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linesdown.bsky.social
lines down
@linesdown.bsky.social
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Economic indicators for the left.
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META, falls nearly -10% after missing Q3 2025 earnings expectations due to a $15.9 billion one-time expense.
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Powell's press conference is more consequential than usual:
1. December rate cut may not happen
2. The FOMC is divided ("strongly differing views")
3. Powell very worried—about both inflation and unemployment.

Stocks are falling, bond yields rising, as he speaks.
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Powell: "In the near term, risks to inflation are tilted to the upside, and risks to employment to the downside -- a challenging situation. There is no risk-free path for policy as we navigate this tension between our employment and inflation goals."
Note where Powell starts speaking
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One thing that stuff like this gives me confidence about: willingness to pay for AI output is going to get awfully close to zero.
The radicalization of normies. Reminds me of this sign during BLM
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Citi: “In our base case, the government reopens in mid-November, leading to a pile-up of jobs data in late November/early December. Rate cuts in 2026 will become more dependent on labor market data – we expect a rise in unemployment to keep the Fed cutting rates by 25bp” at January, March FOMCs.
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JPMORGAN: “.. rising delinquencies on some loans are raising concerns about lower-income households. For example, the 60+ day delinquency rate on subprime auto loans reported by Fitch has recently hit a record high ..”

$F $GM $CVNA
American Century of Humiliation
The policy of the Fed is to get inflation to 2%, they aren’t there yet. However, the inflation numbers came in lower than people thought this month. The markets interpreted that as a positive sign and went up.
My two word review of A House of Dynamite: NatSec Rashomon.
Mr Treehorn treats objects like women man
Annualized change in food prices from today’s inflation report
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With millions at risk of losing SNAP in the coming days, a reminder: hunger doesn't happen in isolation. When food assistance disappears, families use rent money to eat. Then come evictions and homelessness.

Housing, food, healthcare—it's all connected. Cut one thread and the whole thing unravels.
Inflation is above target but less than expected.
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“.. 3-month annualized change in core #CPI as of September: +3.64%”

(via Kev Gordon)
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Musk says his confidence in achieving unsupervised FSD means Tesla will expand production.

In related news, here's a chart of Tesla's market share.
Sincerely when formal, Thanks when informal.
Bad day for many industrials