persist for MONTHS, a Popular Information investigation reveals
Meanwhile, critically ill ICE detainees are not receiving care
🧵
ICE has not paid its bills to 3rd party providers since OCTOBER and the situation will likely persist for MONTHS, a Popular Information investigation reveals
Meanwhile, critically ill ICE detainees are not receiving care
🧵
Reposted by Tim Fernholz
Those who claim to defend 'Western civilization' are today gutting the institutions on which the West's civil, peaceful coexistence has rested for all our lives.
The Economist, April 8th 1933.
(The territorial dispute between Norway and Denmark over parts of #Greenland was decided in Denmark's favour by the International Court.)
(The territorial dispute between Norway and Denmark over parts of #Greenland was decided in Denmark's favour by the International Court.)
January 20, 2026 at 1:44 PM
Those who claim to defend 'Western civilization' are today gutting the institutions on which the West's civil, peaceful coexistence has rested for all our lives.
Reposted by Tim Fernholz
Federal immigration agents forced open a door and detained a U.S. citizen in his Minnesota home at gunpoint without a warrant, then led him out onto the streets in his underwear in subfreezing conditions, according to his family and videos reviewed by The Associated Press.
US citizen says ICE removed him from his Minnesota home in his underwear after warrantless search
Federal immigration agents have detained a U.S. citizen in Minnesota at gunpoint without a warrant. That's according to ChongLy “Scott” Thao, who says agents forced open his door, entered with guns drawn and led him outside in his underwear in freezing conditions.
bit.ly
January 20, 2026 at 1:40 PM
Federal immigration agents forced open a door and detained a U.S. citizen in his Minnesota home at gunpoint without a warrant, then led him out onto the streets in his underwear in subfreezing conditions, according to his family and videos reviewed by The Associated Press.
Reposted by Tim Fernholz
Oh genuinely this photo of Artemis II is just so good.
January 19, 2026 at 9:58 PM
Oh genuinely this photo of Artemis II is just so good.
Reposted by Tim Fernholz
i think this MLK day the thing to focus on is the strategic focus and tactical brilliance of the civil rights movement and the way it was laser focused on a set of achievable goals
January 19, 2026 at 3:05 PM
i think this MLK day the thing to focus on is the strategic focus and tactical brilliance of the civil rights movement and the way it was laser focused on a set of achievable goals
Reposted by Tim Fernholz
Beijing watching a completely mentally unstable U.S. President reorient all U.S. foreign policy to coerce Brussels:
January 19, 2026 at 2:23 PM
Beijing watching a completely mentally unstable U.S. President reorient all U.S. foreign policy to coerce Brussels:
Reposted by Tim Fernholz
Space sector eyes further investment growth in 2026 after record year reut.rs/3LHjFpp
Space sector eyes further investment growth in 2026 after record year
Global investment in space technology is poised to climb further in 2026, propelled by government spending on defense-linked satellite systems and private sector bets on launch capacity, investment firm Seraphim Space said on Monday.
reut.rs
January 19, 2026 at 1:35 PM
Space sector eyes further investment growth in 2026 after record year reut.rs/3LHjFpp
Reposted by Tim Fernholz
I went to Minneapolis last week. What I saw was horrifying and inspiring in equal measure. Gift link to my latest column: www.nytimes.com/2026/01/19/o...
Opinion | In Minneapolis, I Glimpsed a Civil War
www.nytimes.com
January 19, 2026 at 12:56 PM
I went to Minneapolis last week. What I saw was horrifying and inspiring in equal measure. Gift link to my latest column: www.nytimes.com/2026/01/19/o...
I keep seeing this paragraph shared and I'm curious what the actual sources for these claims are--there are no links or names
January 17, 2026 at 3:47 PM
I keep seeing this paragraph shared and I'm curious what the actual sources for these claims are--there are no links or names
Reposted by Tim Fernholz
every single successful general strike in US history has had union backing through the local AFL-CIO
this is the first time it’s been called for since the 1940s
this is the first time it’s been called for since the 1940s
January 16, 2026 at 9:24 PM
every single successful general strike in US history has had union backing through the local AFL-CIO
this is the first time it’s been called for since the 1940s
this is the first time it’s been called for since the 1940s
fun tidbit from today's Artemis II presser: Astronauts on the mission may have the opportunity to see parts of the Moon that humans have never laid eyes on before, according to Jacob Bleacher, who leads the mission's scientific efforts.
January 16, 2026 at 5:29 PM
fun tidbit from today's Artemis II presser: Astronauts on the mission may have the opportunity to see parts of the Moon that humans have never laid eyes on before, according to Jacob Bleacher, who leads the mission's scientific efforts.
Reposted by Tim Fernholz
🏜️My first feature for @sfgate.com, and such an important story. For decades, the inventory & monitoring program has ensured that parks are being managed based on the best available science. Now, that effort is being threatened.
Trump admin strips key science data from America's national parks
The inventory and monitoring program steers decisions in the national park system.
www.sfgate.com
January 16, 2026 at 4:18 PM
🏜️My first feature for @sfgate.com, and such an important story. For decades, the inventory & monitoring program has ensured that parks are being managed based on the best available science. Now, that effort is being threatened.
Reposted by Tim Fernholz
Congress has passed the minibus spending bill for NASA, which would reject most of the proposed budget cuts for the agency www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
Congress Defies Trump on NASA Science Budget
The space community is breathing a sigh of relief after lawmakers rejected Trump proposed cuts.
www.bloomberg.com
January 16, 2026 at 2:48 PM
Congress has passed the minibus spending bill for NASA, which would reject most of the proposed budget cuts for the agency www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
Reposted by Tim Fernholz
Statement on the passage of HR 6938, which includes funding for NASA in FY 2026:
www.planetary.org/press-releas...
www.planetary.org/press-releas...
Save NASA Science coalition issues statement following bipartisan…
Members of the Save NASA Science campaign — a national coalition of academic, commercial, nonprofit, labor, and professional space science organizations —…
www.planetary.org
January 16, 2026 at 1:32 AM
Statement on the passage of HR 6938, which includes funding for NASA in FY 2026:
www.planetary.org/press-releas...
www.planetary.org/press-releas...