Lightnews — Scholar-powered news

Half-Brick McCurdy @halfbrickmccurdy.bsky.social · 1h

Handicapped by the failure of American analysts to seriously consider the centrality of bullshit to America's position. Less Clausewitz, more Harry G. Frankfurt needed.

Half-Brick McCurdy @halfbrickmccurdy.bsky.social · 5h

Oh aye, still on the hook for loans already made, but my back of a cig packet calculations from a few months back, indicates the remaining schemes see government spending more on new subsidised mortgages now than before the old scheme was switched off; fewer borrowers getting bigger subsidies.

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Half-Brick McCurdy @halfbrickmccurdy.bsky.social · 7h

Petrol station near me has a car wash. A8 accession migration saw some Eastern Europeans with buckets and shammies set up a rival hand valet service across the road. The shammies have since given way to an IMO Car wash (was a multinational, now a private equity plaything); linear progress it's not.

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Half-Brick McCurdy @halfbrickmccurdy.bsky.social · 7h

And apologies, if being pedantic, but where you say "A preferential mortgage program, for example, created a bubble in the construction industry and is still costing the budget trillions despite having ended" see attached

Half-Brick McCurdy @halfbrickmccurdy.bsky.social · Jun 4

1/7 Rumours of the subsidised Russian mortgage’s demise have been greatly exaggerated. After becoming a significant cost (‪@markgaleotti.bsky.social‬ recently noted Russia spends more on subsidised mortgages than police salaries), their availability was significantly reduced in July 2024.

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Half-Brick McCurdy @halfbrickmccurdy.bsky.social · 7h

Yip. And there's presumably only so much a bank can hold on its balance sheet (especially given its cost of funds appears to be higher than OFZ yields). And then there's the crowding out effect.

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Reposted by Half-Brick McCurdy

Jennifer Keith @jkcreative8.bsky.social · 22h

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Half-Brick McCurdy @halfbrickmccurdy.bsky.social · 10h

Presumably then, besides the national accounts, this will show up in the banks' own accounts, most obviously Sberbank's (e.g. see attached)?

Half-Brick McCurdy @halfbrickmccurdy.bsky.social · Apr 29

1/2 Sberbank's 2024 annual results record a noticeable increase in lending to government; federal bonds grew from 3% to 9% of it's asset portfolio. In theory this should produce a "safer" bank (as government bonds attract no/minimal risk weights when calculating capital adequacy).

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Half-Brick McCurdy @halfbrickmccurdy.bsky.social · 21h

That too

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Half-Brick McCurdy @halfbrickmccurdy.bsky.social · 1d

He addresses questions academic economists consider important, most obviously the causes of economic growth, and does so using a language they recognise (and can formalise) and from within their professional institutions; he's one of their own, Ladurie wasn't.

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Half-Brick McCurdy @halfbrickmccurdy.bsky.social · 2d

Ladurie is the more significant historian, but American style Economic History has a lot more formal economics in it and is typically written by folk with advanced economics degrees asking economics questions. Hence Fogel could win an economics Nobel despite Time on the Cross being a weak history.

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Half-Brick McCurdy @halfbrickmccurdy.bsky.social · 2d

Rebranding what you're already doing and sending out press releases about it is bank marketing bollocks 101 (unless JP Morgan is saying it didn't invest in viable businesses in these sectors before Trump).

Financial Times @financialtimes.com · 2d

JPMorgan to invest up to $10bn in companies ‘essential’ to US on.ft.com/4ofAoxF

JPMorgan to invest up to $10bn in companies ‘essential’ to US

Jamie Dimon adopts ‘America First’ policies touted by Trump administration

on.ft.com

Half-Brick McCurdy @halfbrickmccurdy.bsky.social · 3d

In today's US this is tantamount to monetizing the persecution of the administration's political opponents. Frickin' genius.

Financial Times @financialtimes.com · 3d

Doge has failed; bring on the anti-graft bounty hunters on.ft.com/3W1ua8x | opinion

Doge has failed; bring on the anti-graft bounty hunters

Using cash prizes to fight corruption is not new in the US

on.ft.com

Half-Brick McCurdy @halfbrickmccurdy.bsky.social · 3d

Obvious danger here of lumping 2 developments together to make one straw man. To argue that the mbt is dead and to note that say America is equipping itself with buggies, are two different things neither of which rule out, for example,IFVs.

Half-Brick McCurdy @halfbrickmccurdy.bsky.social · 5d

* That even the decent bits of the British press (BBC and Financial Times) are buying into the "Antifa" myth while the current Whitehouse tries to connect it to the Democratic Socialists of America is genuinely scary.

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Half-Brick McCurdy @halfbrickmccurdy.bsky.social · 5d

Chaotic scenes in Los Angeles as the insurrectionist rebellion spreads *

We Know Something You Don't Know - DJ Format (Feat Chali 2na and Akil)

YouTube video by DJFormatUK

www.youtube.com

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Half-Brick McCurdy @halfbrickmccurdy.bsky.social · 6d

American Russian military expert in Foreign Affairs: Russia has "quietly constructed a complex ecosystem of learning that includes the defense manufacturing base, universities, and soldiers up and down the chain of command."

Russia: We buy things from China

The Insider @theins.press · 6d

Black Mirror hackers publish second part of Rostec archive, revealing cooperation with China on electronic warfare systems

A document to CEO Sergei Chemezov notably proposed partnering with “a group of companies from China” to develop and supply EW tech.

Black Mirror hackers publish second part of Rostec archive, revealing cooperation with China on electronic warfare systems

On Oct. 8, the Black Mirror hacker group released the second part of an archive belonging to Russian state-owned defense corporation Rostec. This tranche contains more than 300 documents, including in...

theins.press

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Half-Brick McCurdy @halfbrickmccurdy.bsky.social · 6d

2/2 and is fed a constant stream of new Ukrainian & Chinese drone tech. Its vehicle adaptation also involves donkeys and new tactics include chemical weapons and the Kherson "safari". Finally, Russian discipline is integral to its military adaptation, not an anomaly; no pits, no small team advances.

Half-Brick McCurdy @halfbrickmccurdy.bsky.social · 6d

1/2 A deeply flawed article that exaggerates and idealises Russia's institutional capabilities while sanitising it's military. Russia has adapted, but to describe this as being because it developed a “complex ecosystem of learning” is farcical. It bought the main element of its air war off the shelf

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Half-Brick McCurdy @halfbrickmccurdy.bsky.social · 6d

The West isn't dithering. Ukraine's allies continue to impose sanctions on Russia and provide new economic and military aid. The US stopped both in Jan 20th and is now unwinding sanctions on Russia. Clearly, neither is dithering, and clearly America is in a state of denial as to it's actual policy.

Half-Brick McCurdy @halfbrickmccurdy.bsky.social · 6d

Leaving out the fact Antifa is a Far Right online fever dream invented by the pizzagate folk is a bit of an oopsy.

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Half-Brick McCurdy @halfbrickmccurdy.bsky.social · 6d

An American action more significant than the latest Trump/JD Vance Ukraine related brainfart.

Peter Frankopan @peterfrankopan.bsky.social · 7d

Belarus rarely makes Western headlines — but it should this week.
A quiet move by the Trump administration has just handed Alexander Lukashenka, and indirectly Vladimir Putin, an unexpected gift.
🧵👇

Half-Brick McCurdy @halfbrickmccurdy.bsky.social · 6d

A thing I was wondering about central bank mortgage data is whether the overdue debt numbers take into account debt forgiveness i.e. it only takes a small % of new army recruits to have their up to RUB 10m debt forgiven to cancel out the month on month increases seen in overdue debt.

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Half-Brick McCurdy @halfbrickmccurdy.bsky.social · 6d

So that's a big, boring public statement of BAU confidence (and it's only only an "aim", so can be changed if necessary)

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Half-Brick McCurdy @halfbrickmccurdy.bsky.social · 6d

Here's one wee transmission mechanism to the wider economy

Estimating Securities-Based Loans Outstanding

The Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington DC.

www.federalreserve.gov

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Half-Brick McCurdy @halfbrickmccurdy.bsky.social · 7d

Nice one, cheers!