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IMF raises growth forecasts, warns

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The International Monetary Fund, meeting in Washington, raised its global growth forecasts but warned that AI-driven market froth and US–China trade tensions risk a sudden, sharp correction.

La Repubblica
Risks from US-China tensions, IMF warns on growth and AI

According to chief economist Gourinchas, the EU must move quickly and implement the Draghi report's recommendations.

Risks from US-China tensions, IMF warns on growth and AI
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by Hakan Yilmazkuday

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Just Published: Stock market development boosts economic growth, where the positive effects are bigger for advanced economies (emerging countries) with stronger (weaker) institutions. authors.elsevier.com/sd/art...

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by International Monetary Fund

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by Paulo Gala

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by John Hogan

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www.bond.org.uk/news/2025/10...
The IMF is ideologically committed to neoliberalism despite its pronouncements on social inequality | Bond
Ahead of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank Annual meetings, which start on 13 October, The Bretton Woods Project has launched a new website analysing IMF surveillance from the last ...
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by International Monetary Fund

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by Andrea Presbitero

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The Guardian
The Guardian view on the IMF’s warning: Britain’s economy runs hot for profits, cold for pay | Editorial

Labour is misreading the economics—leaving it unable to deal with the G7’s worst inflation and flat living standards. Bloomberg’s headline said it all: “UK Faces Worst G-7 Inflation and Flat Living Standards, IMF Says.” The International Monetary Fund warns that inflation will be higher in the UK than in any other major advanced economy—including in the US, where Donald Trump’s tariffs are driving up costs for American consumers. This, while GDP growth per head crawls at 0.4%, the weakest of any major economy. Real wages have stagnated for 11 months. Meanwhile, official figures show that unemployment has climbed to 4.8%, the highest since spring 2021. Forget talk of Britain’s “upgraded growth”; the economy, under Labour, is running hot only for those collecting profits. The Joseph Rowntree Foundation (JRF) projects that by 2029 average disposable incomes will be £570 lower than today, a fall of 1.3%—the sharpest drop in living standards since records began in 1961. This isn’t a simple case of prices getting ahead of demand. What Britain faces is profit inflation: prices are rising while wages stand still. As Lord Keynes noted, this is a transfer from labour to capital - an increase in mark-ups, not in productivity. Do you have an opinion on the issues raised in this article? If you would like to submit a response of up to 300 words by email to be considered for publication in our letters section, please click here. Continue reading.

The Guardian view on the IMF’s warning: Britain’s economy runs hot for profits, cold for pay | Editorial
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by Timothy D. McBride

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Global Economic Growth Remains Sluggish as Trump’s Tariff Threats Loom www.nytimes.com/2025/10/14/b...
Global Growth Remains Sluggish as Tariff Threats Loom
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The Guardian
UK Faces Highest Inflation in the G7 This Year and Next, IMF Warns

According to the IMF's World Economic Outlook, Britain is on track to average 3.4% this year and 2.5% in 2026. The IMF warns that inflation in Britain could outpace other economies, with risks of a 'sharp correction' in US shares and overall market complacency. The world economy remains resilient despite Trump tariffs, but the outlook is dim. Consumers in the UK are expected to suffer the highest inflation in the G7 this year and next. Policymakers, gathered in Washington for the IMF's annual meetings, were told prices in Britain would rise faster in 2025 and 2026 than previously forecast

UK Faces Highest Inflation in the G7 This Year and Next, IMF Warns
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by International Monetary Fund

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by Pierre‐Olivier Gourinchas

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To secure growth, countries must focus on what works: clear trade rules, fiscal discipline, robust policy frameworks, and investments in productivity. The alternative is slower, more volatile economic activity. www.imf.org/en/Publicati...
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by Pierre‐Olivier Gourinchas

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Our WEO analysis also shows that reducing policy uncertainty and lowering tariffs could lift global output by up to 0.7% in the near term. Clear trade rules and cooperation are more critical than ever. www.imf.org/en/Publicati...
World Economic Outlook, October 2025: Global Economy in Flux, Prospects Remain Dim
The latest World Economic Outlook reports a slowdown in global growth with risks remaining tilted to the downside. As new policies slowly come to focus, adjustment to the emerging landscape should be ...
www.imf.org
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by Pierre‐Olivier Gourinchas

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Other forces are at play: AI investment is booming, echoing the dot-com era, while China's property sector struggles and fiscal pressures mount. These dynamics create a complex, uneven recovery.
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by Pierre‐Olivier Gourinchas

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pgourinchas.bsky.social
Our October WEO report is out. Global growth is expected to slow to 3.2% this year and 3.1% next year, defying fears of a sharper slowdown after the US tariff surge. Yet, this resilience masks deeper fragilities in trade, AI, and fiscal policy. imf.org/en/Blogs/Art...
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by Mariana Mazzucato

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Read our open letter ➡️ data.one.org/2025-debt-op...
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Urgent calls for debt relief as study shows health and education cuts in developing world
Influential economists want replenishment of funds and new ways to define countries in need before this week’s IMF and World Bank meetings
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by Mariana Mazzucato

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The debt crisis is a development & investment crisis. In the Global South, debt repayments crowd out investment in education, healthcare & climate resilience. We call on the World Bank & IMF to acknowledge the impacts of the global debt crisis & take action to drive inclusive & sustainable growth.
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ABC
The IMF raises its growth forecast for Spain to 2.9% in 2025, but per capita GDP will only rise by 1.6%

The International Monetary Fund has joined the array of national and international agencies that, as the year progresses, raise Spain's growth forecasts relative to initial estimates. Specifically, the IMF projects GDP will end 2025 with a year‑on‑year increase of 2.9%, four tenths above its July forecast. This reinforces the optimism of both the government and the Bank of Spain, which in September anticipated the figure at 2.6% and 2.7% respectively, with the IMF being the most optimistic. Pedro Sánchez's government has wasted little time in celebrating this result and recalling that Spain continues to lead the major advanced economies, as the projection places the euro area at a modest 1.2% (two tenths higher than in July). For 2026, the IMF estimates that Spain will grow 2.0% (+0.2 percentage points from the estimate) and the euro area 1.1% (-0.1%). However, when considering GDP per capita, which the IMF puts at 1.6% in 2025, the figures published this morning offer a reading that strengthens the arguments of those who warn that our economy advances largely thanks to immigration and tourism but not productivity, and that once these indicators begin to falter, sustaining growth will be difficult. Related News: None. The key lies in the difference between the growth rates of national wealth and wealth per capita. Relative to 2024, the IMF estimates the first will slow by six tenths and the second by nine tenths; i.e., the slowdown will be worse for the average Spaniard than in aggregate terms. As Maria Jesús Fernández, senior economist at Funcas, explains to ABC, this means “there is less pie to divide” in a context where population will continue to grow, according to IMF data. Since a country’s accounts are essentially the growth of one year divided by its population, the population data can be inferred from the difference between the estimated GDP boom and GDP per capita. Specifically, and according to the IMF, in 2025 Spain’s population will grow by 1.3%, two tenths more than in 2024. And despite this, the economy will slow its growth pace, which inevitably translates into lower wealth per capita. Still, one conclusion the expert draws is that immigration loses momentum as a driver of the economy. There are countless reasons this could be happening, among them the cyclical evolution of macroeconomics and the slowdown of tourism, which has shown sensational gains since the pandemic. As ABC explained, this summer the sector returned to growth rates around one percent in foreign visitor arrivals, bringing it closer to the results shown by the rest of the economy. As all economists do when discussing this issue, María Jesús Fernández ends up appealing to improved productivity, the only indicator with real capacity to solve this underlying imbalance in the Spanish economy, which—absent higher birth rates—makes sustaining the pension system impossible.

The IMF raises its growth forecast for Spain to 2.9% in 2025, but per capita GDP will only rise by 1.6%
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