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Reposted by David H. Montgomery

Stacey Burns @wentrogue.bsky.social · 6h

If you don’t have kids, aren’t a teacher, and/or didn’t go to school here, you might not know what “MEA weekend” refers to—and Tim Harlow isn’t about to enlighten you.

Story in the Strib by transportation writer Tim Harlow, titled “MEA weekend flyers may face delays at airport.” Nowhere in the article is MEA defined

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Reposted by David H. Montgomery

norvid_studies @norvid-studies.bsky.social · 22h

Disney Pixar's Inside Out but set in the head of a British junior officer in 1916

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David H. Montgomery @dhmontgomery.com · 1d

Yeah I found that. Was hoping to find a PDF I could reference today for free rather than a book I’d have to pay for and get in a week or two. But that may be where I end up.

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Reposted by David H. Montgomery

David M. Perry @lollardfish.bsky.social · 1d

NEW POST: In Bloody Crowns, @michaellivingston.com argues that the "Hundred Years War" is really a two hundred years, and was started by the French, fought in what today we call France, and won by people who got to define what France would be.

- from me and @profgabriele.com

Book Review: "Bloody Crown" by Michael Livingston

A New History of the Hundred (or maybe Two Hundred) Years War

buttondown.com

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David H. Montgomery @dhmontgomery.com · 2d

Yup! Question wording matters a lot, especially for topics people don’t have deeply held opinions about.

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David H. Montgomery @dhmontgomery.com · 2d

Basically, I think smart poll consumers take polling “seriously but not literally.” It has enormous value to understand popular sentiment! But it’s a mistake to get too fixated on specific precise numbers.

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David H. Montgomery @dhmontgomery.com · 2d

So if you see a poll showing 10% of Americans saying something that *should* be 2%, or 2% saying something that should be 0%, it’s bad polling literacy to focus on how the number is too large. Instead what’s important is that it’s really small!

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David H. Montgomery @dhmontgomery.com · 2d

For something like presidential vote preference where both sides are close to 50%, these respondent errors mostly cancel each other out.

But for rare viewpoints, adding randomness to some responses will push rates in the direction of 50%.

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David H. Montgomery @dhmontgomery.com · 2d

It’s a pretty standard principle that polling will tend to exaggerate the prevalence of rare views. Like, say 2% of Americans hold a view. A 100% accurate poll will find a value of 2% +/- the MoE.

But some small share of respondents mis-click, or mis-understand the Q, or press randomly.

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David H. Montgomery @dhmontgomery.com · 2d

YouGov asks questions like that all the time as part of our attention checks. It’s pretty standard practice. Any respondent might mis-click occasionally, but people who do so persistently get filtered out.

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David H. Montgomery @dhmontgomery.com · 2d

Good game, Brewers. Well played, and good luck against the Dodgers.

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Reposted by David H. Montgomery

alt.tv.pink-opaque @maxrebosroadie.bsky.social · 3d

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Reposted by David H. Montgomery

Matt Trueblood @matrueblood.bsky.social · 2d

Palencia’s clearly running low on fuel. Been heavy use for a guy who made it back fast from a shoulder strain last month. Huge, huge, huge play by Hoerner to get him out of that inning.

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David H. Montgomery @dhmontgomery.com · 3d

It’s great!

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David H. Montgomery @dhmontgomery.com · 3d

Congrats to the Mariners!

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David H. Montgomery @dhmontgomery.com · 3d

Hope everyone likes free baseball!

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Reposted by David H. Montgomery

Grant Brisbee @grantbrisbee.bsky.social · 3d

Every Mariners hitter gets an iPad when they get in the dugout. It will read, “Swing at the pitches down the middle this time” in 76-point comic sans. They’ll be unsure. Computers have been known to lie.

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David H. Montgomery @dhmontgomery.com · 3d

That's where I watched Game 7 in 2016 — an electric environment. It's a bit of a hike from my current place in Minneapolis, but definitely under consideration.

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David H. Montgomery @dhmontgomery.com · 3d

Ha, I lived on 41st and Nokomis until 2023, so that *would* have been extremely convenient, now merely helpful.

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David H. Montgomery @dhmontgomery.com · 3d

ALDS is tonight, NLDS is tomorrow. No conflict.

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David H. Montgomery @dhmontgomery.com · 3d

Any Twin Cities bars going to be showing the NLDS Game 5 tomorrow night — with sound on? Bonus points if there'll be a critical mass of Cubs fans there.

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Reposted by David H. Montgomery

Matt Trueblood @matrueblood.bsky.social · 3d

How will Craig Counsell deploy his pitching staff in a do-or-die Game 5 Saturday night? We'll find out at 7 PM tomorrow. But here's a whole lot of good info on how he *should* do so, based on matchups and usage up to this point in the series. northsidebaseball.com/news-rumors/...