Alex Panchenko
banner
alexpanchenko2.bsky.social
Alex Panchenko
@alexpanchenko2.bsky.social
#Ukraine -based journo/analyst/etc. #Russia #HybridWar #CriticalThinking #factsmatter
Evolve or die.
Pinned
Welcome!
I expanded here from the original Twitter, where I've been under the SAME handle👇 for 11 years now.
Will be at both places for a while.

Sane adults need choice and B plans. Monopoly is bad. Monopoly of a drug addict treasonous oligarch is a danger to us all.
Simple economic truths about The War from a Swede-American who has spent years advising Ukraine governments and Western governments about Ukraine.
Why Europe has to act fast:
1. The more funding Europe gives Ukraine, the earlier the war can end with a Ukrainian victory.
2. Faster funding means less total cost.
3. It also means far less Ukrainian losses.
4. Which also cuts the reconstruction costs.
5. & safeguards democracy.
December 1, 2025 at 8:16 AM
Reposted by Alex Panchenko
Ukraine's current potential of domestic producers is estimated at about 10 million drones per year. Unmanned systems have evolved from auxiliary tools into a key element of contemporary combat operations.

KSE Institute Report kse.ua/about-the-sc...
From the Battlefield to the Future of Warfare: Harnessing Ukraine’s Drone Innovations to Advance U.S. Military Capabilities — KSE Institute Report
Kyiv School of Economics
kse.ua
December 1, 2025 at 6:20 AM
Hear out this Canadian.
Ask your government why they want to avoid helping Ukraine DEFEAT Russia IN Russia TODAY, knowing that failure to defeat the fascist regime means fighting Russia on our OWN territories TOMORROW.
The financial and human cost of fighting Moscow on our soil will be infinitely greater.
December 1, 2025 at 8:01 AM
OSINT map posted by @clementmolin.bsky.social on X illustrates one of the key ideas behind the Kremlin-Witkoff insidious "peace" plan: the US is to force Ukraine into withdrawing from, basically, a HUGE FORTRESS that Russia would otherwise storm for YEARS (losing 100000s of soldiers in the process).
December 1, 2025 at 7:53 AM
Yet another body-per-square-meter battlefield photo.

It's not some exceptional case. There are dozens of sectors in the frontline where Ukrainian land has been literally FERTILIZED with dead Russian stormtroopers, 5-10 miles deep.
November 30, 2025 at 9:45 PM
So bad was the Nov 29 night Russian airstrike that some neighborhoods / towns in Kyiv and Kyiv Region STILL suffer prolonged local power cuts (schedule or no schedule).

Some had experienced repeated emergency outages after the damage from the attack seemed to be remedied.
November 30, 2025 at 9:38 PM
Reposted by Alex Panchenko
If Russia wanted peace, they would stop killing Ukrainians.
If the US wanted peace, they would stop Russia.
November 30, 2025 at 6:33 PM
Yep, Steve Witkoff looked particularly sad at the beginning of US-Ukraine talks today.
The face of a man who realized Ukrainians are not going to sit by and watch as he sells them off to russia.
November 30, 2025 at 7:52 PM
Reposted by Alex Panchenko
This is necessary
November 30, 2025 at 7:32 PM
"Guarantee a bloodier and longer war".
Important conversation. But the conclusion understates the case. It is not that handing Russia the huge territory that contains Ukraine’s best defenses would “not necessarily” bring peace. It is that so doing would guarantee a bloodier and longer war.
www.theguardian.com/world/2025/n...
US deal must punish Russia war crimes, says Ukraine’s Nobel peace prize winner
Oleksandra Matviichuk warns any amnesty could encourage authoritarian leaders to attack their neighbours
www.theguardian.com
November 30, 2025 at 7:32 PM
Yet another first in world military history from Ukrainians: an unmanned UA ground vehicle successfully attacked a Russian armored personnel carrier with a heavy machine gun.

It's unclear if the UA unit had any VISIBLE lights on. If it did, Russians must've been careless in their last minutes.
November 30, 2025 at 4:19 PM
Turkiye's Foreign Ministry basically says Ankara is OK👍 with Friday night's Ukrainian sea drones' attack on two Russian tankers in the Black Sea off TUR coast.

In fact, Ankara doesn't even confirm that those drones were Ukrainian.
November 30, 2025 at 12:11 PM
I read Valeriy Zaluzhnyi's fresh [poorly-written] op-ed in LIGA.net so you don't have to.

Zelensky's potential political rival is VERY sceptical of the "peace talks"; doesn't see any viable security guarantees on the table so far; doesn't rule out ELECTIONS during a "long-term" freeze of The War.
November 30, 2025 at 11:55 AM
Reposted by Alex Panchenko
💥German Chancellor Friedrich Merz confirmed that Viktor Orbán travelled to Vladimir Putin without an EU mandate or consulting European leaders.

He added that Orbán’s last trip in 2024 wasn’t just a failure — it was followed by one of Russia’s most intense strikes.
November 30, 2025 at 11:39 AM
There are several issues with Ukraine's former High Commander Valeriy Zaluzhnyi as a wannabe politician.

Currently the worst issue: he writes (or has his staff write) lengthy and really GOOFY OP-EDS🤦‍♂️
Unlike servicemen, members of public are not obliged or eager to read everything Generals write.
November 30, 2025 at 11:15 AM
"Disgusting morality", "huge geopolitical risks" and "spectacularly stupid business": ACTUAL capitalist and US-British establishment figure @billbrowder.bsky.social on the Russia-Trump "peace plan" and Trump's petty cronies' pathetic attempts to profit on betraying Ukraine.
November 30, 2025 at 10:07 AM
China's involvement in The War deepens: Wang Dinghua, a Chinese drone parts supplier, apparently formally acquired a stake in its Russian client, Rustakt, IMMEDIATELY producing small OWA FPV drones widely used in the Russian invasion of Ukraine: scoop by @financialtimes.com .
November 30, 2025 at 6:47 AM
Oh but it IS a post-apocalyptic world for the handful of mostly-elderly locals who remain in these places or returned there.

Apocalypse has very much already OCCURED for them, and they've traumatically adapted to it. And they don't care that it hasn't for most of OTHER humans🤷‍♂️
Rodynske in Donetsk region today looks like a post-apocalyptic world.
November 29, 2025 at 8:02 PM
A War fact I probably haven't shared here before: microphones in consumer- and even journalism-grade devices (like smartphones and cameras) MUTE OUT the full volume of real explosions on airstrikes / battle videos you see a lot now, as they were designed to suppress volume peaks hazardous for ears.
November 29, 2025 at 7:43 PM
Reposted by Alex Panchenko
Polish PM Tusk reminded allies that NATO was founded to defend against Soviet/Russian aggression through solidarity, not selfish interests, expressing hope these principles remain unchanged.
November 29, 2025 at 6:51 PM
Reposted by Alex Panchenko
Congressional backlash to the Kremlin-designed 28-point proposal to end the war in Ukraine was significant.

But unless Congress starts passing legislation to mandate—not authorize—sanctions on Russia & military assistance to Ukraine, its role in all of this will remain marginal.
Trump’s latest Ukraine peace proposal sparks strong Republican reaction
Congress is clearly eager to help Trump force Russia to end its war in Ukraine. Capitalizing on the revised peace framework agreed by US and Ukrainian negotiators will now require action from both sid...
www.atlanticcouncil.org
November 29, 2025 at 6:15 PM
Last night's massive Russian airstrike left a gaping whole in place of someone's upper-middle class home in one of the Kyiv's most recognizable residential projects.

It appears nobody was hurt at this particular location.
November 29, 2025 at 4:17 PM
Reposted by Alex Panchenko
Time to ask: In whose interests is American foreign policy being conducted?
"By dangling multibillion-dollar rare-earth and energy deals, Moscow could reshape the economic map of Europe—while driving a wedge between America and its traditional allies"

Read this excellent @wsj.com account of the business deals behind the "peace"negotiations

www.wsj.com/world/russia...
Make Money Not War: Trump’s Real Plan for Peace in Ukraine
The Kremlin pitched the White House on peace through business. To Europe’s dismay, the president and his envoy are on board.
www.wsj.com
November 29, 2025 at 1:49 PM
Very much so.
It's never EVER been about the "plan" or about the "peace deal" for that matter.
Putin has compromised the United States in his efforts to demolish international law. This is the primary objective of the Witkoff/Dmitriev peace plan.

Françoise Thom decodes the points that have not received sufficient attention from Western observers ⤵️
desk-russie.info/2025/11/27/t...
The Witkoff/Dmitriev Peace Plan: Stupidity or Betrayal? • russian desk
Putin has just made one of his most cherished dreams come true: he has compromised the United States in his efforts to demolish international law. This is the
desk-russie.info
November 29, 2025 at 2:15 PM