Lightnews — Scholar-powered news

Jack Russell @jackru.bsky.social · 4h

Sorry I meant that the "credible potential government" aspect is not addressed / mitigated by the Electoral Calculus question, not by you! You certainly address this later in the article, and I agree with you that the perception that they could credibly be in a position to form a government is key.

Jack Russell @jackru.bsky.social · 7h

40/40/20 must be scrapped asap.

Jack Russell @jackru.bsky.social · 8h

The second point is around assuming Reform voters, who may well be less fomrally educated, are less clued up about voting tactics. I don't think you can, should, or need to make that argument. What is generally clear is that they despise the Conservatives and wanted them booted out at the last GE.

Jack Russell @jackru.bsky.social · 8h

1) can X party win locally? (which the Electoral Calculus question addresses by asking respondents to assume they are equally likely to). But also 2) even if they do win the local seat, do they have a credible chance of forming a government? This is arguably more important and not addressed.

2

Jack Russell @jackru.bsky.social · 8h

Just read - very interesting and quite a lot to unpack! I agree broadly that the Green Party (and Lib Dems) should be pushing some variant pretty hard. Just a couple of notes of the earlier sections: firstly, I think it's crucial to think of the credibility question on two levels:

1

Jack Russell @jackru.bsky.social · 21h

Plus local Labour parties will be utterly demoralised. What has happened to the Tories will play out for them over the next three years.

1

Jack Russell @jackru.bsky.social · 21h

What will be interesting is a catastrophic set of locals in May 2026 where Labour lose London, Birmingham and Wales, and then an even bigger set of locals in 2027 where twice as many seats are up. Greens and Lib Dems will by then have proven their ability to win and tactical dynamics will reverse.

2 3

Jack Russell @jackru.bsky.social · 1d

This feels very much like the line that the Alliance Defending Freedom is keen to push here in the UK, as reported by @bradleyjane.bsky.social:

bsky.app/profile/nyti...

I very much hope Amol doesn't just parrot their talking points.

The New York Times @nytimes.com · 2d

A conservative Christian group helped end the constitutional right to an abortion in the U.S. Now, it has taken its playbook to Britain. Here's how the Alliance Defending Freedom became an unlikely conduit between MAGA Republicans and the Reform U.K. party. nyti.ms/3KLqGol

They Helped Topple Roe v. Wade. Now Their Sights Are Set on Britain.

An organization that fought abortion rights in the United States is now an unlikely conduit between MAGA Republicans and Britain’s ascendant Reform U.K. party.

nyti.ms

Jack Russell @jackru.bsky.social · 2d

It's based on the County Council result from May 2025, which resulted in a Lib Dem victory over Reform, with Labour out of the running:

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_La...

2025 Lancashire County Council election - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

5

Jack Russell @jackru.bsky.social · 2d

Thanks for an eye-opening article. I'm concerned with the level of complacency in the reactions: "this will never happen in the UK". IIRC, abortion wasn't previously a big issue for US evangelicals, but was made into a political wedge issue. I hope the lower base level of religiosity insulates us.

2 4

Jack Russell @jackru.bsky.social · 3d

You mean the Greens, right?

Jack Russell @jackru.bsky.social · 3d

Are you watching BBC?

Nick Reeves #FBPE #NAFO @nickreeves.bsky.social · 4d

Richard Tice - "Please welcome to the stage... Nathan Gill"

So much for Tice's claim to have never met Nathan Gill.

4

Jack Russell @jackru.bsky.social · 4d

NB: this is a projection, not a prediction. It makes two main assumptions:

A) that by-elections and defections will continue at the current rate until LE2026

B) that the proportional transfer of seats between parties seen so far in the 122 by-elections since May 1st will be replicated at LE2026

2

Jack Russell @jackru.bsky.social · 4d

Latest local election 2026 seat projection, taking onto account all defections and by-elections since LE2025. NB: this is a projection, not a prediction (high-level assumptions in comment below). If I was to hazard a guess at where it will be wrong, I think Green gains will be higher, Reform lower.

A table showing seat predictions for the English Local Elections in 2026.

1 2

Jack Russell @jackru.bsky.social · 4d

What a beautiful poem - thank you for sharing.

1 4

Jack Russell @jackru.bsky.social · 4d

Single transferable vote ftw then?!

1 8

Jack Russell @jackru.bsky.social · 5d

And inter-party movements due to defections / loss of whip over the same period:

CON: 138↘ ↗14 (-124)
LAB: 132↘ ↗11 (-121)
IND: 47↘ ↗244 (+197)
LOC: 34↘ ↗6 (-28)
LDM: 18↘ ↗14 (-4)
RFM: 15↘ ↗87 (+72)
GRN: 5↘ ↗16 (+11)
SNP: 3↘ ↗0 (-3)

A sankey diagram showing the flow of defections since the local elections in May 2025.

1 4

Reposted by Jack Russell

Humanists UK @humanists.uk · 6d

The humanist meaning of life with A C Grayling 🔍

28 89

Jack Russell @jackru.bsky.social · 5d

Thank you. You're not a killjoy. To be a killjoy requires firstly some joy to kill. And although I admit in the early days of Gen AI I was once in fits of giggles at the jokes it came out with, today's AI is devoid of fun, as is often the case once tech moves from curious experiment to big business.

7

Reposted by Jack Russell

Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 6d

🤦Please tell me he hasn't only just realised this....

PM Admits He Must 'Make The Case' For Benefits Of Digital ID

Keir Starmer said the government needs to emphasise the benefits of digital ID following criticism of how the policy has been sold to the public.

www.politicshome.com

16 13 90

Jack Russell @jackru.bsky.social · 6d

One point made succinctly and well.

4

Reposted by Jack Russell

Paul Murphy TD @paulmurphy.pbp.ie · 6d

"I would smear the bejaysus out of her, simply because you've nothing to lose... you've got to create a fear... in my experience, nothing works like negative campaigning."

They're really openly saying the quiet part out loud now aren't they...🤔

16 65 110

Jack Russell @jackru.bsky.social · 6d

Conservatives get a +3% bounce, translating into 6th position in the MRP 🤯

2

Jack Russell @jackru.bsky.social · 6d

This assumes "others" are all tiny and contribute a vanishingly small amount to the sum-of-squares.

1

Jack Russell @jackru.bsky.social · 6d

Can you apply the effective party metric to seat shares (or councillor shares) as opposed to vote share? If so, this number tallies well with the current effective number of parties across local government (5.2). And my simple projection see this rising to 6.4 after LE2026:

A projection of local councillor totals following the Local Elections in England in 2026.

1 1