It's true that in the past, NR (or FN as they were) have flattered to deceive in the polls, regularly underperforming their share in actual elections - and sometimes declining pre-election under campaign dynamics.

That may happen again - or it may not. Times are changing.

Did I miss the 2025 general election?

It might not matter for the core Reform vote but that's only 10-15%.

If combined with a Tory resurgence, internal divisions may well be taken seriously by voters once they start looking more closely.

I disagree. He wants the Nobel Peace Prize, thinks that 'ending' the war is the best bet for it, and that the fastest route to that is siding with the strong against the weak.

Two secondary but reinforcing points: he already hated Ukraine and admired Putin; and he wants to reopen trade with Russia.

There are obviously counter-examples from UK history: Labour surpassing the Liberals; the SNP first passing the Tories into the top two, then Labour into first; SF/DUP replacing SDLP/UUP.

Maybe these all had special circumstances but then so will the future. Or as it happens, the present.

Labour does have the benefit of incumbency, both in office and as the established primary party of the left, certainly, but these things can change and 3+ years is a long time.

We did (although it nearly happened in 2019 too, without a general election; there might have been special circumstances then but such disruption always needs something a bit exceptional).

But I was asked for a realistic scenario, not a most-likely one.

We need to be more open in our thinking of what's possible. The electorate is more transactional than ever and less tied to identity. What's happened to the Tories on the right could happen to Labour on the left.

The notion of Reform having displaced the Tories would have seemed absurd 4 years ago.

Several.

1. Reform collapses in infighting / scandal; Tories recover under a new leader;
2. Labour continues to upset its base, Greens gain zeitgeist on left;
3. As (2) but Lib Dems replace Davey and leapfrog Lab in centre.

Labour is still the most likely non-Con/Ref option but it's not a given.

Although you do still have to be the main alternative to "the other bloke".

At the moment, Labour is maybe no more than 60% likely to be in that position on the centre/left come 2028/29.

It matters if he thinks and says those things now. What people might have done in the 1970s is, at best, very much background information. Not irrelevant but also not something to get overly distracted about.

Concentrate on the present. There's enough to go at.

Particularly now. More so than before.

I'm a big fan of tidal though again there's Green ambivalence. I'm more doubtful about hydro, which we don't have great geography for; interconnectors add resilience internationally but not domestically.

Nuclear, however, provides reliable baseload. It's a part of the answer.