Iain Mansfield
@igmansfield.bsky.social
Current affairs, politics, education and miscellany. All views my own.
Substack at edrith.co.uk
Substack at edrith.co.uk
The idea that increasing taxes helps cut the deficit is for the birds.
Historically, there's no correlation - it usually goes hand in hand with increased borrowing instead.
As per today's Budget: £26 bn of tax rises, and debt/GDP goes up 2pp, to 96%.
www.edrith.co.uk/p/does-incre...
Historically, there's no correlation - it usually goes hand in hand with increased borrowing instead.
As per today's Budget: £26 bn of tax rises, and debt/GDP goes up 2pp, to 96%.
www.edrith.co.uk/p/does-incre...
November 26, 2025 at 8:34 PM
The idea that increasing taxes helps cut the deficit is for the birds.
Historically, there's no correlation - it usually goes hand in hand with increased borrowing instead.
As per today's Budget: £26 bn of tax rises, and debt/GDP goes up 2pp, to 96%.
www.edrith.co.uk/p/does-incre...
Historically, there's no correlation - it usually goes hand in hand with increased borrowing instead.
As per today's Budget: £26 bn of tax rises, and debt/GDP goes up 2pp, to 96%.
www.edrith.co.uk/p/does-incre...
SEND spending is utterly out of control - the unintended consequence of the Children and Families Act 2014.
But any meaningful reform will mean taking on powerful lobbies - and parents who only want the best for their children.
After the welfare rebellion, can it be done?
But any meaningful reform will mean taking on powerful lobbies - and parents who only want the best for their children.
After the welfare rebellion, can it be done?
November 26, 2025 at 4:25 PM
SEND spending is utterly out of control - the unintended consequence of the Children and Families Act 2014.
But any meaningful reform will mean taking on powerful lobbies - and parents who only want the best for their children.
After the welfare rebellion, can it be done?
But any meaningful reform will mean taking on powerful lobbies - and parents who only want the best for their children.
After the welfare rebellion, can it be done?
Frustrated by repeated delays, the Treasury has thrown down the gauntlet to Phillipson.
Sort out SEND - or see your planned increase in school funding become a 1.7% per pupil cut.
Big upping of the stakes for the promised SEND White Paper.
Sort out SEND - or see your planned increase in school funding become a 1.7% per pupil cut.
Big upping of the stakes for the promised SEND White Paper.
November 26, 2025 at 4:25 PM
Frustrated by repeated delays, the Treasury has thrown down the gauntlet to Phillipson.
Sort out SEND - or see your planned increase in school funding become a 1.7% per pupil cut.
Big upping of the stakes for the promised SEND White Paper.
Sort out SEND - or see your planned increase in school funding become a 1.7% per pupil cut.
Big upping of the stakes for the promised SEND White Paper.
The Government has adjusted the International Student Levy from a 6% charge to a flat rate of £925.
A flat rate was first called for by Policy Exchange in July - as it avoids disproportionately penalising top universities and STEM courses.
Rare spot of good news in the Budget.
A flat rate was first called for by Policy Exchange in July - as it avoids disproportionately penalising top universities and STEM courses.
Rare spot of good news in the Budget.
November 26, 2025 at 2:03 PM
The Government has adjusted the International Student Levy from a 6% charge to a flat rate of £925.
A flat rate was first called for by Policy Exchange in July - as it avoids disproportionately penalising top universities and STEM courses.
Rare spot of good news in the Budget.
A flat rate was first called for by Policy Exchange in July - as it avoids disproportionately penalising top universities and STEM courses.
Rare spot of good news in the Budget.
SEND Budgets are out of control.
Total spending should be reset at 2015 levels.
Statutory obligations removed.
And councils required to prioritise support and live within their means.
Total spending should be reset at 2015 levels.
Statutory obligations removed.
And councils required to prioritise support and live within their means.
November 26, 2025 at 1:04 PM
SEND Budgets are out of control.
Total spending should be reset at 2015 levels.
Statutory obligations removed.
And councils required to prioritise support and live within their means.
Total spending should be reset at 2015 levels.
Statutory obligations removed.
And councils required to prioritise support and live within their means.
Student loan repayment thresholds frozen for a further three years.
More debt burden falling on graduates.
And even more reason to cut university places by 20-30%.
More debt burden falling on graduates.
And even more reason to cut university places by 20-30%.
November 26, 2025 at 12:55 PM
Student loan repayment thresholds frozen for a further three years.
More debt burden falling on graduates.
And even more reason to cut university places by 20-30%.
More debt burden falling on graduates.
And even more reason to cut university places by 20-30%.
And here are the number of new people drawn into each of the tax bands:
November 26, 2025 at 12:48 PM
And here are the number of new people drawn into each of the tax bands:
Stunning figures here.
Without the threshold freezes this decade, the basic threshold would by over £17,000 and the higher rate threshold over £70,000(!!!) in 2030.
A simply colossal impact of fiscal drag.
Without the threshold freezes this decade, the basic threshold would by over £17,000 and the higher rate threshold over £70,000(!!!) in 2030.
A simply colossal impact of fiscal drag.
November 26, 2025 at 12:46 PM
Stunning figures here.
Without the threshold freezes this decade, the basic threshold would by over £17,000 and the higher rate threshold over £70,000(!!!) in 2030.
A simply colossal impact of fiscal drag.
Without the threshold freezes this decade, the basic threshold would by over £17,000 and the higher rate threshold over £70,000(!!!) in 2030.
A simply colossal impact of fiscal drag.
Impact of Employment Rights Bill not included in the OBR's forecast.
Major omission - meaning we can expect the growth and employment forecasts to deteriorate further.
Wiping out Chancellor's headroom and increasing the chance of the need to return next year for more tax rises.
Major omission - meaning we can expect the growth and employment forecasts to deteriorate further.
Wiping out Chancellor's headroom and increasing the chance of the need to return next year for more tax rises.
November 26, 2025 at 12:31 PM
Impact of Employment Rights Bill not included in the OBR's forecast.
Major omission - meaning we can expect the growth and employment forecasts to deteriorate further.
Wiping out Chancellor's headroom and increasing the chance of the need to return next year for more tax rises.
Major omission - meaning we can expect the growth and employment forecasts to deteriorate further.
Wiping out Chancellor's headroom and increasing the chance of the need to return next year for more tax rises.
Debt projection 2 percentage points up since March!
"Debt rises as a share of GDP from 95 per cent of GDP this year and ends the decade at 96 per cent of GDP, which is 2 percentage points higher than projected in March and twice the debt level of the average advanced economy."
"Debt rises as a share of GDP from 95 per cent of GDP this year and ends the decade at 96 per cent of GDP, which is 2 percentage points higher than projected in March and twice the debt level of the average advanced economy."
November 26, 2025 at 12:09 PM
Debt projection 2 percentage points up since March!
"Debt rises as a share of GDP from 95 per cent of GDP this year and ends the decade at 96 per cent of GDP, which is 2 percentage points higher than projected in March and twice the debt level of the average advanced economy."
"Debt rises as a share of GDP from 95 per cent of GDP this year and ends the decade at 96 per cent of GDP, which is 2 percentage points higher than projected in March and twice the debt level of the average advanced economy."
Many people here appear to genuinely believe that stopping the Channel boats is intrinsically difficult - like improving NHS productivity.
It's not - and here is how you do it.
With every small boat arrival sent there automatically, without exception.
conservativehome.com/2025/11/25/a...
It's not - and here is how you do it.
With every small boat arrival sent there automatically, without exception.
conservativehome.com/2025/11/25/a...
November 25, 2025 at 12:25 PM
Many people here appear to genuinely believe that stopping the Channel boats is intrinsically difficult - like improving NHS productivity.
It's not - and here is how you do it.
With every small boat arrival sent there automatically, without exception.
conservativehome.com/2025/11/25/a...
It's not - and here is how you do it.
With every small boat arrival sent there automatically, without exception.
conservativehome.com/2025/11/25/a...
Of course, it could just - as we also recommend - exempt top universities from the levy entirely. This would mean foregoing c. 1/4 of the sum raised by the levy.
There are various metrics they could use to determine the exemption - which give pretty similar results.
There are various metrics they could use to determine the exemption - which give pretty similar results.
November 24, 2025 at 11:59 AM
Of course, it could just - as we also recommend - exempt top universities from the levy entirely. This would mean foregoing c. 1/4 of the sum raised by the levy.
There are various metrics they could use to determine the exemption - which give pretty similar results.
There are various metrics they could use to determine the exemption - which give pretty similar results.
A 6% levy means the levy paid for a STEM student at top university will be 3-4 times higher than that of a student on a cheap taught masters in management.
On average, a top 200 global university would pay £1400 per student, whereas unis ranked 1000 or lower would pay £750.
On average, a top 200 global university would pay £1400 per student, whereas unis ranked 1000 or lower would pay £750.
November 24, 2025 at 11:59 AM
A 6% levy means the levy paid for a STEM student at top university will be 3-4 times higher than that of a student on a cheap taught masters in management.
On average, a top 200 global university would pay £1400 per student, whereas unis ranked 1000 or lower would pay £750.
On average, a top 200 global university would pay £1400 per student, whereas unis ranked 1000 or lower would pay £750.
From biblical Cities of Refuge to the Liberty of the Savoy; from Mediaeval church sanctuary to modern embassies, we continue to create places when individuals can take refuge from pursuing justice.
Why do we keep doing this?
open.substack.com/pub/edrith/p...
Why do we keep doing this?
open.substack.com/pub/edrith/p...
November 22, 2025 at 11:10 AM
From biblical Cities of Refuge to the Liberty of the Savoy; from Mediaeval church sanctuary to modern embassies, we continue to create places when individuals can take refuge from pursuing justice.
Why do we keep doing this?
open.substack.com/pub/edrith/p...
Why do we keep doing this?
open.substack.com/pub/edrith/p...
Just spotted my Budget piece made it on to yesterday's FT Alphaville's 'Further Reading' list.
Why Reeves has no good choices left - and why politicians need to go big or go home.
Why Reeves has no good choices left - and why politicians need to go big or go home.
November 19, 2025 at 8:24 PM
Just spotted my Budget piece made it on to yesterday's FT Alphaville's 'Further Reading' list.
Why Reeves has no good choices left - and why politicians need to go big or go home.
Why Reeves has no good choices left - and why politicians need to go big or go home.
Excellent piece on how to balance the budget and put growth first by @tejparikh.ft.com
Breaking the triple lock, freezing allowances and more ambition on welfare.
Plus tax simplification, planning reform and delaying the 'day-one' workers' rights reforms.
www.ft.com/content/fdbc...
Breaking the triple lock, freezing allowances and more ambition on welfare.
Plus tax simplification, planning reform and delaying the 'day-one' workers' rights reforms.
www.ft.com/content/fdbc...
November 17, 2025 at 11:04 AM
Excellent piece on how to balance the budget and put growth first by @tejparikh.ft.com
Breaking the triple lock, freezing allowances and more ambition on welfare.
Plus tax simplification, planning reform and delaying the 'day-one' workers' rights reforms.
www.ft.com/content/fdbc...
Breaking the triple lock, freezing allowances and more ambition on welfare.
Plus tax simplification, planning reform and delaying the 'day-one' workers' rights reforms.
www.ft.com/content/fdbc...
Rachel Reeves has no good choices left.
After this week's income tax u-turn, is there any way she can salvage the Budget?
www.edrith.co.uk/p/reeves-in-...
After this week's income tax u-turn, is there any way she can salvage the Budget?
www.edrith.co.uk/p/reeves-in-...
November 15, 2025 at 9:18 AM
Rachel Reeves has no good choices left.
After this week's income tax u-turn, is there any way she can salvage the Budget?
www.edrith.co.uk/p/reeves-in-...
After this week's income tax u-turn, is there any way she can salvage the Budget?
www.edrith.co.uk/p/reeves-in-...
The decline of the Office of National Statistics is a tragedy.
We spend £8 billion annually on academic research through UKRI - much of it highly politicised. Much better to take half the £122m we spend via the ESRC and give it to the ONS.
Reliable official statistics are vital.
We spend £8 billion annually on academic research through UKRI - much of it highly politicised. Much better to take half the £122m we spend via the ESRC and give it to the ONS.
Reliable official statistics are vital.
November 12, 2025 at 10:24 PM
The decline of the Office of National Statistics is a tragedy.
We spend £8 billion annually on academic research through UKRI - much of it highly politicised. Much better to take half the £122m we spend via the ESRC and give it to the ONS.
Reliable official statistics are vital.
We spend £8 billion annually on academic research through UKRI - much of it highly politicised. Much better to take half the £122m we spend via the ESRC and give it to the ONS.
Reliable official statistics are vital.
2. Is the Green rise real?
If we look at council by-elections, Lib Dem and Reform are utterly domination.
That remains true if you look only at the last two months.
Where are these putatitive Green voters? Will they really come through at the same level as the Lib Dems?
If we look at council by-elections, Lib Dem and Reform are utterly domination.
That remains true if you look only at the last two months.
Where are these putatitive Green voters? Will they really come through at the same level as the Lib Dems?
November 8, 2025 at 12:00 PM
2. Is the Green rise real?
If we look at council by-elections, Lib Dem and Reform are utterly domination.
That remains true if you look only at the last two months.
Where are these putatitive Green voters? Will they really come through at the same level as the Lib Dems?
If we look at council by-elections, Lib Dem and Reform are utterly domination.
That remains true if you look only at the last two months.
Where are these putatitive Green voters? Will they really come through at the same level as the Lib Dems?
Polls are bouncing all over the place right now.
A 🧵.
Some things I'm confident of:
- Reform are on 30% +/- 2.
- Labour remain slightly ahead of the Tories.
- Labour has lost a lot of votes to the left.
- In England, the sum of the right bloc and left bloc are pretty even.
A 🧵.
Some things I'm confident of:
- Reform are on 30% +/- 2.
- Labour remain slightly ahead of the Tories.
- Labour has lost a lot of votes to the left.
- In England, the sum of the right bloc and left bloc are pretty even.
November 8, 2025 at 12:00 PM
Polls are bouncing all over the place right now.
A 🧵.
Some things I'm confident of:
- Reform are on 30% +/- 2.
- Labour remain slightly ahead of the Tories.
- Labour has lost a lot of votes to the left.
- In England, the sum of the right bloc and left bloc are pretty even.
A 🧵.
Some things I'm confident of:
- Reform are on 30% +/- 2.
- Labour remain slightly ahead of the Tories.
- Labour has lost a lot of votes to the left.
- In England, the sum of the right bloc and left bloc are pretty even.
This has changed though since our time.
About 9 in 10 schools these days do British colonisation in Africa/Asia/Caribbean during Key Stage 3.
About 9 in 10 schools these days do British colonisation in Africa/Asia/Caribbean during Key Stage 3.
November 7, 2025 at 1:55 PM
This has changed though since our time.
About 9 in 10 schools these days do British colonisation in Africa/Asia/Caribbean during Key Stage 3.
About 9 in 10 schools these days do British colonisation in Africa/Asia/Caribbean during Key Stage 3.
➡️262 prisoners released in error last year.
➡️1 in 8 prisoners are foreigners.
We can have a headline like this at least once a fortnight, indefinitely.
This is, to put it mildly, a problem for the government.
➡️1 in 8 prisoners are foreigners.
We can have a headline like this at least once a fortnight, indefinitely.
This is, to put it mildly, a problem for the government.
November 5, 2025 at 12:57 PM
➡️262 prisoners released in error last year.
➡️1 in 8 prisoners are foreigners.
We can have a headline like this at least once a fortnight, indefinitely.
This is, to put it mildly, a problem for the government.
➡️1 in 8 prisoners are foreigners.
We can have a headline like this at least once a fortnight, indefinitely.
This is, to put it mildly, a problem for the government.
Beware the man with one poll!
Excluding the national parties, Electoral Calculus has the Right bloc at 48% and the Left at 44%.
Politico Poll of Polls has the Right at 47% and the Left at 45%.
(Including the nats as Sam does, that puts you on 48/48 and 47/48 respectively - either way, v. close).
Excluding the national parties, Electoral Calculus has the Right bloc at 48% and the Left at 44%.
Politico Poll of Polls has the Right at 47% and the Left at 45%.
(Including the nats as Sam does, that puts you on 48/48 and 47/48 respectively - either way, v. close).
November 4, 2025 at 10:52 AM
Beware the man with one poll!
Excluding the national parties, Electoral Calculus has the Right bloc at 48% and the Left at 44%.
Politico Poll of Polls has the Right at 47% and the Left at 45%.
(Including the nats as Sam does, that puts you on 48/48 and 47/48 respectively - either way, v. close).
Excluding the national parties, Electoral Calculus has the Right bloc at 48% and the Left at 44%.
Politico Poll of Polls has the Right at 47% and the Left at 45%.
(Including the nats as Sam does, that puts you on 48/48 and 47/48 respectively - either way, v. close).
This was not how I imagined the Conservatives drawing level with Labour in the opinion polls was going to look like.
November 3, 2025 at 10:33 PM
This was not how I imagined the Conservatives drawing level with Labour in the opinion polls was going to look like.
And delighted to see that the Higher Education (Freedom of Speech Act) played a key role in securing Professor Murphy's apology and guarantee for future academic freedom.
November 3, 2025 at 12:09 PM
And delighted to see that the Higher Education (Freedom of Speech Act) played a key role in securing Professor Murphy's apology and guarantee for future academic freedom.