Daniel McDowell
@danielmcdowell.bsky.social
Family man | Professor @Syracuse | Sr. Fellow @Atlantic Council | Fmr. China Fellow @TheWilsonCenter | Geoeconomics, Finance, & Cleveland sports | www.danielmcdowell.org
Pinned
Cheers to you, Matt, on this new chapter!
February 13, 2026 at 4:05 PM
Cheers to you, Matt, on this new chapter!
When "Always Be My Baby" plays at the coffee shop.
bart simpson wearing headphones in front of a radio
ALT: bart simpson wearing headphones in front of a radio
media.tenor.com
February 13, 2026 at 3:56 PM
When "Always Be My Baby" plays at the coffee shop.
Will China's leadership respond to arguments like this with even modest financial liberalization? It will be fascinating to see.
PBOC Gov Pan has talked a strong RMBI game in the last year, but the ultimate choice isn't his.
FIN
www.reuters.com/markets/curr...
PBOC Gov Pan has talked a strong RMBI game in the last year, but the ultimate choice isn't his.
FIN
www.reuters.com/markets/curr...
China talks up digital yuan in push for multi-polar currency system
The head of China's central bank pledged to expand the international use of the digital yuan and called for the development of a multi-polar global currency system, where several currencies dominate t...
www.reuters.com
February 12, 2026 at 3:09 PM
Will China's leadership respond to arguments like this with even modest financial liberalization? It will be fascinating to see.
PBOC Gov Pan has talked a strong RMBI game in the last year, but the ultimate choice isn't his.
FIN
www.reuters.com/markets/curr...
PBOC Gov Pan has talked a strong RMBI game in the last year, but the ultimate choice isn't his.
FIN
www.reuters.com/markets/curr...
This is not an unreasonable argument. 2009-2013 was a period of growing int'l use for the RMB, which also happened to be a period of dollar weakness and expectations of RMB appreciation.
(selections from a 2015 paper co-authored with Steven Liao)
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(selections from a 2015 paper co-authored with Steven Liao)
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February 12, 2026 at 3:09 PM
This is not an unreasonable argument. 2009-2013 was a period of growing int'l use for the RMB, which also happened to be a period of dollar weakness and expectations of RMB appreciation.
(selections from a 2015 paper co-authored with Steven Liao)
10/
(selections from a 2015 paper co-authored with Steven Liao)
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Presently, the pro-RMBI camp isn't using dollar weaponization to justify their position, but rather pointing to expectations of dollar weakness, RMB strength, and rising geopolitical risk to push their case. (screenshots from the Bloomberg story)
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February 12, 2026 at 3:08 PM
Presently, the pro-RMBI camp isn't using dollar weaponization to justify their position, but rather pointing to expectations of dollar weakness, RMB strength, and rising geopolitical risk to push their case. (screenshots from the Bloomberg story)
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Even though we did not witness dramatic financial reforms post-2018, China did lean in to using its currency and its banks in dealings with sanctioned economies. So, to some extent, these arguments may have broken through at the highest levels.
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February 12, 2026 at 3:08 PM
Even though we did not witness dramatic financial reforms post-2018, China did lean in to using its currency and its banks in dealings with sanctioned economies. So, to some extent, these arguments may have broken through at the highest levels.
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Economist Yu Yongding made a similar argument in 2018 (see below, from my book).
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February 12, 2026 at 3:08 PM
Economist Yu Yongding made a similar argument in 2018 (see below, from my book).
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For example, in 2018, Xiaolian Hu, deputy governor of the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), pointed out that US sanctions had pushed some international financial activity away from the dollar and challenged her country to “seize this opportunity and take advantage of it.”
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February 12, 2026 at 3:07 PM
For example, in 2018, Xiaolian Hu, deputy governor of the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), pointed out that US sanctions had pushed some international financial activity away from the dollar and challenged her country to “seize this opportunity and take advantage of it.”
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Back in 2018, when Trump reimposed secondary sanctions on Iran after withdrawing from the JCPOA, many countries complained openly about dollar dominance. Pro-RMBI elites in China took notice, and--like today--Called for China to capitalize.
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February 12, 2026 at 3:07 PM
Back in 2018, when Trump reimposed secondary sanctions on Iran after withdrawing from the JCPOA, many countries complained openly about dollar dominance. Pro-RMBI elites in China took notice, and--like today--Called for China to capitalize.
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That change has, in my view, given those arguing in favor of RMBI a stronger position from which to argue their position. It's not just an economic imperative, but a strategic one as well.
Moments like these create an ideal opening for arguing their case.
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Moments like these create an ideal opening for arguing their case.
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February 12, 2026 at 3:07 PM
That change has, in my view, given those arguing in favor of RMBI a stronger position from which to argue their position. It's not just an economic imperative, but a strategic one as well.
Moments like these create an ideal opening for arguing their case.
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Moments like these create an ideal opening for arguing their case.
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The contours of the internal debate have changed in recent years, however. Once a topic in technocratic finance circles, RMBI is now a major strategic issue for China. Promoting int'l use of its currency is a path toward econ self-sufficiency, protection against US coercion
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February 12, 2026 at 3:07 PM
The contours of the internal debate have changed in recent years, however. Once a topic in technocratic finance circles, RMBI is now a major strategic issue for China. Promoting int'l use of its currency is a path toward econ self-sufficiency, protection against US coercion
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There have been internal political squabbles over renminbi internationalization (RMBI) dating back to the late-aughts. Here's a snippet from a paper I published with David Steinberg on RMBI back in 2017 that broadly summarizes the political cleavages.
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February 12, 2026 at 3:06 PM
There have been internal political squabbles over renminbi internationalization (RMBI) dating back to the late-aughts. Here's a snippet from a paper I published with David Steinberg on RMBI back in 2017 that broadly summarizes the political cleavages.
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Another day, another round of Chinese monetary saber rattling. Top economists are arguing that now, with the dollar looking weak and untrustworthy, China should seize the moment, relax capital controls, & unleash the yuan.
A few quick thoughts 1/
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
A few quick thoughts 1/
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
China Economists Urge Looser Capital Controls as Dollar Wobbles
Several prominent Chinese economists have called for loosening restrictions on the movement of money in and out of the country, arguing that a weaker dollar provides a historic opportunity to boost th...
www.bloomberg.com
February 12, 2026 at 3:05 PM
Another day, another round of Chinese monetary saber rattling. Top economists are arguing that now, with the dollar looking weak and untrustworthy, China should seize the moment, relax capital controls, & unleash the yuan.
A few quick thoughts 1/
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
A few quick thoughts 1/
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
A manual sunroof! Roll the windows down, pop that up, and that was your AC!
A very fun car.
A very fun car.
February 12, 2026 at 1:15 PM
A manual sunroof! Roll the windows down, pop that up, and that was your AC!
A very fun car.
A very fun car.
Is there anything better than all of those tactile buttons, levers, and switches?!
February 12, 2026 at 1:14 PM
Is there anything better than all of those tactile buttons, levers, and switches?!
Love that imagery. I remember the feeling of those old, big cars, but it's been so long that I'm sure if I got behind the wheel today, I'd be more than a little rusty.
February 12, 2026 at 1:13 PM
Love that imagery. I remember the feeling of those old, big cars, but it's been so long that I'm sure if I got behind the wheel today, I'd be more than a little rusty.
Our woodburning fireplaces are our family's winter therapy. I couldn't imagine surviving the season without them. There is nothing like a real fire.
www.wsj.com/real-estate/...
www.wsj.com/real-estate/...
Why the Traditional Wood-Burning Fireplace Is Facing Extinction
Homeowners still love a crackling, cozy fire. But environmental concerns, construction barriers and the lack of skills needed to build them are turning wood-burners into a ‘vanishing art.’
www.wsj.com
February 12, 2026 at 1:10 PM
Our woodburning fireplaces are our family's winter therapy. I couldn't imagine surviving the season without them. There is nothing like a real fire.
www.wsj.com/real-estate/...
www.wsj.com/real-estate/...
That must have required a boat license to drive.
February 12, 2026 at 1:23 AM
That must have required a boat license to drive.
Wow, she's a real beauty, Mark! 🤣
How did you manage with a broken speedometer? Did you take manual readings by counting the time between telephone poles or something!?
How did you manage with a broken speedometer? Did you take manual readings by counting the time between telephone poles or something!?
February 11, 2026 at 9:46 PM
Wow, she's a real beauty, Mark! 🤣
How did you manage with a broken speedometer? Did you take manual readings by counting the time between telephone poles or something!?
How did you manage with a broken speedometer? Did you take manual readings by counting the time between telephone poles or something!?
you're super close. It was 14/19 if my memory is right.
February 11, 2026 at 1:38 AM
you're super close. It was 14/19 if my memory is right.
Mine was white, but this was my first set of wheels. The fuel economy was so much worse than what this ad suggests.
February 11, 2026 at 12:26 AM
Mine was white, but this was my first set of wheels. The fuel economy was so much worse than what this ad suggests.
With apologies to Amy Poehler, *this* was a "Good Hang", with Josh Lipsky and Jessie Yin.
We discuss:
- What's going on with USD?
- Will the euro or won't it?
- The Warsh-dollar bounce
...and lots more.
www.atlanticcouncil.org/commentary/p...
We discuss:
- What's going on with USD?
- Will the euro or won't it?
- The Warsh-dollar bounce
...and lots more.
www.atlanticcouncil.org/commentary/p...
Is a dollar vibe shift under way?
This episode breaks down how the greenback impacts trade, investment, national security, and the average consumer, as we try to answer the question: is the dollar having a vibe shift?
www.atlanticcouncil.org
February 10, 2026 at 6:32 PM
With apologies to Amy Poehler, *this* was a "Good Hang", with Josh Lipsky and Jessie Yin.
We discuss:
- What's going on with USD?
- Will the euro or won't it?
- The Warsh-dollar bounce
...and lots more.
www.atlanticcouncil.org/commentary/p...
We discuss:
- What's going on with USD?
- Will the euro or won't it?
- The Warsh-dollar bounce
...and lots more.
www.atlanticcouncil.org/commentary/p...
Reposted by Daniel McDowell
Brutal chart from @noahbarkin.bsky.social and Gregor Williams. German exports to China grew for nearly two decades - and are now in free fall.
February 10, 2026 at 10:06 AM
Brutal chart from @noahbarkin.bsky.social and Gregor Williams. German exports to China grew for nearly two decades - and are now in free fall.