Pax Lusitanica
@paxlusitanica.bsky.social
OSINT enthusiast and armchair strategist. Reading the news, looking at maps.
🇩🇰 expatriate in 🇵🇹, married to a 🇹🇼 and closely following events in 🇺🇦.
Still on Twitter, but only active here now.
🇩🇰 expatriate in 🇵🇹, married to a 🇹🇼 and closely following events in 🇺🇦.
Still on Twitter, but only active here now.
Quite so. Indeed, both PM Benjamin Netanyahu and The Jerusalem Post explicitly label the good Mr Ahmed as a Muslim.
Whatever his religion, the man has guts.
www.jpost.com/internationa...
Whatever his religion, the man has guts.
www.jpost.com/internationa...
Muslim civilian disarms gunman in Sydney terror attack | The Jerusalem Post
"He's a hero. One hundred percent a hero. Once we saw on social media, he's one hundred percent a hero," the man's cousin, Mustafa al-Ahmad, said.
www.jpost.com
December 14, 2025 at 6:04 PM
Quite so. Indeed, both PM Benjamin Netanyahu and The Jerusalem Post explicitly label the good Mr Ahmed as a Muslim.
Whatever his religion, the man has guts.
www.jpost.com/internationa...
Whatever his religion, the man has guts.
www.jpost.com/internationa...
I concur - the preceding word "reportedly" is doing some heavy lifting there. But further down, the article rightfully mentions the other handful of An-22s still in existence - and possibly also in flying condition.
bsky.app/profile/paxl...
bsky.app/profile/paxl...
If so, it could be RF-09309 (pictured here). It was decommissioned in 2024 and set to become a museum exhibit.
Some sources however indicate that three remain active (RA-09329, RA-09341 and RA-09342), with another two units in storage (RA-08830 and RA-09344).
All are based in Migalovo, near Tver.
Some sources however indicate that three remain active (RA-09329, RA-09341 and RA-09342), with another two units in storage (RA-08830 and RA-09344).
All are based in Migalovo, near Tver.
December 14, 2025 at 4:52 PM
I concur - the preceding word "reportedly" is doing some heavy lifting there. But further down, the article rightfully mentions the other handful of An-22s still in existence - and possibly also in flying condition.
bsky.app/profile/paxl...
bsky.app/profile/paxl...
Total structural failure. The An-22 was on a test flight after having undergone maintenance.
Either the Soviet-era airframe was beyond remedy or the air mechanics were drunk as a skunk. Possibly both.
www.twz.com/air/theres-l...
Either the Soviet-era airframe was beyond remedy or the air mechanics were drunk as a skunk. Possibly both.
www.twz.com/air/theres-l...
There’s Likely No Way Back For Russia’s An-22 Turboprop Heavy Transports After Fatal Crash
The An-22 that crashed was reportedly the last airworthy example of what was once the world’s heaviest aircraft. The An-22 that crashed was reportedly the last airworthy example of what was once the w...
www.twz.com
December 14, 2025 at 1:03 PM
Total structural failure. The An-22 was on a test flight after having undergone maintenance.
Either the Soviet-era airframe was beyond remedy or the air mechanics were drunk as a skunk. Possibly both.
www.twz.com/air/theres-l...
Either the Soviet-era airframe was beyond remedy or the air mechanics were drunk as a skunk. Possibly both.
www.twz.com/air/theres-l...
Fair. But if I recall correctly, one can feasibly cut off oil interconnections to Belarus by targeting pumping stations on the eastern side of the border.
If Ukraine hits Belarus, they might risk suddenly having to deal with a northern front. Better to get Pokrovsk and Kupyansk in order first.
If Ukraine hits Belarus, they might risk suddenly having to deal with a northern front. Better to get Pokrovsk and Kupyansk in order first.
December 12, 2025 at 7:42 PM
Fair. But if I recall correctly, one can feasibly cut off oil interconnections to Belarus by targeting pumping stations on the eastern side of the border.
If Ukraine hits Belarus, they might risk suddenly having to deal with a northern front. Better to get Pokrovsk and Kupyansk in order first.
If Ukraine hits Belarus, they might risk suddenly having to deal with a northern front. Better to get Pokrovsk and Kupyansk in order first.
Oh, yes. But a couple of Sapsan strikes in Minsk would surely turn up the heat a few degrees.
December 12, 2025 at 7:31 PM
Oh, yes. But a couple of Sapsan strikes in Minsk would surely turn up the heat a few degrees.
Minor detail: Minsk and Vitebsk are in Belarus.
December 12, 2025 at 7:19 PM
Minor detail: Minsk and Vitebsk are in Belarus.
The oil in the Korchagin field reportedly "lies at a depth of around 4 km and is difficult to extract due to its composition".
Well, I trust it has become even more difficult to extract now.
ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%9C%...
Well, I trust it has become even more difficult to extract now.
ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%9C%...
Месторождение имени Корчагина — Википедия
ru.wikipedia.org
December 12, 2025 at 7:00 PM
The oil in the Korchagin field reportedly "lies at a depth of around 4 km and is difficult to extract due to its composition".
Well, I trust it has become even more difficult to extract now.
ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%9C%...
Well, I trust it has become even more difficult to extract now.
ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%9C%...
Both vessels have been frequent visitors to Iranian ports. Their loss could impact Russia's drone manufacturing capabilities in Yelabuga.
war-sanctions.gur.gov.ua/en/transport...
war-sanctions.gur.gov.ua/en/transport...
KOMPOZITOR RAKHMANINOV; IMO 8606616
Aircraft and Marine vessels
war-sanctions.gur.gov.ua
December 12, 2025 at 10:52 AM
Both vessels have been frequent visitors to Iranian ports. Their loss could impact Russia's drone manufacturing capabilities in Yelabuga.
war-sanctions.gur.gov.ua/en/transport...
war-sanctions.gur.gov.ua/en/transport...
Probably, at the Yaroslavl refinery, the AVT-4 primary oil processing unit was damaged.
p o v: 57.5421185072, 39.79787990089
Not long ago, in the same place, the VT-6 vacuum distillation unit for fuel oil, which was in the process of being modernized, was self-demilitarized.
#russianLosses
p o v: 57.5421185072, 39.79787990089
Not long ago, in the same place, the VT-6 vacuum distillation unit for fuel oil, which was in the process of being modernized, was self-demilitarized.
#russianLosses
December 12, 2025 at 9:57 AM
The Yaroslavl Refinery is number two on my shortlist of six strategic installations that the Ukrainians should aim for to break Russia's ability to wage war. They have hit it once before, on 31 October.
An incredibly important target!
bsky.app/profile/paxl...
An incredibly important target!
bsky.app/profile/paxl...
Target #2: Yaroslavl Refinery, Yaroslavl Oblast. Moscow has more redundancy in terms of fuel supply than St Petersburg, but losing the large refinery at Yaroslavl would hurt both cities.
Interception-related caveats again apply, as Yaroslavl is located "behind" the Moscow ring of air defences. 9/20
Interception-related caveats again apply, as Yaroslavl is located "behind" the Moscow ring of air defences. 9/20
December 12, 2025 at 8:22 AM
The Yaroslavl Refinery is number two on my shortlist of six strategic installations that the Ukrainians should aim for to break Russia's ability to wage war. They have hit it once before, on 31 October.
An incredibly important target!
bsky.app/profile/paxl...
An incredibly important target!
bsky.app/profile/paxl...
It is currently Europe, not the US, which is supporting Ukraine's fight against tyranny.
Please bear that in mind whenever US politicians start talking about NATO contributions and alleged European "free-loading".
Please bear that in mind whenever US politicians start talking about NATO contributions and alleged European "free-loading".
December 11, 2025 at 2:32 PM
It is currently Europe, not the US, which is supporting Ukraine's fight against tyranny.
Please bear that in mind whenever US politicians start talking about NATO contributions and alleged European "free-loading".
Please bear that in mind whenever US politicians start talking about NATO contributions and alleged European "free-loading".
Me too! Sadly, the "harvest" last night again turned out a bit meagre: A chemical factory in Novgorod, a power plant near Smolensk and an oil drilling platform in the Caspian Sea.
That is why I gave such a conservative 10% estimate - the DroneBomber maps are nice and helpful, but easily overhyped.
That is why I gave such a conservative 10% estimate - the DroneBomber maps are nice and helpful, but easily overhyped.
December 11, 2025 at 12:35 PM
Me too! Sadly, the "harvest" last night again turned out a bit meagre: A chemical factory in Novgorod, a power plant near Smolensk and an oil drilling platform in the Caspian Sea.
That is why I gave such a conservative 10% estimate - the DroneBomber maps are nice and helpful, but easily overhyped.
That is why I gave such a conservative 10% estimate - the DroneBomber maps are nice and helpful, but easily overhyped.
If so, Ukraine should start issuing letters of marque to relevant people in a couple of places.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Letter_...
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Letter_...
Letter of marque - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
December 11, 2025 at 12:39 AM
If so, Ukraine should start issuing letters of marque to relevant people in a couple of places.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Letter_...
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Letter_...
Ha, fair enough. Yet four drones slamming into the Moscow Refinery or the Shatura Power Plant sounds decent enough to me.
December 11, 2025 at 12:33 AM
Ha, fair enough. Yet four drones slamming into the Moscow Refinery or the Shatura Power Plant sounds decent enough to me.
Yes, surely not. I am more concerned about false or duplicate reports of drones.
These maps are great, but some earlier supposedly massive drone waves ultimately proved rather underwhelming in practice. Hopefully tonight will be different.
These maps are great, but some earlier supposedly massive drone waves ultimately proved rather underwhelming in practice. Hopefully tonight will be different.
December 11, 2025 at 12:29 AM
Yes, surely not. I am more concerned about false or duplicate reports of drones.
These maps are great, but some earlier supposedly massive drone waves ultimately proved rather underwhelming in practice. Hopefully tonight will be different.
These maps are great, but some earlier supposedly massive drone waves ultimately proved rather underwhelming in practice. Hopefully tonight will be different.
The blue arrows represent the category "jet-powered UAVs", which is nice enough. But the night is still young so keep an eye out for an updated map with green arrows - those are cruise missiles.
December 10, 2025 at 9:44 PM
The blue arrows represent the category "jet-powered UAVs", which is nice enough. But the night is still young so keep an eye out for an updated map with green arrows - those are cruise missiles.
Imagine if just 10% of those arrows are actual attack drones (i.e. not decoys or false reports) and 10% of them hit their respective targets in turn...
Winter has arrived, Russia.
Winter has arrived, Russia.
December 10, 2025 at 9:17 PM
Imagine if just 10% of those arrows are actual attack drones (i.e. not decoys or false reports) and 10% of them hit their respective targets in turn...
Winter has arrived, Russia.
Winter has arrived, Russia.
The Dashan is a Suezmax tanker built in 2005 and a notorious shadow fleet oil smuggler. It has been sanctioned by the EU and several individual countries.
war-sanctions.gur.gov.ua/en/transport...
war-sanctions.gur.gov.ua/en/transport...
DASHAN; IMO 9299666
задіяні в перевезенні санкційної нафти
war-sanctions.gur.gov.ua
December 10, 2025 at 5:20 PM
The Dashan is a Suezmax tanker built in 2005 and a notorious shadow fleet oil smuggler. It has been sanctioned by the EU and several individual countries.
war-sanctions.gur.gov.ua/en/transport...
war-sanctions.gur.gov.ua/en/transport...
In probably a few weeks from now, they will also know how far into Russia the Flamingos will be able to strike and how much damage they can inflict.
December 10, 2025 at 4:32 PM
In probably a few weeks from now, they will also know how far into Russia the Flamingos will be able to strike and how much damage they can inflict.
Santa Claus nationalism is a thing!
December 10, 2025 at 12:33 PM
Santa Claus nationalism is a thing!
The Il-76TD in question seems to have been operated by the Sudanese Armed Forces, but the crew may well have been Russian.
On that other SoMe platform, there is some speculation that it may have been RA-76842 from Aviacon Zitotrans. It recently left Berbera Airbase in Somalia, flying northwest.
On that other SoMe platform, there is some speculation that it may have been RA-76842 from Aviacon Zitotrans. It recently left Berbera Airbase in Somalia, flying northwest.
December 10, 2025 at 10:53 AM
The Il-76TD in question seems to have been operated by the Sudanese Armed Forces, but the crew may well have been Russian.
On that other SoMe platform, there is some speculation that it may have been RA-76842 from Aviacon Zitotrans. It recently left Berbera Airbase in Somalia, flying northwest.
On that other SoMe platform, there is some speculation that it may have been RA-76842 from Aviacon Zitotrans. It recently left Berbera Airbase in Somalia, flying northwest.
Nope. There is a reason we Danes are so invested in hanging on to Greenland.
"Some people have strangely developed the belief that Santa Claus is from Finland. Those of us who know for sure that Santa Claus lives in Greenland do obviously not concur".
www.greenland-travel.dk/inspiration/...
"Some people have strangely developed the belief that Santa Claus is from Finland. Those of us who know for sure that Santa Claus lives in Greenland do obviously not concur".
www.greenland-travel.dk/inspiration/...
Rundt i verden med den rigtige julemand
Julemanden bor i Grønland. Det er ganske sikkert og vist. Desværre er der folk i visse lande, der nogle gange har fået en anden opfattelse.
www.greenland-travel.dk
December 10, 2025 at 10:35 AM
Nope. There is a reason we Danes are so invested in hanging on to Greenland.
"Some people have strangely developed the belief that Santa Claus is from Finland. Those of us who know for sure that Santa Claus lives in Greenland do obviously not concur".
www.greenland-travel.dk/inspiration/...
"Some people have strangely developed the belief that Santa Claus is from Finland. Those of us who know for sure that Santa Claus lives in Greenland do obviously not concur".
www.greenland-travel.dk/inspiration/...
There are reportedly claims that it was the last operational An-22, which had been pulled back into service after decommissioning last year.
That still raises some questions though.
bsky.app/profile/paxl...
That still raises some questions though.
bsky.app/profile/paxl...
If so, it could be RF-09309 (pictured here). It was decommissioned in 2024 and set to become a museum exhibit.
Some sources however indicate that three remain active (RA-09329, RA-09341 and RA-09342), with another two units in storage (RA-08830 and RA-09344).
All are based in Migalovo, near Tver.
Some sources however indicate that three remain active (RA-09329, RA-09341 and RA-09342), with another two units in storage (RA-08830 and RA-09344).
All are based in Migalovo, near Tver.
December 9, 2025 at 2:15 PM
There are reportedly claims that it was the last operational An-22, which had been pulled back into service after decommissioning last year.
That still raises some questions though.
bsky.app/profile/paxl...
That still raises some questions though.
bsky.app/profile/paxl...
If so, it could be RF-09309 (pictured here). It was decommissioned in 2024 and set to become a museum exhibit.
Some sources however indicate that three remain active (RA-09329, RA-09341 and RA-09342), with another two units in storage (RA-08830 and RA-09344).
All are based in Migalovo, near Tver.
Some sources however indicate that three remain active (RA-09329, RA-09341 and RA-09342), with another two units in storage (RA-08830 and RA-09344).
All are based in Migalovo, near Tver.
December 9, 2025 at 11:41 AM
If so, it could be RF-09309 (pictured here). It was decommissioned in 2024 and set to become a museum exhibit.
Some sources however indicate that three remain active (RA-09329, RA-09341 and RA-09342), with another two units in storage (RA-08830 and RA-09344).
All are based in Migalovo, near Tver.
Some sources however indicate that three remain active (RA-09329, RA-09341 and RA-09342), with another two units in storage (RA-08830 and RA-09344).
All are based in Migalovo, near Tver.