David Herdson
@davidherdson.bsky.social
Part-time writer. Political activist. Fan of Bradford City and rail travel (amongst other things). Bibliophile. Dad. List not necessarily in order of importance.
The problem with this graph is the line should be a band / range. Properties with the same current value pay very different amounts across the country due to:
1. Local political choices. Which is fair enough: that's democracy.
2. Disparities in house price inflation since 1991. Which is unfair.
1. Local political choices. Which is fair enough: that's democracy.
2. Disparities in house price inflation since 1991. Which is unfair.
It's time to be nice about the Budget.
The council tax surcharge is a good policy. Very compromised/imperfect, but still good policy.
This is why:
The council tax surcharge is a good policy. Very compromised/imperfect, but still good policy.
This is why:
November 28, 2025 at 11:59 AM
The problem with this graph is the line should be a band / range. Properties with the same current value pay very different amounts across the country due to:
1. Local political choices. Which is fair enough: that's democracy.
2. Disparities in house price inflation since 1991. Which is unfair.
1. Local political choices. Which is fair enough: that's democracy.
2. Disparities in house price inflation since 1991. Which is unfair.
If Trump can remove citizenship rights from one group of Americans he doesn't like, he can remove them from any - and this will be groups, not individuals.
Given the choice between breaking his word and inconvenience he always chooses the former. Any country relying on America should remember that.
Given the choice between breaking his word and inconvenience he always chooses the former. Any country relying on America should remember that.
Trump: “I will permanently pause migration from all Third World Countries … denaturalize migrants who undermine domestic tranquility, and deport any Foreign National who is a public charge, security risk, or non-compatible with Western Civilization.“
November 28, 2025 at 5:32 AM
If Trump can remove citizenship rights from one group of Americans he doesn't like, he can remove them from any - and this will be groups, not individuals.
Given the choice between breaking his word and inconvenience he always chooses the former. Any country relying on America should remember that.
Given the choice between breaking his word and inconvenience he always chooses the former. Any country relying on America should remember that.
Reposted by David Herdson
Tax later, then.
I do wonder how politically sustainable this will be when Labour MPs get their heads around the take-home pay squeeze this represents *in the next election year*.
And yet, with big deficits until then, can Labour risk an adverse market reaction if they *then* delay the rises?
I do wonder how politically sustainable this will be when Labour MPs get their heads around the take-home pay squeeze this represents *in the next election year*.
And yet, with big deficits until then, can Labour risk an adverse market reaction if they *then* delay the rises?
The tax rises in this Budget’s are backloaded.
They're largely kick in in what is likely to be a pre-election year, somewhat implausibly.
They're largely kick in in what is likely to be a pre-election year, somewhat implausibly.
November 27, 2025 at 4:34 PM
Tax later, then.
I do wonder how politically sustainable this will be when Labour MPs get their heads around the take-home pay squeeze this represents *in the next election year*.
And yet, with big deficits until then, can Labour risk an adverse market reaction if they *then* delay the rises?
I do wonder how politically sustainable this will be when Labour MPs get their heads around the take-home pay squeeze this represents *in the next election year*.
And yet, with big deficits until then, can Labour risk an adverse market reaction if they *then* delay the rises?
Fully agree with this. It's a formula regional news uses regularly - "[controversial statement, usually severely critical of government / agency]. That's according to [critic]".
It's a serious bias, not giving the criticized anything like the same prominence in their reply.
It's a serious bias, not giving the criticized anything like the same prominence in their reply.
Headline on The World at One just now:
"Sir Keir Starmer has denied putting the Labour Party before the country by ending the two-child benefit cap".
Can we please go back to reporting the actual news, not someone's partisan take on it?
"Sir Keir Starmer has denied putting the Labour Party before the country by ending the two-child benefit cap".
Can we please go back to reporting the actual news, not someone's partisan take on it?
November 27, 2025 at 2:25 PM
Fully agree with this. It's a formula regional news uses regularly - "[controversial statement, usually severely critical of government / agency]. That's according to [critic]".
It's a serious bias, not giving the criticized anything like the same prominence in their reply.
It's a serious bias, not giving the criticized anything like the same prominence in their reply.
Not to debate the relative effect of the two measures but not increasing a tax is not the same as a subsidy.
Road fuel is still very heavily taxed (and rail subsidized) overall.
Road fuel is still very heavily taxed (and rail subsidized) overall.
Cost of extending the fuel duty cut plus cancelled uprating next year: £2.4 billion.
Cost of freezing rail fares next year: £145 million.
Sixteen times more expensive to maintain the fuel duty cut/freeze than to freeze rail fares
Imagine how much fares could be *cut* by ending car fuel subsidies.
Cost of freezing rail fares next year: £145 million.
Sixteen times more expensive to maintain the fuel duty cut/freeze than to freeze rail fares
Imagine how much fares could be *cut* by ending car fuel subsidies.
November 26, 2025 at 2:50 PM
Not to debate the relative effect of the two measures but not increasing a tax is not the same as a subsidy.
Road fuel is still very heavily taxed (and rail subsidized) overall.
Road fuel is still very heavily taxed (and rail subsidized) overall.
A nonsense, backwards step from the government, which will raise peanuts in tax but cause a whole load of unnecessary disruption and paperwork.
Labour makes occasional pro-European noises (when not running scared of Reform) but moves like this are the reality.
Reduce friction; join the SM.
Labour makes occasional pro-European noises (when not running scared of Reform) but moves like this are the reality.
Reduce friction; join the SM.
Others may also be abolishing de minimis exemptions, but let's not pretend that this isn't raising import prices and therefore likely to be net economic negative.
GB small business will also be particularly hit by the EU taking the same step.
GB small business will also be particularly hit by the EU taking the same step.
November 26, 2025 at 2:46 PM
A nonsense, backwards step from the government, which will raise peanuts in tax but cause a whole load of unnecessary disruption and paperwork.
Labour makes occasional pro-European noises (when not running scared of Reform) but moves like this are the reality.
Reduce friction; join the SM.
Labour makes occasional pro-European noises (when not running scared of Reform) but moves like this are the reality.
Reduce friction; join the SM.
Reposted by David Herdson
In honour of its proponents, I suggest that the Dmitriev-Witkoff proposal should henceforth be called the Dim-Wit Plan
November 23, 2025 at 2:37 PM
In honour of its proponents, I suggest that the Dmitriev-Witkoff proposal should henceforth be called the Dim-Wit Plan
It'll be interesting to see how the govt plans on levying this tax. Obviously, there's no national road toll system so presumably it'd be reliant on checks on odometers, perhaps at MoT checks? Though that wouldn't include the first two years.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Electric vehicle owners to face pay-per-mile tax
Drivers of electric cars will pay a road charge of 3p per mile, while plug-in hybrid drivers will pay 1.5p per mile from April 2028.
www.bbc.co.uk
November 26, 2025 at 2:04 PM
It'll be interesting to see how the govt plans on levying this tax. Obviously, there's no national road toll system so presumably it'd be reliant on checks on odometers, perhaps at MoT checks? Though that wouldn't include the first two years.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Oh look. Another MoD procurement screw-up. At a time when domestically-manufactured equipment is of greatly increasing importance, this sort of incompetence is unacceptable.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Army halts use of Ajax armoured vehicles after 30 soldiers fall ill
The UK government previously said they were ready for deployment with interest from Nato allies.
www.bbc.co.uk
November 26, 2025 at 10:27 AM
Oh look. Another MoD procurement screw-up. At a time when domestically-manufactured equipment is of greatly increasing importance, this sort of incompetence is unacceptable.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
A year and a half (at most) to the next French presidential election and Marine Le Pen's party is well-set to win.
The general media ignorance of the continent in favour of American minutiae is a gross disservice to the British public, as well as a distortion of the global picture.
The general media ignorance of the continent in favour of American minutiae is a gross disservice to the British public, as well as a distortion of the global picture.
Don’t say you weren’t warned.
New poll suggests Jordan Bardella would win second round of 🇫🇷 presidential election against any other of four tested candidates ⬇️
New poll suggests Jordan Bardella would win second round of 🇫🇷 presidential election against any other of four tested candidates ⬇️
November 26, 2025 at 10:22 AM
A year and a half (at most) to the next French presidential election and Marine Le Pen's party is well-set to win.
The general media ignorance of the continent in favour of American minutiae is a gross disservice to the British public, as well as a distortion of the global picture.
The general media ignorance of the continent in favour of American minutiae is a gross disservice to the British public, as well as a distortion of the global picture.
Many other countries have very good jurisprudence without using juries to the extent that Britain does. That reality can't be ignored.
But. It's much easier for the state to undermine the independence of the system if those administering it are all paid employees.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
But. It's much easier for the state to undermine the independence of the system if those administering it are all paid employees.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Justice secretary wants most jury trials scrapped
Only cases of alleged murder, rape or manslaughter will be decided by a jury under new proposals to cut court backlogs.
www.bbc.co.uk
November 26, 2025 at 10:15 AM
Many other countries have very good jurisprudence without using juries to the extent that Britain does. That reality can't be ignored.
But. It's much easier for the state to undermine the independence of the system if those administering it are all paid employees.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
But. It's much easier for the state to undermine the independence of the system if those administering it are all paid employees.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Reposted by David Herdson
The government’s stated number one goal is growth.
Its actual number one goal is scrabbling together enough money to meet the fiscal rules while trying not to actually make any tough decisions or piss anyone off. It is not very good at that goal, not least because it’s a stupid one.
Its actual number one goal is scrabbling together enough money to meet the fiscal rules while trying not to actually make any tough decisions or piss anyone off. It is not very good at that goal, not least because it’s a stupid one.
If the Government do go ahead with the mooted plan in here to (effectively) remove workplace pensions from salary sacrifice schemes I am genuinely a little in awe of how bad their "growth strategy is."
www.ft.com/content/ca5e...
www.ft.com/content/ca5e...
The four audiences Reeves’ ‘high-wire’ Budget must satisfy
Chancellor needs a lot to go right if she is to somehow reconcile interests of Labour MPs, markets, business and the public
www.ft.com
November 26, 2025 at 12:47 AM
The government’s stated number one goal is growth.
Its actual number one goal is scrabbling together enough money to meet the fiscal rules while trying not to actually make any tough decisions or piss anyone off. It is not very good at that goal, not least because it’s a stupid one.
Its actual number one goal is scrabbling together enough money to meet the fiscal rules while trying not to actually make any tough decisions or piss anyone off. It is not very good at that goal, not least because it’s a stupid one.
Against low growth and last year's NI increase, a 4-6% increase in the minimum wage feels risky for unemployment, inflation and costs in care, hospitality and other similar sectors.
November 25, 2025 at 6:06 PM
Against low growth and last year's NI increase, a 4-6% increase in the minimum wage feels risky for unemployment, inflation and costs in care, hospitality and other similar sectors.
Reposted by David Herdson
This is true for the transatlantic defense relationship. Without shared values, it is more difficult to see a US pledge to risk nuclear war for distant NATO allies as credible.
What Trump has made me realise is how much the post-Cold War relationship hinged on shared values rather than shared interests. Trump is illustrating how, whether on Ukraine and Gaza, our interests diverge and, absent those values, there's not much holding us together.
November 25, 2025 at 5:43 PM
This is true for the transatlantic defense relationship. Without shared values, it is more difficult to see a US pledge to risk nuclear war for distant NATO allies as credible.
I feel deeply uncomfortable with this. Trial by jury is a protection against an over-mighty state using the system of law against those it sees as its political enemies (sound familiar?).
That is not a threat here now but it's a real enough risk it might become one.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
That is not a threat here now but it's a real enough risk it might become one.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Jury trials could be scrapped except in most serious cases
Only cases of alleged murder, rape or manslaughter will be decided by a jury under new proposals to cut court backlogs.
www.bbc.co.uk
November 25, 2025 at 4:18 PM
I feel deeply uncomfortable with this. Trial by jury is a protection against an over-mighty state using the system of law against those it sees as its political enemies (sound familiar?).
That is not a threat here now but it's a real enough risk it might become one.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
That is not a threat here now but it's a real enough risk it might become one.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Just expanding on this point, there are quite a few times when a major party was nearly overtaken by a lesser one (Labour 1981/2, maybe 1985/6, 2010, 2019; Tories 2019) and each time they've survived.
That demonstrates a reliable dynamic but it's not an Iron Law. Eventually the elastic does snap.
That demonstrates a reliable dynamic but it's not an Iron Law. Eventually the elastic does snap.
We did (although it nearly happened in 2019 too, without a general election; there might have been special circumstances then but such disruption always needs something a bit exceptional).
But I was asked for a realistic scenario, not a most-likely one.
But I was asked for a realistic scenario, not a most-likely one.
November 25, 2025 at 3:50 PM
Just expanding on this point, there are quite a few times when a major party was nearly overtaken by a lesser one (Labour 1981/2, maybe 1985/6, 2010, 2019; Tories 2019) and each time they've survived.
That demonstrates a reliable dynamic but it's not an Iron Law. Eventually the elastic does snap.
That demonstrates a reliable dynamic but it's not an Iron Law. Eventually the elastic does snap.
Reposted by David Herdson
This is exactly what the recent Trump-BBC 'scandal' was designed to achieve. The BBC is now self-censoring criticisms of Trump in the name of "impartiality"
I wish I didn’t have to share this. But the BBC has decided to censor my first Reith Lecture.
They deleted the line in which I describe Donald Trump as “the most openly corrupt president in American history.” /1
They deleted the line in which I describe Donald Trump as “the most openly corrupt president in American history.” /1
November 25, 2025 at 10:26 AM
This is exactly what the recent Trump-BBC 'scandal' was designed to achieve. The BBC is now self-censoring criticisms of Trump in the name of "impartiality"
Reposted by David Herdson
Disbanding DOGE is likely the best and most efficient action taken by the Trump administration
November 25, 2025 at 10:51 AM
Disbanding DOGE is likely the best and most efficient action taken by the Trump administration
Reposted by David Herdson
This is extremely unfortunate to say the least. Not sure how I would have reacted to having my Reith lectures censored - the world has changed in an ill way in the two years since.
I wish I didn’t have to share this. But the BBC has decided to censor my first Reith Lecture.
They deleted the line in which I describe Donald Trump as “the most openly corrupt president in American history.” /1
They deleted the line in which I describe Donald Trump as “the most openly corrupt president in American history.” /1
November 25, 2025 at 10:39 AM
This is extremely unfortunate to say the least. Not sure how I would have reacted to having my Reith lectures censored - the world has changed in an ill way in the two years since.
To which publishers should say "bring it on".
Personally, I don't hold much store in unprovable claims from the 1970s as being relevant to today. I'm much more concerned about what Farage is doing and saying now than then.
But even were he to win an action, the evidence given would be damaging.
Personally, I don't hold much store in unprovable claims from the 1970s as being relevant to today. I'm much more concerned about what Farage is doing and saying now than then.
But even were he to win an action, the evidence given would be damaging.
Reform Party threatened legal action for critical news stories
www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
Reform’s ‘Trumpian’ legal threats hint at more aggressive approach to media
Ultimatums sent to publications appear to intensify as Nigel Farage’s party rises in polls
www.theguardian.com
November 25, 2025 at 9:47 AM
To which publishers should say "bring it on".
Personally, I don't hold much store in unprovable claims from the 1970s as being relevant to today. I'm much more concerned about what Farage is doing and saying now than then.
But even were he to win an action, the evidence given would be damaging.
Personally, I don't hold much store in unprovable claims from the 1970s as being relevant to today. I'm much more concerned about what Farage is doing and saying now than then.
But even were he to win an action, the evidence given would be damaging.
Trevor Philips is now a useful idiot for the far right.
They will love the fact that a black man with a real history of knowledge in the subject is endorsing them. He is their human shield against (very legitimate) charges of racism and contempt for the rule of law.
They will love the fact that a black man with a real history of knowledge in the subject is endorsing them. He is their human shield against (very legitimate) charges of racism and contempt for the rule of law.
Trevor Philips in the Times, calling for a Trump/Miller-style of random deportations based on skin colour.
archive.ph/RlXPj
archive.ph/RlXPj
November 25, 2025 at 7:48 AM
Trevor Philips is now a useful idiot for the far right.
They will love the fact that a black man with a real history of knowledge in the subject is endorsing them. He is their human shield against (very legitimate) charges of racism and contempt for the rule of law.
They will love the fact that a black man with a real history of knowledge in the subject is endorsing them. He is their human shield against (very legitimate) charges of racism and contempt for the rule of law.
Reposted by David Herdson
All Reeves' choices are bad.
Unfortunately, over and over again Labour is choosing the "least unpopular" options rather than "least bad".
Anything that comes after this government will be worse. Foolish parties offering easy solutions to intractable problems
/1
Unfortunately, over and over again Labour is choosing the "least unpopular" options rather than "least bad".
Anything that comes after this government will be worse. Foolish parties offering easy solutions to intractable problems
/1
November 25, 2025 at 7:35 AM
All Reeves' choices are bad.
Unfortunately, over and over again Labour is choosing the "least unpopular" options rather than "least bad".
Anything that comes after this government will be worse. Foolish parties offering easy solutions to intractable problems
/1
Unfortunately, over and over again Labour is choosing the "least unpopular" options rather than "least bad".
Anything that comes after this government will be worse. Foolish parties offering easy solutions to intractable problems
/1
In light of the BBC parliamentary hearing yesterday, I thought I'd repost this.
Obviously, he hasn't. TACO.
Obviously, he hasn't. TACO.
So, has Trump sued the BBC yet?
November 25, 2025 at 7:12 AM
In light of the BBC parliamentary hearing yesterday, I thought I'd repost this.
Obviously, he hasn't. TACO.
Obviously, he hasn't. TACO.
At some point the British public are going to have to treat the Greens seriously.
And when they do, they'll see they're not.
And when they do, they'll see they're not.
I have read Zack Polanski's interview with Laura K. Good grief docs.google.com/document/d/1...
November 25, 2025 at 4:22 AM
At some point the British public are going to have to treat the Greens seriously.
And when they do, they'll see they're not.
And when they do, they'll see they're not.