Jennifer Churchill
@redjen.bsky.social
Senior Lecturer in Economics UWE Bristol; macro, finance (especially pensions) and also philosophy. Previously dabbled in politics, policy, public affairs
Reposted by Jennifer Churchill
One thing this disclosure illustrates, once again, is the volatility of these forecasts. There's a swing of nearly £7bn, *within October* on the current budget forecast.
Lifting the two-child cap cost about £3bn. That could have been wiped out twice purely by the timing of the budget.
Lifting the two-child cap cost about £3bn. That could have been wiped out twice purely by the timing of the budget.
November 28, 2025 at 1:44 PM
One thing this disclosure illustrates, once again, is the volatility of these forecasts. There's a swing of nearly £7bn, *within October* on the current budget forecast.
Lifting the two-child cap cost about £3bn. That could have been wiped out twice purely by the timing of the budget.
Lifting the two-child cap cost about £3bn. That could have been wiped out twice purely by the timing of the budget.
Reposted by Jennifer Churchill
serious question: has any other chancellor had this treatment? Did we hear from Kwasi Kwarteng's aunty? Jeremy Hunt's nephew?
‘It’s a disgrace’ — Rachel Reeves’s uncle gives budget verdict ⬇️
‘It’s a disgrace’ — Rachel Reeves’s uncle gives budget verdict
‘It’s a disgrace’ — Rachel Reeves’s uncle gives budget verdict
www.thetimes.com
November 28, 2025 at 1:29 PM
serious question: has any other chancellor had this treatment? Did we hear from Kwasi Kwarteng's aunty? Jeremy Hunt's nephew?
Reposted by Jennifer Churchill
Fewer workers. Fewer international students. More people leaving.
A "step in the right direction" according to the PM.
Impossible to take PM/govt seriously on growth if they are deliberately reducing it (and making the fiscal position worse) *as a matter of policy*.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
A "step in the right direction" according to the PM.
Impossible to take PM/govt seriously on growth if they are deliberately reducing it (and making the fiscal position worse) *as a matter of policy*.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
UK net migration falls sharply with drop in arrivals for work and study
Provisional figures for net migration to the UK show levels dropped to 204,000 in the year to June 2025.
www.bbc.co.uk
November 27, 2025 at 8:17 PM
Fewer workers. Fewer international students. More people leaving.
A "step in the right direction" according to the PM.
Impossible to take PM/govt seriously on growth if they are deliberately reducing it (and making the fiscal position worse) *as a matter of policy*.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
A "step in the right direction" according to the PM.
Impossible to take PM/govt seriously on growth if they are deliberately reducing it (and making the fiscal position worse) *as a matter of policy*.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Reposted by Jennifer Churchill
An MP in Zimbabwe has called for the repeal of the country's "backwards" 1977 abortion law. He argued that safe abortion should be available to a wider range of Zimbabwean women, as it is currently restricted to a privileged few. Each year, 60,000 women die due to unsafe abortion.
It’s Time To Scrap Zimbabwe’s Outdated Abortion Law - Molokele ⋆ Pindula News
Hwange Central MP Daniel Molokele (CCC) has called for the repeal of the 1977 Termination of Pregnancy Act, describing it as one of the most backward laws in Zimbabwe. Molokele made the comments at a ...
news.pindula.co.zw
November 28, 2025 at 2:35 AM
An MP in Zimbabwe has called for the repeal of the country's "backwards" 1977 abortion law. He argued that safe abortion should be available to a wider range of Zimbabwean women, as it is currently restricted to a privileged few. Each year, 60,000 women die due to unsafe abortion.
Reposted by Jennifer Churchill
I'm constantly shocked (but not surprised) by how little we discuss the additional financial burden placed on young people by the Clegg-Cameron student loan regime.
@rmcunliffe.bsky.social is one of the few journalists who brings it up continuously - once again in the wake of the budget 👇
@rmcunliffe.bsky.social is one of the few journalists who brings it up continuously - once again in the wake of the budget 👇
Rachel Reeves hits young graduates with a double stealth tax
The Chancellor plans to raise as much money from freezing loan repayment thresholds as from the mansion tax
www.newstatesman.com
November 27, 2025 at 1:04 PM
I'm constantly shocked (but not surprised) by how little we discuss the additional financial burden placed on young people by the Clegg-Cameron student loan regime.
@rmcunliffe.bsky.social is one of the few journalists who brings it up continuously - once again in the wake of the budget 👇
@rmcunliffe.bsky.social is one of the few journalists who brings it up continuously - once again in the wake of the budget 👇
Reposted by Jennifer Churchill
If you want some good news this morning, I showed my three boys the PM doing the six/seven thing and now they have all stopped doing it.
November 27, 2025 at 7:03 AM
If you want some good news this morning, I showed my three boys the PM doing the six/seven thing and now they have all stopped doing it.
Reposted by Jennifer Churchill
Minor point. But this is the OBR saying that the briefing about income tax being dropped because of improved forecasts is bollocks.
November 26, 2025 at 1:18 PM
Minor point. But this is the OBR saying that the briefing about income tax being dropped because of improved forecasts is bollocks.
Reposted by Jennifer Churchill
As expected, and as the IMF recommended, Reeves says the OBR will now only assess the public finances against the fiscal rules once a year, at the Budget - to avoid the kind of mad scramble ahead of the Spring statement that led to the botched welfare reforms.
November 26, 2025 at 12:59 PM
As expected, and as the IMF recommended, Reeves says the OBR will now only assess the public finances against the fiscal rules once a year, at the Budget - to avoid the kind of mad scramble ahead of the Spring statement that led to the botched welfare reforms.
Reposted by Jennifer Churchill
'Science minister Patrick Vallance has rejected concerns that focusing on “doing fewer things better” in research will lead to funding being concentrated in larger research-intensive universities from the Russell Group.' 1/3
Post-16 plan ‘not recipe for Russell Group domination’ – Vallance
Science minister dismisses as ‘bizarre’ fears that government push for ‘teaching-only’ specialists will further concentrate research activity in small number of institutions
www.timeshighereducation.com
November 26, 2025 at 8:37 AM
'Science minister Patrick Vallance has rejected concerns that focusing on “doing fewer things better” in research will lead to funding being concentrated in larger research-intensive universities from the Russell Group.' 1/3
Reposted by Jennifer Churchill
"Unlike continental nonsense, analytic philosophy is clear and intelligible"
November 25, 2025 at 3:40 PM
"Unlike continental nonsense, analytic philosophy is clear and intelligible"
Reposted by Jennifer Churchill
My pre-budget take for the LSE Politics blog is up:
Labour are unable to articulate any vision or sense of purpose.
Much of the left has convinced itself that government spending can be maintained without broad-based tax increases.
Not a great budget backdrop.
blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandp...
Labour are unable to articulate any vision or sense of purpose.
Much of the left has convinced itself that government spending can be maintained without broad-based tax increases.
Not a great budget backdrop.
blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandp...
Wealth tax and looser fiscal rules won’t save the Budget | British Politics and Policy at LSE
The narrative on the left that a wealth tax and looser fiscal rules would solve the Chancellor's 2025 Budget headaches has got out of hand.
blogs.lse.ac.uk
November 25, 2025 at 4:05 PM
My pre-budget take for the LSE Politics blog is up:
Labour are unable to articulate any vision or sense of purpose.
Much of the left has convinced itself that government spending can be maintained without broad-based tax increases.
Not a great budget backdrop.
blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandp...
Labour are unable to articulate any vision or sense of purpose.
Much of the left has convinced itself that government spending can be maintained without broad-based tax increases.
Not a great budget backdrop.
blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandp...
Reposted by Jennifer Churchill
This stuff really boils my piss.
It's a long time since I had my kids but the range of things that can go wrong in childbirth is very very large. Why you'd go down this route is a total mystery to me
It's a long time since I had my kids but the range of things that can go wrong in childbirth is very very large. Why you'd go down this route is a total mystery to me
Influencers made millions pushing ‘wild’ births – now the Free Birth Society is linked to baby deaths around the world
Influencers made millions pushing ‘wild’ births – now the Free Birth Society is linked to baby deaths around the world
A year-long investigation reveals how mothers lost children after being radicalised by uplifting podcast tales of births without midwives or doctors
As Esau Lopez was asphyxiated for the first 17 minutes of his life on Earth, the atmosphere in the room remained serene, even ecstatic. Acoustic music crooned from a speaker in a modest two-bedroom apartment in a suburb of Pennsylvania. “You are a queen,” murmured one of three friends in the room.
Only Esau’s mother, Gabrielle Lopez, felt something was wrong. She was pushing hard, but her son would not be born. “Can you help [him] out?” she asked, as Esau crowned. “Baby is coming,” the friend replied. Four minutes later, Lopez asked again, “Can you grab [him]?” Another friend murmured, “Baby is safe.” Six minutes passed. Again, Lopez asked, “Can you grab [him]?” Continue reading...
www.theguardian.com
November 22, 2025 at 11:13 AM
This stuff really boils my piss.
It's a long time since I had my kids but the range of things that can go wrong in childbirth is very very large. Why you'd go down this route is a total mystery to me
It's a long time since I had my kids but the range of things that can go wrong in childbirth is very very large. Why you'd go down this route is a total mystery to me
Reposted by Jennifer Churchill
Word of the day is ‘quockerwodger’ (19th century): a puppet politician whose strings are pulled entirely by someone else.
November 21, 2025 at 1:21 PM
Word of the day is ‘quockerwodger’ (19th century): a puppet politician whose strings are pulled entirely by someone else.
Reposted by Jennifer Churchill
This is just insane for a number of reasons. Why is it the responsibility of ethnic minorities to ask “what is the cause of our division”? Who the hell thinks this is a good stance to hold?
Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood made more explicit her argument that when ethnic minorities face racism, "we have no choice but to ask: what is the cause of our division"
Her answer is the level of net migration, 2019-23 causes racism. (She on Monday said it was caused by the scale of asylum)
Her answer is the level of net migration, 2019-23 causes racism. (She on Monday said it was caused by the scale of asylum)
November 21, 2025 at 6:02 PM
This is just insane for a number of reasons. Why is it the responsibility of ethnic minorities to ask “what is the cause of our division”? Who the hell thinks this is a good stance to hold?
Reposted by Jennifer Churchill
True. One reason for this is that the issue is wrongly framed as one of needing to raise money, when in fact the issue is how to cut consumer spending so as to release real resources for public spending & investment.
November 21, 2025 at 8:41 AM
True. One reason for this is that the issue is wrongly framed as one of needing to raise money, when in fact the issue is how to cut consumer spending so as to release real resources for public spending & investment.
Reposted by Jennifer Churchill
🚨 BREAKING: Kent County Council is hurtling towards financial oblivion under Reform.
A shocking new council report reveals a projected budget black hole of £46.5 million for this year. The Reform Administration has completely lost control of our finances. 🔶
A shocking new council report reveals a projected budget black hole of £46.5 million for this year. The Reform Administration has completely lost control of our finances. 🔶
November 19, 2025 at 11:46 AM
🚨 BREAKING: Kent County Council is hurtling towards financial oblivion under Reform.
A shocking new council report reveals a projected budget black hole of £46.5 million for this year. The Reform Administration has completely lost control of our finances. 🔶
A shocking new council report reveals a projected budget black hole of £46.5 million for this year. The Reform Administration has completely lost control of our finances. 🔶
Reposted by Jennifer Churchill
Did the bombshell BBC memo misquote the misquote? on.ft.com/4oZZJfN
Did the bombshell BBC memo misquote the misquote?
Wording used by Michael Prescott was itself an edit of Trump’s actual words
on.ft.com
November 20, 2025 at 9:36 AM
Did the bombshell BBC memo misquote the misquote? on.ft.com/4oZZJfN
Reposted by Jennifer Churchill
Burnham says UK would benefit from new approach to growth and politics he's promoting in Manchester - www.theguardian.com/politics/liv...
November 20, 2025 at 9:26 AM
Burnham says UK would benefit from new approach to growth and politics he's promoting in Manchester - www.theguardian.com/politics/liv...
Reposted by Jennifer Churchill
Good letter from @youellog.bsky.social responding to this. www.ft.com/content/244c...
Letter: Banks waste far too much on payouts to shareholders
From Simon Youel, Head of Policy & Advocacy, Positive Money; Visiting Research Fellow, University of Manchester, UK
www.ft.com
November 20, 2025 at 9:23 AM
Good letter from @youellog.bsky.social responding to this. www.ft.com/content/244c...
Reposted by Jennifer Churchill
The UK isn’t a “soft touch” on asylum.
UK asylum seeker benefits are similar to European neighbours
No right to work before 12 months (it’s 6 months in France, Spain, Belgium, Netherlands)
UK settlement after 5 years (it’s 3 or 4 in Germany)
Let’s cut out the alarmist rhetoric.
UK asylum seeker benefits are similar to European neighbours
No right to work before 12 months (it’s 6 months in France, Spain, Belgium, Netherlands)
UK settlement after 5 years (it’s 3 or 4 in Germany)
Let’s cut out the alarmist rhetoric.
November 19, 2025 at 11:52 AM
The UK isn’t a “soft touch” on asylum.
UK asylum seeker benefits are similar to European neighbours
No right to work before 12 months (it’s 6 months in France, Spain, Belgium, Netherlands)
UK settlement after 5 years (it’s 3 or 4 in Germany)
Let’s cut out the alarmist rhetoric.
UK asylum seeker benefits are similar to European neighbours
No right to work before 12 months (it’s 6 months in France, Spain, Belgium, Netherlands)
UK settlement after 5 years (it’s 3 or 4 in Germany)
Let’s cut out the alarmist rhetoric.
Not great news for decarbonising freight…. on.ft.com/4opqI3v Channel Tunnel owner cancels UK rail projects over rise in business rates
Channel Tunnel owner cancels UK rail projects over rise in business rates
Eurotunnel said expected tripling of levy makes planned freight investments untenable
on.ft.com
November 20, 2025 at 7:56 AM
Not great news for decarbonising freight…. on.ft.com/4opqI3v Channel Tunnel owner cancels UK rail projects over rise in business rates
Interesting move, with support from
Greater Manchester Pension Fund on.ft.com/480BHtL Greater Manchester to launch £1bn public investment fund
Greater Manchester Pension Fund on.ft.com/480BHtL Greater Manchester to launch £1bn public investment fund
Greater Manchester to launch £1bn public investment fund
City region aims to capitalise on sustained economic growth with first fund of its kind
on.ft.com
November 19, 2025 at 10:10 PM
Interesting move, with support from
Greater Manchester Pension Fund on.ft.com/480BHtL Greater Manchester to launch £1bn public investment fund
Greater Manchester Pension Fund on.ft.com/480BHtL Greater Manchester to launch £1bn public investment fund
Fantastic news!
We’re delighted to appoint Dr Daniella Jenkins as our new Executive Director. She joins us from the University of Bristol and brings experience in feminism, economic policy and design.
Dr Daniella Jenkins will start in Spring 2026, and Dr Sara Reis will act as Director until then.
Dr Daniella Jenkins will start in Spring 2026, and Dr Sara Reis will act as Director until then.
November 19, 2025 at 3:23 PM
Fantastic news!
Reposted by Jennifer Churchill
Danish Social democrats suffered a massive defeat in Copenhagen last night. They incurred similar defeats across the country and there will be a general election in the next year. In Copenhagen the far-left Enhedslisten (the unity list) won the most mandates followed by the socialist people's party.
November 19, 2025 at 7:40 AM
Danish Social democrats suffered a massive defeat in Copenhagen last night. They incurred similar defeats across the country and there will be a general election in the next year. In Copenhagen the far-left Enhedslisten (the unity list) won the most mandates followed by the socialist people's party.
Reposted by Jennifer Churchill
I’ll just leave this here.
November 18, 2025 at 4:45 PM
I’ll just leave this here.