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Reposted by James Breckwoldt

Marta Miori @martamiori.bsky.social · 8h

Great read from James!

Seems simple, but imo the antidote to the ecological fallacy is to just always think of constituency-level party fortunes as the result of changing vote shares (=winning party increasing their vote) *and* changing levels of fragmentation (=losing party losing votes elsewhere)

James Breckwoldt @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social · 13h

1. Ecological Fallacy: just because a constituency goes from one party to another doesn't mean many individual voters made same journey

2. Availability Bias: just because you can easily picture the stereotype of a particular voter doesn't mean that they are numerous in electorate

The Two Psychological Biases to Avoid to Understand Voting Behaviour in 2025

The ecological fallacy and availability bias

jamesbreckwoldt.substack.com

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James Breckwoldt @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social · 9h

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James Breckwoldt @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social · 11h

Good counter points from Marios

👇

Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 11h

Nitpick about Con->LD ecological fallacy - it's true in 2019->2024 (that people are exaggerating the numbers/social-liberalness of the switchers) ...

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Reposted by James Breckwoldt

Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 11h

So it's possible that people are either committing two fallacies simultaneously that kinda-sorta cancel out a bit or taking a longer view.

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Reposted by James Breckwoldt

Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 11h

LD-Con losses in 2024 are small and not very socially liberal *because they follow from losses on that flank in 2015-2017 and 2017-2019*

mariosrichards.substack.com/p/con-2024-l...

(and now I noticed the typo)

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Reposted by James Breckwoldt

James Breckwoldt @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social · 13h

1. Ecological Fallacy: just because a constituency goes from one party to another doesn't mean many individual voters made same journey

2. Availability Bias: just because you can easily picture the stereotype of a particular voter doesn't mean that they are numerous in electorate

The Two Psychological Biases to Avoid to Understand Voting Behaviour in 2025

The ecological fallacy and availability bias

jamesbreckwoldt.substack.com

2 7 32

James Breckwoldt @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social · 13h

1. Ecological Fallacy: just because a constituency goes from one party to another doesn't mean many individual voters made same journey

2. Availability Bias: just because you can easily picture the stereotype of a particular voter doesn't mean that they are numerous in electorate

The Two Psychological Biases to Avoid to Understand Voting Behaviour in 2025

The ecological fallacy and availability bias

jamesbreckwoldt.substack.com

2 7 32

Reposted by James Breckwoldt

Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 1d

The results are clear across both countries: Europeans reject tariffs over other protectionist measures

It doesn’t matter if they’re framed as -
• protection for domestic producers
• funding for green policies 🌱
• retaliation against other nations 🇺🇸

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Reposted by James Breckwoldt

Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 1d

Tariffs might be the word of 2025.

Given the state of *looks around* we asked: is there demand for tariffs in Europe?

@grahn.bsky.social @katharinalawall.bsky.social @sophiemainz.bsky.social Maria Nordbrandt & I show the answer is a resolute no
@jeppjournal.bsky.social

doi.org/10.1080/1350...

A game of tariffs: is there demand for tariffs in Europe?

In April 2025, the United States introduced sweeping tariffs on imports from the European Union and the United Kingdom, raising transatlantic tensions and prompting debate over Europe’s response. T...

doi.org

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James Breckwoldt @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social · 4d

Could be worth watching for future economic precarity @profjanegreen.bsky.social

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James Breckwoldt @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social · 4d

Support/opposition to economic growth, technological change, innovation etc. is related to your class position.

Those who have most benefitted from change in the past are the most supportive.

Those who have most lost out from recent change (skilled manual workers) are the least supportive

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James Breckwoldt @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social · 6d

Best predictor is a person’s occupation.

People in most elite jobs much more likely to hold pro-growth views

Skilled manual workers (rather than semi-skilled or unskilled) are the most anti-growth.

This relates to how exposed these jobs have been to automation in the past

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James Breckwoldt @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social · 4d

Support/opposition to economic growth, technological change, innovation etc. is unrelated to your economic left-right beliefs or your socially liberal-conservative beliefs

👇👇👇

James Breckwoldt @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social · 6d

People’s beliefs on growth are almost always unrelated to their left-right economic or socially liberal-conservative beliefs.

Views about the benefits/downsides of growth form both internally coherent belief system but also a separate dimension of thinking that cuts across the usual boundaries.

Reposted by James Breckwoldt

James Breckwoldt @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social · 6d

People’s beliefs on growth are almost always unrelated to their left-right economic or socially liberal-conservative beliefs.

Views about the benefits/downsides of growth form both internally coherent belief system but also a separate dimension of thinking that cuts across the usual boundaries.

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Reposted by James Breckwoldt

James Breckwoldt @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social · 6d

When people hear “economic growth” what do they think
politicians mean?

Respondents given chance to type whatever they wanted and nine common topics raised.

Most frequent: something about national prosperity, but without a specific indicator mentioned.

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Reposted by James Breckwoldt

James Breckwoldt @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social · 6d

What do the public actually think about economic growth, technological change and "abundance"? I’ve done an original survey looking at just this!

There actually is an “anti-growth coalition” and “pro-growth coalition” out there, but the make up of both of these creates some very strange bedfellows…

What Do The Public Actually Think About Economic Growth, Technological Change and "Abundance"?

There's an "anti-growth coalition" and a “pro-growth coalition” out there, it’s just not necessarily the people you think it is

jamesbreckwoldt.substack.com

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James Breckwoldt @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social · 6d

Thanks, Hetan 😀

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Reposted by James Breckwoldt

Hetan Shah @hetanshah.bsky.social · 6d

Best thing I've read today. Support for growth transcends normal left/right boundaries. The occupational group that is most against growth is the skilled manual worker - perhaps due to concerns about being automated away (in a way that lower skilled service jobs aren't easy to replace with tech)

James Breckwoldt @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social · 6d

What do the public actually think about economic growth, technological change and "abundance"? I’ve done an original survey looking at just this!

There actually is an “anti-growth coalition” and “pro-growth coalition” out there, but the make up of both of these creates some very strange bedfellows…

What Do The Public Actually Think About Economic Growth, Technological Change and "Abundance"?

There's an "anti-growth coalition" and a “pro-growth coalition” out there, it’s just not necessarily the people you think it is

jamesbreckwoldt.substack.com

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Reposted by James Breckwoldt

Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 6d

All about "growth" (not being the way to counter populism, among other things) from the brilliant @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social (jamesbreckwoldt.substack.com/p/what-do-th...) including this:

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Reposted by James Breckwoldt

James Breckwoldt @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social · 6d

TLDR

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Reposted by James Breckwoldt

James Breckwoldt @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social · 6d

There certainly is a group of voters who have more negative views about growth than others, but these are not necessarily the same people Liz Truss complained about when she was prime minister.

In reality, the anti-growth coalition looks like this:

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Reposted by James Breckwoldt

James Breckwoldt @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social · 6d

Labour voters are most pro-growth group, followed closely by Conservatives.

At other end, non-voters, Reform and Green voters show most anti-growth attitudes.

This gives further evidence of how growth beliefs do not map neatly onto traditional divides.

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Reposted by James Breckwoldt

James Breckwoldt @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social · 6d

Best predictor is a person’s occupation.

People in most elite jobs much more likely to hold pro-growth views

Skilled manual workers (rather than semi-skilled or unskilled) are the most anti-growth.

This relates to how exposed these jobs have been to automation in the past

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Reposted by James Breckwoldt

James Breckwoldt @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social · 6d

Another factor analysis, but this time these eight best growth statements alongside economic and social/cultural values questions in @britishelectionstudy.com

There are 3 distinct dimensions of political beliefs. Each is consistent within its own group but clearly different from others.

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Reposted by James Breckwoldt

James Breckwoldt @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social · 6d

Factor analysis on these

All the statements loaded in the same direction, which means that people who agreed with one statement were also likely to agree with the others. People don’t just support/oppose one aspect of growth, they tend to support/oppose the rest too.

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Reposted by James Breckwoldt

Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 6d

This is just generally very good (new data, new analysis!).

Lots of fun stuff - but the thing that jumped out to me is that Labour's rhetoric on AI *actually reflects their real electorate's positivity on automation* - in contrast to Labour's imaginary electorate (skilled manual workers).

James Breckwoldt @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social · 6d

What do the public actually think about economic growth, technological change and "abundance"? I’ve done an original survey looking at just this!

There actually is an “anti-growth coalition” and “pro-growth coalition” out there, but the make up of both of these creates some very strange bedfellows…

What Do The Public Actually Think About Economic Growth, Technological Change and "Abundance"?

There's an "anti-growth coalition" and a “pro-growth coalition” out there, it’s just not necessarily the people you think it is

jamesbreckwoldt.substack.com

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