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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 10h

It’s true. But they also saw film of him for three years in KC, and decided to trade an actual NFL draft pick for him.

Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 11h

I have no idea how a team could have watched his special teams snaps with KC and thought, huh, maybe we should try that too!!

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 12h

I don’t disagree, but he’s very clearly the player that Worthy has replaced on the field. See how his snaps went down to below 50% ever week since worthy came back in week 4?

bsky.app/profile/jose...

Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 2d

Chiefs Weekly Snap Counts!

JuJu with his lowest snap share of the season
Brown has been at 52% past three games
Thornton with season lows
Worthy staying around 75% since his return
Gray outsnapped Kelce
Pacheco with 77%(!!) snap share!
Brashard Smith with 6 beautiful snaps

Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 12h

Defense:

Cook continues to be replaced for random drives by CRW.
Nohl continues to be the #3 CB.
Hicks with a season low in snaps. Was Chiefs D in base a lot more this week?
Danna's second game back, but it seems like Omenihu has jumped him on the depth chart.
ONL not getting a ton of playtime.

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 12h

Pillboxes!! DET @ KC

Chiefs used 6 OL twice, once on Mahomes TD run

Pacheco got no 3rd down snaps in first half, but 5 in second half.
B.Smith continues to get 6 snaps and 4 touches.
Thornton has continued to lose snaps with Worthy back.
Noah Gray outsnapped Kelce. Chiefs used a lot of 2 TE plays.

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 1d

It's been a wild ride so far, for sure. And a great deal of uncertainty about what teams are actually #good.

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 1d

Many thanks to @mrcaseb.com for helping me think through some of the issues with the graphic, and for building the {nflseedR} package, which I use to generate the seedings for each week!

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 1d

Here's the NFC!

Baker finally made the jump to #1!
Eagles dropped from #1 to #4 after losing to Giants.
SF is somehow still hanging on by a thread.
GB is back on the rise after a tumultuous week 3 and 4
LAR have been very up and down this season.

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 1d

Conference Seeding Movement!!

Here's how the AFC has looked after each week.

The Daniel Jones led Colts have been #1 for 4 out of 6 weeks. The Chargers and Bills each took a turn at #1, but fell off.
The Bengals spent 3 weeks at 4, and have dropped precisely two spots each week since then.

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 1d

Here's a look at how the Super Bowl odds have moved from the beginning of the season until now for teams with at least 5% chance to win the Super Bowl.

Bills have had a lot of movement, and ugly fall.
Colts have consistently moved upward
Rams and Bucs are the same team

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 1d

Can Your Team Win The Super Bowl?

The high-flying Bills have lost a ton of their lead over the past two weeks. They lose 3.3 points this week, and lost 3 points last week. They went from a 17.3% SB chance to just an 11% chance.

The Lions dropped, while the Chiefs jumped from 5th place to 2nd.

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 2d

😂

Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 2d

“Code written by AI”

🏰meg⚔️ @Birthright Audiobook! @impavid.us · 6d

In honor of spooky month, share a 4 word horror story that only someone in your profession would understand

I'll go first: Six page commercial lease.

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 2d

On to Defense:

Nohl Williams with season highs after only 4 snaps last week
Fulton a healthy(?) scratch
Hicks with a massive drop in snaps, out-snapped by CRW
Chenal with season highs
ONL back, and got a season low in snaps
Karlaftis playing a ton of snaps this season
Danna not getting starter reps

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 2d

Chiefs Weekly Snap Counts!

JuJu with his lowest snap share of the season
Brown has been at 52% past three games
Thornton with season lows
Worthy staying around 75% since his return
Gray outsnapped Kelce
Pacheco with 77%(!!) snap share!
Brashard Smith with 6 beautiful snaps

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 2d

I'm pretty sure that just
summarize(n = n(),
.by = date)

is AI these days...

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Reposted by Joseph Hefner

Dan Pizzuta @danpizzuta.bsky.social · 3d

Hollywood Brown TD dots. Excellent blocking to clear the path.

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 5d

Lions @ Chiefs injury report:

Chiefs have all players available.

Lions down a starting CB, Alim McNeill, who hasn't played at all this season, and two special teamers.

They also have a lengthy Questionable list, with two players who Did Not Practice (DNP) at all this week.

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 6d

All of Philly tonight:

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Reposted by Joseph Hefner

Bryan Knowles @brykno.bsky.social · 6d

Step one of my "crazy, longshot Giants playoff scenario" was upsetting the Eagles tonight...

Bryan Knowles @brykno.bsky.social · 7d

The New York Giants actually have lower odds than the Jets in FTN's playoff sims at just 1.1% -- the difference between the two conferences and a much harder schedule will do that. Hey, Jaxson Dart is kinda fun, though!

Let's go ahead and get THEM into the postseason too, why not.

A hypothetical scenario showing the New York Giants getting into the playoffs at 9-8.

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 6d

The New York Football Giants--who have a 0.1% chance to win the Super Bowl, tied for last place--are 9 minutes and 41 seconds away from taking down the 4th ranked team.

They took down the 7th ranked Chargers two weeks ago.

They lost to the Saints--a fellow 0.1 %'er--in between these two games.

Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 7d

*Updated with all the teams this time!*

Can Your Team Win the Super Bowl?

Bills still leading, but lost 3 percentage points
Lions gained 2.5
Eagles lost 2.1
Chiefs gained 0.5, despite losing to the Jags

There are 13(!!) teams with Super Bowl odds under 1%. We are 5 weeks into the season.

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 6d

Yeah, makes sense. I’m using your function to return actual rankings from actual results, which it works for, but wasn’t its primary use case.

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 6d

Yeah, it's coin flip as final tiebreaker as default. I ran it a few times while creating this graphic, and noticed that team logos were shifting around 🤣

So I have the final tiebreaker as points scored.

nflseedR::nfl_standings(
schedules_subset,
ranks = "CONF",
tiebreaker_depth = "POINTS")

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 6d

𝗡𝗙𝗟 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝟲 𝗢𝗱𝗱𝘀 🎯

🔒 𝗟𝗼𝗰𝗸 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸: GB -14 vs CIN
🎲 𝗣𝗶𝗰𝗸 ’𝗘𝗺 𝗦𝗽𝗲𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹: JAX -1.5 vs SEA
💥 𝗦𝗵𝗼𝗼𝘁𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝗚𝗮𝗺𝗲: DET @ KC (52.5 total)
😴 𝗗𝗲𝗳𝗲𝗻𝘀𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗚𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗱: CLE @ PIT (37.5 total)

What game are you watching this week? 👀

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 6d

Eh, week 1 is hard. Obviously record first, then strength of schedule (not very useful here), strength of victory (point diff), and finally total points scored.

Or at least I think that's how it goes. I'm using a premade function from nflverse.com that @mrcaseb.com made.

nflverse

nflverse is a collection of data and R packages designed for NFL analytics! - nflverse

nflverse.com

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