Vincent Ledvina
@vincentledvina.bsky.social
16K followers 120 following 3K posts
📷”The Aurora Guy” 🌌Space Physics Ph.D. student 📍North Pole, Alaska 🫂Participatory science, science comm. 🌀 Professional aurora chaser 👨‍💻Views my own
Posts Media Videos Starter Packs
Pinned
vincentledvina.bsky.social
What are the best cameras and lenses for aurora photography? How about at different price points? Let's break it down, but first, read my blog article about it: theauroraguy.com/blogs/blog/m...

(photo by Face the Outdoors)
My Top Camera Gear Recommendations for Aurora Photography
How to choose the best camera and lens for aurora photography. The best lenses and cameras at budget-friendly pricepoints
theauroraguy.com
vincentledvina.bsky.social
A better view now that SDO AIA data have loaded in shows what looks like a big portion of this CME going north plus a secondary eruption heading south. There's some pretty broad field line movement to the east and west along with a sympathetic flare/eruption from AR 4248.
vincentledvina.bsky.social
Nice color here in North Pole, Alaska right now.
vincentledvina.bsky.social
Watch the development of AR 4248 in these photospheric images.

This movie spans about three days (2025-10-10 to 2025-10-13) with one frame every 15 minutes.

Really cool to see this. AR 2428 harbors potential for M-class flares and a slight possibility for an X-class flare.

#heliophysics
vincentledvina.bsky.social
AR 4246 is growing larger and more complex and has been the site of a few eruptive flares over the last 24 hours. It could generate more Earth-directed CMEs at any point and is a region to watch closely.

Flare probabilities:
C: 60% M: 15% X: 05%
vincentledvina.bsky.social
We are in a substorm growth phase over Fairbanks and may see expansion soon due to -Bz really stirring things up! The aurora is almost filling the sky with naked-eye greens (at least to my eye) now visible with bright auroral forms.

go.theauroraguy.com/webcams
vincentledvina.bsky.social
The Awesome Auroras calendar under some awesome auroras right now over my house in North Pole, Alaska. I had to 😅
vincentledvina.bsky.social
AR 4248 + AR 4250 (little spot to the left/east) are seen here with the Earth for scale in a recent SDO AIA HMI continuum image. This region is still growing and possesses a Beta-Gamma class magnetic field.

Flare probabilities today:
C: 60% M: 15% X: 05%

#heliophysics
vincentledvina.bsky.social
It looks like there are multiple eruptions happening simultaneously, so this might be a hard event to analyze until we see what ends up in ST-A COR2 and especially LASCO/CCOR coronagraph data. The main CME is from AR 4246, but there are other lesser dimmings, too.

#heliophysics
vincentledvina.bsky.social
DEVELOPING: A CME is seen leaving the vicinity of AR 2426 during this ongoing long-duration M1.92 flare. These are just the first few frames, and it looks like a large part of the Sun's atmosphere is lifting away. We need more time to analyze this event, so stay tuned!
vincentledvina.bsky.social
M1.92 flare happening right now from AR 2426 which is near the center of the Earth-facing disk. There is a possibility for an Earth-directed CME to be launched with this event. Stay tuned...
vincentledvina.bsky.social
I don't anticipate much from these effects individually, but combined with a forecasted CIR+HSS, we could see enhanced geomagnetic activity later this week. Let's see what happens. Like always, L1 or bust!
vincentledvina.bsky.social
The NOAA ENLIL model is predicting a couple CME glancing blows starting around midnight on Oct 16 UTC. This is Wednesday night for North America... potential for G1-G2 conditions if the CME effects combine well with a forecasted CIR arrival around the same time.
vincentledvina.bsky.social
Aurora already visible at 8 pm? Yep. Time to brew a cup, because it’s going to be a LONG night!
vincentledvina.bsky.social
A faint, auroral arc is now visible low on the northern horizon near Fairbanks, Alaska. The bottom edge of this all-sky camera is the northern horizon. It is not fully dark, and aurora is already seen. We should have a great night.

go.theauroraguy.com/webcams
vincentledvina.bsky.social
Wow! Yellowknife is absolutely exploding tonight with aurora, and it's only 9:30 pm there. Fairbanks, get ready!

go.theauroraguy.com/webcams
vincentledvina.bsky.social
Aurora is now visible low on the northern horizon from Maine. Nice! Aurora chasers above the 45th parallel tonight should be PANTS ON for at the least, horizon activity. During substorms, the aurora may be more visible from lower latitudes.
vincentledvina.bsky.social
Nice sunset in Maine now. All eyes on this webcam as it gets dark to see what kind of aurora will appear on the northern horizon. Bz has been variable recently. 30 minutes of south Bz could really pump up the aurora with speeds > 700 km/s.

go.theauroraguy.com/webcams
vincentledvina.bsky.social
Yikes… don’t expect much from the CME this morning according to NASA M2M! Might have a love tap around 10-15 at 18 UT… worth keeping in the back of your mind at the most. Oh well!
vincentledvina.bsky.social
Scandinavia had an incredible showing of aurora tonight. Check out the views earlier!

go.theauroraguy.com/webcams
vincentledvina.bsky.social
Solar wind data right now shows a classic signature of a high-speed stream: Bt around 5-10 nT, variable Bz, and speeds >600 km/s. This is setting the stage for some brief mid-latitude shows over Europe tonight. We may see the same later over North America.
vincentledvina.bsky.social
We're seeing G1 storm-levels of geomagnetic activity today due to the high-speed stream and some variable Bz. We may see some mid-latitude aurora tonight above the 45th parallel, best-visible during substorm times.
vincentledvina.bsky.social
Northern lights are currently visible in Strezhevoy, Russia from the same geomagnetic latitude as the Twin Cities, MN. We could have a similar showing tonight in the Lower 48 if solar wind conditions stay the same.

theauroraguy.com/pages/webcams