FWIW I think the latest research I saw somewhere indicated that actually wasn’t the case - given engine breaking etc the PM levels from tires and breaking isn’t that much more

Big fear for the Budget was the green transition.

✅ Heat pump funding remains.
✅ VAT remains on gas.
✅ Support for EVs extended.
✅ Renewable charges removed from electricity.
🤷🏻‍♂️ EV per-mile charge - barrier to entry as in NZ?
🤷🏻‍♂️ North Sea drilling
🤷🏻‍♂️ Fuel duty increase. U-turn likely?

Ok overall.

that's not 'he's just a cheery chap to whom nothing bad has ever happened'. that's incredible emotional discipline, to force yourself not to give in to despair. he's a grafter, is the thing, he just keeps on working. sing-songs in a Japanese prison!

I don't think we should have every scenario that we assess being a scenario where emissions go down.

We are not heading for the super high-end SSP5-85, but that does not mean emissions are following SSP2-45 as many assume.

We need to explore the uncertainties on where we are heading much more.

5/

Other points:
* The IEA should have found another name, "Reversed Policies Scenario" or "Stalled Policies Scenario"?
* Have we, at a statistical significant level, deviated from the IEA pre-Paris baseline?
* The CPS is not that different to the STEPS...

6/6

Have been saying this for ages. An as yet undetermined % of Tory voters are anxious about Farage / Reform. How they vote at the next GE could determine the outcome.

Suppose we got more good news over the next few years, which I think is perfectly possible... What we seem to have learned is that it will quite quickly come under pressure to be used on tax or spend.

Now, as a voter I can quite see that as good. But it surely isn't what these bond buyers want 3/

Facing three stakeholder groups - the gilts, the spending side, the tax side - the promise to prioritise fiscal stability has to mean that when some good news comes up, the first of these gets some priority. This week suggests it doesn't, compared to pressure on the other two 2/