"Carbon credits are failing to help with climate change - here's why" is a recent paper, published in Nature magazine.
It documents "fatal flaws" with offsets:
🚨 "Hot air";
🚨 Additionality;
🚨 Permanence; and
🚨 Offsets distract from ending fossil fuels.
reddmonitor.substack.com/p/climate-po...
It documents "fatal flaws" with offsets:
🚨 "Hot air";
🚨 Additionality;
🚨 Permanence; and
🚨 Offsets distract from ending fossil fuels.
reddmonitor.substack.com/p/climate-po...
Climate policy experts call for “excluding or phasing out offsets from carbon-pricing schemes and other climate policy processes”
A call to “act on the science”.
reddmonitor.substack.com
October 27, 2025 at 11:31 AM
"Carbon credits are failing to help with climate change - here's why" is a recent paper, published in Nature magazine.
It documents "fatal flaws" with offsets:
🚨 "Hot air";
🚨 Additionality;
🚨 Permanence; and
🚨 Offsets distract from ending fossil fuels.
reddmonitor.substack.com/p/climate-po...
It documents "fatal flaws" with offsets:
🚨 "Hot air";
🚨 Additionality;
🚨 Permanence; and
🚨 Offsets distract from ending fossil fuels.
reddmonitor.substack.com/p/climate-po...
- Most offset programs overestimate their impact by a factor of 5, 10 or +
- Credit quality is a problem despite efforts to address additionality, leakage, double counting, injustice, verification and permanence
- Overcrediting an intractable problem
www.annualreviews.org/content/jour...
- Credit quality is a problem despite efforts to address additionality, leakage, double counting, injustice, verification and permanence
- Overcrediting an intractable problem
www.annualreviews.org/content/jour...
Are Carbon Offsets Fixable?
This article provides a systematic review of the literature on carbon offsets. A growing number of studies have found that the most widely used offset programs continue to greatly overestimate their p...
www.annualreviews.org
October 13, 2025 at 11:45 AM
- Most offset programs overestimate their impact by a factor of 5, 10 or +
- Credit quality is a problem despite efforts to address additionality, leakage, double counting, injustice, verification and permanence
- Overcrediting an intractable problem
www.annualreviews.org/content/jour...
- Credit quality is a problem despite efforts to address additionality, leakage, double counting, injustice, verification and permanence
- Overcrediting an intractable problem
www.annualreviews.org/content/jour...
The problem with DACCS is the energy additionality problem. If we build in gt of CO2 removal, we're adding TWh of clean Energy demand on top of current replacement and transition goals
October 24, 2023 at 11:13 PM
The problem with DACCS is the energy additionality problem. If we build in gt of CO2 removal, we're adding TWh of clean Energy demand on top of current replacement and transition goals
New comment out in @Joule_CP We argue that the "additionality rule" in the current EU legislation on green hydrogen imports is not sufficient to guarantee that hydrogen production in third countries is not increasing emissions in those regions....
November 18, 2024 at 1:44 PM
New comment out in @Joule_CP We argue that the "additionality rule" in the current EU legislation on green hydrogen imports is not sufficient to guarantee that hydrogen production in third countries is not increasing emissions in those regions....
One for you @reddmonitor #iREDD fixes unholy trinity of leakage, permanence and additionality http://wp.me/phhT4-1MU
Unholy trinity of leakage, permanence and additionality
wp.me
November 15, 2024 at 6:15 PM
One for you @reddmonitor #iREDD fixes unholy trinity of leakage, permanence and additionality http://wp.me/phhT4-1MU
If SMUD uses the program to fund the build out of projects that would not otherwise be built (delivered to their service territory), they've got additionality and deliverability covered. If you only charge the toothbrush mid-day on sunny days, you can take care of time-matching yourself.
November 14, 2024 at 5:48 PM
If SMUD uses the program to fund the build out of projects that would not otherwise be built (delivered to their service territory), they've got additionality and deliverability covered. If you only charge the toothbrush mid-day on sunny days, you can take care of time-matching yourself.
Innovation outcomes of public R&D support. A new approach to identifying output additionality: Eric Iversen; Arvid Raknerud; Marit Klemetsen; Brita Bye
NEP/RePEc link
to paper
d.repec.org
March 9, 2025 at 12:49 PM
Innovation outcomes of public R&D support. A new approach to identifying output additionality: Eric Iversen; Arvid Raknerud; Marit Klemetsen; Brita Bye
mkreutzfeldt.bsky.social: The written draft of the agreement between the CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens, which is now available, provides some more clarity on the additionality of investments from the new special fund. A short thread on this topic. (1/x) Orig.
March 15, 2025 at 10:43 AM
mkreutzfeldt.bsky.social: The written draft of the agreement between the CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens, which is now available, provides some more clarity on the additionality of investments from the new special fund. A short thread on this topic. (1/x) Orig.
🌳 Definitions & Principles - how emissions are measured, industry jargon like additionality, permanence, and leakage, and certification standards and methodologies.
🌳 Carbon Project Development - What are the types of carbon credit projects and how they differ.
🌳 Carbon Project Development - What are the types of carbon credit projects and how they differ.
March 4, 2024 at 3:58 PM
🌳 Definitions & Principles - how emissions are measured, industry jargon like additionality, permanence, and leakage, and certification standards and methodologies.
🌳 Carbon Project Development - What are the types of carbon credit projects and how they differ.
🌳 Carbon Project Development - What are the types of carbon credit projects and how they differ.
It’s a good example of mostly natural afforestation as land use patterns change. I see this is an underrecognized additionality issue with many purposeful afforestation projects in a world of peak pasture, continued ag intensification, and future peak population
February 18, 2024 at 8:38 PM
It’s a good example of mostly natural afforestation as land use patterns change. I see this is an underrecognized additionality issue with many purposeful afforestation projects in a world of peak pasture, continued ag intensification, and future peak population
Quantifying the Additionality of Grid-Connected Hydrogen in a Decarbonising Energy System: Xing, H.; Miles, J.; Scott, S. A.
NEP/RePEc link
to paper
d.repec.org
September 9, 2025 at 8:45 AM
Quantifying the Additionality of Grid-Connected Hydrogen in a Decarbonising Energy System: Xing, H.; Miles, J.; Scott, S. A.
YaleClimateConnections: “The hidden risks of forest carbon credits.” Often individuals + companies purchase what are called forest carbon credits. “They’re a way to offset…carbon emissions by paying to plant or protect trees, which absorb and store carbon as they grow.”
![Old growth tree. The organizations that certify these credits have protocols they allegedly use to estimate a project’s impact. The theory: “One credit … should represent one ton of additional carbon dioxide that is stored in a forest.” The reality: “Rebecca Sanders-Demott of the Clean Air Task Force says many projects fail to live up to that promise because of flaws in the protocols.”
Her team found in a recent analysis that many certification programs underestimate the risks of wildfires + diseases, which can obviously kill trees. Another potential problem is the concept of “displacement,” the risk that protecting trees in one area might increase logging in another. [Non-]additionality is when a logging company would replant trees anyway—most often in a monoculture—but then solicits forest carbon credits as another bogus line of revenue. Natural disasters such as wildfires + bark beetles can render a credit worthless by releasing carbon emissions. The certification process may be subject to corruption or regulatory capture; changes of government by election or coup may sacrifice existing protected forest. The Guardian has reported their analysis which showed more than 90% of rainforest carbon offsets from a company named Verra [short for ‘verification’ one assumes] had no positive impact on the climate. Another systemic review of over 2,000 offset projects found that only 12% led to real emissions reductions. A study by REDD+ Projects found that the proportion of worthless credits to be as high as 94%.
For a company seeking greenwashing, realize that it is simply corporate malfeasance to claim to the public + to your customers that it is accomplishing a social good. For an individual, don’t waste your money trying to salve your conscience about the carbon emissions of your next flight overseas. Harsh but true. Consider this tough love + get over it.](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:nnq2reoe4aaiyhhtsofqmdrz/bafkreiawbpbf3zanh3mvu7dh2jpwzd3ze2fugl2cpysdqhrl2zhmiy5req@jpeg)
October 22, 2025 at 2:56 PM
YaleClimateConnections: “The hidden risks of forest carbon credits.” Often individuals + companies purchase what are called forest carbon credits. “They’re a way to offset…carbon emissions by paying to plant or protect trees, which absorb and store carbon as they grow.”
Thoughts on the paradox between some buyers preferring pure play CDR to maximize additionality of their purchase, vs co-products being able to add revenue streams to the process?
November 20, 2024 at 3:31 AM
Thoughts on the paradox between some buyers preferring pure play CDR to maximize additionality of their purchase, vs co-products being able to add revenue streams to the process?
The impact is highly heterogeneous: Minimal additionality in remote "high and far" areas, but large in parks facing high pressure (66% decrease in deforestation).
January 13, 2025 at 3:56 PM
The impact is highly heterogeneous: Minimal additionality in remote "high and far" areas, but large in parks facing high pressure (66% decrease in deforestation).
New policy idea: All AI operations must be subject to additionality.
What is the point of AI if it can't achieve this?
What is the point of AI if it can't achieve this?
April 2, 2024 at 2:03 PM
New policy idea: All AI operations must be subject to additionality.
What is the point of AI if it can't achieve this?
What is the point of AI if it can't achieve this?
Build Public Renewables Act for the win?
curious about the additionality of all this but you love to see it
curious about the additionality of all this but you love to see it
October 8, 2024 at 8:23 PM
Build Public Renewables Act for the win?
curious about the additionality of all this but you love to see it
curious about the additionality of all this but you love to see it
iREDD hedges against avoided deforestation's unholy trinity of leakage, permanence and additionality http://ow.ly/dYcQM
November 15, 2024 at 8:03 PM
iREDD hedges against avoided deforestation's unholy trinity of leakage, permanence and additionality http://ow.ly/dYcQM
Love this - the additionality being a plague to adaptation, I see it in barriers to adaptation as well, many of which are excuses stemming from avoid something that seems additional (not my mandate, too expensive, etc.). But taking future climate into account isn't additional if you view it... 1/2
November 19, 2024 at 7:11 AM
Love this - the additionality being a plague to adaptation, I see it in barriers to adaptation as well, many of which are excuses stemming from avoid something that seems additional (not my mandate, too expensive, etc.). But taking future climate into account isn't additional if you view it... 1/2
In case the #Greens were able to ensure that a substantial amount of at least 100bn actually flows into the climate transformation fund and that the criterion of additionality is included, this would be a gain for responsibility, sustainability and reason.
The #Greens seem to have won. CDU and SPD agree to make any investment fund "additional" to current investment.
100 of the 500bn will go into a climate fund. www.rnd.de/politik/live...
100 of the 500bn will go into a climate fund. www.rnd.de/politik/live...
RND exklusiv: Grüne einigen sich mit Schwarz-Rot auf Finanzpaket – 100 Milliarden Euro für Klimaschutz
In den Verhandlungen von Union, SPD und Grünen über das Schuldenpaket haben sich die drei Fraktionen nach RND-Informationen auf einen Kompromiss verständigt. Das dürfte auch die Koalitionsverhandlunge...
www.rnd.de
March 14, 2025 at 11:39 AM
In case the #Greens were able to ensure that a substantial amount of at least 100bn actually flows into the climate transformation fund and that the criterion of additionality is included, this would be a gain for responsibility, sustainability and reason.
incidentally, they find that if the board tried to set a higher bar for additionality it wouldn't much reduce type 2 errors (approve a non-additional) and would increase type 1 (fail to approve additional). In my day job all external observers think DFIs should set a bar to *ensure* additionality.
May 6, 2025 at 1:19 PM
incidentally, they find that if the board tried to set a higher bar for additionality it wouldn't much reduce type 2 errors (approve a non-additional) and would increase type 1 (fail to approve additional). In my day job all external observers think DFIs should set a bar to *ensure* additionality.
Just accepted in @conletters "iREDD hedges against avoided deforestation’s unholy trinity of leakage, permanence and additionality"
November 15, 2024 at 6:12 PM
Just accepted in @conletters "iREDD hedges against avoided deforestation’s unholy trinity of leakage, permanence and additionality"
Not sure how much of this is about assessing textual compliance (which would be straightforward) vs assessing additionality (which is more of an economic question)
November 22, 2024 at 5:32 PM
Not sure how much of this is about assessing textual compliance (which would be straightforward) vs assessing additionality (which is more of an economic question)
There’s still disagreement, is my sense, but they look better if you include non-carbon benefits. theconversation.com/e-bike-incen...
Anderson and Hong (2022) in AEA also finds low additionality: www.google.com/url?sa=t&sou...
Anderson and Hong (2022) in AEA also finds low additionality: www.google.com/url?sa=t&sou...
E-bike incentives are a costly way to cut carbon emissions, but they also promote health, equity and cleaner air
Many incentive programs promote e-bike use, but they aren’t necessarily targeting the right people for the right reasons.
theconversation.com
January 3, 2025 at 7:02 PM
There’s still disagreement, is my sense, but they look better if you include non-carbon benefits. theconversation.com/e-bike-incen...
Anderson and Hong (2022) in AEA also finds low additionality: www.google.com/url?sa=t&sou...
Anderson and Hong (2022) in AEA also finds low additionality: www.google.com/url?sa=t&sou...
Great chart that illustrates the problem with the "additionality" narrative for #renewableenergy. The black lines are demand, the red fossil generation.
When linear growth meets accelerating growth, accelerating growth will overtake the linear. The only question is when.
#energytransition
When linear growth meets accelerating growth, accelerating growth will overtake the linear. The only question is when.
#energytransition
🇨🇳 China has decoupled economic and electricity demand growth from growth in fossil generation by rapidly building out wind and solar power.
Fossil power in China is already close to peaking.
🇮🇳 India is now starting to do the same…
Fossil power in China is already close to peaking.
🇮🇳 India is now starting to do the same…
April 14, 2025 at 10:04 AM
Great chart that illustrates the problem with the "additionality" narrative for #renewableenergy. The black lines are demand, the red fossil generation.
When linear growth meets accelerating growth, accelerating growth will overtake the linear. The only question is when.
#energytransition
When linear growth meets accelerating growth, accelerating growth will overtake the linear. The only question is when.
#energytransition
Oh, #nzpol. I see you're following in the #aukus footsteps of carbon credits.
Carbon bullshittery is the worst.
@ghgpolicy.org "everyone says they’re going to deliver additionality and no one does, and there are never any consequences.”.
@reddmonitor.bsky.social also slays re: #carbonoffsets.
Carbon bullshittery is the worst.
@ghgpolicy.org "everyone says they’re going to deliver additionality and no one does, and there are never any consequences.”.
@reddmonitor.bsky.social also slays re: #carbonoffsets.
Who’s Going to Tell Harris the Truth About Carbon Markets?
Big Tech and Biden officials still seem to think they can make offset markets work. To say the track record is bad is an understatement.
newrepublic.com
October 21, 2024 at 8:33 PM
Oh, #nzpol. I see you're following in the #aukus footsteps of carbon credits.
Carbon bullshittery is the worst.
@ghgpolicy.org "everyone says they’re going to deliver additionality and no one does, and there are never any consequences.”.
@reddmonitor.bsky.social also slays re: #carbonoffsets.
Carbon bullshittery is the worst.
@ghgpolicy.org "everyone says they’re going to deliver additionality and no one does, and there are never any consequences.”.
@reddmonitor.bsky.social also slays re: #carbonoffsets.