Iain Mansfield
@igmansfield.bsky.social
Current affairs, politics, education and miscellany. All views my own.
Substack at edrith.co.uk
Substack at edrith.co.uk
Reposted by Iain Mansfield
Reform is clearly ahead right now - but Labour have more pathways to victory: more people who’ll vote for them tactically, more potential coalition partners and more opportunity to make the weather - and to determine the timing of the next election.
open.substack.com/pub/edrith/p...
open.substack.com/pub/edrith/p...
Why [Party] will win the next general election
Five scenarios of varying plausibility
open.substack.com
November 29, 2025 at 10:41 AM
Reform is clearly ahead right now - but Labour have more pathways to victory: more people who’ll vote for them tactically, more potential coalition partners and more opportunity to make the weather - and to determine the timing of the next election.
open.substack.com/pub/edrith/p...
open.substack.com/pub/edrith/p...
Reform is clearly ahead right now - but Labour have more pathways to victory: more people who’ll vote for them tactically, more potential coalition partners and more opportunity to make the weather - and to determine the timing of the next election.
open.substack.com/pub/edrith/p...
open.substack.com/pub/edrith/p...
Why [Party] will win the next general election
Five scenarios of varying plausibility
open.substack.com
November 29, 2025 at 10:41 AM
Reform is clearly ahead right now - but Labour have more pathways to victory: more people who’ll vote for them tactically, more potential coalition partners and more opportunity to make the weather - and to determine the timing of the next election.
open.substack.com/pub/edrith/p...
open.substack.com/pub/edrith/p...
Reposted by Iain Mansfield
Bored of the Budget?
Let's think about which party will win the next general election.
What we know, what we don't know - and a pathway for each party to come out on top.
www.edrith.co.uk/p/why-party-...
Let's think about which party will win the next general election.
What we know, what we don't know - and a pathway for each party to come out on top.
www.edrith.co.uk/p/why-party-...
Why [Party] will win the next general election
Five scenarios of varying plausibility
www.edrith.co.uk
November 28, 2025 at 7:18 AM
Bored of the Budget?
Let's think about which party will win the next general election.
What we know, what we don't know - and a pathway for each party to come out on top.
www.edrith.co.uk/p/why-party-...
Let's think about which party will win the next general election.
What we know, what we don't know - and a pathway for each party to come out on top.
www.edrith.co.uk/p/why-party-...
Bored of the Budget?
Let's think about which party will win the next general election.
What we know, what we don't know - and a pathway for each party to come out on top.
www.edrith.co.uk/p/why-party-...
Let's think about which party will win the next general election.
What we know, what we don't know - and a pathway for each party to come out on top.
www.edrith.co.uk/p/why-party-...
Why [Party] will win the next general election
Five scenarios of varying plausibility
www.edrith.co.uk
November 28, 2025 at 7:18 AM
Bored of the Budget?
Let's think about which party will win the next general election.
What we know, what we don't know - and a pathway for each party to come out on top.
www.edrith.co.uk/p/why-party-...
Let's think about which party will win the next general election.
What we know, what we don't know - and a pathway for each party to come out on top.
www.edrith.co.uk/p/why-party-...
Reposted by Iain Mansfield
Absolutely disagree with stopping state pension for wealthiest and means-testing. Doesn’t cost much and would be the road to reducing year after year who is eligible. Keep universal benefits universal. No other wealthy country means tests state pensions.
November 27, 2025 at 10:42 PM
Absolutely disagree with stopping state pension for wealthiest and means-testing. Doesn’t cost much and would be the road to reducing year after year who is eligible. Keep universal benefits universal. No other wealthy country means tests state pensions.
Reposted by Iain Mansfield
This is mad.
Obviously it was a massive error.
But Richard Hughes resigning would be a huge over-response.
on.ft.com/485r0Yd OBR chair under pressure over early release of Budget analysis
Obviously it was a massive error.
But Richard Hughes resigning would be a huge over-response.
on.ft.com/485r0Yd OBR chair under pressure over early release of Budget analysis
OBR chair under pressure over early release of Budget analysis
Senior Labour MP calls for UK’s fiscal watchdog chair Richard Hughes to ‘consider his position’
on.ft.com
November 27, 2025 at 5:52 PM
This is mad.
Obviously it was a massive error.
But Richard Hughes resigning would be a huge over-response.
on.ft.com/485r0Yd OBR chair under pressure over early release of Budget analysis
Obviously it was a massive error.
But Richard Hughes resigning would be a huge over-response.
on.ft.com/485r0Yd OBR chair under pressure over early release of Budget analysis
Reposted by Iain Mansfield
I'm constantly shocked (but not surprised) by how little we discuss the additional financial burden placed on young people by the Clegg-Cameron student loan regime.
@rmcunliffe.bsky.social is one of the few journalists who brings it up continuously - once again in the wake of the budget 👇
@rmcunliffe.bsky.social is one of the few journalists who brings it up continuously - once again in the wake of the budget 👇
Rachel Reeves hits young graduates with a double stealth tax
The Chancellor plans to raise as much money from freezing loan repayment thresholds as from the mansion tax
www.newstatesman.com
November 27, 2025 at 1:04 PM
I'm constantly shocked (but not surprised) by how little we discuss the additional financial burden placed on young people by the Clegg-Cameron student loan regime.
@rmcunliffe.bsky.social is one of the few journalists who brings it up continuously - once again in the wake of the budget 👇
@rmcunliffe.bsky.social is one of the few journalists who brings it up continuously - once again in the wake of the budget 👇
"This continues to be a government whose rhetoric writes cheques that its actions cannot cash."
Brilliant, brutal piece by @stephenkb.bsky.social.
And every word of it true.
www.ft.com/content/e1b1...
Brilliant, brutal piece by @stephenkb.bsky.social.
And every word of it true.
www.ft.com/content/e1b1...
Rachel Reeves doubles down on wishful thinking
A government that can’t make tough choices now is unlikely to do so on the eve of an election
www.ft.com
November 27, 2025 at 9:27 AM
"This continues to be a government whose rhetoric writes cheques that its actions cannot cash."
Brilliant, brutal piece by @stephenkb.bsky.social.
And every word of it true.
www.ft.com/content/e1b1...
Brilliant, brutal piece by @stephenkb.bsky.social.
And every word of it true.
www.ft.com/content/e1b1...
Reposted by Iain Mansfield
The idea that increasing taxes helps cut the deficit is for the birds.
Historically, there's no correlation - it usually goes hand in hand with increased borrowing instead.
As per today's Budget: £26 bn of tax rises, and debt/GDP goes up 2pp, to 96%.
www.edrith.co.uk/p/does-incre...
Historically, there's no correlation - it usually goes hand in hand with increased borrowing instead.
As per today's Budget: £26 bn of tax rises, and debt/GDP goes up 2pp, to 96%.
www.edrith.co.uk/p/does-incre...
November 26, 2025 at 8:34 PM
The idea that increasing taxes helps cut the deficit is for the birds.
Historically, there's no correlation - it usually goes hand in hand with increased borrowing instead.
As per today's Budget: £26 bn of tax rises, and debt/GDP goes up 2pp, to 96%.
www.edrith.co.uk/p/does-incre...
Historically, there's no correlation - it usually goes hand in hand with increased borrowing instead.
As per today's Budget: £26 bn of tax rises, and debt/GDP goes up 2pp, to 96%.
www.edrith.co.uk/p/does-incre...
The idea that increasing taxes helps cut the deficit is for the birds.
Historically, there's no correlation - it usually goes hand in hand with increased borrowing instead.
As per today's Budget: £26 bn of tax rises, and debt/GDP goes up 2pp, to 96%.
www.edrith.co.uk/p/does-incre...
Historically, there's no correlation - it usually goes hand in hand with increased borrowing instead.
As per today's Budget: £26 bn of tax rises, and debt/GDP goes up 2pp, to 96%.
www.edrith.co.uk/p/does-incre...
November 26, 2025 at 8:34 PM
The idea that increasing taxes helps cut the deficit is for the birds.
Historically, there's no correlation - it usually goes hand in hand with increased borrowing instead.
As per today's Budget: £26 bn of tax rises, and debt/GDP goes up 2pp, to 96%.
www.edrith.co.uk/p/does-incre...
Historically, there's no correlation - it usually goes hand in hand with increased borrowing instead.
As per today's Budget: £26 bn of tax rises, and debt/GDP goes up 2pp, to 96%.
www.edrith.co.uk/p/does-incre...
Reposted by Iain Mansfield
While I was offline I reviewed Baroness Hale of Richmond's newest book. It's actually very good! I'm going soft. Free link here @ www.thetimes.com/article/6dd6...
Return of the Spider Woman: Lady Hale tours Britain’s courts
With the Law on Our Side is a pleasingly old-fashioned look at our legal system by the former president of the Supreme Court
www.thetimes.com
November 26, 2025 at 6:09 PM
While I was offline I reviewed Baroness Hale of Richmond's newest book. It's actually very good! I'm going soft. Free link here @ www.thetimes.com/article/6dd6...
Frustrated by repeated delays, the Treasury has thrown down the gauntlet to Phillipson.
Sort out SEND - or see your planned increase in school funding become a 1.7% per pupil cut.
Big upping of the stakes for the promised SEND White Paper.
Sort out SEND - or see your planned increase in school funding become a 1.7% per pupil cut.
Big upping of the stakes for the promised SEND White Paper.
November 26, 2025 at 4:25 PM
Frustrated by repeated delays, the Treasury has thrown down the gauntlet to Phillipson.
Sort out SEND - or see your planned increase in school funding become a 1.7% per pupil cut.
Big upping of the stakes for the promised SEND White Paper.
Sort out SEND - or see your planned increase in school funding become a 1.7% per pupil cut.
Big upping of the stakes for the promised SEND White Paper.
Reposted by Iain Mansfield
having gone to university as the last cohort of the 3k/year system never fails to give me a brief taste of that "last chopper out of Saigon" feeling boomers and, to an extent, Gen Xers have been getting for most of the past fifteen years or so
Student loan repayment thresholds frozen for a further three years.
More debt burden falling on graduates.
And even more reason to cut university places by 20-30%.
More debt burden falling on graduates.
And even more reason to cut university places by 20-30%.
November 26, 2025 at 3:35 PM
having gone to university as the last cohort of the 3k/year system never fails to give me a brief taste of that "last chopper out of Saigon" feeling boomers and, to an extent, Gen Xers have been getting for most of the past fifteen years or so
Reposted by Iain Mansfield
The Government has adjusted the International Student Levy from a 6% charge to a flat rate of £925.
A flat rate was first called for by Policy Exchange in July - as it avoids disproportionately penalising top universities and STEM courses.
Rare spot of good news in the Budget.
A flat rate was first called for by Policy Exchange in July - as it avoids disproportionately penalising top universities and STEM courses.
Rare spot of good news in the Budget.
November 26, 2025 at 2:03 PM
The Government has adjusted the International Student Levy from a 6% charge to a flat rate of £925.
A flat rate was first called for by Policy Exchange in July - as it avoids disproportionately penalising top universities and STEM courses.
Rare spot of good news in the Budget.
A flat rate was first called for by Policy Exchange in July - as it avoids disproportionately penalising top universities and STEM courses.
Rare spot of good news in the Budget.
The sum total of Labour’s fiscal choices has been to expand the state.
Over the last ten years, on average state spending was 41.6% of GDP. That has now risen to 44-45%…but so far, without much to show for it.
Budget reaction from @archiehall.bsky.social.
notes.archie-hall.com/p/fifteen-th...
Over the last ten years, on average state spending was 41.6% of GDP. That has now risen to 44-45%…but so far, without much to show for it.
Budget reaction from @archiehall.bsky.social.
notes.archie-hall.com/p/fifteen-th...
Fifteen thoughts on the Budget
A quick verdict on Reeves Round II, plus an utterly wild OBR leak
notes.archie-hall.com
November 26, 2025 at 3:19 PM
The sum total of Labour’s fiscal choices has been to expand the state.
Over the last ten years, on average state spending was 41.6% of GDP. That has now risen to 44-45%…but so far, without much to show for it.
Budget reaction from @archiehall.bsky.social.
notes.archie-hall.com/p/fifteen-th...
Over the last ten years, on average state spending was 41.6% of GDP. That has now risen to 44-45%…but so far, without much to show for it.
Budget reaction from @archiehall.bsky.social.
notes.archie-hall.com/p/fifteen-th...
Reposted by Iain Mansfield
My quick verdict on the Budget, now up.
"Fifteen thoughts on the Budget"
open.substack.com/pub/archieh...
"Fifteen thoughts on the Budget"
open.substack.com/pub/archieh...
November 26, 2025 at 3:09 PM
My quick verdict on the Budget, now up.
"Fifteen thoughts on the Budget"
open.substack.com/pub/archieh...
"Fifteen thoughts on the Budget"
open.substack.com/pub/archieh...
Reposted by Iain Mansfield
The government can stick to this plan, or the government can get re-elected. Unlikely it can do both. Therefore either the government has a death wish or the 27-29 figures are yet another budgetary fairy tale. Remember when this government promised to be serious and not to duck the hard choices?
The government’s spending plans are “25-27: spending increases, 27-29: paaaain” which, uh…the election is 2028-9!
November 26, 2025 at 3:04 PM
The government can stick to this plan, or the government can get re-elected. Unlikely it can do both. Therefore either the government has a death wish or the 27-29 figures are yet another budgetary fairy tale. Remember when this government promised to be serious and not to duck the hard choices?
Reposted by Iain Mansfield
Details of this now out - and it does indeed look like very good news - Government has listened to concerns and I don't think they really meant add £25k to cost of a new home, via massive taxes on the rubble and topsoil which is removed and then used to fill a former quarry!
November 26, 2025 at 2:32 PM
Details of this now out - and it does indeed look like very good news - Government has listened to concerns and I don't think they really meant add £25k to cost of a new home, via massive taxes on the rubble and topsoil which is removed and then used to fill a former quarry!
Reposted by Iain Mansfield
Yup. Foreign students pay highly marketised rates. Visa mills are cheap. Imperial College is not.
A flat rate levy on targets the impact on low quality 'visa mills' that use cheap courses as a back-door to long-term settlement.
While minimising the impact on our ability to recruit the brightest and the best.
Full report here:
policyexchange.org.uk/publication/...
While minimising the impact on our ability to recruit the brightest and the best.
Full report here:
policyexchange.org.uk/publication/...
Education Not Immigration - Policy Exchange
Download Publication Online Reader This new paper by Policy Exchange for the first time outlines the full scale of international student migration to the UK. It argues British universities must return...
policyexchange.org.uk
November 26, 2025 at 2:06 PM
Yup. Foreign students pay highly marketised rates. Visa mills are cheap. Imperial College is not.
The Government has adjusted the International Student Levy from a 6% charge to a flat rate of £925.
A flat rate was first called for by Policy Exchange in July - as it avoids disproportionately penalising top universities and STEM courses.
Rare spot of good news in the Budget.
A flat rate was first called for by Policy Exchange in July - as it avoids disproportionately penalising top universities and STEM courses.
Rare spot of good news in the Budget.
November 26, 2025 at 2:03 PM
The Government has adjusted the International Student Levy from a 6% charge to a flat rate of £925.
A flat rate was first called for by Policy Exchange in July - as it avoids disproportionately penalising top universities and STEM courses.
Rare spot of good news in the Budget.
A flat rate was first called for by Policy Exchange in July - as it avoids disproportionately penalising top universities and STEM courses.
Rare spot of good news in the Budget.
Reposted by Iain Mansfield
Rachel Reeves can count herself (at least a bit) lucky. OBR productivity downgrade would have knocked £16 billion off tax receipts. But she was saved by £32 billion of *extra* receipts from higher inflation and a shift to more tax-rich growth (lower profits, higher wages).
November 26, 2025 at 12:40 PM
Rachel Reeves can count herself (at least a bit) lucky. OBR productivity downgrade would have knocked £16 billion off tax receipts. But she was saved by £32 billion of *extra* receipts from higher inflation and a shift to more tax-rich growth (lower profits, higher wages).
Reposted by Iain Mansfield
Would love some in-depth numbers on what the majority of 20-30 somethings basically paying a 9% higher marginal tax rate has actually done to economic behaviour. Feels very under-discussed bsky.app/profile/igma...
Student loan repayment thresholds frozen for a further three years.
More debt burden falling on graduates.
And even more reason to cut university places by 20-30%.
More debt burden falling on graduates.
And even more reason to cut university places by 20-30%.
November 26, 2025 at 1:00 PM
Would love some in-depth numbers on what the majority of 20-30 somethings basically paying a 9% higher marginal tax rate has actually done to economic behaviour. Feels very under-discussed bsky.app/profile/igma...
SEND Budgets are out of control.
Total spending should be reset at 2015 levels.
Statutory obligations removed.
And councils required to prioritise support and live within their means.
Total spending should be reset at 2015 levels.
Statutory obligations removed.
And councils required to prioritise support and live within their means.
November 26, 2025 at 1:04 PM
SEND Budgets are out of control.
Total spending should be reset at 2015 levels.
Statutory obligations removed.
And councils required to prioritise support and live within their means.
Total spending should be reset at 2015 levels.
Statutory obligations removed.
And councils required to prioritise support and live within their means.
Reposted by Iain Mansfield
aaAAAAAAAHHHH [AAAAAHHHHHHHH]
Student loan repayment thresholds frozen for a further three years.
More debt burden falling on graduates.
And even more reason to cut university places by 20-30%.
More debt burden falling on graduates.
And even more reason to cut university places by 20-30%.
November 26, 2025 at 12:57 PM
aaAAAAAAAHHHH [AAAAAHHHHHHHH]
Student loan repayment thresholds frozen for a further three years.
More debt burden falling on graduates.
And even more reason to cut university places by 20-30%.
More debt burden falling on graduates.
And even more reason to cut university places by 20-30%.
November 26, 2025 at 12:55 PM
Student loan repayment thresholds frozen for a further three years.
More debt burden falling on graduates.
And even more reason to cut university places by 20-30%.
More debt burden falling on graduates.
And even more reason to cut university places by 20-30%.