Conor Sewell
@ccsewell.bsky.social
Associate Director at Flint Global. Macro, financial services, digital assets. Views my own. Ex-BoE, Treasury. Labour member, big on sports, rugby referee. Bi and autistic.
Once again, an illustration that the political debate on migration in the UK is completely detached from reality
November 27, 2025 at 10:09 AM
Once again, an illustration that the political debate on migration in the UK is completely detached from reality
The PR campaign on this feels likes it’s going to end up as VAT on private school fees 2: Tax harder
‘I don’t live in a mansion. It’s a 1930s house’: Richmond residents react to council tax rise
‘I don’t live in a mansion. It’s a 1930s house’: Richmond residents react to council tax rise
Rachel Reeves’s new council tax surcharge on homes worth £2m or more earns mixed reception in well-heeled London borough
www.theguardian.com
November 27, 2025 at 6:56 AM
The PR campaign on this feels likes it’s going to end up as VAT on private school fees 2: Tax harder
Labour finally remembered who makes up their Bluesky Defence Force
Lol congratulations to whoever briefed that the chancellor was going to axe Cycle to Work, then didn't. Whatever was going on behind the scenes, you've just done wonders for London's bike shops pre-Christmas.
If my group chats are anything to go by, Treasury briefing "we're going to end the cycle to work tax break that enables people to buy a large family-sized e-bike" has done more than any other advertising campaign to boost the uptake of family-sized e-bikes. Sales must be through the roof this week.
November 26, 2025 at 3:55 PM
Labour finally remembered who makes up their Bluesky Defence Force
Today’s fun observation from the Budget speech:
3 mentions for Leeds, none for London and Manchester.
It’s who you know.
3 mentions for Leeds, none for London and Manchester.
It’s who you know.
November 26, 2025 at 3:51 PM
Today’s fun observation from the Budget speech:
3 mentions for Leeds, none for London and Manchester.
It’s who you know.
3 mentions for Leeds, none for London and Manchester.
It’s who you know.
I do want to be fair to Reeves.
Abolishing the two-child cap is one of the most positive decisions for tackling poverty in this country which any government has taken for a long time.
Abolishing the two-child cap is one of the most positive decisions for tackling poverty in this country which any government has taken for a long time.
November 26, 2025 at 1:31 PM
I do want to be fair to Reeves.
Abolishing the two-child cap is one of the most positive decisions for tackling poverty in this country which any government has taken for a long time.
Abolishing the two-child cap is one of the most positive decisions for tackling poverty in this country which any government has taken for a long time.
Reposted by Conor Sewell
"having changed my mind about the OBR, my internship there has begun smoothly"
November 26, 2025 at 12:28 PM
"having changed my mind about the OBR, my internship there has begun smoothly"
It’s worth noting that on the figures from earlier today - which seem very credible to me - the lost tax revenue as a result of Brexit could have covered the forecast downgrade and all new spending commitments more than twice over.
November 26, 2025 at 1:18 PM
It’s worth noting that on the figures from earlier today - which seem very credible to me - the lost tax revenue as a result of Brexit could have covered the forecast downgrade and all new spending commitments more than twice over.
Folks, you can take a break from live posting this.
It’s like “live tweeting” Match of the Day.
It’s like “live tweeting” Match of the Day.
November 26, 2025 at 12:42 PM
Folks, you can take a break from live posting this.
It’s like “live tweeting” Match of the Day.
It’s like “live tweeting” Match of the Day.
This is possibly the sassiest I've ever seen the OBR be
November 26, 2025 at 12:35 PM
This is possibly the sassiest I've ever seen the OBR be
Looks like OBR reform is back on the menu boys
November 26, 2025 at 12:19 PM
Looks like OBR reform is back on the menu boys
Reposted by Conor Sewell
This year's budget
• Mansion tax being introduced at £2bn
• Temporary cut to energy prices as treasury will pay some "policy costs"
• Two child cap abolished
• Tax thresholds frozen
• MILEAGE BASED CHARGE ON ELECTRIC CARS (fuel duty freeze kept, again, for now)
• NIC changes to pension contributions
• Mansion tax being introduced at £2bn
• Temporary cut to energy prices as treasury will pay some "policy costs"
• Two child cap abolished
• Tax thresholds frozen
• MILEAGE BASED CHARGE ON ELECTRIC CARS (fuel duty freeze kept, again, for now)
• NIC changes to pension contributions
November 26, 2025 at 12:16 PM
This year's budget
• Mansion tax being introduced at £2bn
• Temporary cut to energy prices as treasury will pay some "policy costs"
• Two child cap abolished
• Tax thresholds frozen
• MILEAGE BASED CHARGE ON ELECTRIC CARS (fuel duty freeze kept, again, for now)
• NIC changes to pension contributions
• Mansion tax being introduced at £2bn
• Temporary cut to energy prices as treasury will pay some "policy costs"
• Two child cap abolished
• Tax thresholds frozen
• MILEAGE BASED CHARGE ON ELECTRIC CARS (fuel duty freeze kept, again, for now)
• NIC changes to pension contributions
Reposted by Conor Sewell
With apologies to the poor person at the OBR who accidentally hit upload...
Key public finance story: smaller OBR downgrade than expected, more borrowing in the short term (extra spending, mostly unanticipated), less borrowing in the medium term (as tax rises kick in).
Key public finance story: smaller OBR downgrade than expected, more borrowing in the short term (extra spending, mostly unanticipated), less borrowing in the medium term (as tax rises kick in).
November 26, 2025 at 12:13 PM
With apologies to the poor person at the OBR who accidentally hit upload...
Key public finance story: smaller OBR downgrade than expected, more borrowing in the short term (extra spending, mostly unanticipated), less borrowing in the medium term (as tax rises kick in).
Key public finance story: smaller OBR downgrade than expected, more borrowing in the short term (extra spending, mostly unanticipated), less borrowing in the medium term (as tax rises kick in).
This is one of the most astonishing fuckups I have ever seen from a government body.
Unbelievable.
Unbelievable.
BREAKING The entire Budget has leaked early
- £22BN of headroom
- £26bn tax rises
- Freeze on tax thresholds
- Pay per mileage confirmed
- Changes to capital gains
- £22BN of headroom
- £26bn tax rises
- Freeze on tax thresholds
- Pay per mileage confirmed
- Changes to capital gains
November 26, 2025 at 12:13 PM
This is one of the most astonishing fuckups I have ever seen from a government body.
Unbelievable.
Unbelievable.
Not to go full FBPE, but it is astonishing how little discussed the fact is that rejoining the EU would be by far the single most positive economic and fiscal action any government could take
The UK is losing up to £250m a day in lost tax revenue due to the economic impact of Brexit, House of Commons Library analysis for the Lib Dems suggests.
Brexit has blown a "black hole of [up to] £90 billion a year in the public finances" the party says. Even under lower estimates the hit is ~£65bn
Brexit has blown a "black hole of [up to] £90 billion a year in the public finances" the party says. Even under lower estimates the hit is ~£65bn
November 25, 2025 at 6:19 PM
Not to go full FBPE, but it is astonishing how little discussed the fact is that rejoining the EU would be by far the single most positive economic and fiscal action any government could take
This is not “making difficult decisions”. This is not “prioritising growth and investment”.
This is governing like you have a 10 seat majority rather than 170 seats.
This is governing like you have a 10 seat majority rather than 170 seats.
When can you declare an emergency over?
The 5p “emergency” petrol tax cut was introduced in March 2022, to offset a spike in prices
They are now about 30p down on that month, & about 50p down on the absolute peak
The 5p “emergency” petrol tax cut was introduced in March 2022, to offset a spike in prices
They are now about 30p down on that month, & about 50p down on the absolute peak
November 25, 2025 at 5:35 PM
This is not “making difficult decisions”. This is not “prioritising growth and investment”.
This is governing like you have a 10 seat majority rather than 170 seats.
This is governing like you have a 10 seat majority rather than 170 seats.
Reposted by Conor Sewell
Britain's absolutely-impossible-extremely-difficult-no-good-options fiscal bind: latest
When can you declare an emergency over?
The 5p “emergency” petrol tax cut was introduced in March 2022, to offset a spike in prices
They are now about 30p down on that month, & about 50p down on the absolute peak
The 5p “emergency” petrol tax cut was introduced in March 2022, to offset a spike in prices
They are now about 30p down on that month, & about 50p down on the absolute peak
November 25, 2025 at 4:31 PM
Britain's absolutely-impossible-extremely-difficult-no-good-options fiscal bind: latest
So will this be the equivalent of the pasty tax?
You could probably make an excellent “metropolitan elite” map by doing regional polling on whether people care about lattes or pasties more…
You could probably make an excellent “metropolitan elite” map by doing regional polling on whether people care about lattes or pasties more…
November 25, 2025 at 12:09 PM
So will this be the equivalent of the pasty tax?
You could probably make an excellent “metropolitan elite” map by doing regional polling on whether people care about lattes or pasties more…
You could probably make an excellent “metropolitan elite” map by doing regional polling on whether people care about lattes or pasties more…
Reposted by Conor Sewell
My taxes bring all the boys to the yard.
And they're like "this is bad approach to fiscal policy".
And they're like "this is bad approach to fiscal policy".
November 25, 2025 at 11:55 AM
My taxes bring all the boys to the yard.
And they're like "this is bad approach to fiscal policy".
And they're like "this is bad approach to fiscal policy".
Reposted by Conor Sewell
Stephen Bush feels like a load bearing pillar of centre-left discourse at this point (complimentary)
November 24, 2025 at 2:23 PM
Stephen Bush feels like a load bearing pillar of centre-left discourse at this point (complimentary)
100%.
This is inheritance tax working exactly as intended as a tax on wealth.
The only two correct responses are “good” or “that sucks, have you heard about our land value tax?”
This is inheritance tax working exactly as intended as a tax on wealth.
The only two correct responses are “good” or “that sucks, have you heard about our land value tax?”
I don't think this was actually deliberately published as ragebait, but the entitlement contained within is remarkable and a classic example of the sort of sentiment governments sometimes just have to face down inews.co.uk/inews-lifest...?
We were hit with a £148k inheritance tax bill when mum died at 97 - it's disgusting
Jill Lemon has labelled inheritance tax as 'cruel', 'horrible' and 'unfair'
inews.co.uk
November 24, 2025 at 10:29 AM
100%.
This is inheritance tax working exactly as intended as a tax on wealth.
The only two correct responses are “good” or “that sucks, have you heard about our land value tax?”
This is inheritance tax working exactly as intended as a tax on wealth.
The only two correct responses are “good” or “that sucks, have you heard about our land value tax?”
I cannot remember the last time my jaw dropped this much at a political quote
A reporter asks if Mamdani stands by calling Trump a fascist. Mamdani starts to give a delicate answer.
Trump (smiles, pats Mamdani's arm): "That's OK, you can just say yes. It's easier. I don't mind."
Trump (smiles, pats Mamdani's arm): "That's OK, you can just say yes. It's easier. I don't mind."
November 21, 2025 at 9:32 PM
I cannot remember the last time my jaw dropped this much at a political quote
Reposted by Conor Sewell
That’s the IFS, surely. “They are gonna be mad when they get home in 2026-7”. The OBR is the slightly more retentive sibling who has provided a funnel in a belief this will make the scheme better.
November 21, 2025 at 2:15 PM
That’s the IFS, surely. “They are gonna be mad when they get home in 2026-7”. The OBR is the slightly more retentive sibling who has provided a funnel in a belief this will make the scheme better.
This piece is so damn good.
Particularly the way Marie so clearly draws out the connection between elite acceptance/appeasement of the far right on Twitter and in the real world.
This paragraph is a work of art.
Particularly the way Marie so clearly draws out the connection between elite acceptance/appeasement of the far right on Twitter and in the real world.
This paragraph is a work of art.
November 21, 2025 at 1:04 PM
This piece is so damn good.
Particularly the way Marie so clearly draws out the connection between elite acceptance/appeasement of the far right on Twitter and in the real world.
This paragraph is a work of art.
Particularly the way Marie so clearly draws out the connection between elite acceptance/appeasement of the far right on Twitter and in the real world.
This paragraph is a work of art.
England take four wickets, I tune in, they take no wickets, I tune out, Stokes takes five.
Guess I’m not watching the rest of the series then.
Guess I’m not watching the rest of the series then.
November 21, 2025 at 9:52 AM
England take four wickets, I tune in, they take no wickets, I tune out, Stokes takes five.
Guess I’m not watching the rest of the series then.
Guess I’m not watching the rest of the series then.