Pax Lusitanica
@paxlusitanica.bsky.social
OSINT enthusiast and armchair strategist. Reading the news, looking at maps.
🇩🇰 expatriate in 🇵🇹, married to a 🇹🇼 and closely following events in 🇺🇦.
Still on Twitter, but only active here now.
🇩🇰 expatriate in 🇵🇹, married to a 🇹🇼 and closely following events in 🇺🇦.
Still on Twitter, but only active here now.
Pinned
Pax Lusitanica
@paxlusitanica.bsky.social
· Oct 20
What is Ukraine saving its missiles for?
In this video, I discuss President Zelensky's announcement that attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure this winter will be met with similar attacks on the Russian power grid. This is interesting b...
www.logicofwar.com
Ukraine has been stockpiling Flamingo missiles, with probably a few hundred available at present. Whether originally intended for deterrence or as offensive weapons, renewed Russian strikes may force Ukraine to respond in kind. So what could they aim for? 1/20
www.logicofwar.com/what-is-ukra...
www.logicofwar.com/what-is-ukra...
I found a very convenient store on Terceira Island in the Azores. It makes it much easier to boycott a lot of different products at once.
Below is a gift link to a relevant article.
Below is a gift link to a relevant article.
December 10, 2025 at 6:52 PM
I found a very convenient store on Terceira Island in the Azores. It makes it much easier to boycott a lot of different products at once.
Below is a gift link to a relevant article.
Below is a gift link to a relevant article.
The Danish Government intends to decrease its financial support for Ukraine in 2026. It argues that Denmark has been overperforming since 2022 and that it is now time for other countries to step up.
I see the point, but personally disagree with the decision. A lot.
www.dr.dk/nyheder/indl...
I see the point, but personally disagree with the decision. A lot.
www.dr.dk/nyheder/indl...
Danmark skruer ned for støtten til Ukraine i 2026
Ukraine kan forvente langt færre penge fra Danmark de kommende år. Andre skal give mere, lyder det fra Regeringen.
www.dr.dk
December 4, 2025 at 7:26 PM
The Danish Government intends to decrease its financial support for Ukraine in 2026. It argues that Denmark has been overperforming since 2022 and that it is now time for other countries to step up.
I see the point, but personally disagree with the decision. A lot.
www.dr.dk/nyheder/indl...
I see the point, but personally disagree with the decision. A lot.
www.dr.dk/nyheder/indl...
Guinea Bissau's President Umaro Sissoco Embaló may not be widely known, but he has been one of Russia's best friends in Africa.
In May 2024, he visited Putin in Moscow, telling him that "Russia can count on Guinea-Bissau as a permanent ally. That will never change".
Hopefully it will change now.
In May 2024, he visited Putin in Moscow, telling him that "Russia can count on Guinea-Bissau as a permanent ally. That will never change".
Hopefully it will change now.
November 26, 2025 at 8:51 PM
Guinea Bissau's President Umaro Sissoco Embaló may not be widely known, but he has been one of Russia's best friends in Africa.
In May 2024, he visited Putin in Moscow, telling him that "Russia can count on Guinea-Bissau as a permanent ally. That will never change".
Hopefully it will change now.
In May 2024, he visited Putin in Moscow, telling him that "Russia can count on Guinea-Bissau as a permanent ally. That will never change".
Hopefully it will change now.
Reposted by Pax Lusitanica
The United States has negotiated with Russia about Ukraine’s and Europe’s security—without Ukrainians and Europeans at the table. They agreed that European taxpayers should pay for the cleanup after the destruction Russia has caused in Ukraine.
www.dr.dk/nyheder/udla...
www.dr.dk/nyheder/udla...
Analyse: Alliancen mellem Europa og USA vakler
Er USA stadig Europas allierede, når landet forhandler med Rusland om Ukraine og Europas sikkerhed bag deres ryg - og beder europæiske skatteborgere betale for oprydningen efter Ruslands ødelæggelser ...
www.dr.dk
November 26, 2025 at 10:31 AM
The United States has negotiated with Russia about Ukraine’s and Europe’s security—without Ukrainians and Europeans at the table. They agreed that European taxpayers should pay for the cleanup after the destruction Russia has caused in Ukraine.
www.dr.dk/nyheder/udla...
www.dr.dk/nyheder/udla...
Reposted by Pax Lusitanica
🔻 Satellite images of 🇷🇺 Taganrog South Airport as of November 25, 08:47 UTC
The airport housed the destroyed A-60 and A-100LL, along with 1 Tu-142M3/MK (Bear-F) and 2 A-40 (Mermaid).
The airport housed the destroyed A-60 and A-100LL, along with 1 Tu-142M3/MK (Bear-F) and 2 A-40 (Mermaid).
November 25, 2025 at 3:39 PM
🔻 Satellite images of 🇷🇺 Taganrog South Airport as of November 25, 08:47 UTC
The airport housed the destroyed A-60 and A-100LL, along with 1 Tu-142M3/MK (Bear-F) and 2 A-40 (Mermaid).
The airport housed the destroyed A-60 and A-100LL, along with 1 Tu-142M3/MK (Bear-F) and 2 A-40 (Mermaid).
Wait, what? Did last night's strike ALSO destroy the Beriev A-100LL - i.e. the original prototype of the A-100?
It is one out of only two A-100s and its destruction could be much more important than that smashed A-60.
Looking forward to see those satellite photos!
www.twz.com/16281/bristl...
It is one out of only two A-100s and its destruction could be much more important than that smashed A-60.
Looking forward to see those satellite photos!
www.twz.com/16281/bristl...
November 25, 2025 at 12:37 PM
Wait, what? Did last night's strike ALSO destroy the Beriev A-100LL - i.e. the original prototype of the A-100?
It is one out of only two A-100s and its destruction could be much more important than that smashed A-60.
Looking forward to see those satellite photos!
www.twz.com/16281/bristl...
It is one out of only two A-100s and its destruction could be much more important than that smashed A-60.
Looking forward to see those satellite photos!
www.twz.com/16281/bristl...
I had hoped for my recent prediction of a Ukrainian attack against the Black Sea Fleet (BSF) in Novorossiysk to come true.
Instead it was a much older prediction of mine that hit the mark last night. Seriously, Taganrog had this coming. (But an A-60? That was admittedly unexpected.)
Instead it was a much older prediction of mine that hit the mark last night. Seriously, Taganrog had this coming. (But an A-60? That was admittedly unexpected.)
November 25, 2025 at 12:08 PM
I had hoped for my recent prediction of a Ukrainian attack against the Black Sea Fleet (BSF) in Novorossiysk to come true.
Instead it was a much older prediction of mine that hit the mark last night. Seriously, Taganrog had this coming. (But an A-60? That was admittedly unexpected.)
Instead it was a much older prediction of mine that hit the mark last night. Seriously, Taganrog had this coming. (But an A-60? That was admittedly unexpected.)
The month I fear is October 2028. Due to weather conditions and currents, a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is best executed in either April or October.
If the US descends into internal turmoil before the presidential elections on 7 November 2028, Taiwan may face a moment of unprecedented vulnerability.
If the US descends into internal turmoil before the presidential elections on 7 November 2028, Taiwan may face a moment of unprecedented vulnerability.
Xi: “The return of Taiwan to China is a key part of the post-war international order.”
November 24, 2025 at 3:40 PM
The month I fear is October 2028. Due to weather conditions and currents, a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is best executed in either April or October.
If the US descends into internal turmoil before the presidential elections on 7 November 2028, Taiwan may face a moment of unprecedented vulnerability.
If the US descends into internal turmoil before the presidential elections on 7 November 2028, Taiwan may face a moment of unprecedented vulnerability.
Reposted by Pax Lusitanica
🇵🇹🇺🇦 Thank you, Lisbon. Thank you, Portugal. Your steadfast support for Ukraine means more than words can say. We see it, we feel it, and we will never forget it.
November 24, 2025 at 11:04 AM
🇵🇹🇺🇦 Thank you, Lisbon. Thank you, Portugal. Your steadfast support for Ukraine means more than words can say. We see it, we feel it, and we will never forget it.
Yet another prediction materialises. Ukraine hit the Shatura Power Station in Moscow Oblast hard last night.
It is close enough to Moscow to be problematic for Muscovites to lose, but too far to the east to defend.
The plant partly relies on US- and German-made equipment.
bsky.app/profile/paxl...
It is close enough to Moscow to be problematic for Muscovites to lose, but too far to the east to defend.
The plant partly relies on US- and German-made equipment.
bsky.app/profile/paxl...
November 23, 2025 at 12:40 PM
Yet another prediction materialises. Ukraine hit the Shatura Power Station in Moscow Oblast hard last night.
It is close enough to Moscow to be problematic for Muscovites to lose, but too far to the east to defend.
The plant partly relies on US- and German-made equipment.
bsky.app/profile/paxl...
It is close enough to Moscow to be problematic for Muscovites to lose, but too far to the east to defend.
The plant partly relies on US- and German-made equipment.
bsky.app/profile/paxl...
Reposted by Pax Lusitanica
Fuel shortages of 92- and especially 95-octane petrol are now being reported in Yaroslavl Oblast.
Minor detail: That region hosts the fifth-largest oil refinery in Russia.
Minor detail: That region hosts the fifth-largest oil refinery in Russia.
Updated map of the regions of Russia where there are shortages of gasoline or diesel and how early was it first reported. As always it's worse in the occupied territories. Added just one region since the last update, Yaroslavl.
November 2, 2025 at 1:57 PM
Fuel shortages of 92- and especially 95-octane petrol are now being reported in Yaroslavl Oblast.
Minor detail: That region hosts the fifth-largest oil refinery in Russia.
Minor detail: That region hosts the fifth-largest oil refinery in Russia.
This is potentially VERY important. Tuapse is one of the most important ports for Russian oil exports. Ukrainian naval drones attacked a different part of the port in September.
bsky.app/profile/spec...
bsky.app/profile/spec...
November 1, 2025 at 10:54 PM
This is potentially VERY important. Tuapse is one of the most important ports for Russian oil exports. Ukrainian naval drones attacked a different part of the port in September.
bsky.app/profile/spec...
bsky.app/profile/spec...
Ukraine's targeted strikes of TPPs in Russia is quite a new phenomenon. It may be partly viewed as a tit-for-tat strategy aiming to deter Russian attacks on similar Ukrainian facilities.
We can expect more such strikes, albeit not against nuclear power plants like those near Smolensk and Kursk. 1/2
We can expect more such strikes, albeit not against nuclear power plants like those near Smolensk and Kursk. 1/2
@paxlusitanica.bsky.social , Ukraine seems to have hit the TPP in Oryol tonight. What is your assessment of their strategy and its progress?
October 31, 2025 at 9:03 AM
Ukraine's targeted strikes of TPPs in Russia is quite a new phenomenon. It may be partly viewed as a tit-for-tat strategy aiming to deter Russian attacks on similar Ukrainian facilities.
We can expect more such strikes, albeit not against nuclear power plants like those near Smolensk and Kursk. 1/2
We can expect more such strikes, albeit not against nuclear power plants like those near Smolensk and Kursk. 1/2
Reposted by Pax Lusitanica
"Xi told me that he would not sell weapons to Russia, but I know one thing: China is helping Russia. China is not helping Ukraine. China is not interested in our victory and Russia's defeat," Zelensky said during a press conference in Brussels.
October 23, 2025 at 3:18 PM
"Xi told me that he would not sell weapons to Russia, but I know one thing: China is helping Russia. China is not helping Ukraine. China is not interested in our victory and Russia's defeat," Zelensky said during a press conference in Brussels.
Ukraine has been stockpiling Flamingo missiles, with probably a few hundred available at present. Whether originally intended for deterrence or as offensive weapons, renewed Russian strikes may force Ukraine to respond in kind. So what could they aim for? 1/20
www.logicofwar.com/what-is-ukra...
www.logicofwar.com/what-is-ukra...
What is Ukraine saving its missiles for?
In this video, I discuss President Zelensky's announcement that attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure this winter will be met with similar attacks on the Russian power grid. This is interesting b...
www.logicofwar.com
October 20, 2025 at 10:21 AM
Ukraine has been stockpiling Flamingo missiles, with probably a few hundred available at present. Whether originally intended for deterrence or as offensive weapons, renewed Russian strikes may force Ukraine to respond in kind. So what could they aim for? 1/20
www.logicofwar.com/what-is-ukra...
www.logicofwar.com/what-is-ukra...
My powers of prediction are not 100% reliable, but my track record has been improving lately.
The 330kV electrical substation in Dzhankoy is a key bottleneck in Crimea's power grid.
bsky.app/profile/paxl...
The 330kV electrical substation in Dzhankoy is a key bottleneck in Crimea's power grid.
bsky.app/profile/paxl...
October 17, 2025 at 1:43 PM
My powers of prediction are not 100% reliable, but my track record has been improving lately.
The 330kV electrical substation in Dzhankoy is a key bottleneck in Crimea's power grid.
bsky.app/profile/paxl...
The 330kV electrical substation in Dzhankoy is a key bottleneck in Crimea's power grid.
bsky.app/profile/paxl...
Reposted by Pax Lusitanica
This is why the hype around Tomahawk missiles is a ridiculous distraction. The Americans are no longer a reliable ally, and in their current path to internal paralysis not much help to traditional adversaries either.
Better for EU-UK and Ukraine to expand production and reduce reliance on the US
Better for EU-UK and Ukraine to expand production and reduce reliance on the US
Kind of amazing how so many geopolitical deepsea divers predicting Trump's next diplomatic triumph haven't processed what a US government shutdown in its third week and troops in US streets might say about America's long term prospects for shaping the new global order
October 16, 2025 at 6:25 PM
This is why the hype around Tomahawk missiles is a ridiculous distraction. The Americans are no longer a reliable ally, and in their current path to internal paralysis not much help to traditional adversaries either.
Better for EU-UK and Ukraine to expand production and reduce reliance on the US
Better for EU-UK and Ukraine to expand production and reduce reliance on the US
This is one of the most easily-readable macroeconomic assessments of the Russian economy that I have read for a while. Thundering applause!
October 15, 2025 at 8:39 AM
This is one of the most easily-readable macroeconomic assessments of the Russian economy that I have read for a while. Thundering applause!
The Ukrainian strikes against the 330kV substation at Simferopol and the 220kV 'Kafa' substation near Feodosia may prove devastating for the electricity grid on Crimea.
Without these two electrical nodal points, much of the peninsula will be confined to cold and darkness.
bsky.app/profile/did:...
Without these two electrical nodal points, much of the peninsula will be confined to cold and darkness.
bsky.app/profile/did:...
October 13, 2025 at 9:41 AM
The Ukrainian strikes against the 330kV substation at Simferopol and the 220kV 'Kafa' substation near Feodosia may prove devastating for the electricity grid on Crimea.
Without these two electrical nodal points, much of the peninsula will be confined to cold and darkness.
bsky.app/profile/did:...
Without these two electrical nodal points, much of the peninsula will be confined to cold and darkness.
bsky.app/profile/did:...
Reposted by Pax Lusitanica
🚨🚨🚨 EXCLUSIVE PHOTO 🚨🚨🚨
The 🇷🇺 Russian 🤿 submarine NOVOROSSIYSK resurfaces!
Following recent rumors about technical problems, she continues its journey toward the Baltic Sea for repairs. 🛠️
The 🇷🇺 Russian 🤿 submarine NOVOROSSIYSK resurfaces!
Following recent rumors about technical problems, she continues its journey toward the Baltic Sea for repairs. 🛠️
October 6, 2025 at 2:44 PM
🚨🚨🚨 EXCLUSIVE PHOTO 🚨🚨🚨
The 🇷🇺 Russian 🤿 submarine NOVOROSSIYSK resurfaces!
Following recent rumors about technical problems, she continues its journey toward the Baltic Sea for repairs. 🛠️
The 🇷🇺 Russian 🤿 submarine NOVOROSSIYSK resurfaces!
Following recent rumors about technical problems, she continues its journey toward the Baltic Sea for repairs. 🛠️
Time for an updated bingo card! Again, all credit goes to the original author of the work, @KHoholenko on Twitter.
In the quoted post, you may find my original recommendations on useful resources when monitoring Ukraine's progress in destroying Russian oil refineries. 1/4
bsky.app/profile/paxl...
In the quoted post, you may find my original recommendations on useful resources when monitoring Ukraine's progress in destroying Russian oil refineries. 1/4
bsky.app/profile/paxl...
October 5, 2025 at 10:57 AM
Time for an updated bingo card! Again, all credit goes to the original author of the work, @KHoholenko on Twitter.
In the quoted post, you may find my original recommendations on useful resources when monitoring Ukraine's progress in destroying Russian oil refineries. 1/4
bsky.app/profile/paxl...
In the quoted post, you may find my original recommendations on useful resources when monitoring Ukraine's progress in destroying Russian oil refineries. 1/4
bsky.app/profile/paxl...
Reposted by Pax Lusitanica
One operational A-50U (RF-94268, “Taganrog”, Red 41) arrived at the base between September 24 and 28, likely for maintenance or repair.
❗️ This is the first time such a valuable aircraft for Russia has been based so close to the frontline, within the reach of most Ukrainian UAVs.
❗️ This is the first time such a valuable aircraft for Russia has been based so close to the frontline, within the reach of most Ukrainian UAVs.
October 3, 2025 at 7:22 PM
One operational A-50U (RF-94268, “Taganrog”, Red 41) arrived at the base between September 24 and 28, likely for maintenance or repair.
❗️ This is the first time such a valuable aircraft for Russia has been based so close to the frontline, within the reach of most Ukrainian UAVs.
❗️ This is the first time such a valuable aircraft for Russia has been based so close to the frontline, within the reach of most Ukrainian UAVs.
An unidentified aircraft from Beja Air Base is currently circling over the exact area where the Russian ships 'RN Neptune' and 'Lauga' are located, possibly escorting the accident-affected (?) Kilo-class submarine 'Novorossiysk'.
Probably a P-3 Orion from 601st Squadron of the Portuguese Air Force.
Probably a P-3 Orion from 601st Squadron of the Portuguese Air Force.
September 30, 2025 at 9:52 AM
An unidentified aircraft from Beja Air Base is currently circling over the exact area where the Russian ships 'RN Neptune' and 'Lauga' are located, possibly escorting the accident-affected (?) Kilo-class submarine 'Novorossiysk'.
Probably a P-3 Orion from 601st Squadron of the Portuguese Air Force.
Probably a P-3 Orion from 601st Squadron of the Portuguese Air Force.
Reposted by Pax Lusitanica
Taiwan's foreign minister in Warsaw:
“It is high time for Europe to stand with Taiwan, to forge a robust coalition for our shared values, halt expansion of authoritarian regimes. Taiwan is ready to work with Europe; is Europe ready to work with Taiwan?”
“It is high time for Europe to stand with Taiwan, to forge a robust coalition for our shared values, halt expansion of authoritarian regimes. Taiwan is ready to work with Europe; is Europe ready to work with Taiwan?”
High time for Europe to stand with Taiwan, says foreign minister in Poland
European countries only maintain formal diplomatic ties with Beijing and not Taipei.
www.freemalaysiatoday.com
September 30, 2025 at 8:31 AM
Taiwan's foreign minister in Warsaw:
“It is high time for Europe to stand with Taiwan, to forge a robust coalition for our shared values, halt expansion of authoritarian regimes. Taiwan is ready to work with Europe; is Europe ready to work with Taiwan?”
“It is high time for Europe to stand with Taiwan, to forge a robust coalition for our shared values, halt expansion of authoritarian regimes. Taiwan is ready to work with Europe; is Europe ready to work with Taiwan?”