Stephen Wolf
@stephenwolf.bsky.social
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Contributor @the-downballot.com. Democracy, voting rights, redistricting, and maps.
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stephenwolf.bsky.social
Thread: Republicans won the Senate in 2024 despite Democrats winning more votes & representing more people nationwide.

Republicans last won more support than Democrats in the 1990s but won the Senate anyway in 7 of 13 elections since 2000.

Data & charts below: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
A chart of the U.S. Senate popular vote and the population represented by each party from 1990 to 2024. Republicans have won the Senate in 7 of the last 13 elections starting with the year 2000 despite continually winning fewer collective votes and representing fewer Americans than Democrats.
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
tompepinsky.com
One piece of evidence in favor of Thomas’s argument is that every single other populist movement in human history emerged without social media
zeitzoff.bsky.social
I think there’s a comfort in blaming our current politics on social media.

When I think a boring but more accurate story is that plutocratic tech elites and right-wingers *made a lot of choices*.

www.nytimes.com/2025/10/14/o...
Edsall from NYT: “ The rise of the smartphone and the fall of western democracy” In an Oct. 2 essay posted in Persuasion, “It’s the Internet, Stupid: What Caused the Global Populist Wave? Blame the Screens,” Fukuyama, after nearly a decade of examining the causes of rising global populism, wrote, “I have come to conclude that technology broadly and the internet in particular stand out as the most salient explanations for why global populism has arisen in this particular historical period, and why it has taken the particular form that it has.”

The advent of the internet, Fukuyama continued,

can explain both the timing of the rise of populism, as well as the curious conspiratorial character that it has taken. In today’s politics, the red and blue sides of America’s polarization contest not just values and policies, but factual information like who won the 2020 election or whether vaccines are safe.

The two sides inhabit completely different information spaces; both can believe that they are involved in an existential struggle for American democracy because they begin with different factual premises as to the nature of the threats to that order.
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
tonyromm.bsky.social
NEW: The Trump administration has blocked or slowed almost $28 billion in federal aid since the shutdown began, largely harming Democratic-led cities, congressional districts and states, underscoring how the president has weaponized a fiscal stalemate

www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
the-downballot.com
Kansas Republicans are slated to meet with the White House *tomorrow*—and redistricting is likely to come up.

The KS GOP is trying to push through another gerrymander, but by all signs, they don't have the votes. sunflowerstatejournal.com/white-house-...
White House invites GOP Kansas lawmakers to conference; Will redistricting surface? | Sunflower State Journal
sunflowerstatejournal.com
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
carlquintanilla.bsky.social
POLITICO: “.. They referred to Black people as monkeys and ‘the watermelon people’ and mused about putting their political opponents in gas chambers. They talked about raping their enemies .. and lauded Republicans who they believed support slavery.

@politico.com
www.politico.com/news/2025/10...
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
kevintmorris.bsky.social
Tomorrow, SCOTUS will hear arguments in Louisiana v. Callais, a major threat to (what remains of) the 1965 Voting Rights Act. But this isn't the first time the VRA has faced dire threats; in 2013 and 2021, SCOTUS weakened other provisions. We can learn from those why Callais could be so dangerous 🧵
stephenwolf.bsky.social
Politico reports Hakeem Jeffries is continuing to encourage Illinois Democrats to a pass a new congressional map to retaliate against the Republican effort to re-gerrymander numerous states.

Gov. JB Pritzker previously said he wasn’t opposed, but the state legislature’s position remains unclear
Dems eye another Illinois seat
www.politico.com
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
perrybaconjr.bsky.social
I didn't watch CBS News before Bari Weiss got there. I doubt you did either. But the mainstream media moving right really does matter, because of the mainstream media's collective powers of 1. agenda-setting and 2. framing. newrepublic.com/article/2016...
The Mainstream Media Is Moving Right. Here’s What We Can Do About It.
At The Washington Post, CBS, and maybe CNN, the trend line is terrible. But liberals do have the power to reverse these trends.
newrepublic.com
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
sallylhudson.bsky.social
Virginia — we have our own state Voting Rights Act that protects our right to continue this work
— but only with an AG and Gov who are willing.

It’s among the sky-high stakes of November’s election.
kevintmorris.bsky.social
As we head into tomorrow, don't forget about *local* politics. We're all focused on Congressional districts, but Section 2 has been used to dismantle HUNDREDS of discriminatory town, city, and county plans — very often striking down at-large systems that can't be reduced to "partisan gerrymandering"
stephenwolf.bsky.social
Mills would be the oldest person ever elected to a first term in the Senate. She would turn 79 just days before taking office.

The current record holder is Vermont Democrat Peter Welch, who was elected in 2022 at age 75 (though he represented his whole state in the House for 16 years before that)
stephenwolf.bsky.social
Republicans are moving closer to re-gerrymandering Kansas’ congressional map.

A new map would target the state’s lone Democrat, Rep. Sharice Davids, whom they unsuccessfully targeted with their current gerrymander
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
davidnir.com
The gaslighting—from NC Republicans and many others—is really something else. They're just outright pretending that California launched this year's redistricting wars, even though it started with Texas. bergerpress.medium.com/general-asse...
stephenwolf.bsky.social
Surely better but still dire. The GOP would’ve held the House regardless, & Dems needed a 3-point swing for the Senate in this scenario.

2018’s Senate map was so bad the GOP could’ve won 60 seats & a big House majority. What would that & possibly Scalia’s vacant SCOTUS seat do to the 2020 primary?
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
mcpli.bsky.social
Although the Callais case at SCOTUS involves a high-profile congressional redistricting dispute, important to remember that most Section 2 cases (2/3!) continue to involve local government bodies like city councils & school boards. - mostly challenges to at-large systems.
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
the-downballot.com
Pretty wild stuff here reported by the @kansasreflector.com.

GOP leaders are pushing their members to convene a special session to gerrymander the KS House map, but now they say there's an even more important reason: stopping trans Kansans from changing gender markers on their driver's licenses.
stephenwolf.bsky.social
I really doubt they're risking anything more with a new map compared to the current map. They were deterred somewhat last time by the risk of a racial gerrymandering/VRA lawsuit, but the Supreme Court is poised to make that even less of a concern for them this time
stephenwolf.bsky.social
North Carolina Republicans proposed an 11-3 gerrymander in 2023, but they instead passed a 10-3 map with one swing district that Dems won.

Trump won all 11 red districts below by at least 10 points, & the GOP could even draw something a bit stronger for 2026 davesredistricting.org/join/803b9fe...
Image of a congressional map proposed by North Carolina Republicans in 2023 that was drawn to elect an 11-to-3 Republican majority in this swing state. The districts are colored by the 2024 presidential winner's margin. Donald Trump won the 11 red districts by 10-to-18 point margins while Kamala Harris won the 3 blue districts by 38-to-46 point margins.
stephenwolf.bsky.social
North Carolina Republicans proposed an 11-3 gerrymander in 2023, but they instead passed a 10-3 map with one swing district that Dems won.

Trump won all 11 red districts below by at least 10 points, & the GOP could even draw something a bit stronger for 2026 davesredistricting.org/join/803b9fe...
Image of a congressional map proposed by North Carolina Republicans in 2023 that was drawn to elect an 11-to-3 Republican majority in this swing state. The districts are colored by the 2024 presidential winner's margin. Donald Trump won the 11 red districts by 10-to-18 point margins while Kamala Harris won the 3 blue districts by 38-to-46 point margins.
stephenwolf.bsky.social
North Carolina Republicans just announced they plan to pass a more extreme congressional gerrymander for 2026.

Republicans re-gerrymandered this swing state's congressional map just last cycle to turn what had been 7 Dem - 7 Rep split into a 10-4 majority. Now they're going for an 11-3 edge
General Assembly Heeds President Trump’s Call to Thwart Blue State Attempts to Take Congress
Raleigh, N.C. — Today, legislative leaders agreed to hold votes during the previously scheduled October legislative session to block the…
bergerpress.medium.com
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
radleybalko.bsky.social
The Treasury Secretary declares himself to be pro-monarchy, and promises to punish the entire country if the people exercise their First Amendment rights.
atrupar.com
Bessent: "No Kings means no paychecks. No paychecks and no government."
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
leedrutman.bsky.social
New study finds Democrats represent public opinion better than Republicans: "the quality of statehouse democracy, here meaning the dynamic relationship between opinion and policy, is substantially weakened by Republican Party control of state government."

www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/epdf/10....
stephenwolf.bsky.social
Trump is supposed to be Putin here, but things famously did not work out well for another Russian autocrat who tried to force the Duma into submission.

Just saying … it would be fitting if mass protests on International Women’s Day were what finally brought down Trump’s regime too
davidnir.com
"Inside the White House, top advisers joke that they are ruling Congress with an 'iron fist,' according to people who have heard the comments. Steve Bannon, the influential Trump ally, likened Congress to the Duma, the Russian assembly that is largely ceremonial."

From Josh Dawsey at the @wsj.com.
Trump, Feeling Emboldened, Pushes Agenda Into Higher Gear
Recent moves by the president reflect a commander in chief who has seemingly faced little resistance to his agenda.
www.wsj.com
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
jonwalkerpdx.bsky.social
Really just giving the game away. There is no legal logic to what they are doing and they never want it to apply to any future Dem president but they need to give Trump whatever he wants.
atrupar.com
Amy Coney Barrett defends heavy use of the shadow docket: "If we wrote a long opinion, it might give the impression that we have finally resolved the issue, and in none of these cases have we finally resolved the issue."
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
brendannyhan.bsky.social
"Look at the picture... One of these is a member of a private militia that supports the President and was involved in a violent effort to overturn the election, the other is an agent of the state. Can you tell the difference?" donmoynihan.substack.com/p/purge-merg...
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
leahlitman.bsky.social
The "plaintiffs" seeking to dismantle the Voting Rights Act (in a case this week at SCOTUS) include:

-a member of the "Trumpettes," a group of women who ardently support for the president
-a retiree who said he didn’t remember signing up to be involved in a lawsuit.

www.nytimes.com/2025/10/12/u...
One woman made national news when she protested the Covid-19 vaccine at her local City Council. Another is a member of the Trumpettes, a group of women united in their ardent support for the president. A third is a retired grocery salesman who said he didn’t remember signing up to be involved in a lawsuit.

The three are among the 12 Louisiana voters at the center of a case set to be heard by the Supreme Court on Wednesday that could gut what remains of the Voting Rights Act of 1965, the landmark civil-rights-era legislation.

In January 2024, the group filed a lawsuit challenging the constitutionality of Louisiana’s congressional district map, arguing state lawmakers had discriminated against them as white voters by impermissibly taking race into account when they drafted the map after the 2020 census.

Since then, they’ve been referred to in court filings merely as the “non-African-American” voters.