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adamlbrown.bsky.social
Adam Brown
@adamlbrown.bsky.social
960 followers 290 following 4.9K posts
Economist, formerly a physicist. Head of UK Economic Policy & Modelling at Cambridge Econometrics. Visiting Researcher at Oxford Brookes Business School. Also interested in cricket, baseball and metal. Displaced Salopian. Vmo
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adamlbrown.bsky.social
Adam Brown @adamlbrown.bsky.social · Jul 2
A major new report published for anyone interested in #innovation, #productivity, #industrialstrategy, #econsky. I'll now do a short thread that pulls out the main findings and recommendations...
britishacademy.bsky.social
The British Academy @britishacademy.bsky.social · Jul 2
The British Academy and @sciencecampaign.bsky.social commissioned Cambridge Econometrics to conduct a systems-based analysis of the strengths and weaknesses within the UK’s innovation system.

Read the full report: www.thebritishacademy.ac.uk/publications...
resprofnews.bsky.social
Research Professional News @resprofnews.bsky.social · Jul 2
The UK needs many industrial strategies.

Smarter growth begins with understanding value chains in innovation, say Daniel Rathbone and Eleanor Hopkins.

www.researchprofessionalnews.com/rr-news-uk-v...
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adamlbrown.bsky.social
Adam Brown @adamlbrown.bsky.social · 10h
I enjoy it for lunch with broken walnuts or pine nuts, balsamic reduction, maybe some salt and chilli flakes. A sprinkling of flash fried chorizo cubes also works well if you're having it for tea
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adamlbrown.bsky.social
Adam Brown @adamlbrown.bsky.social · 18h
This graph is basically doing what I predicted in 2022: first you get the jump in commodities, then that feeds through to consumer prices, then that feeds through to wages. Real wages and profit margins fall, then catch up again.
adamlbrown.bsky.social
Adam Brown @adamlbrown.bsky.social · 21h
The ironic thing is that even 15 years ago at LSE, they didn't assign Aghion and Howitt, they assigned Nelson and Winter, because the theory is richer, the methods less tenuous, and the explanations more grounded in reality.
adamlbrown.bsky.social
Adam Brown @adamlbrown.bsky.social · 22h
the reason they "achieved so little" was because they spent their entire 15 years in office trying to govern from policy positions waaaay outside the zone of effective governance.
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adamlbrown.bsky.social
Adam Brown @adamlbrown.bsky.social · 22h
This was the Brexit switch that we all talked about at the time - after the debacle of austerity, the Tories had clearly lost the economic argument and with it the PMC vote, but saw an opportunity to pivot to being "the party of Brexit" and fight an election on a culture-war front - and it worked!
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adamlbrown.bsky.social
Adam Brown @adamlbrown.bsky.social · 1d
bsky.app/profile/czed...
Sorry but this is wrong. High tea is not and has never been a synonym for supper. Tea is a late afternoon meal, high tea is just a big tea. Supper is a late evening meal. totally different.
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adamlbrown.bsky.social
Adam Brown @adamlbrown.bsky.social · 1d
My favourite school trip was to Manchester Science Museum, but it was a Monday so it was closed, so we did Granada studios instead
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adamlbrown.bsky.social
Adam Brown @adamlbrown.bsky.social · 1d
wealth creators do not, in fact, create wealth
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adamlbrown.bsky.social
Adam Brown @adamlbrown.bsky.social · 1d
Trying to compensate for the obviously fatally simplistic assumption that all innovations are essentially the same and only differ by magnitude by weaving in a cutting edge Poisson distribution (first published 1813)
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adamlbrown.bsky.social
Adam Brown @adamlbrown.bsky.social · 1d
The thing is though is that its not even recent mathematics, its Enlightenment era mathematics that the physical sciences realised weren't useful descriptors of complex reality 100 years ago
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adamlbrown.bsky.social
Adam Brown @adamlbrown.bsky.social · 1d
There's definitely plenty more Nobels to be won in repackaging some small fraction of the useful insight from a randomly selected heterodox economics field in neoclassical clothing
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adamlbrown.bsky.social
Adam Brown @adamlbrown.bsky.social · 1d
I don't think I could be more underwhelmed.
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adamlbrown.bsky.social
Adam Brown @adamlbrown.bsky.social · 1d
Its a shame that Richard Nelson died in January because honestly he was long overdue. They could still give it to Brian Arthur and Sidney Winter
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adamlbrown.bsky.social
Adam Brown @adamlbrown.bsky.social · 2d
I think there's certainly a lot more this government could do on that, yes. Currently the messaging is a bit inconsistent and I'm not sure the advice they're getting is very up to date
adamlbrown.bsky.social
Adam Brown @adamlbrown.bsky.social · 2d
Indeed! I wouldn't be surprised if that is how they did it. Imagine if we forecast the weather like this. 'Well it's got consistently warmer through months 1-7 this year, so the results of our regression suggest it will continue to get warmer through months 8-12'
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adamlbrown.bsky.social
Adam Brown @adamlbrown.bsky.social · 2d
I think they're all interesting! a lot of the story is that if you don't actively regulate to encourage equitable productivity growth, it's more attractive for dominant firms to just try to build moats and rent seek instead.
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adamlbrown.bsky.social
Adam Brown @adamlbrown.bsky.social · 2d
The message from the hedgehog chart, which always predicts the same level of future productivity growth despite the underlying growth drivers changing, sometimes significantly, from year to year, is that this is a clownishly amateurish attempt at economic forecasting. We might as well toss a coin
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adamlbrown.bsky.social
Adam Brown @adamlbrown.bsky.social · 2d
Which sector do you wanna know about?
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adamlbrown.bsky.social
Adam Brown @adamlbrown.bsky.social · 2d
Obviously
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adamlbrown.bsky.social
Adam Brown @adamlbrown.bsky.social · 2d
I hope his killers are appropriately punished with TV privileges removed for up to a week or something
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adamlbrown.bsky.social
Adam Brown @adamlbrown.bsky.social · 2d
...reduce consumption through a combination of tax rises, higher interest rates, some current spending restrictions. We all understand this. So why, now consumption is falling as planned, are journalists and politicians treating this as a surprise, or a problem to be fixed? Did they miss the memo?
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adamlbrown.bsky.social
Adam Brown @adamlbrown.bsky.social · 2d
If we ever want productivity growth ever again, we need to rebuild UK national capital stocks which requires a massive increase in both public and private investment. The only way to do this whilst maintaining macroeconomic stability is to simultaneously reduce consumption. So we take measures to...
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adamlbrown.bsky.social
Adam Brown @adamlbrown.bsky.social · 2d
It's not massively worse, it's just more obvious. It is harder than ever to pretend we live in a meritocracy.
adamlbrown.bsky.social
Adam Brown @adamlbrown.bsky.social · 2d
I tried to write a chapter in a recent report about how the UK managed to pair some of the highest quality economic policy research in the world with some of the worst actual economic policy but it was difficult not to get cross
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adamlbrown.bsky.social
Adam Brown @adamlbrown.bsky.social · 2d
We don't want harwood here, he's a disingenuous troll. His presence brings nothing but aggravation. He has nothing to teach and is incapable of learning.
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