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Ukraine War Brief Podcast

@ukrainewarpod.bsky.social

3.3K followers 360 following 6.6K posts

Rob Gaudette on Twitter. Hosted by a Ukrainian and produced by an American with a PharmD. thepeoplesmedia.substack.com

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Ukraine War Brief Podcast @ukrainewarpod.bsky.social · Jun 11

If I use an estimated 6 trillion ruble deficit—instead of the “very optimistic” 3.8 trillion rubles currently under consideration—the gap is even more profound.

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Ukraine War Brief Podcast @ukrainewarpod.bsky.social · 2h

If you’re wondering how russia’s REPO creates inflation, AI gave a surprisingly good explanation.

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Ukraine War Brief Podcast @ukrainewarpod.bsky.social · 2h

This isn’t a normal repo auction. It’s a repo to finance the government deficit. The money is already spent, so it’s in the money supply when the bank buys the bond back.

In normal repo, M0 increases but not M2 because it’s not leaving the bank.

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Ukraine War Brief Podcast @ukrainewarpod.bsky.social · 3h

@prune602.bsky.social, @evgen-istrebin.bsky.social came through!

Russians continue to withdraw funds from Russian bank deposits

Cash withdrawal statistics from Russian banks
June: -216 bn rubles
July: -226
August: -199
September: -188
Oct 1-14: -137

The trend is stable without acceleration

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Ukraine War Brief Podcast @ukrainewarpod.bsky.social · 3h

Yes, that’s all inflationary too

Ukraine War Brief Podcast @ukrainewarpod.bsky.social · 3h

bsky.app/profile/ukra...

Ukraine War Brief Podcast @ukrainewarpod.bsky.social · 3h

This makes sense to me. We were all right 🤣

Ukraine War Brief Podcast @ukrainewarpod.bsky.social · 3h

This makes sense to me. We were all right 🤣

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Ukraine War Brief Podcast @ukrainewarpod.bsky.social · 3h

Yes, that’s my guess. I’m going to do more research on this. I know it’s correct, I just can’t explain it… yet.

Ukraine War Brief Podcast @ukrainewarpod.bsky.social · 3h

But that money didn’t exist and then they gave it to the government in the form of a bond. Where is the bank getting the money to pay back the loan?

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Ukraine War Brief Podcast @ukrainewarpod.bsky.social · 3h

Oh, is one of the three Bashneft refineries there on fire?

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Ukraine War Brief Podcast @ukrainewarpod.bsky.social · 3h

What if it’s REPO 1 trillion/week for 84 weeks?

Igor Lipsits says it’s money printing, and I believe him. I don’t fully understand the mechanism.

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Ukraine War Brief Podcast @ukrainewarpod.bsky.social · 3h

Having bonds allows them to issue more loans from a risk perspective, no?

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Ukraine War Brief Podcast @ukrainewarpod.bsky.social · 3h

Russia and Iran supported this monster for decades. The sooner Moscow is raised to the ground, the better.

www.reuters.com/world/middle...

Exclusive: Assad government secretly moved mass grave to cover up killings, Reuters investigation finds

From 2019 to 2021, Syria’s authoritarian government carried out a secret operation to move tens of thousands of bodies from the exposed Qutayfah mass grave to a hidden site in the desert east of Damascus. The goal of the clandestine reburial was to hide evidence of atrocities as Bashar Assad tried to regain international standing

www.reuters.com

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Ukraine War Brief Podcast @ukrainewarpod.bsky.social · 3h

REPO auctions are every Tuesday.
OFZ auction every Wednesday.

Russia never used to REPO every Tuesday before the war.

Ukraine War Brief Podcast @ukrainewarpod.bsky.social · 3h

Yeah, that confused me too. My understanding is REPO loans are repaid after the term (usually a week, sometimes one day), and the central bank gives the OFZs back to the banks.

Normally, that’s inflation neutral. But look what russia has been doing. Sustained REPO. It’s seeping into M2.

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Ukraine War Brief Podcast @ukrainewarpod.bsky.social · 4h

Yes… this will not be nearly enough. They need to urgently cut 20% more to break even.

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Ukraine War Brief Podcast @ukrainewarpod.bsky.social · 4h

Yes, but only if you hoot and holler like sea lions too

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Ukraine War Brief Podcast @ukrainewarpod.bsky.social · 4h

💥 Ukraine confirmed a repeated strike on the marine oil terminal in Feodosia on Oct 13. 16 fuel tanks that survived the first strike were damaged. A large-scale fire continues on the premises of the enterprise.

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Ukraine War Brief Podcast @ukrainewarpod.bsky.social · 4h

Crimean Wind reports “a fire has broken out” at a refinery in Volgograd. We still need confirmation besides some local Telegram chats saying drones got through.

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Ukraine War Brief Podcast @ukrainewarpod.bsky.social · 4h

In Ufa, Russia, a Ukrainian long range attack drone meanders in the skies to its destination. Good morning, Russia!

I wonder if it’s revisiting the refinery complex in Bashkortostan.

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Ukraine War Brief Podcast @ukrainewarpod.bsky.social · 4h

I’m saving for another post :)

Basically, we don’t really know. I have a few theories

Ukraine War Brief Podcast @ukrainewarpod.bsky.social · 4h

🍿 The ruble is back down below 80 per USD because Rosneft is selling $12 bn worth of yuan it needs to convert to rubles. It received an “advance payment” from China in September.

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Ukraine War Brief Podcast @ukrainewarpod.bsky.social · 5h

I wrote a thing! Please read. And then please clap 👏

open.substack.com/pub/thepeopl...

Russia’s Economic Tailspin

Putin is out of money and time.

open.substack.com

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Ukraine War Brief Podcast @ukrainewarpod.bsky.social · 11h

Kursk, Arkhangelsk, Dagestan, Murmansk, Smolensk, Stavropol, Krasnodar, Kemerovo are all sucking wind and desperate for cash

Ukraine War Brief Podcast @ukrainewarpod.bsky.social · 11h

Wowowwwwwwww! Another region looking for a bailout.

Prune60 @prune602.bsky.social · 11h

‼️ Russia: “Rostov Oblast authorities have begun searching for banks willing to provide a loan of 24.4 billion rubles.”

🍿 Are they going to struggle the way Kuzbas region has?

www.mk.ru/economics/20...

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Ukraine War Brief Podcast @ukrainewarpod.bsky.social · 12h

This administration has applied and enforced approximately 0 new sanctions on Russia. Not even a tariff.

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