Elena Adaal
@elenaadaal.bsky.social
I post mostly on Brexit. I try to think carefully before I post.
The UK will not take part in the EU SAFE defence fund.
That would have been logical, but it did not happen.
I would like to make 2 points
1. On the attitude of the UK during the negotiations
2. On how a 'consentual approach' would have helped, and why UK is unable to do that.
(1/x)
That would have been logical, but it did not happen.
I would like to make 2 points
1. On the attitude of the UK during the negotiations
2. On how a 'consentual approach' would have helped, and why UK is unable to do that.
(1/x)
Must read from
@pimlicat.bsky.social
Pro Europeans on both side of the channel need to redouble our efforts to compromise, co-operate and forge stronger partnerships.
Even more important at a moment when Ukraine's sovereign future hangs in the balance.
www.bestforbritain.org/uk_access_to...
@pimlicat.bsky.social
Pro Europeans on both side of the channel need to redouble our efforts to compromise, co-operate and forge stronger partnerships.
Even more important at a moment when Ukraine's sovereign future hangs in the balance.
www.bestforbritain.org/uk_access_to...
UK access to SAFE vital to deter tyrant on our doorstep
The UK's access to Europe's SAFE defence fund is vital to deter "the tyrant on our doorstep", campaigners have stressed, following reports that negotiations over Britain joining the €150 billion fund ...
www.bestforbritain.org
November 29, 2025 at 4:31 PM
The UK will not take part in the EU SAFE defence fund.
That would have been logical, but it did not happen.
I would like to make 2 points
1. On the attitude of the UK during the negotiations
2. On how a 'consentual approach' would have helped, and why UK is unable to do that.
(1/x)
That would have been logical, but it did not happen.
I would like to make 2 points
1. On the attitude of the UK during the negotiations
2. On how a 'consentual approach' would have helped, and why UK is unable to do that.
(1/x)
The question is if the UK has any further desire for a deeper relationship.
This does not look to be the case: Starmer is unpopular, but that is already the case for a long time. UK Labour will likely think that it takes ages before its 2029 (next UK election), so there is no need for results now
This does not look to be the case: Starmer is unpopular, but that is already the case for a long time. UK Labour will likely think that it takes ages before its 2029 (next UK election), so there is no need for results now
"The UK and EU need to start that strategic planning now if they want the 2026 summit to deliver substance rather than symbolism"
🗞️ @jannikewachowiak.bsky.social argues that the UK-EU reset needs strategic planning to achieve tangible results for Social Europe
🔗 www.socialeurope.eu/the-uk-eu-re...
🗞️ @jannikewachowiak.bsky.social argues that the UK-EU reset needs strategic planning to achieve tangible results for Social Europe
🔗 www.socialeurope.eu/the-uk-eu-re...
The UK-EU Reset Needs Strategic Planning, Not Summit Improvisation
Without careful preparation and raised ambitions, the 2026 summit risks becoming a missed opportunity to inject real momentum into UK-EU relations.
www.socialeurope.eu
November 28, 2025 at 1:48 PM
The question is if the UK has any further desire for a deeper relationship.
This does not look to be the case: Starmer is unpopular, but that is already the case for a long time. UK Labour will likely think that it takes ages before its 2029 (next UK election), so there is no need for results now
This does not look to be the case: Starmer is unpopular, but that is already the case for a long time. UK Labour will likely think that it takes ages before its 2029 (next UK election), so there is no need for results now
Brazil is showing the way: Bolsonaro in jail and facing the US down on on tariffs.
For sure this will help the popularity of Lula more than if he would have grovelled.
For sure this will help the popularity of Lula more than if he would have grovelled.
Straws in the wind that Trump's tariff threats have peaked? Brazil were able to withstand threats given a globally competitive agricultural sector and seem to have won. www.ft.com/content/0526...
Brazil offers lesson in winning the ‘Taco’ trade
Global politicians need to understand that White House policy is driven by melodrama and instinct
www.ft.com
November 28, 2025 at 1:08 PM
Brazil is showing the way: Bolsonaro in jail and facing the US down on on tariffs.
For sure this will help the popularity of Lula more than if he would have grovelled.
For sure this will help the popularity of Lula more than if he would have grovelled.
3.1% of the Dutch population in 2023 is poor. Compared to the 7.1% in 2018 this figure is more than halved. Causes are higher minimum wage, higher wages (in general) and various support mechanisms.
Whatever you can say of Dutch politics, results are there.
longreads.cbs.nl/nederland-in...
Whatever you can say of Dutch politics, results are there.
longreads.cbs.nl/nederland-in...
Hoeveel mensen waren arm?
In 2023 waren 540 duizend mensen in Nederland arm. Dat is 3,1 procent van de bevolking. In 2018 waren nog twee keer zoveel mensen arm. Van alle minderjarige kinderen leefden 115 duizend (3,6 procent) ...
longreads.cbs.nl
November 28, 2025 at 9:05 AM
3.1% of the Dutch population in 2023 is poor. Compared to the 7.1% in 2018 this figure is more than halved. Causes are higher minimum wage, higher wages (in general) and various support mechanisms.
Whatever you can say of Dutch politics, results are there.
longreads.cbs.nl/nederland-in...
Whatever you can say of Dutch politics, results are there.
longreads.cbs.nl/nederland-in...
Very good that the UK is going to pay for its participation in SAFE.
Such a solution also sidesteps the problems UK has with paying up, by 'kicking the can down the road' (paying later)
Such a solution also sidesteps the problems UK has with paying up, by 'kicking the can down the road' (paying later)
Media briefings on UK-EU finances ahead of this weekend's SAFE deadline
www.politico.eu/article/uk-e...
www.politico.eu/article/uk-e...
November 28, 2025 at 7:53 AM
Very good that the UK is going to pay for its participation in SAFE.
Such a solution also sidesteps the problems UK has with paying up, by 'kicking the can down the road' (paying later)
Such a solution also sidesteps the problems UK has with paying up, by 'kicking the can down the road' (paying later)
Tucked in this article is the possible effect of UK sewage dumping on shellfish quality.
‘The customers are still there’: Welsh mussel farmers hope post-Brexit reset can revive business
‘The customers are still there’: Welsh mussel farmers hope post-Brexit reset can revive business
Shellfish exports to the EU from the Menai Strait have all but collapsed, but fishers are looking to the future
www.theguardian.com
November 28, 2025 at 7:09 AM
Tucked in this article is the possible effect of UK sewage dumping on shellfish quality.
It seems that UK is simply giving up on everything past Dover.
Ever more navel gazing, lower ambitions, and a drab future, filled with tax rises.
Where has the UK an ambition? Economy? Military? Environment? Human rights? Etc, etc,
Ever more navel gazing, lower ambitions, and a drab future, filled with tax rises.
Where has the UK an ambition? Economy? Military? Environment? Human rights? Etc, etc,
That most voters don't seem to care is a significant indicator of the growing divergence between the wider public's image of the UK's place in the world and the continuing aspirations of UK media and political elites to retain some final vestige of great power status
November 27, 2025 at 10:11 PM
It seems that UK is simply giving up on everything past Dover.
Ever more navel gazing, lower ambitions, and a drab future, filled with tax rises.
Where has the UK an ambition? Economy? Military? Environment? Human rights? Etc, etc,
Ever more navel gazing, lower ambitions, and a drab future, filled with tax rises.
Where has the UK an ambition? Economy? Military? Environment? Human rights? Etc, etc,
This is good news:
The UK is now enacting anti-foreigner measures left and right - the student levy being the last one - and it is good and right that this is taken in, and acted upon.
The UK is closed for business.
The UK is now enacting anti-foreigner measures left and right - the student levy being the last one - and it is good and right that this is taken in, and acted upon.
The UK is closed for business.
The Brexodus continues.
“Overall, the provisional figures show 70,000 more EU nationals left than arrived, while 109,000 more British nationals left than arrived. By contrast, the net migration figure for non-EU nationals was 383,000.”
www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cn...
“Overall, the provisional figures show 70,000 more EU nationals left than arrived, while 109,000 more British nationals left than arrived. By contrast, the net migration figure for non-EU nationals was 383,000.”
www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cn...
UK net migration drops sharply to 204,000 in year to June - live updates
The Office for National Statistics says the fall is driven by fewer non-EU nationals arriving for work and study, and a
www.bbc.co.uk
November 27, 2025 at 11:53 AM
This is good news:
The UK is now enacting anti-foreigner measures left and right - the student levy being the last one - and it is good and right that this is taken in, and acted upon.
The UK is closed for business.
The UK is now enacting anti-foreigner measures left and right - the student levy being the last one - and it is good and right that this is taken in, and acted upon.
The UK is closed for business.
Good illustration on the 'migration doom loop'. This is applies to the whole of Europe (including the Netherlands)
Key point: When going through the doom loop, everything always gets worse: The economy does not improve, there is not less support for populists, and irregular migration does not stop
Key point: When going through the doom loop, everything always gets worse: The economy does not improve, there is not less support for populists, and irregular migration does not stop
Today's migration stats illustrate the migration doom loop in action...
(from my presentation at the IMF last week)
(from my presentation at the IMF last week)
November 27, 2025 at 11:39 AM
Good illustration on the 'migration doom loop'. This is applies to the whole of Europe (including the Netherlands)
Key point: When going through the doom loop, everything always gets worse: The economy does not improve, there is not less support for populists, and irregular migration does not stop
Key point: When going through the doom loop, everything always gets worse: The economy does not improve, there is not less support for populists, and irregular migration does not stop
This is part of a general pattern: the most odious persons try to gain power via the far-right platform.
Farage a ‘nasty piece of work’ and not fit to be anywhere near British politics . A Trump n Putin puppet
November 27, 2025 at 11:30 AM
This is part of a general pattern: the most odious persons try to gain power via the far-right platform.
Reposted by Elena Adaal
Whatever else this government do (and there's plenty of issues with this budget) ministers will always be able to point to this as an incredible important contribution to the country's future. Almost half a million kids taken out of poverty.
Scrapping the two-child limit in full is a monumental decision. Well done to all involved in the Child Poverty Strategy, and everyone who has made the case against the policy.
OBR says scrapping costs £3 billion in 2029-30 and will lift 450,000 out of poverty
OBR says scrapping costs £3 billion in 2029-30 and will lift 450,000 out of poverty
November 26, 2025 at 1:03 PM
Whatever else this government do (and there's plenty of issues with this budget) ministers will always be able to point to this as an incredible important contribution to the country's future. Almost half a million kids taken out of poverty.
An apt take on the state of UK gov. by someone far more learned than I:
Many times I noted that results seem secondary to UK gov., and that performance looks to be the most important thing.
The two reasons for that (lack of agency + no faith in governance) seem plausible.
Many times I noted that results seem secondary to UK gov., and that performance looks to be the most important thing.
The two reasons for that (lack of agency + no faith in governance) seem plausible.
I don’t think it’s difficult to see where we are today (literally) in this discussion.
But I think now the combination of perceived lack of agency plus lack of faith in government has caused a crisis of action in which policy is considered secondary to ‘performance’.
But I think now the combination of perceived lack of agency plus lack of faith in government has caused a crisis of action in which policy is considered secondary to ‘performance’.
November 26, 2025 at 9:30 AM
An apt take on the state of UK gov. by someone far more learned than I:
Many times I noted that results seem secondary to UK gov., and that performance looks to be the most important thing.
The two reasons for that (lack of agency + no faith in governance) seem plausible.
Many times I noted that results seem secondary to UK gov., and that performance looks to be the most important thing.
The two reasons for that (lack of agency + no faith in governance) seem plausible.
Good to keep reminding everyone that having so much poverty is a deliberate choice of UK gov., made every day.
Britain is one of the world’s richest countries. Why do a third of children live in poverty?
It is a political choice - years of austerity, real wage cuts, regressive taxation, unchecked profiteering, disappearance of social housing, hijacking of govts by corporations/rich.
It is a political choice - years of austerity, real wage cuts, regressive taxation, unchecked profiteering, disappearance of social housing, hijacking of govts by corporations/rich.
Britain is one of the world’s richest countries. So why do a third of its children live in poverty? | CNN
Child poverty has reached a record high in the United Kingdom as the country’s cost of living soars and its social security safety net falters following years of government austerity.
edition.cnn.com
November 26, 2025 at 9:12 AM
Good to keep reminding everyone that having so much poverty is a deliberate choice of UK gov., made every day.
Excellent by @rafaelbehr.bsky.social, on the UK Labour hesitance to keep administering only hard medicine, with nothing more than just hope that things will improve.
Interesting that also the non-economic effects of Brexit are explicity mentioned.
Interesting that also the non-economic effects of Brexit are explicity mentioned.
Labour seems frozen by “twin fears…that swing voters would freak out if they thought Reeves was a tax-and-spend fiend or Starmer might smuggle remainer convictions into Downing St”
But, the foreign state that benefits most from Brexit inaction is Putin’s Russia.
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
But, the foreign state that benefits most from Brexit inaction is Putin’s Russia.
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
Rachel Reeves has many problems. She’s realising that her Brexit bind may be the biggest of all | Rafael Behr
Brutal economic realities are prompting a shift in Labour’s tone on Europe. But will it dare tell the whole truth about Britain’s predicament, asks Guardian columnist Rafael Behr
www.theguardian.com
November 26, 2025 at 8:57 AM
Excellent by @rafaelbehr.bsky.social, on the UK Labour hesitance to keep administering only hard medicine, with nothing more than just hope that things will improve.
Interesting that also the non-economic effects of Brexit are explicity mentioned.
Interesting that also the non-economic effects of Brexit are explicity mentioned.
Reposted by Elena Adaal
For all the frenzy about how the Europeans or Ukrainians were doomed four days ago or speculation about what Russia is up to, nothing in concrete terms has changed for the moment for both sides of this war
Instead it's the Americans who ceremoniously shot themselves in both feet
Instead it's the Americans who ceremoniously shot themselves in both feet
November 25, 2025 at 10:39 PM
For all the frenzy about how the Europeans or Ukrainians were doomed four days ago or speculation about what Russia is up to, nothing in concrete terms has changed for the moment for both sides of this war
Instead it's the Americans who ceremoniously shot themselves in both feet
Instead it's the Americans who ceremoniously shot themselves in both feet
It seems strange to have someone like Witkoff in your government.
Three things about the Witkoff tapes:
1) It appears Western intelligence services have decided to let Witkoff (and Trump) know they have recordings of their traitorous conversations w/Russia.
2) This Ukraine "deal" was all Witkoff's idea.
3) Congressional leaders should demand he be fired.
1) It appears Western intelligence services have decided to let Witkoff (and Trump) know they have recordings of their traitorous conversations w/Russia.
2) This Ukraine "deal" was all Witkoff's idea.
3) Congressional leaders should demand he be fired.
EXCLUSIVE: US presidential envoy Steve Witkoff advised Russia on how to pitch Ukraine plans to Trump, in audio files reviewed by Bloomberg
November 25, 2025 at 9:45 PM
It seems strange to have someone like Witkoff in your government.
Very good:
Dutch public broadcaster NOS quits X over disinformation reut.rs/3KpybRU
Dutch public broadcaster NOS quits X over disinformation
Dutch public broadcaster NOS on Tuesday said it had stopped posting on Elon Musk's social media platform X, as it said it did not want to facilitate the spreading of disinformation.
reut.rs
November 25, 2025 at 9:33 PM
Very good:
November 25, 2025 at 2:57 PM
It is good to draw the conclusion that the Trump/Vance US is no longer a reliable ally, but it is especially important to act on that.
Europe should build up its own defense as rapidly as possible, of course including a full nuclear umbrella, and consider a new NATO, without the US.
Europe should build up its own defense as rapidly as possible, of course including a full nuclear umbrella, and consider a new NATO, without the US.
Yes, but it is also a fact now that there is a pattern to it.
As the saying goes, fool me once, shame on you, fool my twice, shame on me. The Europeans should no longer dellude themselves that a Trump/Vance US can be a reliable ally.
As the saying goes, fool me once, shame on you, fool my twice, shame on me. The Europeans should no longer dellude themselves that a Trump/Vance US can be a reliable ally.
The Trump cycle on Russia-Ukraine. Some pro-Russian plan emerges. Instant commentariat renew their "Trump as Russian plant" stories. Plan is amended under EU (and US) pressure. Putin rejects it. Instant commentariat is puzzled. Rinse and repeat. www.nytimes.com/2025/11/24/u...
November 25, 2025 at 9:15 AM
It is good to draw the conclusion that the Trump/Vance US is no longer a reliable ally, but it is especially important to act on that.
Europe should build up its own defense as rapidly as possible, of course including a full nuclear umbrella, and consider a new NATO, without the US.
Europe should build up its own defense as rapidly as possible, of course including a full nuclear umbrella, and consider a new NATO, without the US.
Reposted by Elena Adaal
Turns out I wasn’t the only one who thought this paper was an excellent x-ray of the UK economy.
It features prominently in Martin Wolfs new FT column
It features prominently in Martin Wolfs new FT column
November 24, 2025 at 5:55 PM
Turns out I wasn’t the only one who thought this paper was an excellent x-ray of the UK economy.
It features prominently in Martin Wolfs new FT column
It features prominently in Martin Wolfs new FT column
Further proof that the UK is closed for business.
UK does not like foreigners, and that goes for an awful lot of people in the UK.
Sensible people avoid going to UK.
UK does not like foreigners, and that goes for an awful lot of people in the UK.
Sensible people avoid going to UK.
With Rachel Reeves reportedly set to apply a new tax on tuition fees paid by overseas students, most Britons support such a move at the previously mooted level of 6%
Support: 57%
Oppose: 18%
yougov.co.uk/topics/socie...
Support: 57%
Oppose: 18%
yougov.co.uk/topics/socie...
November 24, 2025 at 6:38 PM
Further proof that the UK is closed for business.
UK does not like foreigners, and that goes for an awful lot of people in the UK.
Sensible people avoid going to UK.
UK does not like foreigners, and that goes for an awful lot of people in the UK.
Sensible people avoid going to UK.
The Tories hardly feature in the public discourse anymore, but sometimes they resurface and remind all of us again why that is the case.
Keep pushing austerity Tories...
www.theguardian.com/politics/liv...
...I look forward to never seeing you in power again
www.theguardian.com/politics/liv...
...I look forward to never seeing you in power again
Badenoch says growth being held up because ‘the state is too big’ and claims she is getting better at being Tory leader – UK politics live
Kemi Badenoch tells CBI conference that fewer people are working to support more people out of work
www.theguardian.com
November 24, 2025 at 3:09 PM
The Tories hardly feature in the public discourse anymore, but sometimes they resurface and remind all of us again why that is the case.
UK and Europe will become strangers to each other.
Note: the reason Europeans won't come to study in UK anymore is likely a practical one: For Europeans, studying in UK costs 10 times or more what it costs in Europe.
Note: the reason Europeans won't come to study in UK anymore is likely a practical one: For Europeans, studying in UK costs 10 times or more what it costs in Europe.
No European country left in the top 10 countries of origin for international students.
Matching the pattern in overall migration to the UK, after Brexit there was a sharp drop off from the EU, and a rise from the rest of the world.
Matching the pattern in overall migration to the UK, after Brexit there was a sharp drop off from the EU, and a rise from the rest of the world.
November 24, 2025 at 11:53 AM
UK and Europe will become strangers to each other.
Note: the reason Europeans won't come to study in UK anymore is likely a practical one: For Europeans, studying in UK costs 10 times or more what it costs in Europe.
Note: the reason Europeans won't come to study in UK anymore is likely a practical one: For Europeans, studying in UK costs 10 times or more what it costs in Europe.
I hope that these extremists that try to undermine European democracies will be investigated and exposed in all European countries.
This is one of the big accounts boosting Tommy Robinson, Farage and Reform and ‘English Patriots’.
It’s Russian.
It’s Russian.
November 24, 2025 at 11:32 AM
I hope that these extremists that try to undermine European democracies will be investigated and exposed in all European countries.
Excellent.
For sure a referendum on a United Ireland will be like Brexit, with the uninformed in fruitless discussion with the zealots, while reason takes the back seat, but the effort of trying to have a good debate beforehand is laudable.
For sure a referendum on a United Ireland will be like Brexit, with the uninformed in fruitless discussion with the zealots, while reason takes the back seat, but the effort of trying to have a good debate beforehand is laudable.
November 24, 2025 at 8:07 AM
Excellent.
For sure a referendum on a United Ireland will be like Brexit, with the uninformed in fruitless discussion with the zealots, while reason takes the back seat, but the effort of trying to have a good debate beforehand is laudable.
For sure a referendum on a United Ireland will be like Brexit, with the uninformed in fruitless discussion with the zealots, while reason takes the back seat, but the effort of trying to have a good debate beforehand is laudable.