Reposted
OTD in 2008, soon after I invaded Georgia, I was interviewed by Germany's biggest TV channel ARD in which I said I recognize all of Ukraine’s borders, including Crimea.
3 days later we claimed a “sphere of influence” that includes Ukraine.
3 days later we claimed a “sphere of influence” that includes Ukraine.
August 28, 2025 at 9:52 AM
OTD in 2008, soon after I invaded Georgia, I was interviewed by Germany's biggest TV channel ARD in which I said I recognize all of Ukraine’s borders, including Crimea.
3 days later we claimed a “sphere of influence” that includes Ukraine.
3 days later we claimed a “sphere of influence” that includes Ukraine.
@ernietedeschi.bsky.social Love the dinosaur on the background
July 1, 2025 at 5:54 PM
@ernietedeschi.bsky.social Love the dinosaur on the background
Who’s the Fed official who has penciled in the same GDP growth forecast at 2.4%-2.5% for 2025-2027? At potential, no changes vs December.
Guesses welcome :)
Guesses welcome :)
March 20, 2025 at 1:43 PM
Who’s the Fed official who has penciled in the same GDP growth forecast at 2.4%-2.5% for 2025-2027? At potential, no changes vs December.
Guesses welcome :)
Guesses welcome :)
Reposted
Preliminary estimates of the January PCE inflation figures, which will probably change after the January PPI release on Thursday morning, currently project core PCE at around 0.36% (it was 0.50% one year earlier).
That would raise the 6-month annualized rate but lower the 12-month to 2.7%
That would raise the 6-month annualized rate but lower the 12-month to 2.7%
February 12, 2025 at 11:09 PM
Preliminary estimates of the January PCE inflation figures, which will probably change after the January PPI release on Thursday morning, currently project core PCE at around 0.36% (it was 0.50% one year earlier).
That would raise the 6-month annualized rate but lower the 12-month to 2.7%
That would raise the 6-month annualized rate but lower the 12-month to 2.7%
100%
Lael Brainard: “Any definition of a soft landing” would consider the current episode, where inflation has fallen from a peak of more than 7% in 2022 to around 2.5%, to be a “very, very soft landing.”
www.wsj.com/livecoverage...
www.wsj.com/livecoverage...
White House Adviser: U.S. Achieved a ‘Very, Very Soft Landing’
The U.S. economy has successfully achieved a soft landing, with inflation returning to more normal levels while the labor market grows steadily, said Lael Brainard, the director of the White House Nat...
www.wsj.com
January 20, 2025 at 1:45 PM
100%
Post PPI & CPI reports, we look for core PCE inflation to stay largely in check at 0.20% m/m in December.
More importantly, core PCE inflation is expected to have averaged 0.19% m/m over the July-December period -already at spitting distance from the 2% target.
Governor Waller is onto something.
More importantly, core PCE inflation is expected to have averaged 0.19% m/m over the July-December period -already at spitting distance from the 2% target.
Governor Waller is onto something.
January 16, 2025 at 3:46 PM
Post PPI & CPI reports, we look for core PCE inflation to stay largely in check at 0.20% m/m in December.
More importantly, core PCE inflation is expected to have averaged 0.19% m/m over the July-December period -already at spitting distance from the 2% target.
Governor Waller is onto something.
More importantly, core PCE inflation is expected to have averaged 0.19% m/m over the July-December period -already at spitting distance from the 2% target.
Governor Waller is onto something.
Mi momento ha llegado 💫
December 23, 2024 at 2:08 PM
Mi momento ha llegado 💫
Following today’s PPI numbers, core PCE inflation is likely to print 0.14% m/m in Nov - lowest m/m gain in 2024 @nicktimiraos.bsky.social
Also, not concerned about claims. Today’s jump mostly due to seasonality. Tracking the 2019 nsa data very closely.
Also, not concerned about claims. Today’s jump mostly due to seasonality. Tracking the 2019 nsa data very closely.
December 12, 2024 at 2:09 PM
Following today’s PPI numbers, core PCE inflation is likely to print 0.14% m/m in Nov - lowest m/m gain in 2024 @nicktimiraos.bsky.social
Also, not concerned about claims. Today’s jump mostly due to seasonality. Tracking the 2019 nsa data very closely.
Also, not concerned about claims. Today’s jump mostly due to seasonality. Tracking the 2019 nsa data very closely.
Reposted
Economists who produce detailed inflation forecasts expect the November CPI to show that core prices rose about the same as in October, up 0.27% to hold the 12-month rate at 3.3%
The median forecast has headline CPI rising to 2.7% from 2.6%.
The median forecast has headline CPI rising to 2.7% from 2.6%.
December 10, 2024 at 2:56 AM
Economists who produce detailed inflation forecasts expect the November CPI to show that core prices rose about the same as in October, up 0.27% to hold the 12-month rate at 3.3%
The median forecast has headline CPI rising to 2.7% from 2.6%.
The median forecast has headline CPI rising to 2.7% from 2.6%.
If you’re slightly concerned by this week’s increase in jobless claims, wait for the market reaction next week when it rises to ~240k :)
Mostly seasonal noise.
Mostly seasonal noise.
December 5, 2024 at 1:45 PM
If you’re slightly concerned by this week’s increase in jobless claims, wait for the market reaction next week when it rises to ~240k :)
Mostly seasonal noise.
Mostly seasonal noise.
Fed in 2021: No liftoff until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with maximum employment…
FED'S BOWMAN: IT'S CONCERNING WE ARE RECALIBRATING POLICY BUT HAVEN'T REACHED THE INFLATION GOAL.
Okay but didn't she just vote in favor of the most recent rate cut?
@mckonomy.bsky.social
@steveliesman.bsky.social
Okay but didn't she just vote in favor of the most recent rate cut?
@mckonomy.bsky.social
@steveliesman.bsky.social
November 20, 2024 at 6:42 PM
Fed in 2021: No liftoff until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with maximum employment…
Reposted
A tale of two platforms:
BlueSky user numbers have hit a new record high in recent days, while the number of people deleting their accounts on X/Twitter has rocketed 🚀
BlueSky user numbers have hit a new record high in recent days, while the number of people deleting their accounts on X/Twitter has rocketed 🚀
November 13, 2024 at 11:21 AM
A tale of two platforms:
BlueSky user numbers have hit a new record high in recent days, while the number of people deleting their accounts on X/Twitter has rocketed 🚀
BlueSky user numbers have hit a new record high in recent days, while the number of people deleting their accounts on X/Twitter has rocketed 🚀
Following today’s CPI report we look for PCE prices to rise 0.22% m/m and 0.25% for the core in Oct. We will finalize our forecast after PPI data tomorrow.
Another 25bp rate reduction is still in the cards for December though Nov data (CPI/PCE, jobs) will have the last word.
#TDStrategy
Another 25bp rate reduction is still in the cards for December though Nov data (CPI/PCE, jobs) will have the last word.
#TDStrategy
November 13, 2024 at 5:49 PM
Following today’s CPI report we look for PCE prices to rise 0.22% m/m and 0.25% for the core in Oct. We will finalize our forecast after PPI data tomorrow.
Another 25bp rate reduction is still in the cards for December though Nov data (CPI/PCE, jobs) will have the last word.
#TDStrategy
Another 25bp rate reduction is still in the cards for December though Nov data (CPI/PCE, jobs) will have the last word.
#TDStrategy