Ukraine War Brief Podcast
@ukrainewarpod.bsky.social
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Rob Gaudette on Twitter. Hosted by a Ukrainian and produced by an American with a PharmD. thepeoplesmedia.substack.com
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ukrainewarpod.bsky.social
If I use an estimated 6 trillion ruble deficit—instead of the “very optimistic” 3.8 trillion rubles currently under consideration—the gap is even more profound.
ukrainewarpod.bsky.social
Did the troops get their direct deposits today? Or no?
Reposted by Ukraine War Brief Podcast
chadbourn.bsky.social
The aircraft carrying US Secretary of Defense/war/whatevs Pete Hegseth from Brussels declared an emergency before turning around over the Atlantic and heading back toward the UK.
Flight radar showing flight path
Reposted by Ukraine War Brief Podcast
paxlusitanica.bsky.social
This is one of the most easily-readable macroeconomic assessments of the Russian economy that I have read for a while. Thundering applause!
Reposted by Ukraine War Brief Podcast
chadbourn.bsky.social
New UK sanctions on Russia: Rosneft and Lukoil, four oil terminals in China, 44 tankers in the shadow fleet and Naraya Energy which imported $5 billion of Russian crude in 2024.
Reposted by Ukraine War Brief Podcast
theins.press
The Insider exclusive: Copy of Odesa Mayor Trukhanov’s “active” Russian passport shared by Ukraine’s SBU is a forgery

The document presented by Ukrainian authorities features a number that corresponds to an ID issued to a woman named Tatyana.
The Insider exclusive: Copy of Odesa Mayor Trukhanov’s “active” Russian passport shared by Ukraine’s SBU is a forgery
On Tuesday, October 14, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) released copies of documents that served as the basis for revoking the Ukrainian citizenship of Odesa Mayor Hennadiy Trukhanov
theins.press
ukrainewarpod.bsky.social
‼️ Look at that LINE for gasoline in Krasnoyarsk!!! I don’t think Russia can import their way out of this quandary.
ukrainewarpod.bsky.social
A total bloodbath for the Russian budget and Russian exporters today on the currency market.
Reposted by Ukraine War Brief Podcast
halfbrickmccurdy.bsky.social
1/2 Sberbank's 2024 annual results record a noticeable increase in lending to government; federal bonds grew from 3% to 9% of it's asset portfolio. In theory this should produce a "safer" bank (as government bonds attract no/minimal risk weights when calculating capital adequacy).
ukrainewarpod.bsky.social
Yes, the program has been curtailed as your graph shows. However, the difference between the preferential rate (6%) and the market rate (23%) is still massive. The govt is on the hook for huge spreads for years and years.

Wouldn’t be as big of a deal if the key rate was lower.
ukrainewarpod.bsky.social
If you’re wondering how russia’s REPO creates inflation, AI gave a surprisingly good explanation.
ukrainewarpod.bsky.social
This isn’t a normal repo auction. It’s a repo to finance the government deficit. The money is already spent, so it’s in the money supply when the bank buys the bond back.

In normal repo, M0 increases but not M2 because it’s not leaving the bank.
ukrainewarpod.bsky.social
@prune602.bsky.social, @evgen-istrebin.bsky.social came through!

Russians continue to withdraw funds from Russian bank deposits

Cash withdrawal statistics from Russian banks
June: -216 bn rubles
July: -226
August: -199
September: -188
Oct 1-14: -137

The trend is stable without acceleration
ukrainewarpod.bsky.social
Yes, that’s all inflationary too
ukrainewarpod.bsky.social
This makes sense to me. We were all right 🤣
ukrainewarpod.bsky.social
Yes, that’s my guess. I’m going to do more research on this. I know it’s correct, I just can’t explain it… yet.
ukrainewarpod.bsky.social
But that money didn’t exist and then they gave it to the government in the form of a bond. Where is the bank getting the money to pay back the loan?
ukrainewarpod.bsky.social
Oh, is one of the three Bashneft refineries there on fire?
ukrainewarpod.bsky.social
What if it’s REPO 1 trillion/week for 84 weeks?

Igor Lipsits says it’s money printing, and I believe him. I don’t fully understand the mechanism.
ukrainewarpod.bsky.social
Having bonds allows them to issue more loans from a risk perspective, no?