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Adam Posen

@adamposen.bsky.social

15K followers 280 following 250 posts

President, PIIE. Globalist. Former central banker. Political economy with a policy purpose. Writes on macroeconomic policy, G7/China relations, globalization, and economies of US, UK, Germany, Japan, and PRC.

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Adam Simon Posen CBE is an American economist and President of the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE). He became PIIE president on January 1, 2013, having first joined the Institute in July 1997. .. more

Economics 94%

Political science 4%

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Reposted by Adam S. Posen, Dean Baker

Reposted by Adam S. Posen

Adam Posen @adamposen.bsky.social · 2d

Trump and Xi are both posturing ahead of their upcoming summit, but PRC/Xi is escalating - as noted by @rushdoshi.bsky.social and Lingling Wei this is because they think (rightly) Trump will back off.
*Taps the sign* (I warned y'all @foreignaffairs.com )
www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...

Trade Wars Are Easy to Lose

Beijing has escalation dominance in the U.S.-Chinese tariff fight.

www.foreignaffairs.com

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Reposted by Adam S. Posen

Peterson Institute for International Economics @piie.com · 2d

WATCH: @adamposen.bsky.social explains why the substantial inflationary impact from tariffs & deportations has been lagged but is coming.

Adam S. Posen on why inflation impact from tariffs and deportations has been lagged

YouTube video by Peterson Institute for International Economics

www.youtube.com

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Reposted by Adam S. Posen

Adam Posen @adamposen.bsky.social · 2d

New video! Why the substantial inflationary impact from tariffs and deportations has been lagged but is coming
A real world based take on the US economic forecast
Me excerpted from @piie.com Global Economic Prospects
www.piie.com/newsroom/sho...

Adam S. Posen on why inflation impact from tariffs and deportations has been lagged

Adam S. Posen explains at the Peterson Institute for International Economics Global Economic Prospects Fall 2025 event the effects of US policies like tariffs and deportations on inflation, the labor ...

www.piie.com

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Adam Posen @adamposen.bsky.social · 2d

Adam S. Posen on why inflation impact from tariffs and deportations has been lagged

www.piie.com

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Reposted by Barry Eichengreen, Adam S. Posen, Lars P. Feld , and 1 more Barry Eichengreen, Adam S. Posen, Lars P. Feld, Andrea Presbitero

Reposted by Adam S. Posen

Adam Posen @adamposen.bsky.social · 3d

Global growth holds up despite policy headwinds and rising risks - New blog by Karen Dynan
Latest global economic propsects from @piie.com

www.piie.com/blogs/realti...

Global growth holds up despite policy headwinds and rising risks

The global economy is growing more strongly than expected this year, despite rising trade tensions and high uncertainty around US economic policy. Optimism about artificial intelligence (AI), particul...

www.piie.com

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Reposted by Adam S. Posen

Peterson Institute for International Economics @piie.com · 3d

Inflation is going to be higher in the US in the news few years than most are forecasting, @adamposen.bsky.social says.

Find slides & watch the Global Economic Prospects event here: www.piie.com/events/2025/...

Why the inflation impact of deportation has been lagged

If 1 million+ migrants have left, how has production stayed up?
No increase in native or legal employment in the sectors which are known to be heavy users of migrant labor

What is going on?
McKibbin, Noland, and Hogan (2024) says impact should be big and stagflationary
Substitution of K or L not there in the data
Mismeasurement of net migrant outflows?
Over-counting/claims of total deported?
Or workers and families take time to make up their minds on a wrenching decision
Not sure that ICE really will come for them
Head underground but keep working
Employers do not have to pay more or invest – in fact can end up paying less
Difficult to decide when to leave

Actual financial conditions are more relevant than FFR

Inflation expectations are less well anchored

Recent past experience of higher inflation has a lasting impact (Gagnon and Kamin 2025)

Staggered salient price hikes are coming
Think like eggs under Biden
Beef, certain fruit and veg, musical instruments, toys…
De minimis imported goods
Some pharmaceuticals potentially
Energy depending upon the impact of AI demand
Durable goods (autos, furniture, construction inputs), though, are less salient for inflation perceptions

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Reposted by Adam S. Posen

Peterson Institute for International Economics @piie.com · 3d

@adamposen.bsky.social on gold buyers:

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https://www.ft.com/content/4eefc53c-de68-4495-b729-b028916dd645

Adam Posen of the Peterson Institute agrees that gold buyers’ are not primarily motivated by inflation:

Gold prices are being driven primarily by retail investors, enemy regimes (Russia and Iran), and some speculators. It is primarily driven by investors who fundamentally distrust the US government and fiat money. Not just inflation. In fact, gold’s value (like crypto) to these people is in large part due to being uncorrelated with US macro and government (so not US inflation and the Fed).

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Reposted by Adam S. Posen

Reposted by Arvind Subramanian