Daniel McDowell
@danielmcdowell.bsky.social
Family man | Professor @Syracuse | Sr. Fellow @Atlantic Council | Fmr. China Fellow @TheWilsonCenter | Geoeconomics, Finance, & Cleveland sports | www.danielmcdowell.org
Pinned
It was only a "historic correction" for those who got in between January 19 and January 29. For everyone else, there was no correction.
February 16, 2026 at 3:16 PM
It was only a "historic correction" for those who got in between January 19 and January 29. For everyone else, there was no correction.
"Dad, what was it like to watch Bob Costas, Marv Albert, Hannah Storm, and the entire 1990s NBA on NBC team?"
a man in a suit and tie is pointing his finger
ALT: a man in a suit and tie is pointing his finger
media.tenor.com
February 16, 2026 at 3:06 PM
"Dad, what was it like to watch Bob Costas, Marv Albert, Hannah Storm, and the entire 1990s NBA on NBC team?"
Reposted by Daniel McDowell
Totally agree. I also add, having flown high performance aircraft, that all systems fail, with 100% certainty, at some point.
Resilience requires the ability to anticipate failures, recognize when they occur, pivot flexibly around them, and deconstruct how they occurred to prevent future problems.
Resilience requires the ability to anticipate failures, recognize when they occur, pivot flexibly around them, and deconstruct how they occurred to prevent future problems.
February 16, 2026 at 2:55 PM
Totally agree. I also add, having flown high performance aircraft, that all systems fail, with 100% certainty, at some point.
Resilience requires the ability to anticipate failures, recognize when they occur, pivot flexibly around them, and deconstruct how they occurred to prevent future problems.
Resilience requires the ability to anticipate failures, recognize when they occur, pivot flexibly around them, and deconstruct how they occurred to prevent future problems.
I tell my students that one of the main reasons not to over-rely on AI for research/writing is because--at some point in the future--you're going to have a face-to-face conversation with someone who matters, and if you don't actually know some things, that interaction will not go well for you.
February 16, 2026 at 2:50 PM
I tell my students that one of the main reasons not to over-rely on AI for research/writing is because--at some point in the future--you're going to have a face-to-face conversation with someone who matters, and if you don't actually know some things, that interaction will not go well for you.
We all agree that when the inevitable movie about the early days of AI is made in ten years or so, Matthew Rhys is automatically slotted into the Dario Amodei role, right?
February 16, 2026 at 2:44 PM
We all agree that when the inevitable movie about the early days of AI is made in ten years or so, Matthew Rhys is automatically slotted into the Dario Amodei role, right?
When "Always Be My Baby" plays at the coffee shop.
bart simpson wearing headphones in front of a radio
ALT: bart simpson wearing headphones in front of a radio
media.tenor.com
February 13, 2026 at 3:56 PM
When "Always Be My Baby" plays at the coffee shop.
Another day, another round of Chinese monetary saber rattling. Top economists are arguing that now, with the dollar looking weak and untrustworthy, China should seize the moment, relax capital controls, & unleash the yuan.
A few quick thoughts 1/
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
A few quick thoughts 1/
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
China Economists Urge Looser Capital Controls as Dollar Wobbles
Several prominent Chinese economists have called for loosening restrictions on the movement of money in and out of the country, arguing that a weaker dollar provides a historic opportunity to boost th...
www.bloomberg.com
February 12, 2026 at 3:05 PM
Another day, another round of Chinese monetary saber rattling. Top economists are arguing that now, with the dollar looking weak and untrustworthy, China should seize the moment, relax capital controls, & unleash the yuan.
A few quick thoughts 1/
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
A few quick thoughts 1/
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Our woodburning fireplaces are our family's winter therapy. I couldn't imagine surviving the season without them. There is nothing like a real fire.
www.wsj.com/real-estate/...
www.wsj.com/real-estate/...
Why the Traditional Wood-Burning Fireplace Is Facing Extinction
Homeowners still love a crackling, cozy fire. But environmental concerns, construction barriers and the lack of skills needed to build them are turning wood-burners into a ‘vanishing art.’
www.wsj.com
February 12, 2026 at 1:10 PM
Our woodburning fireplaces are our family's winter therapy. I couldn't imagine surviving the season without them. There is nothing like a real fire.
www.wsj.com/real-estate/...
www.wsj.com/real-estate/...
Mine was white, but this was my first set of wheels. The fuel economy was so much worse than what this ad suggests.
February 11, 2026 at 12:26 AM
Mine was white, but this was my first set of wheels. The fuel economy was so much worse than what this ad suggests.
With apologies to Amy Poehler, *this* was a "Good Hang", with Josh Lipsky and Jessie Yin.
We discuss:
- What's going on with USD?
- Will the euro or won't it?
- The Warsh-dollar bounce
...and lots more.
www.atlanticcouncil.org/commentary/p...
We discuss:
- What's going on with USD?
- Will the euro or won't it?
- The Warsh-dollar bounce
...and lots more.
www.atlanticcouncil.org/commentary/p...
Is a dollar vibe shift under way?
This episode breaks down how the greenback impacts trade, investment, national security, and the average consumer, as we try to answer the question: is the dollar having a vibe shift?
www.atlanticcouncil.org
February 10, 2026 at 6:32 PM
With apologies to Amy Poehler, *this* was a "Good Hang", with Josh Lipsky and Jessie Yin.
We discuss:
- What's going on with USD?
- Will the euro or won't it?
- The Warsh-dollar bounce
...and lots more.
www.atlanticcouncil.org/commentary/p...
We discuss:
- What's going on with USD?
- Will the euro or won't it?
- The Warsh-dollar bounce
...and lots more.
www.atlanticcouncil.org/commentary/p...
Reposted by Daniel McDowell
Brutal chart from @noahbarkin.bsky.social and Gregor Williams. German exports to China grew for nearly two decades - and are now in free fall.
February 10, 2026 at 10:06 AM
Brutal chart from @noahbarkin.bsky.social and Gregor Williams. German exports to China grew for nearly two decades - and are now in free fall.
Reposted by Daniel McDowell
Marginal spending growth may be slowing, but the US remains the global consumer of last resort—overall retail sales were still up 4% year-over-year in 2025, and import volumes have gone from strength to strength despite the White House's attempts to wreak havoc.
February 10, 2026 at 3:22 PM
Marginal spending growth may be slowing, but the US remains the global consumer of last resort—overall retail sales were still up 4% year-over-year in 2025, and import volumes have gone from strength to strength despite the White House's attempts to wreak havoc.
It shocks me to say this, and I reserve my right to retract this statement at any point in the future and as soon as tomorrow but: it is fun having this guy on my team.
February 10, 2026 at 3:11 PM
It shocks me to say this, and I reserve my right to retract this statement at any point in the future and as soon as tomorrow but: it is fun having this guy on my team.
Reposted by Daniel McDowell
No, this is unacceptable. Get your problem set done -- Olympic medals can wait.
Uhhh. Yes. You can have the extension to (checks notes) COMPETE AT THE OLYMPICS www.nbclosangeles.com/olympics/202...
Figure skater asks professor for extension on assignment: 'I was competing in the Olympics'
Madeline Schizas missed the deadline for an assignment because she was competing at the 2026 Milan Cortina Olympics.
www.nbclosangeles.com
February 10, 2026 at 3:06 PM
No, this is unacceptable. Get your problem set done -- Olympic medals can wait.
Reposted by Daniel McDowell
Some brutal charts in the new Rhodium Group note, updating their previous research on Germany and China Shock 2.0
Food for thought ahead of Merz's trip to China in 2 weeks.
Food for thought ahead of Merz's trip to China in 2 weeks.
February 10, 2026 at 12:37 PM
Some brutal charts in the new Rhodium Group note, updating their previous research on Germany and China Shock 2.0
Food for thought ahead of Merz's trip to China in 2 weeks.
Food for thought ahead of Merz's trip to China in 2 weeks.
Reposted by Daniel McDowell
As @michaelpettis.bsky.social says at least 1x per week, China cannot maintain a direct or indirect export surplus and also avoid acquiring some non-RMB asset. If not USTs, then something else, and if not USD denominated then -> ⬆️ deficits in other countries -> ⬆️ protectionist policy there.
More anti-dollar guidance & rhetoric from Chinese officials, this one instructing state-owned banks to curtail US Treasury purchases, citing risks of overdependence on market prone to sharp swings
I'm sure these concerns are legitimate, but this is also about feeding the de-dollarization narrative
I'm sure these concerns are legitimate, but this is also about feeding the de-dollarization narrative
February 9, 2026 at 11:49 PM
As @michaelpettis.bsky.social says at least 1x per week, China cannot maintain a direct or indirect export surplus and also avoid acquiring some non-RMB asset. If not USTs, then something else, and if not USD denominated then -> ⬆️ deficits in other countries -> ⬆️ protectionist policy there.
LOL
A+ post
A+ post
February 9, 2026 at 8:04 PM
LOL
A+ post
A+ post
More anti-dollar guidance & rhetoric from Chinese officials, this one instructing state-owned banks to curtail US Treasury purchases, citing risks of overdependence on market prone to sharp swings
I'm sure these concerns are legitimate, but this is also about feeding the de-dollarization narrative
I'm sure these concerns are legitimate, but this is also about feeding the de-dollarization narrative
February 9, 2026 at 6:55 PM
More anti-dollar guidance & rhetoric from Chinese officials, this one instructing state-owned banks to curtail US Treasury purchases, citing risks of overdependence on market prone to sharp swings
I'm sure these concerns are legitimate, but this is also about feeding the de-dollarization narrative
I'm sure these concerns are legitimate, but this is also about feeding the de-dollarization narrative
Reposted by Daniel McDowell
Speaking of cheap books that can fit in your pocket ....
(If you're not interested in Russian politics, there are more than 750 other Very Short Introductions)
www.nytimes.com/2026/02/06/b...
(If you're not interested in Russian politics, there are more than 750 other Very Short Introductions)
www.nytimes.com/2026/02/06/b...
February 7, 2026 at 9:11 PM
Speaking of cheap books that can fit in your pocket ....
(If you're not interested in Russian politics, there are more than 750 other Very Short Introductions)
www.nytimes.com/2026/02/06/b...
(If you're not interested in Russian politics, there are more than 750 other Very Short Introductions)
www.nytimes.com/2026/02/06/b...
Ice dancing: the rhythmic gymnastics of the Winter Olympics.
February 7, 2026 at 9:55 PM
Ice dancing: the rhythmic gymnastics of the Winter Olympics.
Reposted by Daniel McDowell
The shift in NBC's Olympic coverage model from broadcast to on-demand replays of particular events through the Peacock app is symptomatic of the atomization of formerly collective experience borne of hyperindividualism and demand for immediate satiation, splintering the commonweal. In this essay I w
February 7, 2026 at 6:01 PM
The shift in NBC's Olympic coverage model from broadcast to on-demand replays of particular events through the Peacock app is symptomatic of the atomization of formerly collective experience borne of hyperindividualism and demand for immediate satiation, splintering the commonweal. In this essay I w
Reposted by Daniel McDowell
Just checking in on American Bitcoin, the Eric Trump venture that is a leveraged bet on Bitcoin.
February 6, 2026 at 12:20 PM
Just checking in on American Bitcoin, the Eric Trump venture that is a leveraged bet on Bitcoin.
Quite literally the $64,000 question: Should you buy Bitcoin? 😄
February 6, 2026 at 2:14 AM
Quite literally the $64,000 question: Should you buy Bitcoin? 😄
Reposted by Daniel McDowell
Bitcoin price plunge makes it interesting to see how this affects Tether’s ability to redeem its stable coins for dollars although I assume they’ve also been shifting into gold … their ability to guarantee 1:1 on demand seems to have been grounded in the value of their crypto holdings.
February 6, 2026 at 12:10 AM
Bitcoin price plunge makes it interesting to see how this affects Tether’s ability to redeem its stable coins for dollars although I assume they’ve also been shifting into gold … their ability to guarantee 1:1 on demand seems to have been grounded in the value of their crypto holdings.
Reposted by Daniel McDowell
Assigning this gem by @mcopelov.bsky.social & @tompepinsky.com to my grad class. Sold on the title alone.
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
February 6, 2026 at 12:38 AM
Assigning this gem by @mcopelov.bsky.social & @tompepinsky.com to my grad class. Sold on the title alone.
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....