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David Roth

@drmetwatch.bsky.social

2.3K followers 1.5K following 970 posts

Meteorologist. Into weather records. Soft spot for subtropical 🌀. 😻 and nature imagery, too.

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David Roth @drmetwatch.bsky.social · 3d

A convective, and per TAFB/NHC non-frontal, 1010 hPa low has formed over South FL. Per OPC, gale force winds already exist to its northeast.

The cyclone should move north along the coast on succeeding days. 🐻⌚️

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David Roth @drmetwatch.bsky.social · 2m

Our dual-centered nor’easter. Gale-force winds continue near both centers.

David Roth @drmetwatch.bsky.social · 8m

A closer look at Post-T.C. Jerry

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David Roth @drmetwatch.bsky.social · 47m

The 20th century reanalysis is tuned to HURDAT. At least there was some moisture surge into the Southwest. Most TCs lose their surface cyclone quickly as they enter the Southwest.

Reposted by David Roth

James Franklin @franklinjamesl.bsky.social · 3h

With about 80% of the precincts reporting I've seen enough. GDMI - Google DeepMind is going to win the seat for best track model in 2025. The race for best intensity model is still too close to call, but GDMI is right there with the consensus and OFCL. Quite a remarkable campaign.

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David Roth @drmetwatch.bsky.social · 2h

Once Harrison Tran backfilled TC rainfall graphics for older storms four years ago, including from the northeast Pacific, the tracks became necessary for CLIQR purposes. I’m hoping to update the database for newer seasons soon.

David Roth @drmetwatch.bsky.social · 2h

Try the CLIQR database. NHC is aware that I placed older tracks in there, back to 1899. I helped one of their summer students find these a decade or so ago.

www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/rot...

www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

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David Roth @drmetwatch.bsky.social · 5h

Post-T.C. Jerry and T.S. Lorenzo.

Lorenzo may become a threat to the Azores. 🐻⌚️

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David Roth @drmetwatch.bsky.social · 16h

aviationweather.gov does as well, so I’d seen that version of a station model before. :)

National Weather Service

weather.gov

David Roth @drmetwatch.bsky.social · 18h

Altimeter?

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David Roth @drmetwatch.bsky.social · 19h

If it helps, Kotzebue got exceedingly close to its October low pressure record recently, which is 967.8 hPa, set October 3, 1960. Its all-time record is only a few hPa lower.

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David Roth @drmetwatch.bsky.social · 1d

There remains “low hanging fruit” in the October low pressure records across eastern NC, mentioned in prior years. 988 would be all you’d need to HSE/Hatteras; their period of record is ~150 years. 🐻⌚️

David Roth @drmetwatch.bsky.social · 1d

The storm-force nor’easter is offshore Cape Fear NC. 992 hPa central pressure at 8 am Oct 12. Up here, periods and light rain/drizzle and breezy. 60f.

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David Roth @drmetwatch.bsky.social · 2d

Down to 1004 hPa at 8 am EDT Oct 11. Analyzed as a convective frontal wave. 40 kt winds reported a bit to its north but they could be higher considering the increased pressure gradient.

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David Roth @drmetwatch.bsky.social · 2d

There’s a 1007 hPa center in the FL Straits & a more broad 1008 hPa low northwest of Grand Bahama Island. A 40 kt wind report lies a bit offshore northeast FL.

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Reposted by David Roth

Damian Shields @damianshields.bsky.social · 5d

Autumn light over Loch Clair #Scotland #WesterRoss #Kinlochewe #Highlands www.damianshields.com

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Reposted by David Roth

European Space Agency @esa.int · 3d

🌎 Let's take a look back at when Cyclone Errol was heading towards the coast of Western Australia on 16 April.

In this @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social Sentinel-3 image, the typical pinhole eye – a small, well-defined eye often associated tropical cyclones – is clearly visible.

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David Roth @drmetwatch.bsky.social · 3d

It’s been fun, Karen

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David Roth @drmetwatch.bsky.social · 3d

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David Roth @drmetwatch.bsky.social · 3d

The moon this morning

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David Roth @drmetwatch.bsky.social · 3d

Stories, or stores? ;)

David Roth @drmetwatch.bsky.social · 3d

Clockwise from the top: Priscilla with fresh convection, Raymond near the Mexican coast, and Post-T.C. Octave, moving generally in Raymond’s direction.

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David Roth @drmetwatch.bsky.social · 3d

Up to 60%….

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David Roth @drmetwatch.bsky.social · 3d

Forever way from Quintana Roo. They could be safe. 🐻⌚️

David Roth @drmetwatch.bsky.social · 3d

Cloud tops are cooling. NHC is up to 40% chance of formation. Mentioned the possibility of advisories tonight in the Tropical Weather Outlook.

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Reposted by David Roth

National Weather Service @nws.noaa.gov · 3d

A strong coastal low will develop late this week & will bring significant impacts to much of the U.S. East Coast through early next week.

There is potential for significant coastal flooding, strong rip currents & beach erosion, damaging wind gusts, & heavy rain.

Stay up to date at weather.gov.

Key Messages for Strong Coastal Low
- A coastal low is expected to form off the Southeast U.S. coast on Friday night and strengthen into the weekend, impacting the East Coast through early next week.
- Strong onshore winds, high surf, and high astronomical tides could cause significant coastal flooding. Residents should follow local official guidance.
- High surf is expected on many East Coast beaches, increasing the risk of rip currents and erosion.
- Wind gusts over 55mph and heavy rainfall may hit coastal areas of the Mid-Atlantic and Long Island, possibly reaching southern New England. Risks include power outages and inland flooding.

Also includes two maps showing the chance of 55mph wind gusts on Sunday, Oct 12. The highest chances areas include parts of the Mid-Atlantic coast. And the most likely storm total rainfall. Areas in dark green to orange indicate rainfall between 1 to 6 inches, with heaviest rain projected along the coast of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

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