James Cameron
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James Cameron
@jjjcameron.bsky.social

Associate Prof of Modern North American History at the University of Oslo, Norway. Nuclear strategy and arms control.

Norway is not a member state of the European Union (EU). It is associated with the Union through its membership in the European Economic Area (EEA), signed in 1992 and established in 1994. Norway was a founding member of the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) in 1960, which was originally set up as an alternative to the European Economic Community (EEC), the main predecessor of the EU. Norway had considered joining both the EEC and the European Union, but opted to decline following referendums in 1972 and 1994. According to the European Social Survey conducted in 2018, 73.6% of Norwegians would vote 'No' in a referendum to join the European Union. Norway shares land borders with two EU member states, namely Finland and Sweden, and maritime borders with a third, Denmark. .. more

Political science 50%
Economics 14%

From what I've seen, all of the younger MAGAs are worse, which is why US allies can't just wait out Trump II in the hope this goes away.
Junior may actually be worse

“Donald Trump Jr. criticized corruption in Ukraine and suggested Sunday that his father may walk away from the country if it doesn’t make peace with Russia.”

www.politico.eu/article/trum...
Trump’s son suggests president may walk away from Ukraine
Donald Trump Jr. says his father’s unpredictability is forcing people to be intellectually honest.
www.politico.eu

Reposted by James Cameron

Junior may actually be worse

“Donald Trump Jr. criticized corruption in Ukraine and suggested Sunday that his father may walk away from the country if it doesn’t make peace with Russia.”

www.politico.eu/article/trum...
Trump’s son suggests president may walk away from Ukraine
Donald Trump Jr. says his father’s unpredictability is forcing people to be intellectually honest.
www.politico.eu

FIFA made sure that Trump's Special Peace Prize is much bigger than the real World Cup.

"Some people said the lack of US support was ironic given that Elbridge Colby, the under-secretary of defence for policy, had pushed Japan to make clear what role it would play if the US and China went to war over Taiwan."

Yes, almost as if Colby is running his own private defense policy.
Japan frustrated at Trump administration’s silence over row with China
Tokyo asks US to be more vocal in its support after Beijing reacted furiously to prime minister’s comments about Taiwan
www.ft.com

Reposted by James Cameron

Reinforces David Sanger's argument that "great power competition," the leitmotif of Trump I's national security strategy, has been binned.

Looks like Trump II is seeking some kind of spheres of influence-type arrangement with Russia and China.
Superpower Competition: The Missing Chapter in Trump’s Security Strategy
www.nytimes.com

"We respect China's historic military buildup" is quite a surprising message from a US secretary of defense. www.politico.com/news/2025/12...

Separating conventional and nuclear deterrence doesn't make sense, because Europe faces an adversary that has both capabilities and seeks to use them in an integrated way.

NATO did not have separate conv and nuke doctrines against the Warsaw Pact.

Trump & co want to continue to have as free a hand as possible when it comes to military action globally. Large numbers of sophisticated nuclear weapons would arguably facilitate that.

Reposted by James Cameron

Deputy Secy of State Christopher Landau says the US “cannot pretend that we are partners” w/ NATO nations because the European Union—of which many are members—pursues “policies of civilizational suicide.”

Landau is a former clerk of SCOTUS Justice Thomas. Stephen Miller lobbied for his appointment.

Reposted by James Cameron

In other words "who are we trying to deter" and "what are we trying to deter then from doing?" Are nuclear weapons a credible deterrent in these cases? Or are they just another symbol of U.S. power (like tariffs and murder on the high seas) that allows for muscle flexing and bragging rights? (2/2)

Reposted by James Cameron

Absolutely true, but there's a more basic question. If we are not concerned with "great power competition" or defense of our alliances, with economic competition being the only problem, then why do we need nuclear weapons at all? Status and stature? (1/2)

The basic problem with the United States' call for Europe to lead on conventional forces while it takes care of nuclear deterrence.
It's not credible the US would fight a nuclear war over Europe if they aren't willing to contribute conventionally.

Reposted by James Cameron

It's not credible the US would fight a nuclear war over Europe if they aren't willing to contribute conventionally.

Reposted by James Cameron

New on the Strategic Simplicity Podcast - Carnegie's Tong Zhao helps unpack the new PRC arms control white paper. Link below:

"It was also not clear if the 2027 deadline represented the Trump administration position or only the views of some Pentagon officials."

I think we can guess which ones!

"The U.S. officials told their counterparts that if Europe does not meet the 2027 deadline, the U.S. may stop participating in some NATO defense coordination mechanisms, said the sources."

"The United States wants Europe to take over the majority of NATO's conventional defense capabilities, from intelligence to missiles, by 2027, Pentagon officials told diplomats in Washington this week."
Exclusive: US sets 2027 deadline for Europe-led NATO defense, officials say
The United States wants Europe to take over the majority of NATO's conventional defense capabilities, from intelligence to missiles, by 2027, Pentagon officials told diplomats in Washington this week,...
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Weird nod to the famously unsuccessful "New Labour, New Danger" campaign over her right shoulder.

There's not much on means, as opposed to ends, in the National Security Strategy, despite its critique of other NSSs as wish lists.
Also worth noting that apart from some vague wording on rebuilding American industrial capacity the Trump National Security Strategy seems to have no mention about the challenges in rebuilding a US Navy struggling with escalating manpower, maintenance and ship-building crises.

Reposted by James Cameron

Also worth noting that apart from some vague wording on rebuilding American industrial capacity the Trump National Security Strategy seems to have no mention about the challenges in rebuilding a US Navy struggling with escalating manpower, maintenance and ship-building crises.

Reposted by James Cameron

So the “Trump Corollary” to the Monroe Doctrine is just a slightly more overtly imperialist Monroe Doctrine.

But somehow under these conditions the US will still extend nuclear deterrence to Europe — i.e. put itself at risk of nuclear destruction on its allies' behalf.
The NSS signals 2 big shifts for Europe

1. Europe will handle its own security now. They take the 5% commitment literally.

2. US plans lots of political interference to back the far right. This is what "restoring Europe’s civilizational self-confidence and Western identity" means.

Buckle up.
The NSS signals 2 big shifts for Europe

1. Europe will handle its own security now. They take the 5% commitment literally.

2. US plans lots of political interference to back the far right. This is what "restoring Europe’s civilizational self-confidence and Western identity" means.

Buckle up.

The Trump administration's racism both pushes it to abandon Europe as hopelessly lost to "civilizational erasure" and to stand by Europe as "culturally vital to the United States."

What is clear is that racism is the water in which it swims.
Pages 25 to 27 are most relevant here and should be read in their entirety
Pages 25 to 27 are most relevant here and should be read in their entirety

Reposted by James Cameron

None of this is new, but it serves as a stark reminder that the complacency felt after the NATO summit in June was misplaced. It also reminds us that the the strategy of keeping the US on board for as long as possible, has itself grave risks to the democratic fabric of Europe.

It's very Trump to begin your national security strategy with a big rant about everything you think has gone wrong with "American 'strategy.'"
US national security strategy.
Something sure is unrecognisable here, but it’s not Europe.

www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/u...

Saying that you are not willing to commit conventional forces to defend your allies, but are willing to risk nuclear destruction on their behalf is not credible.
This also mirrors one of the suggestions in the 'project 2025' outline - to transform the US role in NATO to that of a 'nightwatcher' only responsible for nuclear deterrence, while the Europeans handle conventional deterrence.