Vincent Ledvina
@vincentledvina.bsky.social
📷”The Aurora Guy”
🌌Space Physics Ph.D. student
📍North Pole, Alaska
🫂Participatory science, science comm.
🌀 Professional aurora chaser
👨💻Views my own
🌌Space Physics Ph.D. student
📍North Pole, Alaska
🫂Participatory science, science comm.
🌀 Professional aurora chaser
👨💻Views my own
Pinned
Tonight, we may see a strong geomagnetic storm and auroral visibility extending further equatorward into the central U.S. Let me tell you what is happening, who will see aurora and when, and some tips for catching the aurora tonight! This could potentially be a nice event! 🧵
#heliophysics #aurora
#heliophysics #aurora
Have you heard? There are TWO CMEs directed right at Earth that could cause geomagnetic storming starting tomorrow.
Here is an animation of some of these blasts coming from the Sun (center) to Earth (black dot). This comes from the HUXt model.
#heliophysics
Here is an animation of some of these blasts coming from the Sun (center) to Earth (black dot). This comes from the HUXt model.
#heliophysics
November 10, 2025 at 6:32 PM
Have you heard? There are TWO CMEs directed right at Earth that could cause geomagnetic storming starting tomorrow.
Here is an animation of some of these blasts coming from the Sun (center) to Earth (black dot). This comes from the HUXt model.
#heliophysics
Here is an animation of some of these blasts coming from the Sun (center) to Earth (black dot). This comes from the HUXt model.
#heliophysics
Here is a new model showing the two X-flare CMEs. The first blast is the X1.7; second, X1.2. Both are directed at Earth and may hit in quick succession with effects starting tomorrow (Tuesday) night UT. I think G2-G3 conditions are possible with this 1-2 punch, but we'll see!
November 10, 2025 at 6:24 PM
Here is a new model showing the two X-flare CMEs. The first blast is the X1.7; second, X1.2. Both are directed at Earth and may hit in quick succession with effects starting tomorrow (Tuesday) night UT. I think G2-G3 conditions are possible with this 1-2 punch, but we'll see!
Here is the current HUXt model showing two direct hits! The X1.7 CME is projected to impact around Nov 12 at 4 UT. The X1.2 CME is projected to impact around Nov 12 at 15 UT. Please note these are a bit later than the NASA/NOAA predictions. Things could really heat up this week!
#heliophysics
#heliophysics
November 10, 2025 at 6:12 PM
Here is the current HUXt model showing two direct hits! The X1.7 CME is projected to impact around Nov 12 at 4 UT. The X1.2 CME is projected to impact around Nov 12 at 15 UT. Please note these are a bit later than the NASA/NOAA predictions. Things could really heat up this week!
#heliophysics
#heliophysics
Here is the preliminary NASA M2M run for the X1.2 CME. Earth may see a flank impact around Nov 12 at 6 UT. I think G2-G3 storming is possible this week as we may see the X1.7 CME impact around Nov 11 midday UT. This 1-2 punch could drive extended periods of geomagnetic activity.
#heliophysics
#heliophysics
November 10, 2025 at 3:12 PM
Here is the preliminary NASA M2M run for the X1.2 CME. Earth may see a flank impact around Nov 12 at 6 UT. I think G2-G3 storming is possible this week as we may see the X1.7 CME impact around Nov 11 midday UT. This 1-2 punch could drive extended periods of geomagnetic activity.
#heliophysics
#heliophysics
Meanwhile in Alaska… WOW! Big substorm just occurred over Fairbanks cutting through the large moon. It’s forecasted to be clear for quite some time there, so I can’t wait to get back up tonight in anticipation of a hopefully active week of aurora.
November 10, 2025 at 1:29 PM
Meanwhile in Alaska… WOW! Big substorm just occurred over Fairbanks cutting through the large moon. It’s forecasted to be clear for quite some time there, so I can’t wait to get back up tonight in anticipation of a hopefully active week of aurora.
Here is the latest SWPC graphic regarding the recent X1.2 flare from AR 4274. Again, X-flares are not unusual around solar maximum, and Earth-directed CMEs of this caliber are not "dangerous." This is not a Carrington-class event by ANY means.
November 10, 2025 at 12:51 PM
Here is the latest SWPC graphic regarding the recent X1.2 flare from AR 4274. Again, X-flares are not unusual around solar maximum, and Earth-directed CMEs of this caliber are not "dangerous." This is not a Carrington-class event by ANY means.
The X1.2 CME has a lot of things going for it to produce a decent geomagnetic storm at Earth, including a full halo in coronagraph imagery, but I'm waiting to see the models to get a better idea of what we're dealing with. Let's cross our fingers and wait for the analysis.
November 10, 2025 at 12:41 PM
The X1.2 CME has a lot of things going for it to produce a decent geomagnetic storm at Earth, including a full halo in coronagraph imagery, but I'm waiting to see the models to get a better idea of what we're dealing with. Let's cross our fingers and wait for the analysis.
Direct hit! A beautiful, full-halo CME is now leaving the Sun following the X1.2 flare, and it's heading right for us. We'll have to see what the models think about this one, but we now have two Earth-directed CMEs coming at us and a good chance for geomagnetic storms Nov 11-12.
November 10, 2025 at 12:26 PM
Direct hit! A beautiful, full-halo CME is now leaving the Sun following the X1.2 flare, and it's heading right for us. We'll have to see what the models think about this one, but we now have two Earth-directed CMEs coming at us and a good chance for geomagnetic storms Nov 11-12.
Happening now: X1.2 flare from AR 4274. A large EUV blast wave is seen propagating out through the Sun’s atmosphere in this video, indicating a wide CME with an Earth-directed component. We’ll have to wait for more images to draw further conclusions, but this looks promising!
#heliophysics
#heliophysics
November 10, 2025 at 12:22 PM
Happening now: X1.2 flare from AR 4274. A large EUV blast wave is seen propagating out through the Sun’s atmosphere in this video, indicating a wide CME with an Earth-directed component. We’ll have to wait for more images to draw further conclusions, but this looks promising!
#heliophysics
#heliophysics
It's currently Sunday Nov 9 at around 9:30 pm CST/Nov 10 3:30 am UTC. There is supposed to be a CME impact any minute, but it is late. Maybe it won't arrive or is just running behind schedule ;)
November 10, 2025 at 3:33 AM
It's currently Sunday Nov 9 at around 9:30 pm CST/Nov 10 3:30 am UTC. There is supposed to be a CME impact any minute, but it is late. Maybe it won't arrive or is just running behind schedule ;)
I had a great time presenting at the aurora summit this weekend—an introduction to substorms, how to forecast them, and practical tips.
I’ll be uploading the talk to my website and will have everything easily available within the next few weeks through the Aurora Summit page.
I’ll be uploading the talk to my website and will have everything easily available within the next few weeks through the Aurora Summit page.
November 10, 2025 at 3:25 AM
I had a great time presenting at the aurora summit this weekend—an introduction to substorms, how to forecast them, and practical tips.
I’ll be uploading the talk to my website and will have everything easily available within the next few weeks through the Aurora Summit page.
I’ll be uploading the talk to my website and will have everything easily available within the next few weeks through the Aurora Summit page.
We are seeing a surge in sunspots and major flare probability on the Sun! Look at how peppered the Earth-facing disk is right now, dominated by AR 4274 which is transiting the Earth-strike zine. It is in a perfect spot to launch CMEs directed towards us, but will it? Let's find out!
November 10, 2025 at 1:38 AM
We are seeing a surge in sunspots and major flare probability on the Sun! Look at how peppered the Earth-facing disk is right now, dominated by AR 4274 which is transiting the Earth-strike zine. It is in a perfect spot to launch CMEs directed towards us, but will it? Let's find out!
Check out all the CMEs in the HUXt model! Some of them have come and gone, but that big hump around 11-11 is the one we are looking at! HUXt has a significant departure from NASA and NOAA models with impact around Nov 11 at 23 UT. The impact probability is 99.2%. Let's see what happens.
November 9, 2025 at 11:40 PM
Check out all the CMEs in the HUXt model! Some of them have come and gone, but that big hump around 11-11 is the one we are looking at! HUXt has a significant departure from NASA and NOAA models with impact around Nov 11 at 23 UT. The impact probability is 99.2%. Let's see what happens.
Here is the NASA M2M model of the X1.7 CME. It's a pretty good hit, actually! Impact is expected on Nov 11th around 16 UT +/- 7 hr. The timing is close to NOAA SWPC which predicts arrival around 14 UT. Maybe G1-G2 conditions are possible wth this storm, but we'll see at L1.
November 9, 2025 at 11:03 PM
Here is the NASA M2M model of the X1.7 CME. It's a pretty good hit, actually! Impact is expected on Nov 11th around 16 UT +/- 7 hr. The timing is close to NOAA SWPC which predicts arrival around 14 UT. Maybe G1-G2 conditions are possible wth this storm, but we'll see at L1.
HEADS UP! We just had an X1.7 flare from AR 4274 which is directly facing Earth! There is a complex, hull halo CME on the way with a clear northward propagation bias. Models will be important to see how much of this is actually coming at us. I’ll post later with more updates.
November 9, 2025 at 12:50 PM
HEADS UP! We just had an X1.7 flare from AR 4274 which is directly facing Earth! There is a complex, hull halo CME on the way with a clear northward propagation bias. Models will be important to see how much of this is actually coming at us. I’ll post later with more updates.
Solar wind data are still very elevated, and more substorms are possible tonight with naked-eye auroral displays for the northern tier of the U.S.
November 8, 2025 at 5:41 AM
Solar wind data are still very elevated, and more substorms are possible tonight with naked-eye auroral displays for the northern tier of the U.S.
Who saw the amazing auroral beads tonight on the Ely, MN webcam? Does anyone have pics of it?
go.theauroraguy.com/webcams
go.theauroraguy.com/webcams
November 8, 2025 at 4:05 AM
Who saw the amazing auroral beads tonight on the Ely, MN webcam? Does anyone have pics of it?
go.theauroraguy.com/webcams
go.theauroraguy.com/webcams
The aurora from North Dakota looks pretty decent right now! Lots of green on the webcam.
go.theauroraguy.com/webcams
go.theauroraguy.com/webcams
November 8, 2025 at 3:47 AM
The aurora from North Dakota looks pretty decent right now! Lots of green on the webcam.
go.theauroraguy.com/webcams
go.theauroraguy.com/webcams
Bay Port, MI there is aurora to your north right now! A break in the clouds is coming. Head out and take a peek if you can if you're above the 45th parallel! Conditions look great tonight.
go.theauroraguy.com/webcams
go.theauroraguy.com/webcams
November 8, 2025 at 3:38 AM
Bay Port, MI there is aurora to your north right now! A break in the clouds is coming. Head out and take a peek if you can if you're above the 45th parallel! Conditions look great tonight.
go.theauroraguy.com/webcams
go.theauroraguy.com/webcams
Woohoo! Aurora is naked-eye visible through a break in the clouds here in Bayfield, WI!
November 8, 2025 at 3:34 AM
Woohoo! Aurora is naked-eye visible through a break in the clouds here in Bayfield, WI!
First night at the aurora summit! Come say hi if you’re here. I also have free brochures and other fun things in the front. I’ll be on a panel tonight and will present on substorms tomorrow.
November 8, 2025 at 1:08 AM
First night at the aurora summit! Come say hi if you’re here. I also have free brochures and other fun things in the front. I’ll be on a panel tonight and will present on substorms tomorrow.
A CME has arrived! There is a sharp spike in magnetic field data, and Bt is near 20 nT currently. Bz is trending negative, but it may oscillate around since the CME has just impacted. We'll see if conditions get more intense, but for now, mid-latitude chasers should paying attention now.
November 7, 2025 at 5:38 AM
A CME has arrived! There is a sharp spike in magnetic field data, and Bt is near 20 nT currently. Bz is trending negative, but it may oscillate around since the CME has just impacted. We'll see if conditions get more intense, but for now, mid-latitude chasers should paying attention now.
The CME is here!
November 7, 2025 at 5:04 AM
The CME is here!
No CME, no problem! Solar wind data are still good enough for mid-latitude activity, although the moon will certainly be a factor in your viewing experience. Try to prioritize your timing to substorms to catch naked-eye displays.
go.theauroraguy.com/substorm
go.theauroraguy.com/substorm
November 7, 2025 at 2:55 AM
No CME, no problem! Solar wind data are still good enough for mid-latitude activity, although the moon will certainly be a factor in your viewing experience. Try to prioritize your timing to substorms to catch naked-eye displays.
go.theauroraguy.com/substorm
go.theauroraguy.com/substorm
Reposted by Vincent Ledvina
