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K @kate10010.bsky.social · 16h

Hope it doesn’t sound like I’m downplaying it like “it’s part of an act” or whatever, it’s real, they want the US to be 100% white and it’s a real “what the actual fuck” moment

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K @kate10010.bsky.social · 16h

Both practicing and performing extreme levels of racism. I say “performing,” because like, yeah, this is a policy outcome they want but no this isn’t going to meaningfully change the racial composition of the US, it’s mostly a “fuck you” to own the libs.

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K @kate10010.bsky.social · 16h

This is the kind of horrible thing where I have to say, yeah this is worse than I expected.

“Ban refugees?” - yes
“Charter planes to bring in white South Africans and Europeans but only if they promise they are super racist” - no, just not something that was on my radar as a possibility

The New York Times @nytimes.com · 23h

Breaking News: President Trump is considering an overhaul to the U.S. refugee program that would favor mostly white people, documents show.

Trump Considers Overhaul of Refugee System That Would Favor White People

The proposals would transform a program aimed at helping the most vulnerable people in the world into one that gives preference to mostly white people who say they are being persecuted.

nyti.ms

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K @kate10010.bsky.social · 1d

PCE captures a lot that is not in the CES. Not sure if this makes the top 10% stuff plausible or not

Data Comparison
The Consumer Expenditure Surveys (CE) estimates from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and the PCE from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) are two of the leading sources of household expenditure data in the United States. While the two measures have similar goals, their approaches are vastly different, resulting in significantly different accounts of consumer spending.
As seen in Chart 1 below, estimates of annual aggregates from the CE have historically shown to be significantly lower than that of the PCE, with CE aggregates ranging from 48 to 65 percent of the PCE estimates. This deviation is directly attributed to coverage, definitional, and measurement differences associated with each product. For more information on these differences, please see Understanding the Relationship: CE Survey and PCE.
Looking closer at just comparable categories between the two products, service expenditure aggregates have historically aligned much closer than estimates of goods. Overall, for both all items and comparable items, services and non-durables have been relatively stable over time, while durables have displayed larger changes year-to-year. For more information on these detailed expenditure ratios, please see the PCE tab in CE data comparisons. For more information on how items for each product were aligned for this comparison, please see the crosswalk listed in the supporting documentation below.

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K @kate10010.bsky.social · 1d

I believe it’s not from BLS CES, it’s from Survey of consumer finance and follows BEA definitions for “Personal Outlays” : PCE + Personal Int Payments + Personal Current Transfer payments.

www.economy.com/getfile?q=8D...

From Moodys COMPARING WITH THE CONSUMER EXPENDITURE SURVEY
While our estimates of personal outlays are frequently compared with those from the Consumer Expenditure Survey, key differences arise due to methodology, data sources and definitional scope. The CES relies on consumer surveys, which are subject to errors from respondents' inaccurate recall or reluctance to report some spending. By contrast, our estimate of personal outlays is derived from asset and liability flows in the Financial Accounts, avoiding these survey-related biases.
There are also several significant definitional differences. The CES measures consumer expenditures, whereas our estimates follow the BEA's definition of personal outlays. Personal outlays include, in addition to consumer spending, interest payments on consumer installment debt and transfers such as donations. Moreover, healthcare expenditures differ meaningfully between the two datasets. The CES captures only out-of-pocket payments for health insurance and medical costs, whereas the BEA measure includes total medical spending, regardless of
Moody's Analytics
Estimates of Personal Savings, Personal Outlays and Excess Savings by Demographic Group
whether it is paid out-of-pocket, by insurance, or provided for free. Housing expenses are also measured differently: The CES records actual rent payments and homeownership costs, while the BEA approach measures owners' equivalent rent, which assumes homeowners pay themselves rent. The cost of financial services and other spending categories also differs across datasets.
As a result of these methodological and definitional differences, CES estimates of consumer expenditures by demographic group may not align with our estimates of personal outlays.
However, these discrepancies primarily reflect differences in measurement approaches rather than inconsistencies in economic trends.

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K @kate10010.bsky.social · 1d

As well as some attribution to cohort changing

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K @kate10010.bsky.social · 1d

I mean, you can “2021 people were flush with cash thus % who carried balances declined a bit and delinquencies plummeted, 2024 things are tighter so balances are declining b/c people are more worried about the future while delinquencies rise” just not sure about it

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K @kate10010.bsky.social · 1d

Could be? Just hard to make a lot of these explanations fit both 2020-2021 and 2024.

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K @kate10010.bsky.social · 1d

I’m never finding a seat in the Centurion lounge again

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K @kate10010.bsky.social · 1d

Yeah good point. The steady decline is just interesting … doesn’t really look like any other types of data. Maybe carrying a balance is partly just a behavioral thing and people’s perception around it have changed?

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K @kate10010.bsky.social · 1d

Still weird you wouldn’t see some transition from “no balance” to “balance” while delinquencies rise

Fed reserve US delinquency rates all ccs, up to 3.05% 6/30/25 from low of 1.5% in 2021

There’s a lot of diff delinquency data, I’m not sure if this is best series

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K @kate10010.bsky.social · 1d

Some people who would carry a balance turning to BNPL?

Use of BNPL, 10% in 2021 to 15% in 2024. 24% of users have paid late

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K @kate10010.bsky.social · 1d

Anyone else find the right surprising given rise in delinquencies?

Charts titled “more people are paying it off” left is share of Americans with credit card, declined to 80% in 2024 from peak of 84% in 2021 (vs 77% 2015), right is share of cc holders (I think?) that carry a balance, steady decline through past decade to 45% (from 57% in 2015)

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K @kate10010.bsky.social · 2d

I’m a huge reader and think people should read more! But I read lots of things including trash like the Jack Reacher books and reading those is not more intellectually stimulating than watching a good movie/ TV show (or listening to a good audio book!)

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K @kate10010.bsky.social · 2d

I disagree on previous post about not taking people seriously if they don’t read non-fic, but I agree on this. I hold the very unpop opinion that listening to audiobooks is not “reading,” and feel the only reason people are so viscerally offended by this is some belief that “reading” is virtuous

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K @kate10010.bsky.social · 2d

I read a lot of very inappropriate books in elementary school but I think most Michael Chricton were fine? I also read lots of Agathie Christie. And tons of the classics, thats not most kids’ cup of tea but Count of Monte Cristo etc?

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K @kate10010.bsky.social · 2d

TBC, Biden, like basically all policy makers in the US was overly deferential to Israel and there’s lots of things he could have and should have done differently.

“Who’s the fcking superpower here?” - Bill Clinton, a question he and every other President apparently could not answer

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K @kate10010.bsky.social · 2d

This is a little glib but it’s pretty weird seeing so many on the left saying “why didn’t Biden act like Trump” vis a vis Gaza / Israel and uh, I’d really love to see their reaction if Biden kept tweeting stuff like “Palestinians you are DEAD there will be HELL TO PAY, all HELL WILL BREAK OUT”

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K @kate10010.bsky.social · 3d

Anyway, 3 of the towns in MS where people were killed in shootings this weekend are extremely poor and 60-80% Black, people saying “why don’t they send the national guard to MS?!” sarcastically- uh, they’d probably love to, think about what you’re saying right now

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K @kate10010.bsky.social · 3d

It’s noticeable that the median poster here thinks of white rednecks when they think of “the South” despite a lot of Southern states having pretty high non-white populations.

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K @kate10010.bsky.social · 3d

I mean, smartphones might be ushering in the end of civilization but in the meantime it’s pretty wild how good the cameras we carry everywhere are now

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K @kate10010.bsky.social · 4d

Yeah, I mean this mindset is entirely foreign to me and that’s why I don’t have $60M.

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K @kate10010.bsky.social · 5d

Yes, just googled it is MD law. It’s actually the same in NY for edibles, but it’s “per serving.” This is technically illegal in NY, it’s labeled as 4 servings so max should be 40 mg (but I guess nobody cares and they could always just change the ‘serving’ size to get around it anyway)

K @kate10010.bsky.social · 5d

Maybe I’m just old and a lightweight but really feels like that shouldn’t be legal.

Max of like.. 10 mg THC / 8 oz or something seems reasonable (that’s still a lot!)

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K @kate10010.bsky.social · 5d

Set was great. Epidemic of yapping continues. These people need to be doing more drugs and going completely non verbal

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