Looking forward to Matt Goodwin's detailed proposals for defeating the pothole threat in Levenshulme
January 27, 2026 at 2:18 PM
As it happens I reckon Plaid, SNP, Greens and Reform will have MPs in greater numbers and LibDems will do OK as a most likely scenario. But under different leadership Labour and the Conservatives still have strong pathways to remaining largest parties, and the former even holding a majority
January 27, 2026 at 9:18 AM
So agree that performative doomering this far out from 2029 gets a bit absurd.
The issue with Starmer is that his people are fueling that doomering by playing this bond market card.
The issue with Starmer is that his people are fueling that doomering by playing this bond market card.
January 27, 2026 at 9:18 AM
Forcing Miller out before the mid-terms might prove crucial to ensuring that Trump doesn't disrupt any January 2027 transfer of power in Congress
January 26, 2026 at 4:55 PM
Which btw links to the other matter that popped up in my timeline today
bsky.app/profile/aphc...
bsky.app/profile/aphc...
Worth noting that the more the Trump-backed Alberta separatism theme has dominated discussion in Albertan politics the more the Centre-Left NDP has started to catch up in polls with the governing Right wing UCP
1/ Trump Administration officials have reportedly held several secret meetings with Canadian separatists, who are seeking US$500 billion to bankroll their efforts. It suggests that the Administration is interested in breaking up Canada and absorbing the remnants. ⬇️
January 29, 2026 at 11:35 AM
Which btw links to the other matter that popped up in my timeline today
bsky.app/profile/aphc...
bsky.app/profile/aphc...
my favorite session back in the day - jazz group from Long Beach, CA comes in to cover the fluffernutter jingle for APHC. Nailed that shit on the first take. Session lasted about 4 hours because fuck if we weren't going to use the time we were being paid for
January 23, 2026 at 10:25 PM
my favorite session back in the day - jazz group from Long Beach, CA comes in to cover the fluffernutter jingle for APHC. Nailed that shit on the first take. Session lasted about 4 hours because fuck if we weren't going to use the time we were being paid for
It could get a lot worse too. If the US tries to destabilize Greenland or if the rumors of 5 eyes intel finding its way to Russia are confirmed 6/x bsky.app/profile/aphc...
This opens up wider questions about how far the UK and Canada in the 5 eyes intel sharing framework as well as other former allies of the United States can still provide the Americans with any sensitive intelligence information at all
January 19, 2026 at 5:00 AM
It could get a lot worse too. If the US tries to destabilize Greenland or if the rumors of 5 eyes intel finding its way to Russia are confirmed 6/x bsky.app/profile/aphc...
the thing about bringing brazil and latam into the equation is that alignment with latin american countries is always subject to every electoral cycle and now the US is becoming the same
bsky.app/profile/aphc...
bsky.app/profile/aphc...
Btw, though EU strategic self-reliance is crucial for Europeans I also hope the partnership Europe has with America survives even as the EU bolsters transatlantic ties with Canada and builds new ones with Brazil.
January 19, 2026 at 1:11 AM
the thing about bringing brazil and latam into the equation is that alignment with latin american countries is always subject to every electoral cycle and now the US is becoming the same
bsky.app/profile/aphc...
bsky.app/profile/aphc...
Nonzero chance that the Saturn-Neptune-in-Aries and Uranus-in-Gemini indicates that the U.S. faces not just civil insurrection, not just a foreign war, but rather the U.S. faces itself at the center of a proxy war.
bsky.app/profile/aphc...
bsky.app/profile/aphc...
🧵: Saturn-Neptune conjunction (tropical).
Background: I had done a similar 🧵 on Twitter in Dec. 2022 before ElRon Muskard took it. Wasn’t in the archive 🤦. So, I’m going to revisit this transit for all 12 rising signs, just be aware that I may not get everything I originally wrote. #astrosphere
Background: I had done a similar 🧵 on Twitter in Dec. 2022 before ElRon Muskard took it. Wasn’t in the archive 🤦. So, I’m going to revisit this transit for all 12 rising signs, just be aware that I may not get everything I originally wrote. #astrosphere
January 18, 2026 at 4:42 PM
Nonzero chance that the Saturn-Neptune-in-Aries and Uranus-in-Gemini indicates that the U.S. faces not just civil insurrection, not just a foreign war, but rather the U.S. faces itself at the center of a proxy war.
bsky.app/profile/aphc...
bsky.app/profile/aphc...
Europe is heading to a point where Atlanticism becomes equated with Appeasement
January 19, 2026 at 12:33 AM
This opens up wider questions about how far the UK and Canada in the 5 eyes intel sharing framework as well as other former allies of the United States can still provide the Americans with any sensitive intelligence information at all
January 18, 2026 at 1:47 PM
January 16, 2026 at 6:55 PM
What IMO is also missed in much analysis is how far Microsoft and Google's physical data infrastructure for Europe is place in Europe.
The anchors of the tech sector are operating two distinct European and American structures that are increasingly siloed from one another.
The anchors of the tech sector are operating two distinct European and American structures that are increasingly siloed from one another.
The thing I think folks struggle to appreciate with this stuff tho is however hard it is to wean Europe off US tech is *at least as hard* as it will be for US tech to get back into Europe after that type of transition kicks into high gear
January 15, 2026 at 11:16 AM
"Co-opetition" might be a good phrase to describe the future of relations between China, the EU, India and Brazil in a post-American world
January 16, 2026 at 3:07 PM
People like Greg Bovino or Tom Homan are so up to their necks in dreck they have piled on behalf of Stephen Miller and Donald Trump that they are likely to follow any orders the White House issues in an escalating clash between executive and legislative branches of government
Gallup Q4 Party ID (With indie leaners)
🟦 Democrat: 48%
🟥 Republican: 40%
news.gallup.com/poll/700499/...
🟦 Democrat: 48%
🟥 Republican: 40%
news.gallup.com/poll/700499/...
January 15, 2026 at 5:00 PM
January 15, 2026 at 3:14 PM
While the Trump administration is overstretching the US military across Iran, Venezuela, Nigeria, Greenland, Mexico, the Indo-Pacific and other commitments, it is also struggling to assert its repressive security power over Minnesota.
It's doing too much at once to be sustainably effective anywhere
It's doing too much at once to be sustainably effective anywhere
The point is also not to "defend" against an invasion or lose personnel. Rather, it is to seed enough deterrents and tripwires that the cost is manifest in advance, either preventing the attack, or making the correct robust response easy.
It's what Chamberlain did, just a different time-scale.
It's what Chamberlain did, just a different time-scale.
January 15, 2026 at 3:14 PM
Taps sign... and among all its racism and geopolitical submissiveness to MAGA it's also worth considering what happens to relations between England, Scotland, NI and Wales under a Reform UK government in the 2030s
bsky.app/profile/aphc...
bsky.app/profile/aphc...
While it might be more difficult for Reform to get a majority in 2029, if it gets IMV more likely 200 - 250 seats that force rivals into unstable multiparty coalitions then Farage can sit back as parliament becomes ungovernable and claim to voters that only he can restore order in 2032/33 elections
January 15, 2026 at 9:36 AM
Taps sign... and among all its racism and geopolitical submissiveness to MAGA it's also worth considering what happens to relations between England, Scotland, NI and Wales under a Reform UK government in the 2030s
bsky.app/profile/aphc...
bsky.app/profile/aphc...
Nuttige toelichting bsky.app/profile/aphc...
January 15, 2026 at 1:55 PM
Nuttige toelichting bsky.app/profile/aphc...
The growing strength of Plaid Cymru and the SNP is btw why my theory of how we get to a disastrous Reform government in Westminster is along these lines:
bsky.app/profile/aphc...
bsky.app/profile/aphc...
While it might be more difficult for Reform to get a majority in 2029, if it gets IMV more likely 200 - 250 seats that force rivals into unstable multiparty coalitions then Farage can sit back as parliament becomes ungovernable and claim to voters that only he can restore order in 2032/33 elections
January 13, 2026 at 7:13 PM
The growing strength of Plaid Cymru and the SNP is btw why my theory of how we get to a disastrous Reform government in Westminster is along these lines:
bsky.app/profile/aphc...
bsky.app/profile/aphc...
For a while I thought it was best to ignore DARC because attention is what these delusional supremacist grifters want, but after all that's happened in the last few months it's crucial for European policymakers to realise that what follows Trump in DC could be even worse
bsky.app/profile/aphc...
bsky.app/profile/aphc...
These may be just a bunch of well-connected bullshit artists but since they have some kind of link to FAI you might want to check their pieces on Canada and Brazil to get a sense of the average DHS social media manager POV when it comes to America's Hemisphere Strategy
defenseanalyses.org
defenseanalyses.org
DARC - Defense Analyses and Research Corporation
A new kind of defense think tank founded on bold defense thinking that acknowledges hard truths and confronts the urgency of this moment.
defenseanalyses.org
January 11, 2026 at 4:48 PM
For a while I thought it was best to ignore DARC because attention is what these delusional supremacist grifters want, but after all that's happened in the last few months it's crucial for European policymakers to realise that what follows Trump in DC could be even worse
bsky.app/profile/aphc...
bsky.app/profile/aphc...
However UK policymakers would much rather not have to think about the remaining flotsam and jetsam of British, French and Dutch empires, if Trump's actions around Venezuela and Cuba destabilise the Caribbean both the UK as well as the EU immediately get sucked in
bsky.app/profile/aphc...
bsky.app/profile/aphc...
Never mind the fact that Labour and Conservative leaders still seem completely oblivious to how even if the US does nothing against Greenland its current trajectory around the Caribbean will put the security of 3 million people at risk who live on islands and territories under EU or UK oversight.
January 11, 2026 at 6:00 PM
However UK policymakers would much rather not have to think about the remaining flotsam and jetsam of British, French and Dutch empires, if Trump's actions around Venezuela and Cuba destabilise the Caribbean both the UK as well as the EU immediately get sucked in
bsky.app/profile/aphc...
bsky.app/profile/aphc...
If you asked a random Atlanticist MP from GB which would they rather lose, the US as an ally or Northern Ireland as a constituent country, it's 50/50 what one they would pick to chuck.
bsky.app/profile/aphc...
bsky.app/profile/aphc...
Kemi Badenoch calling Greenland a "second order issue" while Labour leaders hide from it is another datapoint for how UK political elites are intellectually and psychologically able to cope with an imploding global order that no longer matches the world they grew up in during the 90s and 00s
January 11, 2026 at 12:00 PM
If you asked a random Atlanticist MP from GB which would they rather lose, the US as an ally or Northern Ireland as a constituent country, it's 50/50 what one they would pick to chuck.
bsky.app/profile/aphc...
bsky.app/profile/aphc...
I do agree Bluesky is way too American right now. The relative internationalism was one of early Twitter's cool things
bsky.app/profile/aphc...
bsky.app/profile/aphc...
Right now I'm using XTwitter to keep an eye on events in Aleppo and Tehran in ways that are impossible on Bluesky. The Euro and US-centrism of this platform needs to be corrected for it to be of wider use for a lot of researchers and analysts.
January 9, 2026 at 6:08 PM
I do agree Bluesky is way too American right now. The relative internationalism was one of early Twitter's cool things
bsky.app/profile/aphc...
bsky.app/profile/aphc...
It was entirely logical. Who would want to make their livelihood dependent on extreme erratic behavior?
bsky.app/profile/aphc...
bsky.app/profile/aphc...
A Mercosur-EU shared market is post-American Transatlanticism
January 9, 2026 at 2:32 PM
It was entirely logical. Who would want to make their livelihood dependent on extreme erratic behavior?
bsky.app/profile/aphc...
bsky.app/profile/aphc...