I’ll be sending out an aurora alert about this now that all the models are in. Stay tuned to your email tomorrow morning. You can still sign up for the alerts: go.theauroraguy.com/alerts

There is a G3 storm watch (strong storm; Kp 7) for Nov 12 as well. Charge your camera batteries and cross your fingers for a good outcome from this event. Things look promising, but nothing is guaranteed.

All this is to say that keeping your expectations low will make sure you aren't let down if nothing happens (which could always happen!). Follow me for more updates on this event.

Make sure to charge your batteries for some potential auroral activity Tuesday and Wednesday night just to be safe, but scientists are still analyzing these events, and exact impact times are never known until we actually see them at Earth!

We may also see a "strong" (G3/Kp 7) geomagnetic storm. Right now the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center is predicting a G2/Kp/moderate storm for Nov 11-12, but this is without the second CME added into the forecast.

We may see the first impact from these two solar storms sometime late Tuesday night, but it will be a waiting game, and nothing is guaranteed. If conditions align, the aurora may be seen further equatorward than usual, perhaps even down into the central U.S. at times.

The more geomagnetic storms we see at Earth, the more accurately we can refine models and the more opportunities we have practicing mitigation strategies against adverse space weather effects. Just my $0.02.

CMEs and geomagnetic storms are a natural part of an active Sun and are nothing to worry about. This is nowhere NEAR a Carrington event, and even if we did have a "Carrington-class" CME coming to Earth, there are plans in place to make sure critical infrastructure is safe.

Please be careful where you get your space weather and aurora news from over the next 24 hours. Many grifting accounts will look to stoke fear, hype up, and exaggerate these events. I don't do that.

The HUXt model is one of my favorites for visualizing CMEs heading towards Earth, and you can learn more about how it works in a blog post I wrote: go.theauroraguy.com/huxtmodel

If you are enjoying these posts, feel free to support me by signing up for my email list. I send out tons of free content and will also send out an email tomorrow with an "aurora alert" summarizing the events for this week. go.theauroraguy.com/alerts

Be on alert for potential solar wind enhancements coinciding with CME arrivals on Nov 11-12. Make sure to convert forecast arrival times from UTC to your specific time zone. Also note that arrival time predictions have inherent uncertainty (about +/- 7 hr in most cases).

There is no way to know for sure what we will get until it reaches our L1 satellites upstream of Earth! These are like buoys sensing a storm surge before a hurricane - they will alert us when and if the CME(s) arrive and how strong the solar wind is.

Currently, we have a G2 watch issued by NOAA SWPC off of the X1.7 CME, but I have a feeling this will be upgraded to G3 for Nov 11-12 due to the new eruptions launched towards us.

Stay tuned for more information following this event, and subscribe to my email list to get my free aurora chasing e-book so you can start tracking these CMEs yourselves: go.theauroraguy.com/ebook