Joseph Hefner
@josephjefe.bsky.social
You'll see mostly Chiefs and NFL analytics and graphics here. I produce work for @KCSportsNetwork. JosephJefe on most social media platforms
Website: https://www.JefesHandiwork.com/
Website: https://www.JefesHandiwork.com/
Seeding Charts: NFC Edition
As everyone expected to start the season, the Chicago Bears are the current NFC 1 seed. They started from the bottom, now they're here. With a big game against division rival Packers coming up this week, they'll have to defend their spot immediately.
As everyone expected to start the season, the Chicago Bears are the current NFC 1 seed. They started from the bottom, now they're here. With a big game against division rival Packers coming up this week, they'll have to defend their spot immediately.
December 2, 2025 at 8:59 PM
Seeding Charts: NFC Edition
As everyone expected to start the season, the Chicago Bears are the current NFC 1 seed. They started from the bottom, now they're here. With a big game against division rival Packers coming up this week, they'll have to defend their spot immediately.
As everyone expected to start the season, the Chicago Bears are the current NFC 1 seed. They started from the bottom, now they're here. With a big game against division rival Packers coming up this week, they'll have to defend their spot immediately.
Seeding Charts: AFC Edition
Not many changes this week. The Colts and Jags switch places, as the Colts fall from 3rd to 6th. The Chiefs somehow maintained 10th place, despite their loss on Thanksgiving Day.
The Jets jumped from 15th to 13th!
Not many changes this week. The Colts and Jags switch places, as the Colts fall from 3rd to 6th. The Chiefs somehow maintained 10th place, despite their loss on Thanksgiving Day.
The Jets jumped from 15th to 13th!
December 2, 2025 at 8:56 PM
Seeding Charts: AFC Edition
Not many changes this week. The Colts and Jags switch places, as the Colts fall from 3rd to 6th. The Chiefs somehow maintained 10th place, despite their loss on Thanksgiving Day.
The Jets jumped from 15th to 13th!
Not many changes this week. The Colts and Jags switch places, as the Colts fall from 3rd to 6th. The Chiefs somehow maintained 10th place, despite their loss on Thanksgiving Day.
The Jets jumped from 15th to 13th!
Can Your Team Win The Super Bowl?
The Rams are the betting favorites for the Super Bowl, and by a lot. They are 6.3 percentage points higher than the Eagles at 2nd place.
Chiefs are 3rd most likely to win the Super Bowl, but will need help to even make the playoffs, as the 10 seed in the AFC.
The Rams are the betting favorites for the Super Bowl, and by a lot. They are 6.3 percentage points higher than the Eagles at 2nd place.
Chiefs are 3rd most likely to win the Super Bowl, but will need help to even make the playoffs, as the 10 seed in the AFC.
November 25, 2025 at 8:11 PM
Can Your Team Win The Super Bowl?
The Rams are the betting favorites for the Super Bowl, and by a lot. They are 6.3 percentage points higher than the Eagles at 2nd place.
Chiefs are 3rd most likely to win the Super Bowl, but will need help to even make the playoffs, as the 10 seed in the AFC.
The Rams are the betting favorites for the Super Bowl, and by a lot. They are 6.3 percentage points higher than the Eagles at 2nd place.
Chiefs are 3rd most likely to win the Super Bowl, but will need help to even make the playoffs, as the 10 seed in the AFC.
NFC Playoff Seeding Charts!
The Rams are finally in sole possession of the 1 seed, after the Eagles lost to the Cowboys.
The Bears, who were the 15 seed after week 2, have somehow clawed their way to 3rd seed.
The Lions are currently out of the playoffs, for the second week in a row.
The Rams are finally in sole possession of the 1 seed, after the Eagles lost to the Cowboys.
The Bears, who were the 15 seed after week 2, have somehow clawed their way to 3rd seed.
The Lions are currently out of the playoffs, for the second week in a row.
November 25, 2025 at 8:05 PM
NFC Playoff Seeding Charts!
The Rams are finally in sole possession of the 1 seed, after the Eagles lost to the Cowboys.
The Bears, who were the 15 seed after week 2, have somehow clawed their way to 3rd seed.
The Lions are currently out of the playoffs, for the second week in a row.
The Rams are finally in sole possession of the 1 seed, after the Eagles lost to the Cowboys.
The Bears, who were the 15 seed after week 2, have somehow clawed their way to 3rd seed.
The Lions are currently out of the playoffs, for the second week in a row.
AFC Playoff Seeding Charts!
After 12 weeks, its like the AFC is back to the old 2014 Brady, Manning, Luck days, with NE, DEN, and IND all on top.
The Ravens just made a 6 seed jump, from 10 to 4, after beating the Steelers.
The Bills are the 7 seed, and the Chiefs are on the outside looking in.
After 12 weeks, its like the AFC is back to the old 2014 Brady, Manning, Luck days, with NE, DEN, and IND all on top.
The Ravens just made a 6 seed jump, from 10 to 4, after beating the Steelers.
The Bills are the 7 seed, and the Chiefs are on the outside looking in.
November 25, 2025 at 8:02 PM
AFC Playoff Seeding Charts!
After 12 weeks, its like the AFC is back to the old 2014 Brady, Manning, Luck days, with NE, DEN, and IND all on top.
The Ravens just made a 6 seed jump, from 10 to 4, after beating the Steelers.
The Bills are the 7 seed, and the Chiefs are on the outside looking in.
After 12 weeks, its like the AFC is back to the old 2014 Brady, Manning, Luck days, with NE, DEN, and IND all on top.
The Ravens just made a 6 seed jump, from 10 to 4, after beating the Steelers.
The Bills are the 7 seed, and the Chiefs are on the outside looking in.
NFC Conference Standings!
Two weeks ago, the Packers and Eagles were the 1st and 2nd ranked teams. They just played on MNF. The Eagles squeaked out a 10-7 victory to maintain their top seeding.
The Lions have been all over the place, but jumped up to 3rd after a decisive win over the Commanders.
Two weeks ago, the Packers and Eagles were the 1st and 2nd ranked teams. They just played on MNF. The Eagles squeaked out a 10-7 victory to maintain their top seeding.
The Lions have been all over the place, but jumped up to 3rd after a decisive win over the Commanders.
November 11, 2025 at 11:16 PM
NFC Conference Standings!
Two weeks ago, the Packers and Eagles were the 1st and 2nd ranked teams. They just played on MNF. The Eagles squeaked out a 10-7 victory to maintain their top seeding.
The Lions have been all over the place, but jumped up to 3rd after a decisive win over the Commanders.
Two weeks ago, the Packers and Eagles were the 1st and 2nd ranked teams. They just played on MNF. The Eagles squeaked out a 10-7 victory to maintain their top seeding.
The Lions have been all over the place, but jumped up to 3rd after a decisive win over the Commanders.
AFC Conference Standings!
Colts have maintained a strangle-hold on the #1 seed, despite some recent struggles.
The Broncos have clawed their way up to 2nd.
The Chiefs--who are the betting favorites to win the Super Bowl--are 8th.
The Titans have been the most consistently ranked team.
Colts have maintained a strangle-hold on the #1 seed, despite some recent struggles.
The Broncos have clawed their way up to 2nd.
The Chiefs--who are the betting favorites to win the Super Bowl--are 8th.
The Titans have been the most consistently ranked team.
November 11, 2025 at 11:12 PM
AFC Conference Standings!
Colts have maintained a strangle-hold on the #1 seed, despite some recent struggles.
The Broncos have clawed their way up to 2nd.
The Chiefs--who are the betting favorites to win the Super Bowl--are 8th.
The Titans have been the most consistently ranked team.
Colts have maintained a strangle-hold on the #1 seed, despite some recent struggles.
The Broncos have clawed their way up to 2nd.
The Chiefs--who are the betting favorites to win the Super Bowl--are 8th.
The Titans have been the most consistently ranked team.
Here is how the odds for teams with greater than 5% SB probability have moved over time.
The Bills have fallen from grace, and hard.
The Chiefs took over that spot in a big way, then tanked due to Chiefs loss vs Bills.
The Rams have steadily climbed week after week until now they're second.
The Bills have fallen from grace, and hard.
The Chiefs took over that spot in a big way, then tanked due to Chiefs loss vs Bills.
The Rams have steadily climbed week after week until now they're second.
November 11, 2025 at 11:08 PM
Here is how the odds for teams with greater than 5% SB probability have moved over time.
The Bills have fallen from grace, and hard.
The Chiefs took over that spot in a big way, then tanked due to Chiefs loss vs Bills.
The Rams have steadily climbed week after week until now they're second.
The Bills have fallen from grace, and hard.
The Chiefs took over that spot in a big way, then tanked due to Chiefs loss vs Bills.
The Rams have steadily climbed week after week until now they're second.
Can Your Team Win the Super Bowl?
The Chiefs--who got spanked by the Bills in week 9, went on bye, and are currently ranked 8th in the AFC, thus not in the playoffs--are the betting favorites to win the Super Bowl.
The aforementioned Bills have the 7th best odds.
This has been a weird season...
The Chiefs--who got spanked by the Bills in week 9, went on bye, and are currently ranked 8th in the AFC, thus not in the playoffs--are the betting favorites to win the Super Bowl.
The aforementioned Bills have the 7th best odds.
This has been a weird season...
November 11, 2025 at 11:02 PM
Can Your Team Win the Super Bowl?
The Chiefs--who got spanked by the Bills in week 9, went on bye, and are currently ranked 8th in the AFC, thus not in the playoffs--are the betting favorites to win the Super Bowl.
The aforementioned Bills have the 7th best odds.
This has been a weird season...
The Chiefs--who got spanked by the Bills in week 9, went on bye, and are currently ranked 8th in the AFC, thus not in the playoffs--are the betting favorites to win the Super Bowl.
The aforementioned Bills have the 7th best odds.
This has been a weird season...
I almost died reading this part. Laughed so hard I choked.
😂 🤣
😂 🤣
November 7, 2025 at 3:55 AM
I almost died reading this part. Laughed so hard I choked.
😂 🤣
😂 🤣
Chiefs have an opportunity to double-dip this week, for the 4th time this season.
November 2, 2025 at 11:05 PM
Chiefs have an opportunity to double-dip this week, for the 4th time this season.
It's KC @ BUF!!!
These two teams are ranked very similarly. On O and D, KC edges BUF out on overall EPA, but it's close. Both D's struggle against the run. KC has best success rate overall and passing. BUF has significant edge at creating explosives plays, while KC has been better at limiting them.
These two teams are ranked very similarly. On O and D, KC edges BUF out on overall EPA, but it's close. Both D's struggle against the run. KC has best success rate overall and passing. BUF has significant edge at creating explosives plays, while KC has been better at limiting them.
November 2, 2025 at 3:48 PM
It's KC @ BUF!!!
These two teams are ranked very similarly. On O and D, KC edges BUF out on overall EPA, but it's close. Both D's struggle against the run. KC has best success rate overall and passing. BUF has significant edge at creating explosives plays, while KC has been better at limiting them.
These two teams are ranked very similarly. On O and D, KC edges BUF out on overall EPA, but it's close. Both D's struggle against the run. KC has best success rate overall and passing. BUF has significant edge at creating explosives plays, while KC has been better at limiting them.
Chiefs @ Bills Injury Report:
Both teams missing starters. Chiefs LT Simmons is missing for the 4th straight game. His backup, Jaylon Moore, is questionable. RG Trey Smith is also questionable, so Chiefs OL pretty banged up right now.
Bills missing a couple major pieces on defense, plus Palmer.
Both teams missing starters. Chiefs LT Simmons is missing for the 4th straight game. His backup, Jaylon Moore, is questionable. RG Trey Smith is also questionable, so Chiefs OL pretty banged up right now.
Bills missing a couple major pieces on defense, plus Palmer.
October 31, 2025 at 8:58 PM
Chiefs @ Bills Injury Report:
Both teams missing starters. Chiefs LT Simmons is missing for the 4th straight game. His backup, Jaylon Moore, is questionable. RG Trey Smith is also questionable, so Chiefs OL pretty banged up right now.
Bills missing a couple major pieces on defense, plus Palmer.
Both teams missing starters. Chiefs LT Simmons is missing for the 4th straight game. His backup, Jaylon Moore, is questionable. RG Trey Smith is also questionable, so Chiefs OL pretty banged up right now.
Bills missing a couple major pieces on defense, plus Palmer.
Defense!
Hicks with a major resurgence in snaps!! Where'd that come from?!
Cook continues to be replaced on random drives by CRW.
Nohl with 3(?) meaningful snaps.
Jerry Tillery got a ton of work on MNF.
Hicks with a major resurgence in snaps!! Where'd that come from?!
Cook continues to be replaced on random drives by CRW.
Nohl with 3(?) meaningful snaps.
Jerry Tillery got a ton of work on MNF.
October 29, 2025 at 9:04 PM
Defense!
Hicks with a major resurgence in snaps!! Where'd that come from?!
Cook continues to be replaced on random drives by CRW.
Nohl with 3(?) meaningful snaps.
Jerry Tillery got a ton of work on MNF.
Hicks with a major resurgence in snaps!! Where'd that come from?!
Cook continues to be replaced on random drives by CRW.
Nohl with 3(?) meaningful snaps.
Jerry Tillery got a ton of work on MNF.
Pillboxes! WAS @ KC
KC used 7 OL on Hunt's first 4th down conversion.
Pacheco with only one down that wasn't 1st or 2nd.
I think B.Smith had his lowest ration of snaps to touches this game.
Rice and Worthy both with completely full workloads.
Thornton is basically completely phased out.
KC used 7 OL on Hunt's first 4th down conversion.
Pacheco with only one down that wasn't 1st or 2nd.
I think B.Smith had his lowest ration of snaps to touches this game.
Rice and Worthy both with completely full workloads.
Thornton is basically completely phased out.
October 29, 2025 at 9:04 PM
Pillboxes! WAS @ KC
KC used 7 OL on Hunt's first 4th down conversion.
Pacheco with only one down that wasn't 1st or 2nd.
I think B.Smith had his lowest ration of snaps to touches this game.
Rice and Worthy both with completely full workloads.
Thornton is basically completely phased out.
KC used 7 OL on Hunt's first 4th down conversion.
Pacheco with only one down that wasn't 1st or 2nd.
I think B.Smith had his lowest ration of snaps to touches this game.
Rice and Worthy both with completely full workloads.
Thornton is basically completely phased out.
October 28, 2025 at 10:45 PM
NFC Seeding Chart!
The Packers remain atop the standings, while the 49ers have finally fallen (from 2nd to 7th).
Bakers Bucs rise to 3rd place this week, after from 1st to 4th last week.
Those Darn(old) Seahawks continue to stick around, climbing to their highest seed of the season at 4th.
The Packers remain atop the standings, while the 49ers have finally fallen (from 2nd to 7th).
Bakers Bucs rise to 3rd place this week, after from 1st to 4th last week.
Those Darn(old) Seahawks continue to stick around, climbing to their highest seed of the season at 4th.
October 28, 2025 at 7:48 PM
NFC Seeding Chart!
The Packers remain atop the standings, while the 49ers have finally fallen (from 2nd to 7th).
Bakers Bucs rise to 3rd place this week, after from 1st to 4th last week.
Those Darn(old) Seahawks continue to stick around, climbing to their highest seed of the season at 4th.
The Packers remain atop the standings, while the 49ers have finally fallen (from 2nd to 7th).
Bakers Bucs rise to 3rd place this week, after from 1st to 4th last week.
Those Darn(old) Seahawks continue to stick around, climbing to their highest seed of the season at 4th.
AFC Seeding Chart!
In which the Chiefs have finally arrived in the playoffs (as the 7th seed)!!! Cheers and celebrations!
The Patriots started from (near) bottom now they're here (in second place).
The Steelers continue to baffle every expert and ball knower, as they have for the past decade.
In which the Chiefs have finally arrived in the playoffs (as the 7th seed)!!! Cheers and celebrations!
The Patriots started from (near) bottom now they're here (in second place).
The Steelers continue to baffle every expert and ball knower, as they have for the past decade.
October 28, 2025 at 7:44 PM
AFC Seeding Chart!
In which the Chiefs have finally arrived in the playoffs (as the 7th seed)!!! Cheers and celebrations!
The Patriots started from (near) bottom now they're here (in second place).
The Steelers continue to baffle every expert and ball knower, as they have for the past decade.
In which the Chiefs have finally arrived in the playoffs (as the 7th seed)!!! Cheers and celebrations!
The Patriots started from (near) bottom now they're here (in second place).
The Steelers continue to baffle every expert and ball knower, as they have for the past decade.
Can Your Team Win The Super Bowl?
The Chiefs, who are finally, for the first time this season, in the playoffs if they started today (7 seeds), are the prohibitive favorites to win the Super Bowl. They are 4.1 points ahead of the Lions.
DEN, BAL, and TB at 4% as plucky underdog picks.
The Chiefs, who are finally, for the first time this season, in the playoffs if they started today (7 seeds), are the prohibitive favorites to win the Super Bowl. They are 4.1 points ahead of the Lions.
DEN, BAL, and TB at 4% as plucky underdog picks.
October 28, 2025 at 7:41 PM
Can Your Team Win The Super Bowl?
The Chiefs, who are finally, for the first time this season, in the playoffs if they started today (7 seeds), are the prohibitive favorites to win the Super Bowl. They are 4.1 points ahead of the Lions.
DEN, BAL, and TB at 4% as plucky underdog picks.
The Chiefs, who are finally, for the first time this season, in the playoffs if they started today (7 seeds), are the prohibitive favorites to win the Super Bowl. They are 4.1 points ahead of the Lions.
DEN, BAL, and TB at 4% as plucky underdog picks.
If we limit the data to the 2017-2024 seasons, there have been 74 trades in the 8 days leading up to and including the deadline.
That's an average of 9.25 trades per year.
Who's your predictions for the other 8.25 trades?
That's an average of 9.25 trades per year.
Who's your predictions for the other 8.25 trades?
October 27, 2025 at 5:56 PM
If we limit the data to the 2017-2024 seasons, there have been 74 trades in the 8 days leading up to and including the deadline.
That's an average of 9.25 trades per year.
Who's your predictions for the other 8.25 trades?
That's an average of 9.25 trades per year.
Who's your predictions for the other 8.25 trades?
The Monday leading into the final week before the deadline has quietly become one of the league’s busiest trade days, responsible for 5.1% of all in-season deals since 2011.
Today and tomorrow are prime trade days, then not much until next Monday.
Today and tomorrow are prime trade days, then not much until next Monday.
October 27, 2025 at 5:30 PM
The Monday leading into the final week before the deadline has quietly become one of the league’s busiest trade days, responsible for 5.1% of all in-season deals since 2011.
Today and tomorrow are prime trade days, then not much until next Monday.
Today and tomorrow are prime trade days, then not much until next Monday.
NFL fans are beginning to get twitterpated about their teams trading for players.
How often do teams make in-season trades (any trade after the first game is played), and how many of those trades happen in the final week before the deadline (Sunday, Oct 26th through Tuesday, Nov 4th for 2025)?
How often do teams make in-season trades (any trade after the first game is played), and how many of those trades happen in the final week before the deadline (Sunday, Oct 26th through Tuesday, Nov 4th for 2025)?
October 24, 2025 at 4:53 PM
NFL fans are beginning to get twitterpated about their teams trading for players.
How often do teams make in-season trades (any trade after the first game is played), and how many of those trades happen in the final week before the deadline (Sunday, Oct 26th through Tuesday, Nov 4th for 2025)?
How often do teams make in-season trades (any trade after the first game is played), and how many of those trades happen in the final week before the deadline (Sunday, Oct 26th through Tuesday, Nov 4th for 2025)?
Defense
Cook replaced by CRW on two drives this game, before starters were pulled.
Hicks has not been used nearly as much as I expected this season.
Omenihu still above Danna on the depth chart.
Cook replaced by CRW on two drives this game, before starters were pulled.
Hicks has not been used nearly as much as I expected this season.
Omenihu still above Danna on the depth chart.
October 23, 2025 at 5:38 PM
Defense
Cook replaced by CRW on two drives this game, before starters were pulled.
Hicks has not been used nearly as much as I expected this season.
Omenihu still above Danna on the depth chart.
Cook replaced by CRW on two drives this game, before starters were pulled.
Hicks has not been used nearly as much as I expected this season.
Omenihu still above Danna on the depth chart.
Pillboxes! LV @ KC
Real offense had 5 drives, ending in 4 TD's and a FG
Pacheco had 2 3rd down snaps.
After the 2nd drive, Brashard Smith got the touch on every single snap he was in for.
Rice and JuJu were largely not on the field at the same time.
Chiefs using a lot of 12 personnel, with 2 TE's.
Real offense had 5 drives, ending in 4 TD's and a FG
Pacheco had 2 3rd down snaps.
After the 2nd drive, Brashard Smith got the touch on every single snap he was in for.
Rice and JuJu were largely not on the field at the same time.
Chiefs using a lot of 12 personnel, with 2 TE's.
October 23, 2025 at 5:38 PM
Pillboxes! LV @ KC
Real offense had 5 drives, ending in 4 TD's and a FG
Pacheco had 2 3rd down snaps.
After the 2nd drive, Brashard Smith got the touch on every single snap he was in for.
Rice and JuJu were largely not on the field at the same time.
Chiefs using a lot of 12 personnel, with 2 TE's.
Real offense had 5 drives, ending in 4 TD's and a FG
Pacheco had 2 3rd down snaps.
After the 2nd drive, Brashard Smith got the touch on every single snap he was in for.
Rice and JuJu were largely not on the field at the same time.
Chiefs using a lot of 12 personnel, with 2 TE's.
𝗡𝗙𝗟 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝟴 𝗢𝗱𝗱𝘀 🎯
🔒 𝗟𝗼𝗰𝗸 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸: IND -14 vs TEN
🎲 𝗣𝗶𝗰𝗸 ’𝗘𝗺 𝗦𝗽𝗲𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹: HOU -1.5 vs SF
💥 𝗦𝗵𝗼𝗼𝘁𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝗚𝗮𝗺𝗲: DAL @ DEN (50.5 total)
😴 𝗗𝗲𝗳𝗲𝗻𝘀𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗚𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗱: CLE @ NE (40.5 total)
What game are you watching this week? 👀
🔒 𝗟𝗼𝗰𝗸 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸: IND -14 vs TEN
🎲 𝗣𝗶𝗰𝗸 ’𝗘𝗺 𝗦𝗽𝗲𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹: HOU -1.5 vs SF
💥 𝗦𝗵𝗼𝗼𝘁𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝗚𝗮𝗺𝗲: DAL @ DEN (50.5 total)
😴 𝗗𝗲𝗳𝗲𝗻𝘀𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗚𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗱: CLE @ NE (40.5 total)
What game are you watching this week? 👀
October 23, 2025 at 5:19 PM
𝗡𝗙𝗟 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝟴 𝗢𝗱𝗱𝘀 🎯
🔒 𝗟𝗼𝗰𝗸 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸: IND -14 vs TEN
🎲 𝗣𝗶𝗰𝗸 ’𝗘𝗺 𝗦𝗽𝗲𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹: HOU -1.5 vs SF
💥 𝗦𝗵𝗼𝗼𝘁𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝗚𝗮𝗺𝗲: DAL @ DEN (50.5 total)
😴 𝗗𝗲𝗳𝗲𝗻𝘀𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗚𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗱: CLE @ NE (40.5 total)
What game are you watching this week? 👀
🔒 𝗟𝗼𝗰𝗸 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸: IND -14 vs TEN
🎲 𝗣𝗶𝗰𝗸 ’𝗘𝗺 𝗦𝗽𝗲𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹: HOU -1.5 vs SF
💥 𝗦𝗵𝗼𝗼𝘁𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝗚𝗮𝗺𝗲: DAL @ DEN (50.5 total)
😴 𝗗𝗲𝗳𝗲𝗻𝘀𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗚𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗱: CLE @ NE (40.5 total)
What game are you watching this week? 👀